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HRBN - I agree with you totally this time.
Shame on those guys who are doing mindless pumping and mindless bashing.
HRBN - grabbed a few at 16.29/16.30.
It so happened that I sold my last trade yesterday and this panic allowed me to buy back in lower prices.
HRBN - Two pieces of good news vs. barrage of negative comments.
Over the weekend, there was a barrage of negative comments on this boards on HRBN - mostly from one member. It does not take long before those comments are refuted, in part, by two pieces of good news: first the CDB's large loan to HRBN (after significant due diligence from the bank) and second Rodman's BUY rating re-iterated.
There is an ongoing due diligence participated by two of the most reputable Wall Street firms (MS and GS.) We will find out the result of the DD soon. Today's news definitely adds credibility to the side of HRBN's management and reduces the validity of the negative comments.
TXIC - CEO and CFO
I sold my last few shares right before the PINK status.
Before I sold the shares, I read some stories on Yahoo board that detailed the refusal by CEO to sign on SEC filings as part of the power struggle within the company. Per the story, there were deficiencies with the internal control, but 10Q can still be filed noting those deficiencies.
Although I did not own any shares, I tend to think that firing the CEO/CFO is good for shareholders. TXIC would remain in the senior exchange if CEO/CFO signed the SEC filings. That's a better way to preserve some shareholder value than trading on pinks.
Often course, the original shareholders were the ones who committed the original sin. I guess they should be "fired" too.
STV - the stock was trading at 7.26 at the close of Friday.
The dividend is about 27.5%.
HRBN - Bought a little at low 17x.
I am betting in favor of buyout.
Here are my thinking:
1). The PE firm is very serious prior to the start of this DD, otherwise they would not involve big firms such as GS and MS. The relationship with GS and MS are very important for PE firms.
This means that as long as DD is OK, the deal will go through.
2. The DD will focus mainly on the big pictures: future prospect, revenue level and profitability of the company. Those are what actually matters from valuation perspective. Since CEO is part of the buyout, it is likely he is very confident in those areas.
3. Smaller deficiencies within the GAAP accounting will not deter the buyout. Some smaller deficiencies may always find its way due to lack of GAAP trained accountants within the company, and in this case, by association with its current auditor. Those deficiencies generally do not affect the profitability. In a normal deal like this, the PE firm would always pump some money into the company in order to repackage the company for its listing in China and/or Hong Kong. Those deficiencies can always be corrected during the privatization phase.
So overall, I think the chance is very good for the deal.
A little black humor for a fine red day.
Today's Chinese small cap sector does not look pretty. The only stable stock I can see in a flood of red is RINO, which holds like a rock (or shall I say "halts" like a rock?)
Joining the knee jerking reaction of the markets, I am officially, together with other members of this board, expressing my new found admiration for Muddy Waters.
As a group, we are perfect willing to and in fact voting (by giving away our money) in favor of one type of fraud (massive manipulation of the stocks by shorts) vs. another (possible accounting irregularity.) We shall prefer the crime of the first kind because, after all, it happens on wall street. Those smart street guys have already raided half of our money in our company-managed IRA and 401K in the Oct 2008 and had taking away our tax money for fatty bonus. It is only nature that we give away the rest of money in our measly trading accounts to them.
The crime of the second kind, the accounting irregularity by Chinese small caps, is
truly horrible even if it is only a allegation. How dare are you, coming half way from the other world and trying to raise money from us?
Attention, Chinese samll caps. From now on, we officially adopt MW as our new WMD. It shall be bombed against any random member of you. As many of us on this board have already pointed out correctly, even if small percentage of the allegation is true,
your firm is in trouble. Even if none is truly, we can always unleash our second wave of the attack. If you think our Wall Street shorts are damaging, wait until you see our Main Street lawyers.
CCME - my correspondence with Jacky
Following is my email to Jacky and his short response this morning.
Judge from today's trading, hopefully the share buy back started.
----------
From:Jacky Lam <jackylam@mediaexpress.com.hk>
To: xxxxx@xxx.com
Noted and thanks for your comment.
???: xxxxx@xxx.com
????: 2010?11?16? 0:55
???: Jacky Lam
??: Please start buyback and/or announce a dividend
Jacky,
Congratulations to a great quarter. I am really amazed by CCME's continuing excellence in execution.
I was, however, a little bit concerned over the lack of share buyback. While the share prices rose without the actual shares being bought, the lack of buying put a dent on the management's credibility.
Can you start the actual buyback, and announce to the public the actual buys.
Alternatively, you can propose to the board to use some of the $30m earmarked for buyback for a dividend.
Thanks.
CCME - my correspondence with Jacky
Following is my email to Jacky and his short response.
Judge from today's trading, hopefully the share buy back started.
----------
From:Jacky Lam <jackylam@mediaexpress.com.hk>
To: xxxxx@xxx.com
Noted and thanks for your comment.
???: xxxxx@xxx.com
????: 2010?11?16? 0:55
???: Jacky Lam
??: Please start buyback and/or announce a dividend
Jacky,
Congratulations to a great quarter. I am really amazed by CCME's continuing excellence in execution.
I was, however, a little bit concerned over the lack of share buyback. While the share prices rose without the actual shares being bought, the lack of buying put a dent on the management's credibility.
Can you start the actual buyback, and announce to the public the actual buys.
Alternatively, you can propose to the board to use some of the $30m earmarked for buyback for a dividend.
Thanks.
TSTC - One accounting question: if the contract term comes with 12 month payment schedule, what is the best OR right way to realize the revenue:
1) Realize the revenue NOW and have a big A/R, or
2) Realize the revenue per contract terms. This may delay some rev. but there would be much better A/R. Will this improve the cash flow situation?
Thanks.
OT - Building a hotel in 6 days.
A 15-story hotel in Hunan, China was built in six days.
LTUS - Nope, nada, zero concern from the resignation of a jr. doctor who contributes no value to the board whatever. I had not sold one single shares due to the event. I actually took it as a good sign that the company is trying to move to big leagues.
I was, however, a little concerns by the rumor of disgruntled former CFO, but could not find independent verification.
CCME - back to 20
HOD 20.
RINO's new hit piece.
Amazing - RINO started bouncing back as soon as Little is involved.
RINO - Joe, that's good trade. It is 11.4 now.
I bet that the whole hit piece was financed by shorts who need the exit. Now they got the chance...
CHME
Does that mean no dilution forthcoming?
"No leniency has been granted by OEP for dilution terms in the financing."
Good analysis. I agree that LTUS should be a $3 - $4 stock by end of 2010, which is 2x to 3x from today's close.
Remember that LTUS' new building will be in place early next year, the rev/income should increase significantly in 2011. It could be another multi bagger.
If CCME hits the 16's, the management should really do something about it. For example, they can announce the actual buyback or a dividend. Also, it is time for GH to upgrade the stock to buy now.
RINO - Interesting.
Rino's customers are large steel companies with tens of thousands people. BaoSteel, for example, is a $30B company with 109000 people and many, many factories. How can Muddy Water confirm the lack of relationship is beyond me.
Adding - I assume most people are reducing, not adding today.
I added some CCME Nov 22.5 contracts. Gambling money betting for upcoming IBD listing.
Just added some CCME at 18.80 (stinky bid got filled.)
RINO -
Muddy Waters really needs good luck this time. The stock is already 50% shorts, and any down turn will be limited by the need to recover.
Rate Hike - Impact is hard to predict.
Last time (a few weeks back) when China increased the rate, Shanghai stock actually rallied after a very short pause. Our space had the best rally of the year.
CCME - still high short interests.
When Oct 15 short interests came out, I pointed out that a lot of those shorts were very "sticky". I must say I am more impressed/amazed by the high short interests as of 10/29. I am starting to admire their stubbornness.
I had sold off some of my CCME. Now I am thinking about buy back some of the shares tomorrow.
-------
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/29/2010 3,558,044 1,017,759 3.495959
10/15/2010 4,391,637 1,100,003 3.992386
9/30/2010 4,443,318 968,152 4.589484
9/15/2010 3,311,233 578,226 5.726538
8/31/2010 2,992,279 459,713 6.509015
8/13/2010 2,467,724 432,644 5.703821
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=CCME&symbol=NFEC&selected=CCME#ixzz14p6FSuN3
CCME - 20.88
Amazing bounce back during "accumulate" phase.
Looking back, my call of 22.20 as the rest stop for the bus was almost genius. Yesterday's high was 22.30 during regular hours. So my prediction is right to the decimal point.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56240493
NEP - loving the action. My Nov 7.5 option is looking very good.
AERL - Tim is very quick in his trading. He buys a small stake, sends out an alert, his subscribers bid up (or down) the stock, he sells the stock to them. He looks like a hero each time.
Some way to make a living.
ONP - I gave credit to ONP management, who was very proactive in the whole crisis. Hopefully the investigation result will vindicate them.
Although I dislike Muddy Waters for their unethical behavior, they did have the most detailed analysis among the many shorts in Chinese small caps. Also, they were smart and wrapped up their shop quickly, making big money along the way.
Majority of the short followers were not so lucky, they lost money big time.
XING - This is great news for XING.
China realizes that molybdenum is a national resources, which means that the export will be tightly controlled. If rare earth is any guide, and the molybdenum price will jump.
XING's main product are molybdenum mining. It is a very undervalued stock due mainly to its painful transition from a telecom manufacturer to resource mining.
"the Asian nation would “limit molybdenum mining from next year by classifying it as a national mining resource,”
CKGT - great day today. Up 17.6% to 1.40.
Hopefully you have not sold it. I put some bid last week but did not get any shares.
CCME - Interesting thoughts. But I am too nice to do it. Plus, when CCME is $40, I am more than happy to spend a few shares of CCME as a gift for them.
"CCME--Derek, some of those loud-mouthed shorts might serve up very well as stuffed "turkeys" on a Thanksgiving table. "
What to buy next.
Rames, you have two choices: You can print out your fixyou stock list and throw dart onto it. Most of those names still have very depressed PPS. With Uncle Sam printing money like a mad man, the paper will flow into the asset market. Those Chinese stocks will move (significantly) higher in coming months.
Or you can go for a more coordinated approach. I like coal play. LLEN/CHGY are two good choices. Chines coal prices are moving higher. Chinese coal stocks should move accordingly.
CCME - we need buy some beer for whoever is behind the forecast.
Still remember that they predicted the PPS of over $20 in parabolic shape when chatters from the shorts threw out predictions like $3/$1.
Now about $40 ($39.22) by the Thanksgiving day? If it comes close to this number, I am going to send a Thanksgiving Turkey to those guys.
"CCME - robot a day ahead of schedule
www.stock100.com/plotForecast.asp?symbol=ccme&history=250&future=30
CCME - Rato: I hope you have not grouped CCME into the companies that "credibility or legitimacy" has been called into question. I still remember a beautiful article from you that stated exactly the opposite.
Yes, I am kind of disappointed that CCME has not bought back shares (need more info on this though.) I would not use the f word though. I think it is too strong. It is hard to find a company that have done so many things right. They just can not do everything we wanted.
BTW, your previous articles (prior Sept) were full of thoughtfulness and insights. I was kind of surprised by your negative tones in many of your recent postings, however, especially considering that Chinese stocks went parabolic just when your views turned negative. You (almost) called quite a few companies as scam or fraud (e.g., UTA/YUII). You would be losing money if you shorted them.
Buyback - Rato, I found this statement of yours are utterly out of truth.
" it seems that these chinese companies always talk but never deliver"
There are plenty of Chinese companies paying dividends regularly. For example, PTR, SNP, and other US listed Chinese companies paying US investors each quarter.
Alibaba, a Chinese eCommerce company, offered to pay Yahoo $11B dollars for the 39% stakes Yahoo acquired 5 years at a cost of $1B. Yahoo refused to sell.
Just think about it: If the deal proceeded as Alibaba wanted, Chinese growth companies paid back all the PIPEs money they get from US investors.
CCME - Joe, even if the EPS drops a little at 4Q, which would not happen, CCME is still a very under valued stocks from every fundamental indicators. There are plenty of room for PPS to go upward.
The short can shout whatever they want but nobody is listening to them any more. Just look all the stocks shorts attacked lately, they did not make money in any of them.
"... if I were a short deep in the hole, I'd be screaming at the top of my lungs... "
China Coal - Back to Play again.
Many of us had already see the parabolic moves of PUDA last week. LLEN is not too far behind. CHGY is waking up. SZGH may also join the foray if it can get its house in order.
One of the major catalysts: China coal prices are expected to rise further in the fourth quarter due to seasonal storage and the possibility of a colder than usual winter.
Some references:
Article 1: Reuter: China Coal-Prices hover at 10-mth high, seen rising further
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE6A408920101105
"China's thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port, a domestic benchmark, clung to recent gains and lingered at a 10-month high, as fast-dropping temperatures lifted demand and helped draw down port stocks.
Prices could strike above 900 yuan ($135.1) a tonne by the end of the year due to seasonal storage and the possibility of colder-than-usual winter, traders and analysts said.
Chinese coal prices are already trading close to the high above 850 yuan ($127.6) posted in January this year, when prices rose steeply as China's worst snowstorm in 50 years cut supplies and pushed demand sharply higher.
...
Article 2: Coal price spike warms producers' pocketbooks
http://business.globaltimes.cn/china-economy/2010-11/589631.html
Article 3: This article talks about the coal plays outside China.
http://business.financialpost.com/2010/11/05/stock-picks-to-play-chinas-need-for-coal/
This is a lousy translation of Chinese into English
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI1/5958515.shtml
Original piece:
http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI1/5958515.shtml
PUDA/LLEN/CCME - PUDA: Great moves here. I think it is one of the best stocks long term. Although I missed this run, I was in Puda many times, and made money each time. I entered LLEN heavily over the last two days vs. options, as it may catch up with PUDA.
Regarding CCME, I am guilty as your charged. I contributed fair number of "chats" to this board. When the chats about CCME started early this year, I was mostly on the sideline. Then CCME was under heavy attack by the shorts during August/September, I started defending the stock on the board (and my posting on CCME increased.)
No regret here. Zip, zero, Null.
Puda, Really nice up trend.
Wonder if LLEN will join the party.
Your buddy should thank god/alah/budda for not letting him do the shorting.
While its OK to lock profits, why do the shorting? There are at least as much chance that the stock gaps up Monday and keeps running into the 30s as it goes down a few dollars.