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I agree chicken investor. The us is just waiting for china to misstep and chevron will drill it with us battleships protecting the ph economic zone, which I amost prefer, but sit to time constraints I'd rather this happen quickly before there's possibility for dilution again
You need to read the article again goforthebet. The clearly give their own assessment that diterte is just doing political posturing and balancing his overfriendly words and love for China from previous statements. He still wants to make the deal with china.
When you have the framework contract people working hard to bring this into law, and you also have pxp hitting new 5 month highs , the actions speak louder than a few sentences, always
Yup. I wish it was on stronger volume but I'll take the new multimonth 5 month high.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/duterte-hits-out-at-beijing-stepping-back-from-pro-china-stance
It's ok that your Canadian broker never heard of Fecof. They are simply a holding company with nothing goin on for the last 8 years.
But jus like mutual funds that go up when their holding rise in value. So will Fecof.
There must be news releases under the Fecof symbol when these deals are done!! Anything less will be unacceptable!
Pxp flirting with recent 3 month highs.
Keep in mind. The market in pse. Will be closed 8/21. Arroyo day or some foolish holiday like that. Just means Wednesday will be strong if there more positive articles flooding in. September couldn't happen soon enough for me. First time I've been wishing a summer to end so quickly as this one. Good luck all. Or like ceytano does. Start praying as part of your strategy. Lol
I don't know the exact date , but rumor has it if you wish upon a falling star it comes true . So keep wishing. Sooner or later we'll catch a break. I wish ??
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2159511/how-resource-cooperation-can-be-win-win-china-and%3famp=1
I share the opinion that the recent involvement in the South China Sea (thank you president trump/ no thank obamas failed asian pivot) by the west , It seems more likely that china will be motivated to work together with its neighbors in the sea rather than try to take the entire thing.
At one point you had me asking. " what is he taking about. There's news everyday about this deal!!"
But if you're talking about having that news released under the Fecof stock symbol specifically then yes I would agree!!
If they announce the framework contract and don't put it under the fecof ticker symbol press release we should make a major stink about it as it will be obvious at that point that they want this under followed so they can purchase it cheaper. We should demand a news release even in advance of the deal being signed in 6 weeks or less. They should know we are into them and are organized and serious.
Feel free to write them and demanding that when this contract gets signed they better give this stock the proper news release for the exposure necessary to let it move higher!!! Last news release was when they diluted it back to back. Disgraceful
You probably saw the us energy informations agency report which is a legitimate us agency and not just a play on words like federal express or federal reserve bank.
This is govt agency which studies energy reserves around the world said the find is as much as Mexico and second to Saudi Arabia, although harder to get to and that a great deal of it is mostly in the reed bank. Just google us energy dept informations and the reed bank .
Never mind. I did it myself. Here's the link
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rappler.com/business/21460-reed-bank-holds-untapped-riches-us-agency
To be fair it says up to 190 tcf in gas in all of South China Sea. In Russia they have over 5000 tcf. But Russia is huge and has sanctions. Maybe now it makes sense why Russia needed Crimea. To export their own liquified gas one day among other strategic necessities.
Most of us on this board estimate they have 9 mos to 1.5 yrs before they run out of cash and give pxp energy another reason to exploit them once again and dilute their stock again. Their burn rate was like 300 k or so a year recently I think .
Also. When it's china who comes out with statements in the future declaring that "yes, we accept a 60:40 split to pass their constitutional approval". And "yes we agree to the framework, let's sign and work on the actual contract and drill a sample". That is when I will bring my odds to 85% getting done. The sample/drilling being positive would be making it 95%. Just my opinion. . When the damn aggressor is the one making the positive statements on getting this deal done then it's truly more likely .
I think the recent article as posted just here today with. Ceytano putting a ph China group together is actually very encouraging. I would have thought they would wait for anti China sentiment to calm down some more as the majority of ph citizens were polled as against this..... but luckily for us it's pushing forward because Fecof is running out of cash unlike pxp or apx who can wait much longer.
My guess. And I do mean "guess". If I was a bookmaker I'd set the odds of this getting done at 70% right now. Still lots can go wrong but the odds are improving a lot after today which explains why pxp is up 50% in one week.or so.
Good luck to us all, sounds like we're getting back on track. Would be nice to meet you all at a ph gettogether if we all got it rich in 2 years or less. But too early to. Elebrate just yet.
I make it move like that myself when I feel like it.
I made it move about that much or higher last week on a 40 dollar purchase just because I wanted to see my account t close up for the week. No big deal really. A little window dressing doesn't hurt. Most of this stockntrades on perception anyway. , at least nowadays, until a real deal is signed and executed
I make it move like that myself when I feel like it.
I made it move about that much or higher last week on a 40 dollar purchase just because I wanted to see my account t close up for the week. No big deal really. A little window dressing doesn't hurt. Most of this stockntrades on perception anyway. , at least nowadays, until a real deal is signed and executed
2 recent articles that may or may not offer insight. Always biased to a point. I don't live in the philipines so I don't really know. I would welcome a multi national contract in sc72 that can include China and American companies together. Malampaya had 2 companies as well. If China doesn't like it they can talk to the us military , the U.K. An Australian navies. That's how duterte should handle this and speed up the process of that monkey had half a brain. The idea that they can't win a war with China, and ignoring the fact that they can make this a multinational. And United Nations affair just proves that duterte is more of a fool than he is a hero. Manny. MVP also wanted to make this multinational 5 years ago. That's how you keep the nasty Chinese commies in check. That's how you enforce the in ruling. By including the biggest nations to back you up on hats rightfully yours they international law which the damn Chinese agreed to decades ago and have taken advantage of everybody with. We created the giant, its time to cut her down to size. They never were a true match for American engenuity driven by real democratic freedom. Time to slap her down.
Just my opinion.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-01/progress-in-sea-feud-koreas-stir-asean-though-rifts-pester
https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/us-makes-up-some-lost-diplomatic-ground-over-south-china-sea/
I must admit that's pretty significant. I take that as a better sign than just ceytano a remarks about the contract "format" being ready for review in 1 or 2 months. It could have been those remarks that moved the stock but it might be more significant behind the curtain.
The fact that apex also moved 11% higher on volume that is 10X the average monthly volume is equally significant!! Giving apex a multi month high too.
I will be looking for high volume moves as a bigger sign than any useless press releases without significant action.
Ps. I did some window dressing today for a measly 40 bucks. Don't get excited that I easily made it move higher on chump change . It can go down even easier than that.
Just because I felt like it. The lesson here is that it's all about the volume behind big price moves. We don't exactly have the volume here which will only come from a whale or a financial institution. Maybe if Irish had connections he can get a big firm to buy a huge stake. Get a seat on the board of directors and offer a cash buyout of sorts for the entire company in which case it could restrict pxp from offering a pathetic service m of 2 pennies to buy this entire company out. Just a thought
Why is it strange?? Nobody follows this stock but us here on this board!!
China really put serious doubt, anxiety and mistrust when they kept doing the crap that they always do. They say one thing and do another. They have left this anti china atmosphere in philipines that is totally expected in my eyes. The damn commies could have slam dunked this but they are too aggressive for their own good. This stock won't see any progress until the atmosphere greatly improves with positive action and not just empty talk. I am still hopeful but not at all as I was when ceytano first met with China and said "rapid progress " in 3 months. Always empty promises. This stock needs china to step up quickly and say yes. We will do 60/40. Let's do it now!!! Where do we sign? Let's drill tomorrow!!! And secondly, the proper media coverage for fecof and not just for pxp energy. I'll stay hopeful but I won't hold my breath. If it happens it will change my future greatly but I'm already considering it a huge speculation . We need to see positive action here. There are so many is stocks to purchas instead of speculating just on this. That's why the volume is zero. Consider yourselves lucky there isn't a major sellof in the millions of shares. That's the most hopeful sign for now until action happens. I give Fecof a 50/50 shot with time running out. Apex is a safer hold as they won't need to liquidate shares in a year or 2.
I have my shares too in E*TRADE Not the cheapest trades. But whatever ....it works
While everyone is expecting clarification and more promises, Don't be surprised if such a touchy issue as the south china sea and specifically the reed bank are just slightly touched upon or even brushed aside, for at least anti china sentiment to subside and so this can be anounced with better fanfare.
It could also be China's strategy to keep the reed bank tied up from development as they already have, and when those loans are not paid off they can demand or simply take the reed bank as collateral. I don't think it's that but it's not below the dirty Chinese govt. to consider that despite saying the opposite. That's why demanding a contract be signed or finding an international art et like USA. Australia U.K. To drill it would be the wise way to go as China would be ill fated to start world war 3 . Over the reed bank..
Think of this as a chess match. Consider human behavior. Be practical and keep hope out of the analysis picture as to be realistic. This will drag a bit but it's not dead. Thanks to trump showing balls in s china sea, it's not dead. duterte should be kissing trumps balls. I know it's disgusting to visualize but I'm just saying.
50:50 chance this gets done the way it's set up to be and about 65:35 chance it gets done at all with an extended time frame , which would be lousy for fecof if it drags on. Variables change the odds with every chess move. So does this !!!
Good luck to us all.
That's great Eugene. What broker did you use?
Yes. I hope fecof closes up .12 cents like pxp' too. Ending the week
At .14 cents would be awesome.
I would take .75 this week. , but if it's ever revealed that we do in fact have 15tcf in there and the Chinese threat is eliminated because they are either working with us or a multinational is drilling it and putting China's invasion to the test , then I'd hold out for 3 or 4 bucks. It's all relative.
Your confidence is refreshing. There's still risk involved that this deal with china doesn't get done if relations worsen or if duterte is forced to resign in the future. Those are big If. The market cap for 5% of this field is definitely worth the risk in a speculative play that looked much better 3 months ago but is still alive and well.
If the China deal doesn't happen then there can always be a multinational player willing to do this with the newfound support of a real American president willing to defend the waters so ph can drill in their own sovereign waters . The issue is a question of time.
Also if we all added just a little each day it would keep this market cap from being decimated and sparking fear in this investment . A couple hundred a week would do it. Let's not give pxp the opportunity to scoop in and buy us out for .015. That's all I'm saying. This deal is still alive and it needs to be drilled one way or another.
Japanese press
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/06/19/commentary/world-commentary/trump-losing-south-china-sea/#.WypCrkEpCEc
Maybe some of this negative criticism from someone like Japan will invoke more action by the trump administration.
South China Sea is a bigger deal than North Korea in my opinion. For flow of trade, for sovereignties, for oil and gas, for americas own personal interests, and my personal interests too.
Hey Irish.... we got 20 pence away from your " worry " mark for pxp. Pxp is at 11 now
I don't have a set number myself because I know that if a technical person dictator breaks down, but a contract is progressed aweek or two later. The news will always trump the technical indicator.
Man. Why is it when Duterte talks it sounds like a child's jibbberish. How was this guy ever a lawyer the way he explains that crap I really miss their last administration.
But yeah, he does bring up his hopes of peace with China for still drilling. I wonder when he says "when we dig or anybody else" if he means he's fine doing this without china if the world community puts them in check.
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/06/19/1825891/duterte-wants-china-out-west-philippine-sea-no-war
This is gopeful to. It for gods sake, I'd like to see some actions taking and not just hopes all the time.
Somewhat hopeful if you can trust the words of a Chinese embassy for
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.kansas.com/news/business/article213366119.html
This article must be coming from anti duterte camp. Justice Carpio already said he wouldn't approve joint drilling with china, mostly because his legacy is tied to The Hague ruling which his team won. Carpio believes doing a joint with China invalidates the arbitration award he worked so hard to win. Duterte found a legal document or law allowing him to make such a deal without the justices approval. That they only need to be notified. Not agreed to by the justices or courts.
Carpio isn't the guy to talk to on these matters. The army or navy are who duterte needs to be listening to. And when China takes yet another reef by reef and harasses his armed forces like the weaklings that they are, Duterte needs to stop covering it up like the true coward that he is. He instead needs to shout it out loud for the international community which he has pushed away, would sympathize and recognize that the United Nations laws are being broken and that an invasion is going on inch by inch. He can get international sympathy and those French British and American fleets passing by can park in front of those reefs for a week or so and make a clear statement. Duterte was hypnotized by the carrot on a stick and promises yet unfulfilled and fears calling out china publicly in fear of losing loans that are not even guaranteed to receive yet.
The thing that can clear things up is a framework contract that also doubles as a treaty. There are already international laws that should be respected but the unclos are just a little bit vague and there is where china is trying to take advantage, and also why the international community was hoping they would work this out together between them, which was naive since it's obvious that china would easily be the successful aggressor by just taking what they want with their mythology. As if Chinese boats were the only ones that fished those islands in the past ancient history. A framework would reinforce that these Chinese criminals agree not to encroach another inch of ph sovereignty. Catch 22. At this point the actions of china are the same reasons duterte senators are losing the desire to support this. Duterte could do this without his senate but then he risks taking all the blame if it doesn't work out and he risks getting impeached. Maybe hung from a tree and pissed on for loving xi and china that effing much. For someone who use to be a lawyer he really has a big mouth and small brain. I'd hate to get in legal trouble in the ph of he's one of their best. Sheesh!!
I'm still optimistic not because of that idiot duterte but because trump and the international community is finally showing up at the South China Sea . I'm optimistic that Vietnam is at least protesting and talking tough unlike dutertea silence. I'd say that certainty of this deal has dropped from 80% to more like 65-70%. Still good odds on something that can return 1000% quickly. Hopefully positive developments happen and not just with Ceytano strategy of prayer. Hopefully the foolishly aggressive Chinese will realize that more gets done with diplomacy and sharing. Especially sharing something that wasn't theirs to begin with. If China wants war then let's give it to them. Japan survived hiroshima. Just my opinion. Invest responsibly.
It is getting close to the 3 months originally discussed about completing framework but this timeframe looks to me more clearly that it will not be honored . If China wasn't so damn aggressive. Greedy and living every single time , then maybe the philipino people would not have turned on the deal
And on duterte for cozying up with such liars who have undoubtedly violated their sovereignty on so many occasions. Imagine someone going into your backyard. Saying it's their backyard but if you play nice they might let you play in It sometime. This deal was well on it. Way but the damn commies are their own worst enemies and instead of ever admitting blame on themselves they act "insulted" and accuse the other. Their stupid word play and games will lead to a good slap In The face in the way of a war someday. If Russia ever became the true democracy they were meant to be then china would be in a strategic hard place right now. Surrounded. Y India and Japan. . Time to let Japan go nuclear.
I'm not giving up on this deal but the success probability has weakened an been postponed once again on this difficult stock. I can't even find them talking about where they are with these talks recently. Last I heard ceytano was saying it was still alive but he was losing support from senators . " I have to explain to China that some people are upset". Not a direct quote but it's the Just of it.
If only Barack the loser had done something earlier in the for of protection of ph islands during the previous administration this would have lead china to make this deal 5 years ago or ph on it own. Better late then never that trump gets in loved. But to a limited degree with this anti American garbage Duterte who would rather kiss China's butt.
If I sound frustrated , I simply am . The deal is not over but we took a wrong turn and it's mostly due to the effi g commies who disregard everyone else, lie about actions" we will t militarize any more islands". Etc
If these fools
Stray away from globalization and go with imperialism,they will implode their economy.
What is needed now is an action by china that shows they are not the invader they've shown to be. A framework or treaty in respects to ph sovereignty or this deal is in jeopardy once again. It's in their best interest to sign something quickly to prove they are not invading but protecting instead. Turning the tide of anti duterte voters is a bit more difficult. A lot of talk about duterte being a traitor and about anti china protests lately. Adds another 3 months to calm the fears. Exactly what I feared about these damn commie Chinese When framework was first anounced. Reds are their own worst enemy.
Anyways. Happy Father's Day and hopefully this clears up sooner than later.
I've made calculations as well similar to Irish but there's som many variables there's no guarantees. If we are allowed to rise and profit like pxp , we can hit amazing numbers if we receive annual dividends from sc72. But if it's locked in equity under Forum then we don't know what we will receive in stock market price as the speculation will be more vague. An if the price lingers at 10 or so, pxp can just pay a 20% premium from market price and do a b uyout since they control majority shares anyway. Having said that, it doesn't mean you won't receive further appreciation if we get pxp shares instead. And if you get cash and apex is still trading low you can consider buying that. Or look at zachs research and buy some small caps they recommend and you'll do fine long term. I'm still kicking myself for taking short term profits in Netflix 8 yrs ago.
If they (fecof) receive cash revenue as an annual dividend , as some agreements are formulated then yes indeed they could at that point justify a p.e. Valuation with a steady stream of revenue
If though, which may be more likely, Forum the privately held company co trolled by pxp, is the only entity receiving their portion of cash revenues from sc72, then Fecof will be looked at as a holding company only, similar to how mutual funds are evaluated with nav valuations, etc. furthermore forum won't have a p.e. Because it's private with hidden value. Pxp would have to once again apply for forum to trade publicly and hopefully not on that worthless aim market they had it on. Hopefully it'll go on the pink sheets and go to nasdaq soon after. Or even directly as a nasdaq listing. Pxp could and should go this route to unlock the value for forum and have their own equity rise in return. If they decide to put it off indefinitely they will put fecof at risk of running out of cash again in 2 years and an excuse to steal their shares again. That's why I'm alarmist in keeping these scumbags accountable . Demand that fecof under the watch of Pxp also gets a line of credit, not just Forum who has a line of credit. It's a criminal setup to have appointed 3 guys who do absolutely nothing for this holding company. When forum looked worthless sitting idle 3 yrs ago they used a line of credit to pursue drilling in Peru. We had received nothing from pxp's parent which is also one of mannys companies. First pacific. They cut the checks to keep things going. It's ultimately their strategy. We should write them too . We write the mayor. And we write the governor but we are forgetting to go directly to the president.
Only because fecof doesn't have the securities structure of most publicly traded companies it seems less likely that will be allowed to run to 50 cents or even if it's possible to reach that without publicity of what they have and a support structure for them to be evaluated fairly without future scam dilution like we've seen in the past. This makes me more likely to consider a buyout for pxp shares at a reasonable trade instead of being at the whims of these criminals. I envy apx who is not at the control of Pxp or fpafy.
A side note is that the ph market limits open capitalizing by restricting foreign ownership to a set limit for companies like Pxp. And apx. If they list forum in nasdaq it would be problem solved.
I highly respect your words, thoughts and actions. I don't mean to butt heads or cal you out in anyway.
I think there are a few uncertainties here and other probabilities by considering past occurrences.
How pxp values forum holdings may very well be different this time around especially if the well is verified with definite reserves as opposed to its current classification. A contract and actual processing makes this a solid well. They may have to change their current valuation model as well or may not. That's uncertain. But the value of sc72 would certainly change after a drill and confirmation.
If all they do is survey again and not drill, this will be dejavu all over again and they will be diluting fecof 5 years later. Which is exactly why we got diluted in the first place. Fecofs share of expenses to raise capital for unpaid debts in Forum.
As far as the earnings go related to p.e. Ratios. Fec resources is a "holding company" and not a driller. If fecof gets a one time cash investment it is a "special" classification and not considered recurring earnings from operations and therefore nobody would pay a high pe even if they were registered as an oil company. I use to win nidof petroleum in the same area and their p.e. Was as low as 5 or 6..
Saving grace in fecof is that Forum won't need to dilute or subscribe anytime soon or anymore , as their debts could be on the books indefinitely once their value increases from a successful drilling and equity holding. They will obviously pay down whatever debt with cash rolling in and most expenses would be on cnooc as the JV driller, in regards to future expenses /drilling.
I assume that the profits would be split among the consortium as dividends, like how ph gets a check every year. Then again it might just be tied up only in forums account in which case pxp would have to make Forum public again to realize its true worth by the market and higher p.e.'s for Forum. Pxp can also keep them private and just hope to have a higher P/E ratio themselves as forums true value is hidden and complicated for people to figure out.
Buy outs. My experience in this part of the world, they won't offer much more then current market prices that's why it's very important we get that price up ourselves. Even if we have to window dress itwith a few hundred shares at the end of closing. I've done that a few times myself in the 3's and 4's. They sometimes average the closing price for the last month and give a slight premium based on that. Hopefully we verify confirm first. Have fecof trade around 10 before they come to us with a buyout. I would take pxp shares if so or just use my cash to diversify. Emerging markets are very hot now and this isn't the only game in town. Even some small nasdaq stocks I followed shot up 50 or 100% recently (zuo , z, zscaler). Ironically they were all z's.
Summary: we must have a united voice for fecof so we don't get cheated and we should send emails reminding them that they are being closely watched and threatened with sec investigation if they try to scam our shares for cheap again. We should get the price higher by doing self promotion ourselves. Maybe a newsletter that takes recommendations rather than paid promotions. After all this is a great speculative play. The more people who fiollow this with cash the higher it will rise and the domino affect will happen Ike it did with blink that went from 50 cents to 8 dollars in one month . Except blink is trash and sc72 is golden.
Did you get a response from the sec yet? I imagine they didn't have enough to go on or they were too lazy to chase after this one. Hopefully I'm wrong. But still, the threat of sec looking over their shoulder now unlike before may help their conscience to do the right thing for their own well being and freedom.
Irish.
It's my understanding, and I could be wrong,, about your statement on cost expense and pxp is wrong.
Pxp is the majority owned parent company. We all agree on that. It's Their decisions on all that counts for forum's direction.
The cost is a different story I believe. Whatever outstanding debt by forum has to be met by forum or by its stock raising capital in the form of a long term loan or a secondary offering. The previous dilution happened as an alternative action referred to as a subscription" to the current major shareholders of forum. When a company who owns forum shares like fecof does, could not meet their portion of debt owed by forum, then someone else pays that debt for them and gets that amount of shares not paid by someone like fecof. That's what happened last time. That's the scam they pulled instead of extending the loan period or other options.
Pxp owns forum. If Pxp decides t drill in forums investment, the expense will surely go into their subsidiary's books in forums books. This debt can be a long term loan without screwing us in fecof again but we must unite our voices in this by occasional emails. I flat out threaten them with lawsuits and investigations as a shareholder I. Fecof. I have no interest in being nice to them when they've ripped me off. That's just me. Traditionally they would get the JV to drill there. Not them. They do however pay for the survey to negotiate better terms with the JV driller when they have something of big worth to bargain with.
So atok big wedge hit 43 today before dropping. I don't get it. Stock manipulation or talk on sc72. ? Volume is definitely much higher than average. Was it a short squeeze being covered ? This company has no revenues yet and traded around 1.5 billion US dollars . It may be too soon to celebrate sc72 leaks as pxp has not really done the same.
Another side note that besides Malampaya making somewhere around 159 billion to 180 billion by the time it ends in 2024. (2002-3024).... Malampaya never had drillers extract the oil portions if I read it correctly. Probably turned into gas eventually , most of it anyway. But still this should be considered for sc72 as they surely have oil to be drilled too that will really surpass anything that Malampaya did.
Based on activity in atok big wedge which only had sc72 that I'm aware of. Pxp will follow and then fecof. Also getting a survey ship to actually have exploratory drilling , which is a huge sign of positive activity and forward progress of this getting done with China's blessing or with trump/Shell Filipines. Now that trumps administration Finally decided to push back! It's a bidders game now that China pushed the envelope too too far. A bidders war for sc72 and more which should end very very well for forum owners. Maybe an offer was already made and ongpin can't keep his excitement from showing and started bidding up himself.
This is all speculation and nothing here will happen overnight, but I'm feeling excited for a change.