The hell you say. I have been voting against these excessive option grants for YEARS, ever since it was put to the vote. JimLur and others chastised me on the old RB boards for my vehement opposition to it, but I saw how it would turn out -- BoD/Management getting rich while the stock goes nowhere, and the average working employee (for whom the plan was supposedly for, NOT the Management) getting the SHAFT (as proven by the statements in the 10-K referring to the large numbers of granted options that expired worthless ... you KNOW that while managements options strike at $7ish the workers are getting strikes at, say, $30+ ... a total screw-job and most of you that voted seem to eat it right up every time the vote comes around).

IDCC leadership and investors like you and I have nothing in common. We need the company to succeed in order to make large amounts of money -- IDCC leadership just needs IDCC to stay in business for a couple of years to make large(r) amounts of money (I say larger since they have all made themselves multimillionaires off of options grants in the last 2-3 years, even though the stock has declined 75% in value over that time period).

So I know, I know, I am too vehement blah blah blah about options grantings, but I am consistent (I remember being told that after the billion dollar ERICY settlement no one would care -- guess not eh?) and more importantly I am RIGHT.

Yeah, this subject upsets me more than almost anything else. Why? Because everytime those bastards sell $k's of option-shares they are stealing money right out of our pockets.

I have been wondering ...

... why would IDCC state that there is a company out there indemnifying against IDCC, but refuse to name that company. That would be like rfusing to tell us that Sharp was having second thoughts about a new contract -- it is material, it is supposed to be of public record, and it certainly is information that would impact a potential investors decision making process. If, say, ADVC was doing this we could all laugh -- but if QCOM is doing this then it would be time to rethink things.

All I know is, if the insiders sell out before releasing the information, and that information is extremely negative ....

From the amount of passionate posts I read today ...

... I'd say there are all of four true investors on this board, and everyone else here is just an average-joe workingman listening (or not) to their broker -- or worse, still trying to do it themselves without any skill, experience or education.

Passion has no place in investing.

Well at least the chip deal is about to reach fruition -- 1st quarter 2004. This company may make something of itself, in spite of its handlers.

nohotin,

You know what -- I had a three paragraph reply that delved into details, but mickey has already said what I though he wouldn't say, and that's enough for me. I doubt I would ever be able to put a dent in his faith, and when I think about it I really wouldn't want to anyway -- he was insufferable for over a month the last time he was down on IDCC management, and I like him better when he is cheerleading than when he is miserable.

So message deleted, insert new message here----> have a good night, and have fun over the next 18 months everyone.

Mickey, hold your shares, get rich, be happy.

You know mickey,

I think I was kind of saying that -- I sometimes *feel* like an idiot for reading your posts. I give what you say no, as in zero, credibility it is true. However, your posts have an aweful appeal -- sort of like a train wreck. No matter how many times you have been dead wrong over the years about the details, you continue to believe that everything you say *this time* is right and true.

As for what you've said, I am certainly not going to go through tens of thousands of old posts on this the RB and the Yahoo boards just to prove that you said what you said. If you want to deny it, that's fine with me.

In any case, you do have two saving graces that are working wonders for you; 1) You are pretty amiable and likable, despite your consistent wrongness, and 2) you are long IDCC, even if for all the wrong reasons. Just know that if you try the same thing on almost any other stock/situation it will not work out well, in all probability.

I know Jim, we agree on most things and that's why I was giving you a little support. :)

I don't even know why I read your posts mickey. We argued for over 2 years about the settlement amount re: ERICY, and I was right. You were about $966,000,000 short from your estimate that you on many ocassions claimed to know for fact from "insiders." Does that even phase you a little?

Ah but Jim you are only reading part of my post ...

... I said once IDCC goes through its resistance ±25 then the charts will be useless until such a time in the future that a pattern has reestablished. Right now they do have some limitted usefullness for short-term trading ... but over the next 12 - 18 months it will be the new revenue flow which will determine things. After that, then charts can once again be a usefull tool.

In recent memory, probably the best example of this is NXTL. If I had followed the charts to the exclusion of everything else I would have never been a buyer under $5, but by following the money, and buying just before the money became apparent, I was able to have a position before a new pattern emerged (which was about 300% above the old pattern level).

spree you're too hard on Jim ...

it may be simplistic thinking, but it was true. Simply put, right now there are too many people willing to sell at $23, so we aren't going any higher until they run out of shares. In 1999 yes, 1 day we were at 10, then 20, then 30, the 50, then 80. What was the difference? No one was selling.

Make no mistake though, the sellers will be gone soon.

Once $25 is crashed you can throw out the charts and resistance lines too. The only thing chartist will have to go on are 4-year old numbers, which are not only inadequate but silly and stupid to use in this context. I am sure many people without a well rounded investing background will still try to use them, but they [the chartlines] will be meaningless in most cases. It sounds old-fashioned to some of you I am sure, but look at the numbers -- money is now the new driver, and not just expectations and hope. Follow the money and you won't go wrong. Follow the charts and you may as well be throwing dice.

teecee,

I didn't say that Institutions weren't buying, just that the shares traded suggest to me that while there is steady buying there is no "frenzy" as of yet. I think that some of the fence-straddlers will wait for the money to show itself, and then buy in at an even higher price.

teecee,

I have to disagree with your statement about IDCC being in the middle of a Institutional feeding frenzy. While there is some accumulation, I don't think 1 - 2 million shares/day can really be called a frenzy. Once the revenues are in IDCC's pocket and firmly accounted for, then look for a frenzy. Until then, it's just the smart money adding to their positions.

On that subject, and having missed the cc, I wonder what quarter the settlement money will hit IDCC bank account in? Will it start now or next Q?

Also, crossing 3 message replies now, I own more shares than most IDCC insiders and I am not selling. What kind of idiot sells the shares of a stock right before it's earnings increase by thousands of percent? I understand that insiders have to schedule their sales, and were probably trying to outguess the market, but you people that are trying to bash the stock I ask: have you seen the projected earnings yet? I mean, seriously, you only get a chance at ground level on something like this rarely. MSFT in the late 80's, QCOM in the early 90's, IDCC in the late 90's/early 00's. This isn't 1999, and those earnings are really not up for dispute or debate.

These are just my first thoughts based on what news I have seen recently ....

IDCC has achieved profitability based on the 4th quarter results of the NEC and Sharp agreements, or at least roughly break-even over the next year or so. Because of this existing base, and the nature of IDCCs revenues, additional agreements look to have an outsized impact on earnings due to the very high margins they will have.

Even without 3G agreements firmly in place "the big 3" for IDCC (NOK>SAM>ERIC) are now estimated to bring in a base of about $150,000,000 annually. Again this will be on top of the roughly $100,000,000 annual that IDCC is already apparently bringing in from its other agreements.

I am not exactly sure where this will lead though. Never having seen IDCC earn this kind of profit, I can only guess at the margins and correlating pe's and eps's. My best SWAG for a solid year, excluding one-time initial income surges based on settlements, seems to be putting net earnings around $97,300,000 (about $1.77 p/s).

Again, that excludes; any additional nonrecurring royalty payments that may occur, any calander-related impacts, any chipset related revenues (such as with IFX) any 3G royalties (or even 2G royalties) not already covered in current agreements (assuming NOK is on board) and any mysterious pnemonia-flu-sars-cold like conditions you may get while traveling in China.

All numbers are based in part on reported statistics, and in part on my own estimation of profit margins (something very new in the IDCC world).

editorial comments: I see a lot of upside, much more than I did in '99 when I though IDCC was running ahead of itself. While my opinion on IDCC has been bullish for 5 years now it has been completely bullish only on the very long term outlook. Now I am completely bullish, since all of the objectives have now apparently been met (and see, 5 years of saying IDCC would settle for 300M or LESS without the stock collapsing was proven right, because it's the future royalties that drive a stock more than a one-time payment for past deeds). In any stock there will be room to trade in and out, short and long -- but at this point until a trading pattern has been established (which won't happen until revenue growth settles down) I expect this stock to only attract the inexperienced traders who may get lucky on occasion, but will get ground up over time. They will be fun to watch though. :)

My SWAG -- Take it with a grain of salt or a spoon full of sugar if you want.

(oh, you want a pps SWAG? I don't like to do those -- who knows what extremes the general market will or won't go to when accumulating high-growth stocks like IDCC? What, you really want one? OK OK I submit that IDCC will pass $23 by no later than tomorrow, and may or may not reach a higher level by the end of the year hehe :). )

The same legal team is representing ERICY in both the HRS and IDCC cases, and ditto for IDCC (co-counsel I believe). There was nothing factually wrong there, you are just confused by a poorly worded sentence (it is from Europe, so what do you expect).

ellis, do what you have to do. I don't mind. Anyone who thinks that a wider disbursment of knowledge to the general public is in any way a bad thing has ulterior motives on their mind, and not the best interests of investors.

It seems as if recently the tone of this board has changed, and become more secretive. It has moved to a backwater site where there is almost zero chance of new members reaching it, the "strongest" supporters no longer want anyone outside of their clique to know anything about Interdigital ... I don't know what is happening, but it doesn't seem like the board is taking the right directions.

teecee, why would you make a stupid comment like that? Do you go around trying to start arguments? <eom>

Dave,

While in concept we are in agreement, in the details we disagree completely. I don't waste too much time or money purchasing lotto tickets (aka contracts that are extremely out of the money aka IDCC 25's and 30's -- though I do spread the money around somewhat for trading purposes), I stick to in-the-money long term options or slightly out-of-the-money longer term contracts -- remember, this isn't about making a quick buck, it's about being able to get back into IDCC for $5 - 10 per share while in the short term freeing up money for investments elsewhere (while of course reducing nearly completely any risk I have in IDCC).

I think that anyone looking at that as a bearish indicator is ignorant of many investing strategies.

I also think (in agreement with Once) that anyone looking at board pessimism or negativism as any type of indicator is also ignorant of the way things work (using the broad mentality of the overall markets are debatable, but using the feeling on any one specific board, or the feelings of any one individual such as mickey, is ridiculous -- I've heard so many "I take these bearish posts to be a bullish sign" statements in the last 3 years that it isn't even funny anymore).

I've been investing / trading in IDCC for 5 years now and the company is as strong as it has ever been. However, knowing that a company is stronger than it was doesn't mean I think that I should put all my money into it, nor does it mean it won't be a poor long term investment -- it simply means that the company is stronger than it was 5 years ago. Nothing more, nothing less.

To the person who is asking about other peoples investments, my contracts are in the money, and they are worth more than I paid for them. Taking that into account, and taking into account my trades in IDCC over the years (I keep detailed files :) my average price per share in IDCC is now ($47). That means, fyi and because you are asking, that for every $1 I invested in this stock I have $48.

Now my only worry in this investment is whether or not this thing with ERICY will be settled before my 5th Anniversary (I am taking a month in Tahiti this summer with my wife and I know this damned thing will drag out and then settle, one way or the other, while I am out of contact with civilization).

Anyway, that's mostly my opinion and view of things. Feel free to see it different -- it makes no nevermind to me.

A couple replys, a couple thoughts ...

... so no big surprise mickeys latest rumor turned out to be false ... even less surprising is that he seems to be blaming IDCC and accepting no responsibility ... as if IDCC owed it to mickey to do what his rumors tell them to do ...

... Jim I disagree with your many-times stated opinion on options. I greatly reduced (read: nearly eliminated) my equity position in IDCC some weeks ago (I really thought $15-16 was the top, didn't think $19 was in the cards) and have been stringing along with in-the-money options ever since. Every month I get cashed out of a position and move the money into the next group of options. Right now I have options out to Sept. I lose a few hundred dollars of my profits every transaction when IDCC is headed down, but I protect all of my core investment, almost all of my profits, and I can still buy everything back if IDCC settles.

Options are only dangerous to greedy persons.

Also, has anyone heard the status of the NEC monies? I got the distinc impression that NEC is about to start playing hardball again, though that is just my personal feelings and I think everyone knows I always look for and plan on the worst ...

Well ok maybe that was a little harsh, but

damn it Mickey while you have the right to express your opinion (which has always unfortunately been dead wrong over the years) you do NOT have the right to post false hopes and rumors as if they were fact. This is known as fraud, and you commit this fraud every time you say something about how you "know" X will / has happened because of your "sources." The only sources you have are the Internet and your imagination, as far as I am concerned. If your imagination is running rampant then fine, post away -- but be clear about what is your imagination and what is fact (which you are not doing, to the detriment of anyone foolish enough to take your posts at face value).

I think that's all I will say about this for now.

For God's Sake Mickey, shut up already ...

... I don't want to be harsh, but damn it all man you are already on record last year for saying your "sources" had confirmed that the ERICY deal was finished and would be announced in September. Will you ever give it a rest? I think your post violated several of the rules that were stated for this forum, and I know that they certainly violated sanity and reason. Please, state your "source" (who has apparently been giving you nothing but bad info for years) and let's have it all out.

"give me a name of a major corporation whose sole revenue is IPR licensing."

That is a stacked question and you full well know it. The original statement was "Patents are products and the backbone of the American economy."

Now, replying to the comment about patents being the backbone of the American economy, I'd tell you to look at ANY of the following: Microsoft, Apple, Biogen, Pfizer, IBM, 3M, Qualcomm, or any of hundreds of other companies (hey, look up the Fortune 500, if you know what that is) that would all be out of business within 2 - 3 years if patent law were suddenly comprimised.

If you ever get the time, study the full history of China to see how a lack of strong patent laws can make a great country collapse under its own weight and inertia (in the case of China, many times).

Jim, I just wanted to say that:

I love God and Republicans, you silly jerk. My sources on the street also say that IDCC is rumorred to have already settled with ERICY for 1.246 trillion kronar. I do not feel this strongly, I know it for a matter of fact. In fact I was informed so by IDCC insiders who asked me to let you all know. Also, just because TA is Japanese doesn't mean it works. I prefer to listen to wise men like Procyon.


*sorry, I just couldn't resist. :-P (don't worry, I'll go back to being a board-bum -- no more mischief out of me, I promise!:)

Dang they let me in .... there goes the neighborhood.

Hi again all you guys. If you thought, after years and years of investing in IDC(C) that I wouldn't switch over you'd be as crazy as ... well .. I don't know ... just crazy. hehe