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mlsoft,
>>A company does not lay off a lot of employees that it has trained at great expence if it sees any hope of a turn around in business in the forseeable future<<
They have in the past and probably will in the future. We have seen how good companies are at predicting businesss conditions. Which one saw the economic collapse comming in early 2000 before it smacked them right between the eyes. What makes you think they will be any better at spotting a genuine recovery?
Benj
You may be right about that.
George, re. Buffet and junk bonds.
A bit late due to travel. According to an article by Kathleen Pender of the San Francisco Chronile, 03/11/03,
referring to Buffets' letter to shareholders, he states that he expects occasional large losses in junk bonds and advises the individual investor to steer clear of them.
Just to clarify and FWIW. Incidently, I heard Paul Gross in an interview the other day and he felt that the average investor could find 6-7% tax free munis and I believe he was referring to them as fairly safe. Did not make sense to me. Again, FWIW.
Benj
George,
Roger that, I will try to find the source and relay the info.
Benj
George,
Didn't Buffet come out recently with a paper stating that he felt the junk bond arena may not be the place to be in the future?
Benj
Time for the longs to take a knee and pay homage to the real facilitator of this impressive rally with his army of followers, purses and wallets bulging with pent-up cash and his bold call to go 100% into stocks.
Hail BOB BRINKER!! <<G>>
>>The point I was trying to make was that most folks buy bonds to diversify their portfolio and have an element of less risk>>
Joe, I realize this but I thought we gravitated To "junk" and "junk" applies to securities that the ratings agencies feel have a doubtfull or at least questionable prospect of making good on their obligations. This would not apply to the above. If you are a buy and holder of these bonds till maturity you are betting that in 3 or 5 or 7 years that this entity will be solvent and you will be out nothing, but with the economic picture today this is less than a sure bet. That is why I say the risk is there as well as the other ramifications of interest rate changes and so fourth. The last time I looked there were only 5 corporate bonds that had AAA ratings and It would not suprise me if it was even less today. Conditions are continuating to deteriorate and thus the risk in this whole arena is real.
I would be looking at "junk bonds" merely to enhance the performance of my cash position but for me there is no illusion of risklessness. Thanks for taking the effort to clarify my misunderstanding, I appreciate your ideas.
Benj
Barton smelling another bottom? He ought to be ashamed <G>
George, I could use an asset class that is "kind." They have been few and far between, other than a couple of junior miners I was lucky enough to jump on a couple of years ago. Looked at a lot of PMs last night and everyone has busted through their 200 MA... I dunno...
Anyway, much obliged for you response and insights.
Benj
Joe, been having a hard time with I-Hub for hours for some reason. Thanks for reminding me that I lost a lot of money in bonds about eight years ago <gg> I have not owned any since, and you are right that I am late to the party on many bond funds and realize we may be near a top. All bonds seem risky to me here so I am thinking if I am going to risk anyway in search of yeild (not with all the eggs mind you) why not go for the highyields. You make a good point about funds compared to individual issues, but Seems like risk either way- Funds may and probably will go down verses a company that may go belly up. Thanks for the names and for your imput. Much appreciated.
Benj
Joe Stocks,
The site is good for general information on bonds. I have looked at Moodys and Standard and Poors and was checking out Levi in their sec filings. They recently secured a 3/4 billion dollar loan from SSB to keep afloat but so did Enron. I know a guy that put about 6 million into levi but I agree with George that bonds funds managed by reputable people would be an advantage as they would probably have more heads up on a companys' situation than the average guy. Now to find those funds.
Thanks for your tip
Benj
Thanks, Joe.
Benj
George,
You've spoken several times about junk bonds. Could you tell me where you find your most reliable information on junk bonds or junk bond funds, which I gather you prefer.
I am looking for the "best of the junk." Also, do you mostly trade the bonds or do you have long term positions as well? Thanks for any help.
Benj
mlsoft,
Yes, I have the same feeling about munis in that reguard
and found myself, in desparation maybe, looking at trust deeds and various junk bonds, such as Levi Strauss but being a chicken little I have not been able to place the bet on a companys' or industries' survival. The search goes on.
Best,
Benj
mlsoft, thanks. I should look too. I asked because I have been trying to determine the strength of the safety net under the munis and other bonds, an area of investment I have lost money in before (hence my distaste for them) but have been compelled to search out different places to park most of my money. I am not having a lot of luck finding anything I feel comfortable with. I Imagine many are in the same boat.
Good anaysis on the golds and thanks for all of your thoughtfull imput to this board.
Benj
mlsoft, the stress of local and state budgets that you refer to are hitting hard here. Over 40 teachers at a local college here were given their walking papers and that may only be the beginning. Just a sample.
Re. MBIA, the last time I checked they had about 5 bucks for every $750 in liabilities. Do you think that the other companies in this field are much better off?
Benj
Hi Basserdan, I found the article by Hans Schicht to be hysterical. Hanz, IMO, is teetering on the edge as are many others. I suggest more fiber in his diet. Thanks for the laughs.
Good luck catching walter. Might be interesting for you to know that my neighbor designed the lure that caught the world record striped bass- 67 inches. I myself will be out in my trusty kayak in the slough or the big deep blue trying to cath whatever is down there, maybe even "The Creature!"
Take care
Benj
Mlsoft,
Right, a little bit of jawboning left in the "Maesrto".
Benj
Mlsoft...
Did you notice the pounding of spot gold increase after Greenspan said that the rise in gold and oil was due to the war concerns and was not based on anything fundamental? Had a definitive ring to it.
Benj
>>>imossible to trade the golds
A buddy of mine who is a V.P. for a junior miner shares this view for over a year now as he felt the movement in gold and gold shares would be to radical and unpredictable to trade and he is a good trader. Has been basically right on with respect to golds general move up and is holding gold long term. Looking to add near 100 day MA is some golds.
Benj
O.T Hey Patrick Bateman,
Do you use "method acting" in your movie career? Could you supply the name of your critically acclaimed movie? I am sure everyone wants to rush out and see it.
Benj
>>>said it would kill the bubble...
Greenspan at that time said that he did not want to raise margin requirements because it would put the small invester at a disadvantage to the institutions.
Benj
I guess this must be Sunday. Some warmed up a bit early.
Benj
Paul A
>>>Funny you should mention vodka...
I believe vodka has the lowest presence of aldehydes and other noxious elements, followed by scotch and with gin having the greatest amounts, hence leading to the mother of all hangovers from overconsumption. I too am a wine lover having been in every aspect of the business for more years than I want to count.
Benj
Basserdan, George cole,....Midas,
Thanks for your imputs. I look at several PMs actually and their historical performance to the POG but came away with a mixed bag. For example in "96 with POG at $400 GLG looked about $7-8. Had a hard time puting my finger on production level camparisons, aquisition and merger implications reguarding hedging ramifications, general changes of companies over the years and so on. I do agree that the recent movement in POG is related to war but that the underlying conditions of currencies, economies, deficits, etc. will support the move when and if the dust settles. FWIW, my broker had 20-30 clients that were into gold in the eightys. Still has the same clients today but only three are into gold at this time. I am just glad that I burried those gold bricks in the forest behind my
house......now let's see was it the seventh tree, fifth
rock, eighth bush....or was it....aw geeez...
Benj
Thanks Stow,
Still seems subliminal<g>
As I tune in and out of Powell's speach the camera has flashed a few times on the grey board that says something like IRAQ fails...and something or other. Too fast for me to read, though I am a slow reader. <g> Seems almost like subliminal suggestion.
Benj
basserdan,
Why you old smoothy. I almost wanted to follow you and blue shoe myself down the primrose path into the catacombs of Puplava's dissertations but suddenly remembered my vows.<gg> Really, I am just joshing you as I find you to be quite a nice chap who is really becomming quite smooth. I was looking at Nem in '96 when gold was at $400 the Oz and it looked to me that NEM was near $55 to $60. Do you have any personal thoughts as to the relationship of NEM to the POG then and its' present day relationship?
TIA, Benj
Main-
Right, and watch as they bulldose billions of dolars of useless and obsolete products into the land of never more only to be mysteriously resurected and sold at a later date to bounce the bottom line.
Benj
"should have said MS Paint"
At one time we could do a better job with brushes, dyes, pencils, pastels and air brushes than with Adobe. Now Adobe has come of age in the last several years.
Benj
That's an insutlt to Adobe <g> More like a chimp with crayons. Used to be my job for 10 yrs to restore and manipulate photos for mags and pros and this is a real hack job IMO
Benj
Zeev,
Socks are off and I tip my hat to you on your RMBS call!
Benj
mainhiker,
I am seeing such evidence. A good friend sold his house and business about two years ago to travel the world for a year with his wife. He asked me what I thought he should do with his proceeds. I suggested the moneymarket (which was still doing about 5%) because I felt the market had much furter to go on the down side and he would have his dough when he got back. He said it sounded good to him but a few days later decided to sick everything into high growth nazdaq funds. When They got back the funds were down 85% and continued the decent. Talked to him today and he is now considering bailing on what is left. Just one sample.
Benj
TJ,
Yes, why not learn from the the biggest circus of all?
Benj
Phill, You took some words right out of my mouth. Puplava seemed to have made several blunders in his facts.Also, I have a problem with someone who uses allegories as in "The Perfect Storm" and something about catching a cold or the flu as if he is talking to some children.I liked your description "a bloody shirt waver". These Gold and commodities pumpers are sensationalists in the extreme, drumming up as much fear and loathing as possible to further their vested interests. I for one will not waste another minute reading their drivel, just as soon as I go out and DEMAND physical delivery of my gold and gold stock certificates, just in case they're right. <gg> Ahh, Barnum would be proudJMO, Benj
shtirlitz,
My engineering friends would agree with you. Having known them on a working relationship they concluded that
the company and workforce were mediocre at best which led them to short the stock from its' high years ago. Just another plaything for the traders these days.
JMOP,
Benj
extelecom, I too recieved that "piece of garbage junk e-mail (IMO)" today. Personally, when I read Sinclair, I smell snake oil.
JMOP, Benj
MLSOFT, AG seems to have a dual personality. Do you ever recall reading about Als' reply (in the eighties I believe) to some Kondratieff enthusiasts asking about the comming downward cycle in our present time. I believe his reply was that he hoped he was the chairman of the fed when it hit because he would print so much money that he would break the cycle. He continued that it would either work or we would have a depression that would make 1929 look like a cake walk. On the other hand he has an affinity for the gold standard. He is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
Benj
Augieboo,
Well, these pieces had the look of royalty and me not being an international jewel thief, although they were buried under six inches of dirt, I simply brought them to the household who was greatly appreciative of the jesture and gave me a long history of the set. They were actually tiny desert utensils and highly appraised but,kids will will be kids was the motto no matter the price tag. In most ways a very down to earth family. I always wonder what else was burried around the grounds.
Benj
Realalist..... I have been traveling for awhile and when i get back it is you again trying to torpedo Zeev, a constant theme with you. Does Zeev represent to you some baggage out of your past like he is a father figure that jilted you when you were young? You do seem to be getting to a higher level of anger in you posts. Are you getting enough sex? Maybe you might want to ditch those skin tight lycra riding shorts as I here thay can damage the goodies. And lets face, your golf game is not great. It's good. Hell I even shoot in the seventies when my body and mind allows and into the eighties when I'm average. My buddies can shoot in the sixties and are legitimate awesome golfers. But golf and bicycling and the other things that you talk about are really diversions. You need to find out what is really bugging you and deal with it and get on with you life. Good luck.
Benj