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Thanks, madclown.
I had not seen your post before providing the link to the similar write-up on this.
Good info.
Welcome to this board.
Good day, all.
Check out this link regarding Tronox.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=80487
I agree. Best thing is to just sit tight and not become a victim of their manipulation. This activity and the impact it has on the share price does not refect the true value of the stock, so best to just sit tight and wait for the good news we are all waiting for. Then the trading interest will explode and wash these manipulators out of this stock........I hope.
What you are describing seems to exactly fit the pattern they use consistently. And with the low open float on the shares, it allows them to do this pretty much without other factors impacting their game.
That is the confusing part of all of this. It is almost as if they go fishing for shares and see what they can catch using the bid and the ask.
I don't know enough about the tactics they can use to do this.
I would imagine they are making alot of money in the process or they wouldn't keep doing it.
I give up trying to figure what they are doing to this stock and how. However, it must be fairly easy to manipulate or they would not keep doing it. Morning and afternoon trading activity certainly suggests the patterns of day-traders.
This will eventually come to an end when there is more clarity around the future of the common shareholders.
I guess until then I just watch and stay amused.
Best regards to all.
This is exactly what we would want to see this morning. Good volume and rapid price movement. Let's see what happens the rest of the day. This whole week could be interesting!
Yes, good to see some good early action. Also, it is nice to see the A and B shares trading close to equal to each other. This may suggest that last week we flushed out some of those traders who were manipulating the shares. I hope we see more pure trading take place that week, which would confirm those holding the stock are now in for the longer term.
Good morning to all.
Mid-January will be interesting times!
One would think that if the shares were very tightly held before the past weeks trading sessions, they are even more tightly held now. All the weak holders have been shaken out over the past several trading sessions. Those who are committed probably picked up more shares further consolidating the ownership.
This combined with the Christmas break may make for a very quiet trading session today.
I think we could be pleased the the share price is holding where it is now. A good sign!
Good day to all.
Happy holidays to all!
I wish everyone on this board the very best of the holiday season and the very best for all of us in the New Year. I think we can all feel good about our position at this stage in the process.
As newtechinvestor has stated, getting this auction off the agenda is a significant win for us. Everything will fall into place in the days and weeks ahead. I truly believe this.
Also, I want to say that those who participate on this board have made this one of the best investment boards I have ever listed on. All very professional contributions from everyone and no BS! Thanks for maintaining this board with a high level of integrity with great information, comments and views for all investors.
Lastly, I think we all owe a HUGE THANK YOU to newtechinvestor for his moderation of this board and all of his research and rapid posting of timely information for all of us. Hats off to you, newtech! It is because of newtechinvestor that this board is of such high value to all Tronox investors.
Cheers!
newtech, well stated.
I maintain confidence in this Equity Committee. They have their act together and obviously, those shareholders on the EQ representing the rest of us have as much or more at risk than most of us do. I own a substantial number of shares, however, I know some of the EQ members hold an even more substantial number of shares.
Another interesting reference in the court document was the reference of the sale of Millennium Inorganic Chemicals to Cristal a couple of years ago for $1.3 billion. Millennium was the No.2 global producer after DuPont. Cristal was the No.9 producer when they bought Millennium, so after the purchase, Cristal became the No.2 global producer.
However, in this purchase, some of the Millennium sites had poor cost positions, and in fact, they have already shut down the Le Havre operation in France which had significant losses for years. And, one of their plants in the US appears to be indefinitely idled.
The remaining assets of Tronox, as you have noted, should be valued at least at $800 million. The new Tronox will have annual TiO2 production capacity close to 500,000 tonnes. Cristal's annual capacity is somewhere between 750,000 to 800,000 tonnes today.
Also, I maintain confidence in Judge Gropper. It would be difficult to imagine how under a restructuring plan you could exclude the shareholders, especially given all the alledged fraudulent activity of Kerr McGee prior to the spin-off of Tronox to shareholders in 2006. If the original IPO had not have had so much "toxic" background, shareholders would have less of a case.
The one confusing outcome so far is that the EPA seems to have worked out an arrangement with Tronox on all the environmental liability without really going back at Anadarko to hold them accountable. Perhaps this part of the story is not over yet either.
Let's see what happens today!
After some early session dumping, the trading on the shares has slowed significantly over the last half hour.
Let's see what happens with the trading pattern into the later part of the session.
Totally agree. This story is far from over. Let's see what the Judge has to say about all of this. Also, if shareholders have any say in the voting on the new restructuring plan, who would ever approve of such a structure where we are left with nothing.
This news will certainly shake out all the shareholders that do not want to take any forward risk, which may be healthy in the days ahead. However, those like us who have large stake in these shares will hold knowing that this process isn't over. It is far from over!
I am sure the the EC will want to get in front of the Judge very quickly. Let's see what other news breaks today and tomorrow.
Interestingly, it looks like the auction is off for this week!
Huntsman also won't be very happy about all this!
I am holding all my shares as well. I refuse to accept that after all this, including involvement of the EC, that shareholders will be left with nothing.
Thanks for confirming these dates! I knew one of them was March.
Next week could hopefully be more exciting and gratifying than past weeks!
But if not, I'm hanging on to the end! Holding too many shares now.
As usual, newtechinvestor, you make all good points!
Also, in regard to macjockey's question about re-emergence from bankruptcy timing, I recall seeing a request for extension of filing a bankruptcy plan in the court documents until sometime in March, and then time for voting and approval of the BK plan.
However, I cannot access the kccllc.net/Tronox site for some reason to allow me to reconfirm the dates. I know you also follow the court documents. Do you recall the actual dates and have you seen this document requesting extension?
I will try again tomorrow to get back on the court documents site. Don't know why I am having problems tonight!
Others on this board will probably give you a better reply than me, however, I will give you my opinion. I have been in the TiO2 business for over 20 years now. Tronox was/is our competitor and I know alot about them. Their strengths: good technology, great products, and a couple manufacturing sites with great cost structure (Kwinana and Hamilton). They also had/have some sites with poor manufacturing cost position (Savannah and Urdegin). Botlek is somewhere in the middle.
Under restructure, Tronox would remain in operation with Kwinana, Hamilton and Botlek, plus the other small electrolytic chemicals business. On average, they would have one of the best TiO2 cost positions in the business, after DuPont, of course. Under BK, they have already removed Urdegin from the equation and Savannah is now down.
So, from a pure profitability position, under re-emergence from bankruptcy, the company would look great, except for those environmental liabilities. Also, prices in the business are increasing, especially in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Middle East and Africa adding huge revenue next year!
If all the assets are sold off, one must then wonder how they would ever be able to compensate for any of those environmental liabilities with no revenue. The only way that would happen would be to throw all this liability back to where it came from, Anadarko/Kerr McGee, or for the government to pick up the tab. The EPA/US government know this as well, and they don't want to get stuck with the bill. Thus, they are going after Anakarko/"New Kerr-McGee" as well.
Monsanto tried to do the same thing with the spin-off of Solutia, and that didn't work. I think the same will happen here, regardless of asset sale or re-emergence.
So, I see only upside. Maybe this is why the shares are being held so tight! The assets will never sell as low as $415 million. Even $700 million would be a steal for an interested buyer. DuPont is attempting to build a plant in China for close to $1 billion alone. They would probably pay a significant amount just to get Kwinana since they have had so much trouble in China with approvals. Even the Chinese would love to have chloride technology, which few producers posess (DuPont, Tronox, Cristal, ISK, Kronos, and to a less extent Huntsman Tioxide). Huntsman needs these Tronox assets to survive long-term. They have only high cost sulphate technology plants, mainly in Europe, . Only one chloride operation in the UK and a JV in the US with Kronos. Without restructure of their TiO2 business, they are in trouble. That is why they are so upset about this asset auction possibly not taking place.
So, those of you who are long, hang in there. Your day is about to come one way or another, in my opinion of course!
Over 41 million shares outstanding and trading in the A and B shares only at 13,000 shares after 2 hours trading. Amazing! These shares may be now held by fewer investors than I ever imagined, and held tightly. Otherwise, this just does not make sense, especially with the increase in news on the auction and possible emergence from bankruptcy.
I think today will be an important day to see some above average trading volume ahead of the auction process next week. Let's see what happens today and hope for some more sensible trading activity!
Tronox Will Go Ahead With Auction Amid Restructuring Negotiations
1:19 PM EST | December 15, 2009 | Nancy Seewald
Tronox says it will continue with plans to auction off substantially all of its assets in U.S. bankruptcy court. The auction is scheduled for December 21, with an approval hearing scheduled for the next day. The auction had initially been scheduled to take place on December 8, but earlier this month Tronox postponed the date and indicated that it may not hold an auction at all. That announcement prompted Huntsman, which in August reached an agreement to acquire most of the titanium dioxide (TiO2) and electrolytics assets of Tronox for $415 million, to file a lawsuit in an attempt to force the auction.
Meanwhile, Tronox says it is in negotiations with the creditors’ committee, a group of holders of Tronox’s 9.5% unsecured notes due December 1, 2012, and federal agencies on a term sheet that would provide a framework for a Chapter 11 plan of reorganization. The negotiations contemplate debt financing and an equity commitment of $105 million by the Ad Hoc noteholders. These funding sources would be used in part to provide $115 million to fund certain environmental remediation trusts and a litigation trust that form part of a comprehensive settlement of Tronox’s legacy environmental liabilities.
Tronox filed for bankruptcy in early 2009 citing a need for relief from legacy environmental liabilities. Tronox incurred the liabilities when it was spun off in 2006 by Kerr-McGee, which has since been acquired by Anadarko. The liabilities include environmental remediation and litigation costs that Tronox was required to assume responsibility for at the time of the spin-off. Most of the liabilities are not related to its TiO2 operations.
I think all the shares are so tightly held and have been for quite some time. I have been acquiring shares for about 2 years and I know others who have been doing the same. After bankruptcy filing, those who know Tronox kept buying up all the shares. The B shares have always seemed to trade lesser than A shares for years. Most small investors never understood the difference and just assumed A shares were better to hold than B shares.
Anyway, the upside potential here is huge and the major shareholders know this. Tronox is a great company with great technology tightly held by only a few TiO2 players. Currently, the day to day trading on such thin volume is meaningless and one should not get concerned with all this bid-slapping going on each day.
Good things will come to those who remain patient!
I have to somewhat agree with newtechinvestor. If Tronox were to emerge from bankruptcy as Tronox and not sell the assets, the share price would easily go to $5 to $10, assuming environmental liabilities all go back to KMG. Tronox would have one of the best operating cost positions in the business, only second to DuPont. Additionally, any positive outcome from the adversary complaint against KMG would add even more to the share price, but that outcome could take months or years, unless Anadarko chooses to settle, which is probably what may happen.
In any event, the Huntman offer of $415 million will not hold. This price is far too low and other interested parties will come to the auction. The $415 million is what Hamilton alone is worth. The 50% portion of the Kwinana Tiwest venture is worth at least another $250 million. Botlek is a wash and the electrolytic chemical operation add a little. So, it would be difficult to believe these assets go for less than $650 million, and that would be a great deal for the buyer at this price. So, a share price of over $1 is easily justifed, and if the assets are liquidated, perhaps $3 per share is more realistic.
I think liquidation will take place, although emerging from bankruptcy with all the assets remaining with Tronox would be a much better outcome for us shareholders!! Tronox, without all the legacy liabilities is a great company with great technology and excellent products. Interested buyers already know this.
In any event, there is still huge upside from here. Other signs that market makers are involved is the spread that remains between the A and B shares. This will all wash out soon. Most investors are now holding their shares as there is very little downside risk from here. Trading volume is almost non-existant, which is good. I'm holding my shares to the end!!
Good luck to all, your day will come.....and soon.
The current trades are almost meaningless and do not represent the sentiment around the majority of the shares, which is masked at this time. Very thinly traded because those who hold the shares know there is more upside potential and downward pricing pressure is only short term, market manipulation. We need to wash out all the low volume trades, and this currnet trading action is actually very healthy. Price will be back up and most likely over $1.00 as we get closer to the stalking horse auction on December 8th.
Stay long and you will be rewarded.........significantly!
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity if you already hold shares at a cost below the current trading prices.