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BTH

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Alias Born 06/11/2010

BTH

Re: bellweather1 post# 28234

Tuesday, 04/02/2013 5:11:10 PM

Tuesday, April 02, 2013 5:11:10 PM

Post# of 80490
So, why do you think Ariad is worth $3.3B right now?
Because it has a drug that works? Basically $3.3B in "goodwill", and nothing else? And, Ariad should be receiving another $1-2B for revenues of ponatinib on top of that?

Ariad isn't valued at $3.3B right now because of potential sales on second, or third of T315i revenues. It's valued where it is because of the entire lines of CML,....for now.

$3.3B has baked in almost all of ponatinib sales, IMO, and is likely factoring in a lot of all of first, second, and third lines at this point. And, maybe when they reach vastly huge levels of revenues (hundreds of millions) that stock will start factoring in that the current market cap is too low.

Believe my reasoning or not. Doesn't make a difference to me. Not only that, but the stock has gone from $2 to $25 in the past three years.... those things take many months (or years) to digest.

And FWIW, I have no position at all here. In fact, I wish it would go up to $50 for some people.


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