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And how exactly did I say that?
I offered my opinion as to why the stock was down, and asked if anyone had a better opinion (for my own research into why the stock is being hammered).
And clownsies like yourself accuse me of relishing because the stock is down? I have friends who still own this stock so I hope it goes up (but also friends who were smart enough to take some off the table and aren't obsessed with RIDONKULOUS price targets set by individuals here, who, quite frankly, probably dont understand that this isnt the the same Ariad as the one you knew with 75 million shares outstanding).
It is pretty simple. When Ariad had 20% institutional ownership and was going from 5 to 15, there were no sellers because everyone was buying up to the currently reported 80% institutional ownership.
Now, at 20, institutional ownership is 80% (ergo, everyone is already a shareholder.....who else is left to buy?). So, you have a couple large sellers who want out.....and guess what? Everyone already owns the stock so there are no buyers. Got it?
I am trying to explain WHY you are getting this price action. Perhaps you should just listen to someone else who says this is just a "bear raid" and its going to $90.00 ... cuz thats much more reasonable for your well being.
You really are a joke.
I just want to hear a better idea...which is why I asked the question about why the stock was hammered.
I think: it's simply a sell on the news thing, people bored with "numbers" story, etc., etc.
Wanted to hear other reasons other than it's Adam F.'s fault.
So, why do you think Ariad is worth $3.3B right now?
Because it has a drug that works? Basically $3.3B in "goodwill", and nothing else? And, Ariad should be receiving another $1-2B for revenues of ponatinib on top of that?
Ariad isn't valued at $3.3B right now because of potential sales on second, or third of T315i revenues. It's valued where it is because of the entire lines of CML,....for now.
$3.3B has baked in almost all of ponatinib sales, IMO, and is likely factoring in a lot of all of first, second, and third lines at this point. And, maybe when they reach vastly huge levels of revenues (hundreds of millions) that stock will start factoring in that the current market cap is too low.
Believe my reasoning or not. Doesn't make a difference to me. Not only that, but the stock has gone from $2 to $25 in the past three years.... those things take many months (or years) to digest.
And FWIW, I have no position at all here. In fact, I wish it would go up to $50 for some people.
It's going to take several, many quarters, for Ariad to reach anywhere near a billion dollars in sales.
That's a boring story to a hedge fund manager (who could already be up 100% on the stock)(btw, the easiest/best returns are already behind you here - I don't forsee anyone getting 300-500-1000% in this for a long time - if ever). Hence, the reason I would rather own the "story" of the promising drug with spectacular results, THAN the dripping of quarterly results over several quarters. It's boring to fast(er) money.
'113 is the thing that will bring the next leg up. And, barring no news in that, I have a feeling people might just think they have had enough of a profit here for the time being, and finally taking profits, hence the selling.
BTW, these are just my thoughts....since no one seems to have a better idea other than "its the damn naked shorts" type of stuff.
IMO
I simply came here looking for an educated reason for why the stock is getting hammered today (hoping for a rational explanation). Unfortunately, I got more of the same...
Right. I guess I should only talk about how it's going to $50.00 and stick my head in the sand when the stock is down.
Cheers.
Perhaps they're being proactive?
Feels to me like liquidation (and I would suspect SAC Capital considering the recent weekend trouble with one of their Top PMs)
They're gonna be getting a lot of redemptions.
AIMHO
I tend to agree with Adam's arguments that pona numbers are baked into the cake, fwiw.
So why is this getting trounced today?
SAC unloading getting ready for mega-redemptions?
What say all the gurus?
I wonder if there will be an "update" when the full set of IMS data is included.
If people are really micromanaging these IMS numbers, then next week should show a big uptick.
Will there be an article supporting the bull thesis of a +20% uptick in Iclusig sales?
Probably not!
Indeed. I made nearly 1,000%.
God forbid I take my profits, and hold out for $60.
Enjoy your ramblings.
I am not adding any fuel to any fire.
The stock has 200 million fully diluted shares. You think because I posted the reasons why the stock is underperforming right now, the reason the stock is down? Pro tip: Dan Loeb isn't taking advice from a message board post, neither are Baker Brothers.
I'll try and keep my mouth shut though.... since most of you already have it all figured out. e.g. short attacks ,etc.
LOL - yeah, I really care that I missed the last few points of the run, when I owned stock under $2.00 basis. And then took my entire liquidated position in ARIA and put it into several other stocks that have been great performers.
BTW, how are my messages "negative"? Because I am telling you the reasons why the stock is selling off, and you want to stick your head in the sand?
I hope the stock goes up, I have lots of friends who still own it, fwiw.
Yeah, I don't dislike Ariad, I just think it's now become a "fundamental" story until '113 plays out. And fundamental stories after huge runups take a long time to digest = ie., you get a long flatline and trading range until there's another reason to own the stock. Frustration builds, selling starts.....
I am just surprised that people are talking about getting "killed" with the stock lately, when a ton of the people on this board own the stock in the single digits.
My god. Please tell me some of you guys took a ton off the table????
Best in class for GIST?
LOL, cmon. And, again, it is still way too early to talk about best in class for '113. Hell, any of you guys remember Harvey saying over and over again about "deforolimus" being "best in class" - how did that work out? Afinitor is killing it, and Ridaforolimus is...well,...who knows where Ridaforolimus is.
The $8.00 in 2011 was a gift given to us by the morons in Congress.
I still need to send Boehner and Obama roses for that gift.
$60.00 per share, is what? $12-13 billion fully diluted?
Sorry, I just do not see that at all in the next couple of years considering (a) outstanding shares is huge at this point (and likely to get bigger), and (b) everyone is already "all in" on the stock. It's going to take a tremendous amount of buying power to move this over, even $30, IMO. (which is still a 50% gain, btw).
You have a tremendous amount of IF in there.
It is really way too early to say '113 is a better drug since the data thus far been small. And, what IF '113 has no effect in EGFR patients, or it cannot be dosed high enough to get a good thera-window?
The smart people (who were buying in the single digits) are the ones who have at the very least, scaled down their full position, into a partial position.
The dumb ones are the ones that refuse to sell because you think, for some strange reason, this stock HAS TO be worth $60.00 per share (why, $60?). FWIW, with all the financings, looking at a number (stock price) is stupid; better to look at the market cap of the company. IMO, it is going to take some time for ARIA to digest the current market cap, as most of the ponatinib potential (all of it?) is built into the current price. '113 is the next leg up, not ponatinib sales. In fact, where I sit, I think ponatinib sales will actually be the albatross around the stocks neck going forward because people are going to scrutinze them too much.
Three things happened recently:
1. CEO finally taking profits;
2. Competing ALK getting Breakthrough Designation;
3. Ponatinib sales (weekly) are off (but who really cares? they will make the quarter numbers with ease).
The stock is fully invested. At 80% institutional onwership, theres not a lot more buyers and the story might be getting stale. Enter '113....its really the driver from here on out. Ponatinib is all "numbers" now....its now a fundamental story, rather than a breakthrough drug story. It's sentiment.
Just my thoughts....that's all. I am pretty comfortable watching from the sidelines but truly hope it goes higher for longs. (I just hope the longs who own this at a basis in the single digits arent the ones complaining about the price going down - rather, that should be coming from those who paid $23+)
Wonder what drugs are mentioned in the story..
thanks..oddly, Chrome works fine, but Safari mobile, and Android Mobile the HTML coding is all bad. Its not loading properly on the latter browsers, but Chome is fine.
Thanks.
Is there something wrong with the HTML code of Ihub lately? I cant find a search function anymore, everything is bold...etc etc.
Do you have access to the Tefferi article? If so, can you supply a link, or cut and paste....thanks
GERN
Assuming positive Phase 3 in XOMA, where does this go (stock price) (assuming good environment for equities)?
I am long. I try to stay in oncology, but bought this one because it sounded interesting.
Thanks.
There are companies with > 1B MCs that I can put the money into in the meantime and actually watch it appreciate.
I am not talking efficacy, but more in terms of PK.
Do you know how to look at the preclinical oral activity/bioavailability and to determine if it looks like it will be effective (in terms of absorption) in humans?
CUDC-907
This is Curis and Debiopharm's Hsp90 Phase 2 study design, FWIW (it is in combination with chemo):
http://www.debiopharm.com/images/stories/DownloadCenter/120329_FINAL_Poster_study_Debio_0932-201_ELCC.pdf
4. ARQL has shifted to testing specifically for patient MET status at the time of therapy. (Implication seemed to be that this provides for a more accurate reading of patient MET status when tivantinib is delivered.)
I haven't done any models, I think most fundamental models are useless at this point.
Neverthless, $4B market cap right now is probably building in a lot of ponatinib sales for the foreseeable future.
$60 on ARIA is well north of a $12 BILLION market cap.
I don't forsee that, sorry.
As much as I didnt like Berger, he made me a ton of money (three separate times, in the course of 10 years). He stuck to his guns, IMO, completely put the screws to Merck and got rid of a dud for , what was it, $50 or $75 million for ridaforolimus, and now has ponatinib and '113 and built a $4 BILLION company (quite different than the $75 million company many of us old timers here can remember from back in 2007-2008-2009). Harvey is THE MAN as far as I am concerned....if anyone actually complains about him taking some money out, those people are fools; remember, he invested $3 million of his own money (remember Ocean Partners) at $1.75 and put his money where his mouth is. Hell, as far as I am concerned, Berger deserves to sell several million shares, buy a massive mansion in Greenwich, CT, a yatch in Bermuda, a home in Aspen, and whatever it is millionaires do with their money ---- he built something a lot more important than many of these other clowns like Bill Ackman et al.
I am sure the only people who will bitch about this are those that bought the $23-24 prints.
Whatever, I have no skin in this game here anymore but for those who still own it, I hope it goes to $60 (I dont see that happening, but, I hope it does for you guys)(everyone except for biotechresearcher, that is...lol)
Hell, if I were him, I'd hit the bid on half my holdings, and enjoy the money. It's taken him since 1991 to get where Ariad is now (a $4B company)--enjoy the money.
...because he deserves the money?
You could berate the majority of small cap biotech management in the same manner as the GERN management was today.
The system is a complete joke: at some point, probably in the go go 90s genomics era, salaries got inflated by a few companies. Then these ahole "salary consultants" got involved and started grouping peer companies together and comparing salries within those peer groups. So, you had everyone essentially basing their comp salaries off of everyone elses inflated comp salaries...like a giant circle jerk.
So, in this respect, you now have Mike Morrisey at EXEL and Skip at Geron making well in excess of $1 million in salary a year, for companies that produce little if anything at all, except massive cash burn and shareholder destruction. It truly is criminal the way these companies are allowed to fleece and rip off public shareholders. Even a company like Curis...a company that has failed abysmally across the board....their execs are paid between $500-$1million a year (cash option bonus), and for the most part, the CEO over there cannot possibly have more than 10 hours of real work to do during the week.
Maybe they're just up for sale and in terms of negotiaton. That is the most bullish, and outlandish reason I can come up with.
Agreed with your points. It doesn't seem like they have any idea what the dosing should be. Lack of planning or something it would appear, but I would hope they are smarter than me (maybe not?)
GERN
178 full time employees waiting for one KOL to complete a 28 patient study.
That's really irritating to me.
I am long GERN, fwiw.