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Barron's: Apple stock to jump 25 pct over next year
Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:12pm EDT
* Apple, Oracle, eBay to rise more than 20 pct -Barron's
* Fusion-io is Barron's top tech stock pick for next year
* Top 10 list also includes H-P, Electronic Arts, Tibco
Oct 23 (Reuters) - Shares of a handful of large tech companies including Apple Inc , Oracle Corp and eBay Inc are likely to increase by more than 20 percent over the next year, according to Barron's.
The financial publication listed 10 tech stocks as its top picks in its weekly edition on Sunday.
The No. 1 pick for 2012 is data-storage company Fusion-io Inc , which Barron's highlighted as a possible takeover target. The paper placed a $52 price target on Fusion-io over the next year, indicating the stock will more than double.
Barron's also said some larger technology names are primed for sharp increases.
Although Apple's earnings disappointed investors last week, Barron's said the stock could rise 25 percent over the next year.
Apple shares on Friday closed at $392.87.
Barron's cited a likelihood for market-share gains and increased sales of Apple's latest iPhone model, as well as the potential for share buybacks or a dividend under new Chief Executive Tim Cook.
Apple rounded out the Barron's list at No. 10.
The paper also predicted that Oracle shares would rise 25 percent to $40 over the next year on steady revenue gains, and that eBay shares will rise 24 percent, to $40, because investors are underestimating revenue growth from its non-auction businesses. Oracle came in at No. 2 on its top 10 list and eBay was No. 8.
Hewlett Packard also received a bullish prediction from Barron's, which estimates that its stock will rise 21 percent, to $30, over the next six months, purely on valuation.
"Whatever your opinion of new CEO Meg Whitman, the price looks too extreme," said Barron's, which put H-P as its No. 7 pick.
Rounding out the paper's list were Tibco Software , with a 12-month price target of $35; Electronic Arts Inc , with a two-year target of $40; Nuance Communications , with a 12-month price target of $30; Ancestry.com , with an 18-month price target of $44; and Fortinet Inc , with a three-year price target of $25.65.
1 in 4 tablets from last quarter run on Android? Hmmm…..
By Kevin C. Tofel Oct. 21, 2011, 7:23am PT 78 Comments
Android tablets are quickly eating into Apple’s iPad leading market share with 26.9 percent of shipped tablets in the third quarter running Google’s mobile operating system. A Strategy Analytics report published on Friday comes to that conclusion, suggesting that 4.5 million Android tablets shipped last quarter use Android, while 11.1 million are powered by Apple’s iOS platform. The overall tablet market is up 280 percent from a year ago, showing no signs of a slowdown anytime soon, notes Fierce Wireless, which is where I found the report.
Reports such as this are a win for the Android camp, and while I respect the work done by Strategy Analytics, I’m not sure the report is that meaningful; a few aspects of these comparisons leave them open to considerable interpretation.
First is the definition of market share with respect to tablets sold vs tablets shipped. Apple’s figures are tablets sold, which don’t include tablets sitting on store shelves, tablets en route to stores or tablets sitting in a warehouse. By comparison, Android’s figures are the shipped number of tablets, so any devices sitting on a store shelf actually count, and they shouldn’t for market share purposes.
Next is the question of “what is an Android tablet?” It sounds like a simple question to answer, but it’s not. Why? The first Android tablets, going as far back to the middle of 2010, ran on Android 2.x, or Google’s smartphone platform. It wasn’t until February of 2011 that the first Android 3.0, or Honeycomb, tablet arrived. So are the small 7-inch tablets running the smartphone OS counted in the numbers? And what about the popular Barnes & Noble Nook Color, which can be easily modified to be a full-fledged Android tablet?
I asked Strategy Analytics to clarify both of those points and received the following email response from Neil Mawston, the analyst who wrote the report: ”Yes, the press release refers to shipments, not sales. All sub-versions of Android are included. Yes, the B&N Nook Color tablet is included in the tablet figures.”
While that clarifies the definitions used for the analysis, it also muddies the waters for actual market share of Android tablets in use by version. Another way to measure the number of Android tablets is one I started to use back in July. Google provides bi-weekly figures to developers that show a version breakdown of devices accessing the Android Market over the prior two weeks.
If you know the total number of Android devices in the market, you can use the percentage data to get a reasonable estimate of how many Android 3.x devices are actively being used. Earlier this week, Andy Rubin said 190 million Android devices have been activated. Google’s dashboard currently shows 1.8 percent of devices hitting the Market run Android 3.0 or better. That works out to 3.42 million Android Honeycomb tablets.
The figure isn’t that far off from the 4.5 million shipped Android tablets that Strategy Analytics reports for the last quarter. Ideally, we’d need to see a quarterly figure of new Android activations to further refine this method. Activated devices are sold, not just shipped, so it provides a better measure of actual sales, and therefore, market share.
Assuming that Android tablet sales are dramatically rising, I’m not sure I understand why. What has changed from the prior quarter for these devices? Not much, aside from a few minor platform updates to address a tablet OS that was rushed to market. Aside from some price drops, I don’t see why consumers would suddenly be purchasing Android tablets. That doesn’t mean I think the iPad is the best tablet for everyone; I’m simply trying to understand the market share numbers.
Regardless of the Strategy Analytics report, perhaps the best indicator of which tablets are actually selling is to see what people are using. I’ve taken four cross-country trips in the past month and I’ve also been out and about in my local area. In all of my travels, I always pay attention to which mobile devices are being used. I saw iPads, smartphones and laptops, but aside from my own 7-inch Samsung Galaxy Tab, not one single Android tablet. Maybe I’m just travelling with the wrong crowd?
http://gigaom.com/mobile/1-in-4-tablets-from-last-quarter-run-on-android-hmmm/
Maybe Money made it up?
Apple’s Siri a powerful tool, especially if you use these 3 pro tips
Saturday, October 22, 2011 · 10:45 am
“Apple’s new Siri virtual assistant feature in the iPhone 4s is… incredibly useful and powerful — especially if you use my three Pro Tips at the bottom of this column,” Mike Elgan writes for Computerworld.
“Siri enables me to play music and podcasts, send and receive emails and texts, give myself reminders, make appointments, get directions and all the rest without needing glasses or even taking the phone out of my pocket,” Elgan writes. “I don’t understand how anyone can fail to understand how great this is.”
Siri Pro tips:
• Give Siri an assistant of its own
• Master Siri’s surprising e-mail power
• Be a dictator with Siri’s hidden Dragon
Read more in the full article here:
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9221101/Elgan_Getting_serious_about_Siri
No Cellphone-Cancer Link in Large Study
By TARA PARKER-POPE
Mary F. Calvert for The New York Times
What is the link between cellphones and cancer?
A major study of nearly 360,000 cellphone users in Denmark found no increased risk of brain tumors with long-term use.
Although the data, collected from one of the largest-ever studies of cellphone use, are reassuring, the investigators noted that the design of the study focused on cellphone subscriptions rather than actual use, so it is unlikely to settle the debate about cellphone safety. A small to moderate increase in risk of cancer among heavy users of cellphones for 10 to 15 years or longer still “cannot be ruled out,” the investigators wrote.
The findings, published in the British medical journal BMJ as an update of a 2007 report, come nearly five months after a World Health Organization panel concluded that cellphones are “possibly carcinogenic.” Last year, a 13-country study called Interphone also found no overall increased risk but reported that participants with the highest level of cellphone use had a 40 percent higher risk of glioma, an aggressive type of brain tumor. (Even if the elevated risk of glioma is confirmed, the tumors are relatively rare, and thus individual risk remains minimal.)
The Danish study is important because it matches data from a national cancer registry with mobile phone contracts beginning in 1982, the year the phones were introduced in Denmark, until 1995. Because it used a computerized cohort that was tracked through registries and digitized subscriber data, it avoided the need to contact individuals and thus eliminated problems related to selection and recall bias common in other studies.
However, the major weakness of the study is that it counted cellphone subscriptions rather than actual use by individuals, and failed to count people who had corporate subscriptions or who used cellphones without a long-term contract. Those small details could have diluted any association between cellphone use and cancer risk, the investigators conceded.
An accompanying editorial noted that although the results are reassuring, they must be viewed in the context of about 15 previous studies on cellphones and cancer risk, including those that did detect an association between heavy cellphone use and certain brain tumors.
Anders Ahlbom, a professor of epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden and an author of the editorial, said in an e-mail that research on the subject should continue.
“Many stones have been lifted, but little has been found,” he wrote. “While there is little reason to expect anything to be found beneath the next stone, some uncertainty remains. We have learned that studies based on historical accounts of cellphone use are prone to bias. So a reasonable way forward seems to be to follow national statistics and prospective cohorts.”
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/20/study-finds-no-link-between-cellphones-and-brain-tumors/
After the iPhone 4S, Android just feels wrong
By James Kendrick
Summary: As a long-time happy Android phone user, it surprises me that it only took using the iPhone 4S for a few days to point out that using Android just feels wrong.
Like I usually do when new gadgets hit the tool kit, I have been using only the iPhone 4S for the past few days. I still have my Nexus S 4G Android phone running the current version of Gingerbread, but it remained on the charger while I carried the new iPhone everywhere. Last night I decided it was time to pick up the Nexus and get reacquainted with the phone that has served me well. It didn’t take me long to realize that after using the smooth, polished iPhone 4S that Android just feels wrong.
This realization hit me hard, as I found that as I used the Nexus, a phone I absolutely love, the user experience was jangling my nerves. The inconsistencies in the interface between apps and the occasional lag doing simple things like scrolling in windows just screamed at me. I hadn’t really noticed it before, but after using the iPhone these things jump out at me.
Don’t get me wrong, the Android Gingerbread interface isn’t bad, it’s just not always smooth. In just a few days with the iPhone 4S and iOS 5 I had come to expect operation to be fluid and consistent system-wide. That’s just not the case with Android, and every little interruption in smooth operation now accumulates into a feeling of frustration as I use the phone.
The biggest area of discontent is in web browsing, one of the primary things I do with a smartphone. I have long found stock Android browsers to be lacking, not in a major way but in fluid operation. That never bothered me as the strength of Android is the number of apps available, and third party browsers stepped in and served my needs just fine. Or so I thought.
After the totally flawless operation of Mobile Safari on the iPhone 4S, I realize that the browsing experience in Android just falls short. Sometimes pages stutter while loading, other times a page doesn’t load at all. Hitting the X to stop a stalled page and then refreshing the page to get the browser to load the page was something I had gotten used to doing to make it work. Now that seems like a jarring interruption to what I now know can be a fluid experience. And don’t get me started on pinching to zoom in or out on web pages and how terrible that is on Android compared to iOS.
The lack of fluid operation in Android may be due to the OS, or perhaps it is hardware related. It might be due to better apps on the iPhone, or tighter control by Apple over them. I really don’t care as a user, I want the best user experience I can get. The good one delivered by the iPhone 4S makes it clear to me how wanting the Android experience actually is. It just feels wrong.
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/mobile-news/after-the-iphone-4s-android-just-feels-wrong/5068
And Android still stutters.
http://thisismynext.com/2011/10/18/galaxy-nexus-android-ice-cream-sandwich-pictures-video-hands-on/
Since you're an IT nerd, you should find the Comments interesting.
I'm sorry you so fundamentally misunderstand Apple's business model -- and the products it sells -- but that's the subject of another post.
adeezl, see that sign at the top of this page?
It says "Investorshub," not Nerdhub.
Now maybe when you've made me more money than Apple's made me, I might take your opinions and so-called insights on tech and other matters with something more than a grain of salt.
But I'm not making any promises.
Show me the money first.
So you missed yesterday's buying op?
Apple’s just-okay quarter in charts
Tuesday, 18 October 2011 at 4:45 pm
Apple just reported September quarter results, and they’re below Wall Street’s expectations for the first time in a long time.
Weaker-than-predicted iPhone sales ahead of the iPhone 4S launch seemed to do Apple in. As a result, revenue and profits both missed the Street’s mark. Overall revenue growth fell to 39% year-over-year, from the low-80%s the prior two quarters.
Meanwhile, iPad and Mac shipments were the main strong spots during the quarter. And Apple has already guided toward a big December quarter, predicting — probably conservatively — $37 billion in revenue.
http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/apple-4q11-charts/
Our Apple whisper numbers
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt October 17, 2011: 7:11 AM ET
We're averaging the Q4 estimates of the six analysts with the best track records
The chart ELOW, which compares Apple's (AAPL) reported earnings for the past six quarters with estimates made in advance of those reports, shows that some analysts are better at predicting the company's results than others.
Data: Company reports, PED. Chart: Adam Bushman
Specifically, a group of independent analysts we've been calling -- for lack of a better term -- "the bloggers," have consistently out-performed the analysts who work for the big banks and brokerage firms ("the pros").
But even within the blogger group there are individuals who stand out as particularly prescient.
We've taken the average estimates of the six analysts with the best records over the past year to calculate our "whisper numbers" -- defined by Investopedia as "the unofficial and unpublished earnings per share (EPS) forecasts that circulate among professionals on Wall Street ... generally reserved for the favored (wealthy) clients of a brokerage." [The website WhisperNumber.com uses a different definition.]
We're going to do Wall Street one better and offer not just one whisper number for Apple's last fiscal quarter of 2011, but seven of them. Moreover, we're not going to whisper them to some favored (wealthy) clients, we're going to publish them.
Based on the estimates of our best analysts, we're looking for the company to report:
Revenue: $33 billion
EPS: $8.88
iPhone unit sales: 22.35 million
iPod unit sales: 7.56 million
Mac unit sales: 4.72 million
iPad unit sales: 13.06 million
Gross margin: 41.3%
We'll find out how close our numbers are to the mark on Tuesday at about 4:30 p.m. EST, when the quarterly results hit the business wires. Apple is scheduled to discuss those results in a 5 p.m. conference call with analysts that the company will webcast here.
Below: The full spreadsheet of the most recent estimates from the 58 analysts we polled. As you will see, there are still a few gaps, and some Wall Street analysts haven't updated their numbers since July. [Note: Updated Monday afternoon to incorporate revisions from Citigroup's Richard Gardner, Ticonderoga's Brian White, Baird's William Power and BCG's Colin Gillis.]
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/17/our-apple-whisper-numbers/
BREAKING...Apple price target raised to $525 from $485 at RW Baird
On Monday October 17, 2011, 8:02 am EDT
Baird raised its price target on Apple citing strong momentum in its existing products as well as early strong iPhone 4s demand indicators. Shares are Outperform rated.
CHART OF THE DAY: Apple's REAL Earnings Expectations
Kamelia Angelova | Oct. 17, 2011, 5:01 PM
Apple is bound to crush earnings tomorrow, based on the fact that the company always low balls its guidance.
Its EPS has been outperforming guidance by 44% on average over the last six quarters, and revenue has been 18% higher than revenue guidance.
Based on this trend, Apple should report EPS of $7.90 on $29.38 billion revenue, versus its September EPS guidance of $5.50 EPS, and $25 billion revenue guidance.
Wall Street consensus is at $29.45 billion for revenue and $7.28 for EPS.
If you don't like Apple's business model, don't buy the stock.
Pretty simple, really.
Sprint says iPhone broke record for first day sales of any phone
NEW YORK — Apple stores got the longest lines as the new iPhone model launched Friday, but there were lines at Sprint stores too, as the carrier got a chance to sell the phone more than four years after the first model was launched.
Product chief Fared Adib said that by midday, the iPhone had broken Sprint's record for first-day sales of any phone. Sales were above the company's expectations, he said, without giving any figures.
Sprint Nextel Corp. joined bigger carriers AT&T and Verizon Wireless as a seller of the phone. Spot checks in Philadelphia and San Francisco showed that the lines outside Sprint stores were longer than at its rivals.
Sprint is struggling to compete with the bigger carriers and expects the iPhone to help it keep subscribers.
In Chicago, 18-year-old Torian Marshall was among the 150 or so people lined up outside an Apple store on Friday morning. He had been holding off on getting an iPhone until his service provider, Sprint, got it.
"I'm so excited. I've been waiting forever," he said.
Kaufman Bros. analyst Ben Abramovitz said talks with about 50 people in line for the phone at a Sprint store revealed that most of them are current Sprint customers looking to upgrade, particularly BlackBerry users looking for a more Internet-friendly phone. He also found some AT&T Inc. and T-Mobile USA customers looking to switch.
Sprint will be paying a lot of money to put iPhones in customer hands: It's subsidizing each iPhone 4S by about $400 to get it down to the $200 price for the 16 gigabyte version. It's also selling the cheaper iPhone 4.
Credit ratings agency Moody's Investor Service on Friday downgraded Sprint's debt, sending it further into speculative-grade, or "junk" territory. Part of the reason is the cash drain that iPhone sales will cause before they start paying off through higher monthly service fees.
The chief reason behind the downgrade, however, is Sprint's decision to upgrade its wireless network for faster data speeds, Moody's said. Sprint revealed that decision a week ago, to the dismay of investors.
Sprint's stock increased 2 cent to close Friday at $2.80.
Just picked up an iPhone S4 at the local AT&T store.
With state sales tax it cost me about one AAPL.
Inside Apple's iPhone 4S: 'S' is for Sales
By Neil Hughes
Published: 10:34 AM EST (07:34 AM PST)
Already drawing record preorders and long lines, Apple's just-launched iPhone 4S is poised to become the best selling smartphone yet in the history of the company.
Leading up to today's launch of the iPhone 4S, AppleInsider has been offering a closer look at some of the features of the next-generation handset. Given that the 'S' in the device's moniker was never officially defined by Apple, five potential definitions have been offered.
Today's conclusion isn't about features, but instead the explosive and continued growth of the iPhone platform -- a trend that's expected to carry on with the iPhone 4S. Today, 'S' is for Sales.
iPhone 4S: A longer wait
Since debuting in 2007, the iPhone has soared high on continued hype -- and a booming smartphone market -- to become the highest-selling, most profitable device in the company's portfolio. It's an upward trend that has continued, without fail, with every new iPhone model introduced.
But this year has been different. Though iPhone hardware has historically been introduced in June at Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple opted to wait until October to hold a special event and unveil the iPhone 4S.
With four months added to the life cycle of the iPhone 4 as the premier smartphone in Apple's lineup, the rumor mill was given even more time to dream up what the company's next iPhone might feature. Some of the rumors were plausible, like a redesigned appearance; others were questionable, like a brand new cheaper iPhone model for emerging markets; and some were out of left field, like a last-minute claim that a redesigned "iPhone 5" would be exclusive to Sprint, the third-largest wireless carrier in the U.S.
Leading up to last week's unveiling of the iPhone 4S, no one outside of Apple could say with certainty what was going to be unveiled. And with outlandish claims aplenty, initial reaction by some enthusiasts who invest in rumors was one of disappointment.
In that respect, to some, the final 'S' in this series could also stand for "Same," as in, the iPhone 4S has the same design as the iPhone 4. But so far there's been no evidence that the general public -- the masses who buy millions of iPhones -- are at all bothered that the iPhone 4S looks and feels just like its predecessor.
In fact, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary.
Graphic by Horace Dediu of Asymco.
Records already broken
The one-two punch of the iPhone 4S unveiling and the death of Steve Jobs in a span of just two days hadn't fully settled in by the time the iPhone 4S became available for preorder. Almost immediately, the iPhone 4S sold out for launch day delivery from Apple, and new orders were given an estimated arrival of one to two weeks.
A flood of interest from customers tested Apple's servers, as the company's website at times showed errors to customers and would not take orders. By later in the day on Friday, systems were once again running smoothly.
Then on Monday, Apple revealed that one million preorders for the iPhone 4S were sold on the first day. That's a new record for the company, which had a previous best of 600,000 iPhone 4 units sold in a single day in 2010.
The numbers suggest that this weekend the iPhone 4S should easily exceed Apple's record of 1.7 million iPhones sold over a three-day launch window. That too was set by the iPhone 4 in 2010.
The iPhone 4S has already had the strongest start of any iPhone yet, and next week Apple is expected to reveal that as many as 3 million units were sold over the weekend. But can the iPhone 4S maintain that momentum once the hype over a new product has died down?
iPhone 4S: How high can it go?
Tremendous growth has been par for the course with the iPhone since 2007. For example, in Apple's 2010 fiscal year, iPhone unit sales grew 93 percent year over year.
Apple is expected to have achieved a similar achievement this year, when its final quarter of fiscal 2011 is revealed by the company next Tuesday. In the company's previous quarter concluding in June, it recorded record sales of 20.34 million iPhones.
Sales for the September quarter, during which the iPhone 4 was Apple's high-end handset, will likely reflect consumer anticipation ahead of the next iPhone. For example, in the June quarter of 2010 when the iPhone 3GS was Apple's premier device, iPhone units were down sequentially as hype built for the iPhone 4.
But Apple's current quarter, which concludes in December, will reflect two and a half months of iPhone 4S sales, along with a potential bump from the holiday buying season. It's expected to be Apple's best quarter ever, with one projection calling for 25 million total iPhone sales in the three-month period.
Chart by Horace Dediu of Asymco.
In addition to a holiday sales boost, there are also a growing number of loyal iPhone users ripe for an upgrade. For example, many customers who purchased their iPhone 3GS with a two-year service contract are now seeing those contracts expire.
An overwhelming majority of iPhone users have consistently expressed satisfaction with Apple's handset. Because of that, a recent projection by Wall Street analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray called for 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users to upgrade to Apple's iPhone 4S.
If history is any indication, Munster's assumptions will likely prove to be conservative, something he himself has admitted. For example, his figures call for Apple to sell 104.4 million iPhones in the company's 2012 fiscal year, a sum that would be just a 35 percent increase from 2011.
At this point it's not a question of whether the iPhone 4S will outsell the iPhone 4 and break new records for Apple -- that's expected. Instead, the question is: by how much will the iPhone 4S will surpass the iPhone 4 and continue Apple's tremendous growth? While the upgraded handset packs an impressive set of features with Siri, the A5 chip, an 8-megapixel camera and an improved antenna, it's the sales of the iPhone 4S that will ultimately determine its legacy.
A Look at Apple’s iCloud
But the bottom line is that there is real gold in them thar clouds. The syncing of address book and calendar is essential. Photo Stream is fantastic — you never have to curse the fact that some great photo is stuck on another machine (although I wish there were a way to delete individual photos).
And all of this is free?
What can I say? It’s a banner week for Apple.
http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/a-look-at-icloud/?ref=personaltechemail&nl=technology&emc=cta1
Inside Apple’s Upcoming Quarterly Earnings Release
By Derek Hoffman
October 13 2011
Apple, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet
S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) component Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will unveil its latest earnings on Tuesday, October 18, 2011. Apple offers a range personal computers, mobile devices, and portable digital music and video players. The company also sells related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions.
Wall St. Earnings Expectations:
The average estimate of analysts is for net income of $7.22 per share, a rise of 55.6% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved up from $6.35. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved up. It has risen from $7.01 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting profit of $27.74 per share, a rise of 83.1% from last year.
Past Earnings Performance:
The company has beaten estimates the last four quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped forecasts by $1.98, reporting net income of $7.79 per share against a mean estimate of profit of $5.81 per share.
Wall St. Revenue Expectations:
On average, analysts predict $29.24 billion in revenue this quarter, a rise of 43.8% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $108.98 billion for the year, a rise of 67.1% from last year’s revenue of $65.22 billion.Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on this stock with 37 analysts rating it as a buy, none rating it as a sell and three rating it as a hold.
A Look Back:
In the third quarter, profit rose more than twofold to $7.31 billion ($7.79 a share) from $3.25 billion ($3.51 a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose 82% to $28.57 billion from $15.7 billion.
Key Stats:
The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of 65.1%, with the biggest boost coming in the second quarter when revenue rose 82.7% from the year earlier quarter.
The company has seen net income rise in three straight quarters. Net income rose 94.8% in the second quarter and 77.7% in the first quarter.
Competitors to Watch: Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intl. Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI), Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK).
Stock Price Performance: During July 19, 2011 to October 12, 2011, the stock price had risen $25.34 (6.7%) from $376.85 to $402.19. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between July 14, 2011 and July 26, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 12.8% (+$45.64) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between September 23, 2011 and October 4, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 7.9% (-$31.80) over that span. Shares are up $79.63 (+24.7%) year to date.
Wall Street still doesn't understand Apple
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt October 11, 2011: 2:13 PM ET
With Q4 earnings due next week, the pros and the bloggers are $3.9 billion apart
Data: Company reports, Apple 2.0. Chart: Adam Bushman
It has become, for the Street, an embarrassing quarterly tradition.
The Apple (AAPL) independent analysts -- a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs -- file estimates that look, by Wall Street's standards, outrageously optimistic.
But as the day of reckoning approaches -- in this case, Tuesday Oct. 18, when Apple is scheduled to announce its fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2011 -- the estimates filed by the professional analysts inch closer to the bloggers'. Three months ago the Street's consensus EPS for the quarter was $6.37. Today, according to Thomson Financial, it is $7.20.
But that's still nearly 26% lower than $9.07, the consensus offered the bloggers.
The disparity is even more striking when you look at individual calls. They range for EPS from a low of $6.30 filed by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty to a high of $10.1 from Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao.
Which group is right? Judging from the chart above, kindly prepared by reader Adam Bushman from data we've been collecting for the past six quarters, you should probably take your professional broker's advice with a grain of salt. In every one of those quarters, the bloggers have clobbered the pros -- often by a considerable margin.
Below the fold: Bushman's chart for Apple's revenue, updated with the Tuesday's data from Thomson Financial. Beneath that chart: The estimates for individual analysts (bloggers in green, pros in blue) with the date of their estimates and their rank as determined by the accuracy of their revenue and EPS estimates over the past three quarters.
The 18th, I believe.
Wells Fargo Raised Estimates Today
StreetInsider:
October 12, 2011 11:41 AM EDT
Wells Fargo is reaffirming its Outperform rating and $460-$480 valuation range on shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) ahead of its fourth quarter results.
For the fourth quarter, the firm forecasts 21 million iPhones sold, 11 million iPads, 7.5 million iPods, and 4.2 million macs. WellsFargo notes that its iPhone assumption is conservative on a belief that consumers were awaiting the release of the new iPhone 5, which was actually the iPhone 4S.
Due to lower than previously expected component costs, Wells Fargo raised its gross margin estimate from 38 percent to 39.7 percent for the quarter. The firm also raised its EPS estimate for the fourth quarter from $6.60 to $7.15 while maintaining its sales estimate of $29.4 billion.
For fiscal 2011 and 2012, Wells is raising its EPS estimates from $27.23 and $31.15 to $27.78 and $33.40. The increase in its fiscal 2012 estimate reflects the overwhelmingly positive response to the iPhone 4S. The firm's revenue estimate for fiscal 2012 was also lifted from $129.9 billion to $136.7 billion.
An analyst at Wells Fargo comments, "While Apple has been a relative outperformer this year, up 20% versus -5% for the S&P 500, we believe that the current PE multiple does not fully reflect the company's continued growth opportunities, and its propensity for revenue and earnings outperformance."
The iPhone 4S: Faster, More Capable, And You Can Talk To It
MG SIEGLER
What does the “S” stand for?
When I ask Apple this, they’re vague in their response. They note that some people say it stands for “Special” or “Super”. Others say it’s for “Speed” — much like the iPhone 3GS, the successor to the iPhone 3G. Or maybe it’s “Storage” (this is the first iPhone with 64 GB option — and with iCloud storage). Or “Sprint” (this is the first iPhone to run on that network in the U.S.) Or perhaps it’s for “Speech” or “Siri”. Either of these last two would get my vote. The point is, the “S” can stand for any number of things depending on who is using the device. Here’s all I know for certain: this is the best iPhone yet.
Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of talk in the blogosphere following the unveiling of the iPhone 4S last week. Some pundits seemed underwhelmed by what was unveiled on stage. “Where’s the iPhone 5?,” many wondered. Arguing over names is silly — Apple could have easily called this device the “iPhone 5?. But I assume they chose not to for the same reason that some actually felt underwhelmed: the iPhone 4S looks exactly like the iPhone 4. Fair or not, if a device looks the same, many will assume it is largely the same.
But that would be selling the iPhone 4S well short. While it does look the same as the iPhone 4, the 4S contains innards that are a significant upgrade over the previous model. The two biggest changes are the faster chip — the A5 over the A4 — and the much-improved camera. Combine those with the new iOS 5 software, and you have what will definitely be a worthwhile upgrade for many users. And when you throw in the amazing new voice-driven “intelligent assistant” Siri, it becomes a no-brainer, in my mind. These are the aspects I’m going to focus on.
[Rest of review here:]
http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/11/iphone-4s-review/
New iPhone Conceals Sheer Magic
By DAVID POGUE
What’s in a name?
A lot, apparently. Apple’s new iPhone is called the iPhone 4S. But what people really wanted was the iPhone 5.
The rumors online had predicted the second coming — or, rather, the fifth coming. It would be wedge-shaped! It would be completely transparent! It would clean your basement, pick you up at the airport and eliminate unsightly blemishes!
Instead, what showed up was a new iPhone that looks just like the last one: black or white, glass front and back, silver metal band around the sides. And on paper, at least, the new phone does only four new things.
THING 1: There’s a faster chip, the same one that’s in the iPad 2. More speed is always better, of course. But it’s not like people were complaining about the previous iPhone’s speed.
THING 2: A much better, faster camera — among the best on a phone. It has a resolution of eight megapixels, which doesn’t matter much, and a new, more light-sensitive sensor, which does. Its photos are crisp and clear, with beautiful color. The low-light photos and 1080p high-definition video are especially impressive for a phone. There’s still no zoom and only a tiny LED flash — but otherwise, this phone comes dangerously close to displacing a $200 point-and-shoot digital camera.
THING 3: The iPhone 4S is a world phone. As of Friday, you will be able to buy it from AT&T, Verizon and, for the first time, Sprint ($200, $300 or $400 for the 16-, 32- or 64-gigabyte models). But even if you get your iPhone 4S from Verizon, whose CDMA network is incompatible with the GSM networks used in most other countries, you’ll still be able to make calls overseas, either through Verizon or by inserting another carrier’s SIM card. Call ahead for details.
Each carrier has its selling points. Sprint is the only one with an unlimited iPhone data plan (example: $110 a month for unlimited calling, texting and Internet). AT&T says it has the fastest download speeds. But if you care about calling coverage, Verizon is the way to go.
THING 4: Speech recognition. Crazy good, transformative, category-redefining speech recognition.
Exactly as on Android phones, a tiny microphone button appears on the on-screen keyboard; whenever you have an Internet connection, you can tap it when you want to dictate instead of typing. After a moment, the transcription appears. The sometimes frustrating on-screen keyboard is now a glorified Plan B.
Apple won’t admit that it’s using a version of Dragon Dictation, the free iPhone app, but there doesn’t seem to be much doubt; it works and behaves identically. (For example, it occasionally seems to process your utterance but then types nothing at all, just as the Dragon app does.) This version is infinitely better, though, because it’s a built-in keyboard button, not a separate app.
But dictation is only half the story — no, one-tenth of the story. Because in 2010, Apple bought a start-up called Siri, whose technology it has baked into the iPhone 4S.
Siri is billed as a virtual assistant: a crisply accurate, astonishingly understanding, uncomplaining, voice-commanded minion. No voice training or special syntax is required; you don’t even have to hold the phone up to your head. You just hold down the phone’s Home button until you hear a double beep, and then speak casually.
You can say, “Wake me up at 7:35,” or “Change my 7:35 alarm to 8.” You can say, “What’s Gary’s work number?” Or, “How do I get to the airport?” Or, “Any good Thai restaurants around here?” Or, “Make a note to rent ‘Ishtar’ this weekend.” Or, “How many days until Valentine’s Day?” Or, “Play some Beatles.” Or, “When was Abraham Lincoln born?”
In each case, Siri thinks for a few seconds, displays a beautifully formatted response and speaks in a calm female voice.
It’s mind-blowing how inexact your utterances can be. Siri understands everything from, “What’s the weather going to be like in Tucson this weekend?” to “Will I need an umbrella tonight?” (She has various amusing responses for “What is the meaning of life?”)
It’s even more amazing how Siri’s responses can actually form a conversation. Once, I tried saying, “Make an appointment with Patrick for Thursday at 3.” Siri responded, “Note that you already have an all-day appointment about ‘Boston Trip’ for this Thursday. Shall I schedule this anyway?” Unbelievable.
Siri can perform an incredible range of tasks. She can get stock prices, weather, currency and price conversions, dictionary definitions, measurement conversions, math totals. She lets you use your voice to edit or check the Clock, Calendar, Notes and Address Book apps, the new Reminders app and the renamed Music (formerly iPod) app. She can read your new e-mail and text messages to you — and let you respond, all by voice (big news for drivers). She uses GPS to know where you are, so you can say things like, “Remind me to pick up the dry cleaning when I leave work” — and she’ll do it.
She is not, however, as smart as “Star Trek’s” computers. She draws an apologetic blank if you say things like, “How many AT&T minutes do I have left this month?” or “How do you get ketchup stains out?” And it’s surprising that she doesn’t interact with more of the built-in apps. It would be great if you could open an app by voice (“Open Angry Birds”) instead of hunting through 11 screens, or turn on Airplane Mode by voice, or display a certain set of photos.
Apple says Siri will improve with time — both because she adapts to you, and because Apple itself will periodically upgrade her brain.
But already, Siri saves time, fumbling and distraction, and profoundly changes the definition of “phone.” I find myself using certain commands constantly, especially “Wake me at,” “Call,” “Send a message to,” “Give me directions to,” and “Remind me.”
It’s a shame that Siri isn’t available for older iPhones. Apple says that she requires the 4S’s faster processor, although before Apple bought the company, there was a Siri app that ran just fine on other models.
Most of the new software features in the 4S, however, are indeed available to older iPhones, thanks to the free iOS 5 software update.
Some of its 200 new features play Android catch-up. For example, a tidy, attractive Notification Center appears when you swipe a finger down the screen. In one place, it lists all of your missed calls, text messages received, coming appointments and other updates — a tremendous convenience.
You can now fire up the camera right from the Lock screen, saving you a detour to the Home screen. You can now press the Volume Up button to snap a picture; it falls exactly where a real camera’s shutter button would be. Basic photo-fixing tools (auto-color adjust, cropping and red-eye removal) are now built in.
If you’re sending a text, photo or video to another iPad, iPhone or iPod Touch, iOS automatically uses a new, proprietary service called iMessages instead of sending a traditional text message. (It’s not a separate app; it’s built into the existing Messages app. These iMessages appear in blue text bubbles; regular text messages appear in green.) This new service lets you see if the recipient has read your message yet, and it can save you money; instead of counting as a cellular text message, each i-to-i message goes over the Internet and costs you nothing.
Starting Wednesday, iOS 5 will be available as a free download for the iPhone 3GS and 4, all iPads and the last two generations of the iPod Touch.
(Speaking of older models: The iPhone 4 is still for sale, for $100, and so is the iPhone 3GS — free with a two-year contract. That ought to be catnip to people who think that a phone’s price is significant next to the $2,000 two-year cost of the contract.)
The iCloud service goes live on Wednesday, too. Like its predecessor, the $100-a-year MobileMe, iCloud wirelessly, automatically synchronizes your calendar, address book and mail among your phone, tablet, Macs and PC’s. But iCloud also synchronizes your photos, music, e-books, apps and TV shows among all of those gadgets — far more reliably. And it’s free. (My full review of iCloud appears Thursday at nytimes.com/pogue. And — full disclosure — I’m writing a book about the iPhone and iOS 5.)
Android phones seem to come out every Tuesday at 3:45 p.m. Apple updates iOS and the iPhone only once a year. So Apple had a lot of catching up to do, even some leapfrogging. There are some rough spots here and there; for example, every now and then the 4S’s camera app gets stuck on its startup screen. And while the battery still gets you through one full day, standby time is shorter than before (200 hours versus 300). But over all, Apple has done an excellent job.
The question isn’t what’s in a name — it’s what’s in a phone. And the answer is: “A lot of amazing technology. And some of it feels like magic.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/technology/personaltech/iphone-4s-conceals-sheer-magic-pogue.html?_r=1&partner=yahoofinance&pagewanted=print
Testing shows iPhone 4S A5 GPU clocked at 800MHz, 73% faster than iPhone 4
By Sam Oliver
Published: 08:16 AM EST (05:16 AM PST)
New Geekbench scores of the forthcoming iPhone 4S show that its custom-built A5 CPU is clocked at 800MHz, while the dual-core processor gives it a 73 percent performance boost than the iPhone 4.
The new figures from AnandTech show the iPhone 4S with an overall Geekbench score of 623, easily besting the 800MHz A4 CPU found in the iPhone 4. The iPhone 4S processor is clocked slower than the 1GHz A5 CPu found in the iPad 2, which earned a score of 751.
And in terms of its graphics processing capabilities, the iPhone 4S lived up to claims of being seven times faster than the iPhone 4. In one test, the iPhone 4S earned a score of 73.1 while the iPhone 4 took 11.2, and in another the iPhone 4S clocked a score of 122.7, compared to 15.3 for the iPhone 4.
GPU scores for the iPhone 4S, like the overall CPU score, were slightly slower than the iPad 2. But they also easily bested the competition, including the Samsung Galaxy S II, Samsung Infuse 4G, and Motorola Droid Bionic, all of which feature processors with higher clock speeds.
The site noted that while lowering the clock speed of the A5 from 1GHz in the iPad 2 to 800MHz in the iPhone 4S results in a "marginal loss" in performance, but "yields a greater-than-linear decrease in power consumption," offering the handset even greater battery life.
"At a lower operating frequency than its Android competitors, Apple does have to exploit its strengths in software to avoid any tangible performance penalties," authors Anand Lai Shimpi and Brian Klug wrote. "Apple has traditionally done this very well in the past, so I don't expect the loss of frequency to be a huge deal to the few who cross-shop iOS and Android."
The testing also correlated with earlier results that showed the iPhone 4S will offer a huge leap in performance over the iPhone 4 in its Mobile Safari Browser. In SunSpider Javascript Benchmark tests, where a lower score is better, the iPhone 4S earned 2222, compared to 3921 for the iPhone 4 and 5785 for the iPhone 3GS.
There's another big difference between Steve Jobs and Richard Stallman.
Stallman never made me any money.
Apple’s iPhone 4 still top-selling smartphone at AT&T, Verizon in September
By: Zach Epstein | Oct 11th, 2011 at 10:00AM0 CommentsFiled Under: Mobile
Apple’s iPhone 4 was still the best-selling smartphone at both AT&T and Verizon Wireless in September while the Samsung Galaxy S II, Epic 4G Touch topped Sprint’s smartphone lineup and the HTC Sensation was No. 1 at T-Mobile. Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Walkley on Monday revealed the results of checks the firm performed recently, and the resulting estimates paint an all too familiar picture of the smartphone landscape in the U.S. last month. Read on for more.
At AT&T in September, Apple’s iPhone 4 held the No. 1 spot followed by the Samsung Infuse 4G and RIM’s new $50 BlackBerry Torch 9810 according to Canaccord’s checks. The iPhone 4 also grabbed the top spot at Verizon Wireless again, followed by two pricey LTE-capable Android smartphones: the Motorola DROID BIONIC and the Samsung DROID Charge.
Samsung’s brand new Galaxy S II, Epic 4G Touch was the top-selling smartphone at Sprint in September despite only having been available for half the month. The HTC EVO 3D was the second best-selling smartphone at Sprint last month, followed by the Motorola Photon 4G. Finally, Canaccord’s checks show that the HTC Sensation was T-Mobile’s No. 1 smartphone in September for the fourth consecutive month, with the myTouch 4G Slide maintaining the No. 2 spot and the Samsung Vibrant rounding out the top-3.
“Our September channel checks indicated solid sell-through trends versus August levels in the U.S. market with sales stronger than our expectations,” Walkley wrote. “While we anticipated slowing sales ahead of new smartphone products such as the iPhone 4S and Samsung Galaxy S II, our checks indicated solid September sales. Further, we expect even stronger sell-through trends in October versus August/September levels.” The analyst also noted that Apple’s iPad 2 was the top-selling tablet from both AT&T and Verizon Wireless.
Canaccord’s September sales chart follows below.
I hope you covered your short today.
Not that i think you ever made one in the first place.
Steve Jobs, who died too young at 56 years old yesterday, was best known for imagining a better future and then organizing others to help him make that future happen.
Usually Jobs reserved this talent for gadgets and media.
But in 2009 and 2010, Jobs quietly put this skill toward saving lives.
In October 2010, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed into law a bill that made California the first state in the nation to create a live donor registry for kidney transplants. The bill also required California drivers to decide whether they want to be organ donors when they renew their driver licenses. According to one supporter, this second measure alone should double the number of organ transplants available in California.
Neither of these life-saving changes to California law would ever have happened without the help of Jobs.
[...]
But something about his whole experience [a liver transplant] still bothered Jobs.
As he would later explain in his own words, Jobs was alarmed that while he, a very wealthy man, was able to survive his liver's failure, others were not so lucky. He knew that in California alone, 400 people died hoping that same year.
And so, in a departure from a largely apolitical career, Jobs decided to do something about it.
At a dinner in December 2009, Jobs sat next to Maria Shriver who was then married to California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Steve told her the whole story of his liver transplant. He complained that California doesn't do enough to encourage people to become organ donors. He told Shriver that she should get her husband to do something about it — that California should require people who want driver licenses to say whether or not they want to be organ donors (previously, they'd only had the option of saying they wanted to be donors).
The First Lady talked to her husband. Then the governor called Jobs. Suddenly, a cause that couldn't find its way into a bill for two or more years was set to become State Senate Bill 1395.
Eventually Jobs and the governor planned to announce the bill at Stanford's Lucile Packard Children's Hospital.
After an introduction from the hospital's president and a short speech from the governor, Jobs stood at the podium.
He said:
Last year I received a liver transplant. I was very fortunate, because many others died waiting to receive one. Last year in California there were 671 liver transplants, but last year there were also over 3,400 people waiting for a liver and over 400 of them died waiting in California.
I was almost one of the ones that died waiting for a liver in California last year. I was receiving great care here at Stanford but there were simply not enough livers in California to go around and my doctors here advised me to enroll in a transplant program in Memphis, Tennessee, where the supply/demand ratio of livers is more favorable than it is in California here. And I was lucky enough to get a liver in time. As a matter of fact, this coming week is my one-year anniversary.
So why aren't there more organs available in California? Because in California, like most other states in the nation, you must specifically request to become an organ donor at the Department of Motor Vehicles when you're there to get or renew your driver's license. No one asks you if you want to become a donor. And there's no marketing campaign to make you aware of this opportunity, either, so unless you know about it and unless you specifically ask, nobody is going to ask you, nobody is going to give you this opportunity. And yet even with this obscure procedure over 20 percent of Californians have signed up to be organ donors, which is fantastic. But imagine what it could be if everyone knew of this opportunity.
And that's what the Governor's bill will do. It will simply require the DMV to ask you if you'd like to become an organ donor. That's it. Asking this one simple question may double the number of transplant organs available in California — one simple question. And that's a very high return on investment, especially for the over 20,000 Californians currently waiting for an organ transplant.
On the day of the announcement at the hospital, Jobs and Schwarzenegger took a tour of the facility.
A hospital staffer recalls someone from Apple suggesting a very short tour. But Jobs wouldn't have it.
In fact, at the end of the tour, while everyone else — the Governor's people, Apple's people, and the hospital staff — waited outside the recovery room for the children who had just received organ transplants, Jobs lingered alone with the children.
"Steve was still in there talking to kids," says this staffer. "Steve stayed in there for a while, really enjoying himself."
Why do gnats have such a difficult time with the English language?
Hopefully there's an App for that.
Well said, Lisa. eom
Bill Gates: “I Will Miss Steve Immensely”
October 5, 2011 by Ben Parr
Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and longtime rival of Steve Jobs, has issued a statement expressing his sadness at the passing of Steve Jobs.
In it, Gates describes their relationship as one of “colleagues, competitors and friends over the course of more than half our lives.”
Gates’s full statement is included below:
“I’m truly saddened to learn of Steve Jobs’ death. Melinda and I extend our sincere condolences to his family and friends, and to everyone Steve has touched through his work.
Steve and I first met nearly 30 years ago, and have been colleagues, competitors and friends over the course of more than half our lives.
The world rarely sees someone who has had the profound impact Steve has had, the effects of which will be felt for many generations to come.
For those of us lucky enough to get to work with him, it’s been an insanely great honor. I will miss Steve immensely.”
Bill Gates: “I Will Miss Steve Immensely”
October 5, 2011 by Ben Parr
Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and longtime rival of Steve Jobs, has issued a statement expressing his sadness at the passing of Steve Jobs.
In it, Gates describes their relationship as one of “colleagues, competitors and friends over the course of more than half our lives.”
Gates’s full statement is included below:
“I’m truly saddened to learn of Steve Jobs’ death. Melinda and I extend our sincere condolences to his family and friends, and to everyone Steve has touched through his work.
Steve and I first met nearly 30 years ago, and have been colleagues, competitors and friends over the course of more than half our lives.
The world rarely sees someone who has had the profound impact Steve has had, the effects of which will be felt for many generations to come.
For those of us lucky enough to get to work with him, it’s been an insanely great honor. I will miss Steve immensely.”
Well, of course, it will resume trading tomorrow.
Jeez!
Why wouldn't it?
Good for you. Seriously, I'm glad you enjoy it.
You're on. Now get some sleep. You're hyperventilating over someone's death.
Not seemly, to say the least.
Wait a minute! You just said to short Apple, but you think a penny stock's meaningless Apps are good news?
Hmmm...
You have some serious issues, guy. Hope you get them sorted out.