TA Student
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$10 Silver Is A Sad Thing
SP,
First, I would get the version from Provident myself. I also prefer it given the pricing difference.
Second, I would not have thought silver would have dropped as far as it has now dropped. Worse, it is likely to drop even further. At these prices, I just keep my sterling and wait for better days. My gold, well, I plan on selling it. I need to get some fiat out of it before it goes for nothing.
Finally, I really despise the fact that the price of a physical rare metal is controlled by paper trading. It never should have been allowed, and I still think it is deplorable in the overall picture. Sadly, all I foresee is continuing declining prices due to cheap money and an economy that is disregarding the reality of what is to come.
College Doesn't Take Gold As Payment ):
Milo3,
Today I ran across a person I know from a mutual acquaintance. He, his wife, and I were talking computers and then the conversation turned a bit towards precious metals. He said a person he followed was saying to own physical and not ETFs. He also said this person has noted that the American dollar may bottom in less than five years. I told him I personally felt it would be less than two years.
If I could hold for that long, without needing to liquidate, I would likely do so. I would likely liquidate my gold and sterling and then purchase American silver dollars (Morgans) with most of the earned funds. As I have said earlier, I prefer them over Eagles or Maples.
In the aforementioned conversation, I told them I would likely be liquidating some 14k necklaces, and other gold pieces like earrings and the like. I said I would be needing the money for college. He then said that you couldn't pay for college with gold and laughed a bit as did I.
What a shame. They really, really should consider it. :)
Peace Out,
White Cobra
I'm Facing A Bit of Personal Doubt At This Point
I am working on the light tent and hoping to have most of my gold up for sale this week. I have held and held and tried to add as much as possible. Yet, I think my personal breaking point has been reached.
In short, I need cash in the bank now for things like school in the Fall and upcoming bills when unemployment finally runs out in a little over a month. Granted, I did have a good interview with a well respected company last week. This said, an interview is a long way from being employed and I know there are going to be other well qualified candidates as well.
Looking at the market, all I am really seeing is lower and lower prices for my limited accumulation. Shorts are well in control of the paper market. Those who earlier invested in PMs are now chasing dividend yielding stocks, and it seems everyone is happy to play in La La land for the time being. In short, it seems everyone is happy with ignoring fundamentals and following fabricated market sentiment.
It seems every time there is a reason for PMs to rally, the Fed makes and announcement or some country has a crisis which just happens to strengthen the US Dollar.
Maybe investors know the market is a bubble and are trying to hoard as much wealth as possible before it pops. Maybe investors are watching the metals for such a time with plans of jumping back in. Then again, maybe they are not.
Personally, I think holding PMs is still wise if one can do so and still survive comfortably on other income or assets. At this time, I simply cannot do so with a clear conscious. I may well sell off some of my scrap sterling and convert it to Morgans as much as finances will allow me to.
If I am able to get some up and listed, I will try and post the listings here.
Peace Out My Friends,
White Cobra
A Piece Regarding The Reduction Rumor
Here is a piece from Kitco about how the Feds exit strategy is going to hurt gold. Personally, I think we all know a reduction in QE is economic suicide at this point.
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130513NC_wsj_fed.html
By Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Monday May 13, 2013 2:31 PM
Gold prices could continue to struggle as investors digest the fact that the Federal Reserve is talking about developing an exit strategy for its quantitative-easing measures.
On Friday, the Wall Street Journal’s Fed-watcher, Jon Hilsenrath, wrote an article saying that the Fed has mapped out a strategy to wind down its “unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program.” Hilsenrath interviewed both Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, to talk about an exit strategy.
Neil Mellor, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said that in this environment it could be difficult for gold rally; however, he is not ready to call for a massive selloff as the Fed is still a ways away from implementing an exit strategy.
“I think this is a process were the Fed will take two steps forward and one step back,” he said. “I think the Fed is putting out feelers to see what kind of reaction they see in the market.”
Mellor added that there was some modest market reaction but it has been relatively muted, which is probably what the Fed is hoping for.
As of 1:50 p.m. EDT, spot gold was trading at $1,436.50 an ounce, down $11.60 or 0.80% on the day. At the same time the S&P 500 Index was down slightly more than a point, trading at 1,632. The 10-year Treasury yield was up only 0.028 percentage point to 1.928%.
Mellor said the Fed will be careful because officials don’t want to spook a strong selloff in equity markets, which might not have a major impact on gold prices.
“I think the Feds are faced with an impossible situation so they will continue to walk a fine line for now,” he said.
“I don’t think that gold prices will fall too far,” he added. “There is still a demand for gold, which will help support prices.”
George Gero, vice president and precious-metal strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures, said the Fed’s exit strategy is all about timing. Although the Fed has a plan, there is still a question as to when they will implement it.
In the Wall Street Journal article, Hilsenrath wrote that the Fed will be trying to control expectations, so markets don't overreact to the end of the program.
"I don't want to go from wild turkey to cold turkey," Fisher told the Wall Street Journal. "I think we ought to dial it back."
Gero said he doesn’t expect the Fed to act as any time soon as they haven’t seen any inflationary problems, which is also why gold prices are declining. As soon as inflation starts to rise, gold prices will start to move higher and the Fed will start to implement their exit strategy, he said.
Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors, said that any talk of an exit strategy today is too premature. Although the Fed is trying to limit the surprise of an end to its bond-buying program, there is a more likely event that officials will have to increase it to support a weakening economy, Nichols added.
“I think the news on the economy is going to be more disappointing in the future,” Nichols said. “I think the Fed is not going to be too quick to taper off its program. I think gold will rally as expectations of more monetary stimulus grow.
“I think there is a light at the end of the tunnel but it is a lot further way then most people think,” he added.
And I Add As Well
Milo3,
Wasn't aware of the WST article you mentioned. Thanks for the information. I agree, of course, it lends itself to an upcoming raid by the Cartel.
Personally, I think another serious raid will do little more than encourage another unprecedented round of international buying pressure for physical.
The fact that the Cartel must understand this makes me wonder what they really have in store. Must be something to make PMs as undesirable as possible.
Previous Minutes Eluded To This
Milo3,
Yes, some previous Fed minutes hinted to the possibility of the Fed reducing it's stimulus process by the end of the year. Yet, the latest wording seems to be the same old "wait and see" posture.
To me it is nothing more than propaganda to make the current bubble look credible. Could the Fed also being using it to help the Cartel keep PM prices low and also help prop up the US dollar? In my opinion, the answer is they could and they likely are.
Yet, as the Cartel forces down PM prices. China and other countries just hoard more physical. Also, you may want to check the continuing depletion of physical from the GLD vaults. Amazing how much is suddenly being taken out in the last few months and it just continues.
Personally, I think the more they spread the rumor the more negative and effect it will have on PMs. Yet, I also think serious money playing the current bubble for profit is also watching to know when to move back into PMs.
Personally, I have resisted the urge to sell. I may liquidate my few gold pieces, but plan on just holding onto my silver for the near future if at all possible.
Safely Cleaning Silver (Sterling Especially)- Baking Sold and Salt
XenaLives,
I will need to get some steel shot and try your suggestion. Currently, depending on how clean I want my sterling, I like to use the method shown in the following video.
Note, I find boiling water to be a necessity and I also like to agitate the mixture with a wooden spoon as well. I have personally done this many times and it does indeed work.
Found Some Nice Blackened
Picked up a lot of odds and ends yesterday for $10.70. Almost didn't buy it at first thinking it might be a skunk. Good thing I went ahead and took the gamble.
In addition to a bronze 1978 belt buckle and a nice Fossil necklace, there were some really blackened necklaces which I first thought were costume.
After seeing silver markings on the clasps, I went ahead and cleaned the pieces. Turns out they were indeed silver. They came out beautiful. Honestly, I do not think I have found silver quite this black.
Also found a 14k piece worth around $35.
It is getting harder and harder to find good days like yesterday was, but the hunt continues.
Maybe Some See Silver As The Better Long Term Investment
SP,
What are the reasons some may think silver will outperform gold in the long run? Just want your thoughts on this. Here are the reasons why I think silver is a better, overall investment.
One, I feel the many commercial uses of silver make it more desirable than gold in many ways. Two, front what I am reading, the gold supply is increasing while the silver supply is decreasing. Decreasing physical supply, in addition to commercial demand, make silver attractive.
Adding to this, I feel that the ratio of silver to gold values is still too skewered towards gold. I think the ratio should actually be more balanced when it comes to silver.
If China and other countries created the buying pressure for physical silver like they do physical gold, I think the Cartel would not be able to so easily control it.
Interesting That Gold and Silver Are Holding
Milo3,
True, a flood to the US dollar could well mean a lower market value for silver (and gold). Also, the cheap money fueling this market bubble will likely have investors looking there for profits and away from precious metals for the time being. Yet, I think even the momo chasers are watching for exit signs back into PMs.
Also, I find it interesting that gold and silver have held their ground fairly decently with the all-time high in the DOW and all the activity elsewhere in the market. Normally, I would have looked for a stronger decline in PMs.
Could it be that physical purchases are starting to counter paper prices? Interesting to say the least.
If I Get New Job May Play Some Paper
As mentioned, I had a job interview today with a pretty decently respected company. It seems they liked my interviews, but one never really knows in these situations - especially with a well skilled HR guy at the helm (and he was).
If I do become employed there, I may look at playing some paper in the near future. Personally, I would be playing some paper right now and taking some of the gains back into physical. In fact, I think this may be a decent plan of action over the next few years until this cheap money move starts to shows it ugly reality.
Personally, I would be looking at physical silver and preferably in numismatic coin form. The duality of it's market makes it more appealing to than gold or platinum.
Don't Forget SeekingAlpha
This link will bypass the opening screen asking for an e-mail and a certain number of tickers to follow.
You can also bypass it by simply clicking on Macro View and then choosing the appropriate link to the left.
http://seekingalpha.com/articles?filters=gold-and-precious-metals
Japans New Move - Gold Effect
Rock and Hard Place - DOW Highs
Milo3,
A problem still arises as the Fed continues to pump out cheap money which, in turn, helps fuel huge DOW highs. Just another way to pull some money out of metals and into the bubble.
Also, consider another aspect of keeping things range bound. It allows those caught short on physical inventories time to rebuild those inventories. So, keeping prices range bound might be accomplishing more than producing lukewarm sentiment in the PM markets.
BTW, did the jobs report come out today? Had a good job interview and most of the day was consumed with other activities.
They Are Raiding PMs Again
Silver down to the 23.50 range and gold down as well. If London is closed, I understand what is happening. if not, I see this as a likely raid.
Answer Is Likely Yes
WER123,
I would say it is likely that they would effect your cards. I carry some powerful earth magnets myself and purposefully try and keep them away from my cell phone, flash drive, and any cards containing magnetic strips.
As for the TSA, I am not sure of their ruling on such. I think they have a list of items on their web page. May wish to check that out.
Sometimes They Are Right Despite The Fundamentals
Milo3,
I read there earlier in the year about a likely drop in the metals this year. Though I found some of their reasoning faulty, I also found some of it to be noteworthy.
Even if you disagree with some of the arguments proposed by a writer, do not discard the whole article immediately. Sometimes, there is something new to learn buried in the article.
Discard that which you know is bull, but do not be afraid to modify your current view if some new, reputable information comes your way.
Also Check Out SeekingAlpha
Might also look at the precious metals area of SeekingAlpha. Keep in mind you will find different view points here, but I find it is worth the read.
http://seekingalpha.com/articles?filters=gold-and-precious-metals
Have Any Morgans SP?
SP,
Have any silver Morgans to sell?
Granted - Yet Pressure Still Present
SP,
I agree that they may one day soon cover their shorts with FIAT. I also think some of the recent activity has taken place to slow the physical withdrawal of physical from the vaults.
This said, I still think the short positions will continue to be a force working against decadent rallies. Short term I am still cautious.
JP Morgan's Added Shorts on COT - Beware
I am glad to see this rally, and I am hoping it is a turn in market sentiment. Maybe some paper traders read about the huge physical demand spike and decided to re-evaluate their positions. Not likely, but one can hope I guess.
At this point, I would be careful of a bear trap. On the last COT I am aware of, JP Morgan had added to it's short position even after the huge decline had taken place. Also, with the waterfall that was taking place, you just know there had to be some additional speculative shorts that jumped on the bandwagon.
This being said, if another raid does happen, I would be comfortable buying some additional physical at that point. In fact, if some items I have sell (non PM items), I will likely try to translate part of the gains into some decent Morgan Silver Dollars.
Like WER123, I have a real liking for these coins - even more than bullion pieces.
Shorts Attack Again
Silver down .75 and still dropping. Gold just down about $14 but I don'f like the way things are looking.
Mine Provoking Article - Found This Buried In It
This is a supporting video referenced by the one Stinky Pinky posted (the one I am replying to). I feel both are enlightening and should be watched if you are not already an Economics student.
Profit Or Fear of the Corruption Climaxing?
Just wondering what you may think about this following question.
Is this buying pressure due to a hope for easy upcoming profit or as a sign that many are hoarding in fear that the corruption is about to reach a climax?
I know the answer can be a bit of both. This being said, which do you think is the more prevailing force behind the strong, global buying pressure?
Physical Buying Has Me Thinking Twice
After watching "The Secret World of Gold," and reading article after article about physical demand, I am thinking I may sell just about everything else I gave in reserve but my precious metals.
If I do sell them, I would like to convert the money into silver coins as much as possible.
This being said, I do think JP Morgan will try to push prices down even further. Things are going to be choppy for a while from what I am reading. Sadly, the COT report wasn't what I was hoping for.
Chinese Gold Exchange Sold Out - Starts Importing From Switzerland
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/chinese-gold-exchange-sold-out-begins-importing-switzerland
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society Runs Out of Gold... Importing from Switzerland and London
Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and it’s President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today. Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical gold and silver. While I tend to be skeptical when I hear about silver shortages since these reports have been so exaggerated in the past, the lack of silver coin availability and premiums are the most extreme I have seen since the financial and economic meltdown of 2008. Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.
CBC Program - "The Secret World of Gold" From Last Night
For those who follow Turd Ferguson on Tfmetalsreport.com, you will know he has been speaking about a program the Canadian Broadcasting Company broadcast last night at 9:00 p.m. EST.
Unless you could find a Canadian proxy, it was not viewable in the US. Here are links to it on Youtube.com. If you haven't saw it yet, you may want to take the time to do so.
Trying To Stop Rise
Gold and silver had nice increases earlier but now seem to be under pressure. Gold was in the 1420+ range with silver following suite. Now gold is barely holding 1400.
May be some selling pressure ahead of the COT report at 3:30. Or, maybe 100 plus parties already know what it is. :)
Things To Consider Regarding Possible Rally
I think the COT tomorrow will show commercials are on their way to going net long. I think their overall shortage ratio will decrease. This said, I think there are a few additional things to consider.
First, one needs to consider the damage done to the dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield today. Here is the link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/asian-stocks-drop-on-corporate-earnings-concern-yen-advances.html
Not a big thing within itself, in my opinion. Yet, always watch and see if the dollar starts to go into a weakening trend. Seems something always tends to happen to reverse it and PMs tend to suffer.
Second, there is the issue of Draghi and the Cyprus gold. Here is a Zerohedge article regarding it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall
Personally, I now think it had less impact than the Kitco video I referenced earlier this week. This being said, I do think the possibility of a similar action being taken with Italy and Spain may be lingering in some minds. This lingering may influence PM activity even if it is to a lesser degree than some first anticipated.
On the positive side, it seems that physical buying went through the roof as the technical slaughtering of PMs took place. I understand that China is still showing their love affair with gold, and a COT report showing anything like what many are anticipating could mean the start of an uptrend in gold and silver.
My overall concern is that the market now seems to be moving primarily on technicals and not fundamentals. Our biggest hope of increased values likely lies in the greed of the Cartel - the same parties most likely responsible for the recent decline. Yes, there will likely be larger buying from China and other parties, but the overall power seems to be in paper and not in physical.
Excellent Article Ref There SP
SP,
I really like the article there. It does explain some of the fundamentals of manipulation quite well in simple language. Those not aware of silver and gold manipulation might use this as a beginning of your research.
Listing Clearly States 1/10 oz - Yet...
The buyer will have a clear defense in that the listing clearly states the item is 1/10 ounce. Also, it looked to me like there were multiple bids on the item; it was not a Buy It Now listing.
I understand how easy it would be to simply see the picture and bid. I understand how this could be contrived as sneaky and deceptive. Yet, the description was clear and those bidding need to be responsible in their bidding.
Once I listed a Tiffany & Co sterling necklace. I took a clear, solid pictures and zoomed in a bit to show detail. This is quite common and understood. In the listing I clearly listed the dimensions, length, and other details about the item.
The guy that bought it wanted it for his wife for Valentine's day and asked if I might possibly overnight it to him. I was glad to do so with him paying the extra shipping cost.
I followed up and asked him if they liked the piece. He said his wife loved it but he thought it was a bit larger. I pointed out that my description listed all the details. He concurred and left positive feedback. In his comments he mentioned my assistance in helping him with the rush and then said something like "item as described in description."
I guess it was his way of letting others know they need to read the description. BTW, he was a nice person and I even offered a refund as I recall. He chose not to do so seeing how his wife loved it, seeing my help in the rush, and seeing my listing was accurate and correct.
Always read the description. When I buy, I always try do do this. When I sell, I try to be accurate in every facet and fair. It is important, and it is there for a reason.
Impressive Premium - Silver Now Below $23
Pretty good premium on the junk silver seeing how silver spot is now below $23. It has been battling this afternoon to stay above $23.
Also, I like the 2011 5 oz Silver ATB - Glacier National Park, MT coins if one is using check or wire transfer.
Sadly I Have to Care
SP,
I totally understand what you are saying, but sadly I have to care about lower spot prices seeing how most of my silver is in the sterling form. Sadly, sterling tends to sell at spot or a bit lower and does not demand the resale value of coins or bars despite it's higher silver content in some cases.
I am thinking along the same lines as you in regards to a higher spot price anytime soon. It seems the shorts have the advantage, and I feel new shorts are not going down easily.
At this point, I do wish to sell any silver. I may sell some of my gold out of necessity. If I place any on the Bay, I will try to post them here for anyone interested.
Milo3 - Status Quo To Change
Milo3,
A global currency does not eliminate the possibility of war. This being said, if a world ruler can provide countries with what would have been gained from war, the likelihood of war decreases.
I feel nations will still have some degree of autonomy, but the world leader will still be the true center of power.
Moving onto gold and silver, it seems there is still a lot of selling pressure present. I am concerned that new shorts will not be willing to give up quite that easily and with no catalyst present for an upside swing, I see more damage being done.
Looking Towards Kennedy Halves
While looking for some bargains on Morgans, Eagles, and the like, I discovered something interesting. Simply put, I didn't find any.
This said, I was noticing one could grab some silver Kennedy halves at lower prices. I am thinking these to will likely start to show higher premiums in the near future. As much as I like Morgans, I am finding Kennedy halves to be the preferred choice at this present moment.
It Goes To Global Digital Currency
I think it will end up being a global digital currency in some form or the other.
It may start out as a new global monetary standard to which all other currencies are based. Say the new standard is called a Unex. The American dollar will be worth so many Unex as will the Canadian dollar, the Chinese yen, the Mexican peso, etc.
Then, to simplify the process, it will become a global currency. It will be completely digital, and anyone who wishes to buy or sell anything will be required to be a part of it. Those who oppose will not fair well.
As for whether gold will back this new currency, I am really sure. If it does, or it does not, I feel gold will be worth whatever amount the new world government says it is worth and it's role as a form of independent wealth will likely be limited. One may have it, and it may have value. Yet I do not believe one will be able to access it's value without adhering to the new digital currency and those who are in control of it.
Some still may think this a bit far reaching, but I feel more are starting to at least acknowledge the possibility. Do some research and see how many countries are already calling for some version of this and you may be surprised.
Former US Treasury Official - Fed Orchestrated Smash In Gold
Kingsworld article:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/12_Former_US_Treasury_Official_-_Fed_Orchestrated_Smash_In_Gold.html
Interesting to read and I feel there to be some real truth in here. This being said, I think there is a lot more behind the crash and I feel there is some international influence we should be looking at as well.
Paper Traders - May Want To Catch This Link
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/5725
Basic but seems to be worth the watch.
US Mint Suspends Some Silver Numismatic Products
Seems the lower prices, and physical buying pressure, are taking their toll. Here is the link, and this is today's news and not that of earlier in the year.
http://mintnewsblog.com/2013/04/us-mint-suspends-some-silver-numismatic-products/
WER123 - Here Is Apmex Link
http://www.apmex.com/Category/160/Silver_Eagles___Uncirculated_2013__Prior.aspx