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What has worked in the past is fading high Oex put/call ratios. Normally retail investors don't get involved in those options and the big money expecting a drop does. 5 day ratio implies big money fading rally. Chart says it's bullish but I think a contrarian approach is better...big dumps follow.
Buy and holders have not done well since Jan 04. Really no reason to think that changes anytime soon judging by the chart.
I see 1634 being very strong horizontal resistance, and then a retest from below of broken weekly TL's.
A massive failure at 1634 would set up a complex h&s pattern with the left shoulder made Dec/Jan 05 and head Nov to Mar 05/06.
Quarterly candle chart showing bullish hammer candle. Can change as quarter doesn't end till eom. 2nd chart is focused on where I see the lower quarterly TL coming through at, but depicted on a six month weekly.
As you can see the bears have some work to do before the end of month. TL comes in somewhere between last weeks low of 1552 and the prior week low of 1542.
Quarterly candle chart showing bullish hammer candle. Can change as quarter doesn't end till eom. 2nd chart is focused on where I see the lower quarterly TL coming through at, but depicted on a six month weekly.
As you can see the bears have some work to do before the end of month. TL comes in somewhere between last weeks low of 1552 and the prior week low of 1542.
Hanging over the market is a debate among strategists and economists over whether the United States is heading for a gradual economic slowdown, or a full-fledged recession, especially after reports of weakness in the housing sector.
Seems like prospects were much better in the spring when Dow/Spx traded these same levels.
I contend the market has not discounted the slowdown at these levels and is due for a shot of reality.
Lest we forget the broken rising wedge on the monthly and the 1st MACD crossover in years. Look at the white line. Nothing bullish if price can't break back above.
Lest we forget the broken rising wedge on the monthly and the 1st MACD crossover in years. Look at the white line. Nothing bullish if price can't break back above.
Up slightly next 2 trading days. Down to 1535 then up, how far depends on the nature of the correction from this near term top.
If the retracement to 1535 is hard and fast the bounce will be short lived (bear). If the retrace looks like a correction the bull will live on and up we go to new highs.
So, the nature of the next down cycle is critical imo.
Anyone want to guess how much lower New lows go before they turn higher.
Nil....
Thanks Poker, trying to contribute something.
Looks like a rising wedge in your chart.
We know they rarely go to the apex and are a bearish pattern. Price could fall through at any time or continue inside.
Chart and link would not show up in same post but available on request.
Link to prior post
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5818.htm
Housing overlaid Spx Chart.
Puny volume = retail trader runup.
Nasdaq Volume 1,308,185,000
Doji close chart w/neg d on rsi5.
Easy to take up on low volume is easier to crater after most have quit for the day.
Yep, looks like last year was a risk taking blowoff.
I won't be too impressed until Ndx/Indu ratio shows strength. The market is still risk adverse. If move was to be long lasting Ndx would be leading strongly.
I won't be too impressed until Ndx/Indu ratio shows strength. The market is still risk adverse.
And then it takes days after the turn.
Are you getting more or less positive on the rally in the indexes?
Mean anything?
Umm...whad he say...who cares?
So nobody thinks we're dumbasses......
standard deviation
One entry found for standard deviation.
Main Entry: standard deviation
Function: noun
1 : a measure of the dispersion of a frequency distribution that is the square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of the deviation of each of the class frequencies from the arithmetic mean of the frequency distribution; also : a similar quantity found by dividing by one less than the number of squares in the sum of squares instead of taking the arithmetic mean
2 : a parameter that indicates the way in which a probability function or a probability density function is centered around its mean and that is equal to the square root of the moment in which the deviation from the mean is squared
http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/standard%20deviation
Gap n Crap. Impulsive or corrective?
Semi's not cooperating with Ndx jump. Sox leads.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p29220853899
LOL. Looking for 38.64 support to be hit early on. It would take a crap data point to go lower today.
When volume begins increasing next week the dumb money fluff's gonna get spanked.
Overbought Oscillator at extreme.
Don't know about that. Lot's of hope for a soft landing but historically chances are poor.
May well be a recession next year or not. The problem is the market rally has setup for dissapointment by jumping the gun.
Players have no respect for risk even after being pounded post bubble.
Oex puts are usually built up at tops and getting extreme.
http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgPro/charts/COEXVOL.HTM
Daily closed at 2.51.
http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgPro/charts/COEXVOL.HTM
Good close all things considered. Don't want that series of spike tops to start providing support.
They hold up the market for distribution before they let it go. In addition to futures, Cap weighted indices can be held with relatively few big stocks.
Probably why CSX looks like crap too.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p16658101118
This would be a good spot to gap down tomorrow.
Nice to have you're company...been awhile eh?
We need to go down and fill that gap and test the b/o @ 1534...may be soon.
Not getting the kind of follow thru it would have very recently.
Shorts are washed out...can go down now.
You may get a good price but I think we're about topped for a bit.