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Goldman Sachs Unbelievable! Was a toss up for me between buying PCLN calls and GS calls. I should have tried playing both by swapping from PCLN to GS at the end of tuesday. GS ROCKETING!!!!!! PCLN lagging, but looking like it's just about ready to pop right now.
UPB is never wrong. Beware the UPB indicator.
That price should decay really fast. Unless you're expecting the market to crash, VXX isn't going over 34$.
PCLN giving me heart burn. Waiting for the pop.
That's one trade I'm going to disagree with you on UPB.
I take it back! I take it back! lol. Euro just about instantly down 60 pips to its baseline support, and now bouncing back up. Crazy. Still think we have a major up day.
No room to fall on Euro. MAJOR UP DAY! That's my prediction. For some reason I feel like a contrarian after reading a bunch of bear malarky from numerous different sources. S&P 1280
All Derivatives will go to zero.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mark-faber-i-am-convinced-whole-derivatives-market-will-cease-exist-and-will-go-zero
Some guy called seek wrote this:
"Just to wrap up the thought experiment here, it plays out:
- Risk of imminent derivative default presents itself, probably triggered by a sovereign default/haircut that can't be kicked down the road. Immediately prior to this there are asset (including gold) sell-offs as derivative contracts try to deliver. This accelerates.
- It becomes obvious to the TPTB that this is indeed the big unwind event. Given what happened in 2008, this realization takes place in 48-72 hours. Like 2008, the tip off will be accelerating sell-offs and secret government meetings at the same time we're hearing everything is fine from the talking heads.
- Unlike 2008 the markets can't be calmed down with the unlimited guarantees, because the outflows have virtually nothing to do with retail investors anymore, and the banks that are responsible already have been operating on the assumption of government backstop and using that to gamble even more. The pure printing solution just accelerates the problem (hyperinflation/currency collapse) so this won't happen. The only option is a "market holiday" that will happen as a result of the secret meetings in that 72 hour window. This is the very last public event before the crisis is "solved." Best guess is the holiday runs 1-2 weeks at most.
- During this holiday obviously markets are closed. I don't think the banks will be however, but capital/withdrawl controls will be in place. There needs to be enough money available for people to buy food, etc, otherwise due to being a cashless society riots start really fast, and TPTB want the people docile so they don't realize how fucked they're about to be.
- After this 1-2 week holiday, joint announcement of most major currencies to simultaneously devalue, maybe with the announcement of a new global regulatory authority and a sovereignty grab.
Now I think some of the banking interests will know this is the "solution" ahead of the market holiday by a decent margin, so I suspect they might make some sort of move in commodities a week or two before this goes down, and also buying up favorably priced (e.g. distressed) debt knowing it'd be paid back in devalued dollars. All of this also need to be not-too-obvious, so my guess is you'd see a puzzling jump in volume and pricing in some of the most traded commodities that have a high percentage of actual deliveries (not sure what this would be, maybe foodstuffs or oil, but it won't be gold, since it's too small and too obvious., though little doubt retail investors and slow money will drive gold up during the 72 hour crisis window.) So this would be a leading indicator, subtle wierd changes in commodities with deliverables right before or during a big sell-off.
Given 2008, though, all the important things will happen in a 5-day window that happens after maybe a week of obviously high market stress.
Just wild hypothecating, but my guess is we don't have much longer. Definitely under 2 years, maybe less than a month."
I was at the bank the other day, and my bank manager was telling me how he felt embarrassed when he was stocking up on canned goods at the store. I'm constantly a little freaked out and wired paying attention to what's happening financially in the world right now. I try hard to be a bull but I can't shake the idea there's going to inevitably be a world currency, and therefore there has to be precipitating events that lead to it. The question is when...
If you can't openly short something then you're forced to either play bounces, buy rumors, and do pump and dumps if you want to make quick gains. I used to play pennies all the time until I started to learn how to do options on the triple Qs. I remember this one time there was a company called MGLG Magellan Gas. They hard hard assets and transparent books and assessments of all these wells that they acquired. Natural gas prices were rising and their oil was capable of flowing. Problem was there was a 'STOP' by the federal government on their and other gas companies in the area because they were enforcing a new regulation to mix gas together to change pressure to a uniform mixture. Their wells were shut down while they were building the new pipelines so the stock collapsed from over a penny while they diluted shares to pay for costs. There was a piece of news while it was in the basement .0001 x .0002 that they had completed the project and were flowing gas, and were in the process of reviewing the data so they could get a read on whether the pressure was correct. The news said it took two weeks to find out how much gas was flowing and at what speed so their projected earnings could be figured out. By all estimates it was going to be a lot, and the company on paper was literally worth over a dime even after all the dilution. It popped from 1x2 to 2x3. I bought it at .0003 on the ask and literally ranted and raved to all my friends for about two weeks telling them they should invest as much money as they could risk and get shares of it before it went over .001 and sell it when they were up a few hundred percent for a guaranteed win. Only three people believed in me, and they didn't believe me when it was .0004, or .0005, or .0006, no. They bought shares at .0012, .0013 the monday of the second week. That week the stock peaked at .0038, and by then I yelled at everyone to cash out and save their profits. Some did, some didn't. They all made profits. I wanted to leave my shares in the long haul as an investment and see what happened. Especially since I wasn't going to be able to be at the computer during trading hours in the next week, and for some reason that I can't recall, I wasn't playing with stops. I think its because the stock would radically fluctuate and I wanted to ensure I didn't get stopped out on a run. After all, the fundamentals were tight. On monday... no news. Stock crashed from .0038 to .001 then rebought back up to .0030 over the course of an hour and stabilized. For the next two months there was no news on the stock. It drifted down steadily. Eventually, news came out that the owners were arrested by the SEC because they had fake shell companies and were guilty of scamming people because they were laundering money and all this other illegal stuff through real companies. So the investors of their real company were totally screwed over when the stock was delisted because the company went bankrupt because the owners were under arrest. I, in classic form, lost everything. Moral of the story, penny stocks can be totally awesome if you know how to play the pump and dump and have time to stare at the screen, and can be insanely amazing if you get in the right company in the basement before it takes a run to a penny, or even higher!!! But those gems are so few and far between and scattered wtih so many scams, that its a dangerous game to play, and you CONSTANTLY have to deal with people pumping and bashing.
Now with options, you get the gains of penny stocks on a much more consistent basis, and you still have to deal with pumpers and bashers only they're much more amusing. Like team Pudshaft on the finance.yahoo message boards for QQQ. Or idiots like OceanWaves on the SPY. Cramer and other pompous idiots on TV and in the media. They all tout their crap, but there's just as many scams and just as much risk, at least in my opinion. Of course with options you can control your risk if you know what you're doing, which is pretty cool. I personally like trading volatility, which basically means trading the indexes too.
All I know is the VIX. It's the only thing I've ever traded successfully. I'm feeling really discouraged today. I had OTM Jan puts on VXX that I knew were going to make some money, and I went into PCLN because I wanted to try a stock play that I thought would work. Every time I've ever done options on stocks I've been skulled. Today I got skulled and my VXX Puts would be in the money. Siiiiiigh. If I'm wiped out this week, I'll rummage up a couple hundred more and try again next week.
Should have stuck with my VXX Puts. Curse you PCLN! Here's to hoping you skyrocket tomorrow. If I manage to have money at the end of the week, I'm going to try to dedicate half my account (if its at least a couple hundred bucks) to mirroring all of UPB's trades, or at least one a day that he posts.
Market ramping. Spy going green. PCLN at low. FML
VIX down 4.5% and dropping.
I've spent 99% of my time trading options as a perma-bear masquerading as a bull by shorting VXX and flipping to OTM calls when it seemed appropriate.
Being a perma bear I know what type of movement it takes to totally screw us. yesterday was one of those times that it seemed perfect to go in short, and that's why SPY had price failures, and guess what, VXX is down 2 dollars today and the market is up. The only way the market goes up is if it doesn't fill the gaps. THATS how they steal the money. My humble opinion right now is don't get your money stolen, and charge like a crack smoking bull, only instead of playing the SPY and hoping santa dies in the streets, im playing a stock. volatility will DROP the next few weeks, but I think some calls are better than the slow dribble down of volatility. I think SPY puts are risky. I could be blatantly wrong, I have been plenty of times, but I smell a rat, and I think the gap won't fill, and tomorrow will be bright green all the way. And if that happens you'll be pissed off about your spy calls tomorrow while PCLN soars another 3%. Don't get caught out. If you're gonna short SPY might as well go long on PCLN as a hedge.
BREAKING: Verizon said to be probed by U.S. over cable spectrum deals - VZ is at a crazy high right now. Am i wrong here or is VZ epic PUT bait right now?
Contrarily: Don't miss the bus.
MNYC instead of thinking about what you could have made. Why don't you jump on board with me and pick up 500 weekly calls right now. it's .45 x .60. you have so much more money than I do. It's not too late for PCLN, at least that's where all my money is right now. You can afford a little OTM. Or buy a share and slap the ask, lol.
PCLN getting market independent buying! Booyah! Spikes = buying pressure!
Lol, if someone ever used time other than EST when referring to US markets I'd slap them.
Really? I can tell you exactly when I think we'll be skinned. The end of January.
Cheerlead or die. Bricka Bracka firecracka sis boom ba! Santa rally, santa rally, ra ra ra. Everything's flashing HOD signals. at 1054. We need some serious uptrend or else the dreaded 11AM turnaround will trap in us bulls.
PCLN broke $474! Next stop 480
OMG its happening. Market rally.
I hope it's not gonna be a double top for 11 crash.
edited - If PCLN ended the week at 520 and i let my options expire I'd make back what I've lost since the beginning of November. At 505 I break even from what I've put in since I started options this year. I don't like the 'fill the gap' garbage that's being touted for PCLN. Why would it have to fill the gap? Squeezed shorts and no upper resistance, why wouldn't it press higher? I mean granted its just following the market to a slightly exaggerated extent, but its very bullish by its own right. Are people who are sayin it should fill the gap anticipating the market to sell off today and bring PCLN with it? Nooooooo. If these shorts are going to squeeze there needs to be some buying action on PCLN independent of the market. If only a nasty Santa rally took effect. It's Chanukah! Gimme a little back market! I need, I need!
I love your trades UPB. If I had money I'd mirror almost every trade you make. GS 95 Weekly Calls look golden. I'd buy them, but I don't want to sell my weekly PCLN calls yet. I hope there won't be egg on my face.
PCLN pushing new high. I hope it squeezes over 500 today, lol.
I still have the 500 Call @ .25
Happy Chanukah Rally today.
SPY PRICE FAILURE Pitchfork Analysis
http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/06/03/pitchfork-analysis-price-failure-rule-hagopian%E2%80%99s-rule/
Might be time to pile on the PUTS?
SANTA = SATAN'S PITCHFORK?
I think POT is close to a buy. If I could I'd buy it outright. Not sure when it will run but call spreads might do nicely here.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/potash-makes-big-strategic-move.html/
PCLN is right on track. SPY down 1$ PCLN down 5$. Now it's recapitulated. SPY up 20 cents, and PCLN back up the 5$. Doesn't matter if PCLN's on a different exchange. It's all connected.
AMZN hitting the HOD and going higher.
ZIP losing its ZAP. Good thing I'm long on PCLN.
ZIP looking strong today. I like it for the 17.50 january calls.
PCLN starts day at $458.50 up $1.42 based on the 8:00AM spread of 456.93 vs 460. Meanwhile the SPY is flirting with 122.00.
N Korea news - a bombshell to the market?
Is the death of their leader and the 'uncertainty' surrounding the potential changes in the N Korean regime going to pull the market lower this week? It seems that volatility is already going up and the asian markets are going lower as we speak. EUR USD is starting its inevitable bearish decline. I'm feeling the fangs of the bear coming out. Will futures turn green by this morning or are we in for a down day, with retail being the only big greens? Either way, I bet VIX will go up into the open. Good thing I sold my VXX puts, and instead went long on PCLN.
PUT AMZN? I agree that AMZN might drop here, but I don't think it has much room to go. Take a careful look at the MACD and see how it has a tendency to touch and bounce back. I think AMZN would be in for a several day drop and when the lines touch, watch it miraculously soar. 170 puts are too risky in my opinion, and you would be much better off buying ITM Puts and capitalize on a drop of several dollars, as opposed to over 10. if you just enjoy playing lottos i can see how an OTM put can be nice, but given the last time AMZN hit this level it bounced up, if you hold OTM puts and it doesn't go in the direction you want fast enough, you'll find your money quickly disappear. So I'd say ITM puts, and if you're feeling risky, a smaller position in OTM puts, but ultimately I think OTM calls here after the price drops abit more would be in order.
Bought some Decwk4 PCLN 500 Calls @ .25
DecWK4 PCLN 500Calls @ .30