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Yes a wild story indeed. But from an investment standpoint I’m talking about CDMO and not PPHM. CDMO has a story of improvement since inception. Anyone that took a stake in CDMO originally has only seen improvement. And it is now just beginning it’s move to an eventual peak. Obviously PPHM wrote a much different story. AIMO.
The question is in my opinion — has the story changed for this company? The answer is YES but not in a bad way. This company has gotten and likely will continue to get stronger and should eventually sell at a nice premium. Why would I not see this story to its compelling end? Downturns and Bear markets come and go. They are historically short lived. Strong companies with compelling stories always rise to the top — regardless. I will stay to the end. AIMO.
Well I am no technical expert but an array of 1 ft. By 1 ft. Windows is not an ideal application. If they can overcome that one issue and effectively and efficiently generate power on larger surfaces then there is no end to the potential of this company. Once this pandemic is over I am going to pay a visit to the NREL and get some answers as to the difficulty of application on much larger surfaces. But yes there certainly is a market for their current application. Golf carts seems to be a logical break in market. But their vision is much bigger than that. They will find a way. There are no limits to human ingenuity. They certainly have the brain power associated with this company on the BOD and at the NREL. That is why I am here. I love the vision of this company. Now with the new administration in place there will be greater focus on making this a much wider application product. Right time at the right place.
Well it seems they still have some technical hurdles to overcome. It’s an interesting story that is for sure.
This video came to me in an email this morning. I thought it was talking about Tesla and I was curious to see what was the latest in the electric car industry. But it tweaked my further interest when the narrator started talking about this small company in the solar window industry becoming the next big investment opportunity.
Understood. I thought the same thing until I watched the video.
I understand how you came to that conclusion with Musk having direct association with solar city. But you need to look closer. Unless solar city has the same lead scientist as solar window who is shown somewhere around minute 22:15 looking at the array of windows routinely shown by solar window. And solar city uses next generation solar panels as opposed to solar coatings described in this video. It’s solar window he is describing. I am certain.
I wonder what company is being described in this video.
https://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/301010
Avid on Forbes list as one of America’s best small cap companies 2021. Is this the reason for the rise lately?
https://www.forbes.com/lists/best-small-cap-companies/#14c8f7a47db6
I agree. Problem is we see nothing in terms of incentives until Bavi starts registrational trials. That is likely a couple years away. Will we have sold by then? I personally hope so. Time to get off this ride. It’s been a long one. Very happy with where we seem to be going now. We do have manufacturing rights for Bavi. That could pay dividends shorter term.
According to a person not working directly with Bavi but has his ear to
the ground this is what he says. I asked when he thought Bavi could go to registrational trials.
HI Bob
It is a great question.
I am not directly involved anymore, but have heard that the gastric ca trial is going well but it is a Phase I/II, IF the data from that trial or the current Phase I/II study in HCC are outstanding then one could do a randomized Phase II in the appropriate indication (gastric or HCC), If that looks good then you would do a registrational trial. All these trials are in combo with pembrolizumab (anti-PD-1). Overall survival would be an endpoint and in either gastric or HCC you would need lots of patients in the randomized phase II study. This will take at minimum a couple more years, I expect- BUT that is just an estimate. Patient enrollment could go fast if the early data is promising.
According to pharmas almanac large molecule CDMOS are selling for 18–25 times EBITDA, based around a robust previous 12 months and for 12 months pro forma.
Because there are fewer deals in the marketplace, there are fewer opportunities to acquire, which means less supply, which drives the price up in every market.
https://www.pharmasalmanac.com/articles/the-business-of-a-pandemic-mergers-and-acquisitions-during-covid-19
I encourage everyone that invests in this company to research it thoroughly before putting money down. Check the bylaws. Check compensation for board members. These guys are not new to this game. I say this from experience.
That was assuming an $11 strike price and about 8.5M shares assuming they offer an added 15%. Something prompted this. Raising all expansion finances at once??? What has changed since the call?
It appears to be up to 15% additional shares or over $90M. Are they going for the entire buildout immediately. What prompted that?
Avid has now established itself as a viable long term player regardless who owns them. This means the risk for prospective customers has been reduced significantly. Customers naturally shy away from entities that have yet to prove their longer term viability. Especially when you are dealing with such complex processes making it highly difficult to move to another manufacturer. This is a very sticky business where prospective customers seek out long term relationships with contract manufacturers. In my opinion new customer generation is now going to take on a whole new level of demand. Things can really start moving at a much more rapid pace. Time will tell. AIMO.
Well put. Agree wholeheartedly.
If their intent was sincere, there should be no reason for them to ignore questions now. Send any business related question you have to Stephanie and, if you are so inclined, post the questions and answers here for all to be informed.
Judge for yourself. I just received this.
Bob,
As requested, I followed up on this. All participating investors were provided the opportunity to submit questions through the meeting platform. Note, shareholders had the ability to access the meeting website 15 minutes prior the meeting and submit questions at any time during the formal business portion of the meeting. Only one question and one comment were submitted, and both of which were not relevant to the meeting, Avid's current business operations, and were deemed inappropriate for the AGM setting.
Accordingly, the meeting was concluded when the business of electing directors was completed as that was the only matter for consideration this year.
Stephanie
He actually said also joining us today naming Stephanie Diaz etc etc. in that sequence. I suppose that could mean remotely or in person. But who knows. The entire event was bizarre.
Stephanie’s reply to me:
I gave you the information that was given to me. I was not there in person today and I don’t know what changed.
Revenues were actually up 11% year over year.
It was an average performance year with revenues of 59.7M up from 53.6 million. An increase of approx. 10% in revs. In my opinion, Not bad. Not great. The annual loss was affected by the known machine issue.
The objectives brought some insight.
Strategic Objectives
The following are our near-term strategic objectives:
· Invest in additional manufacturing capacity and resources required for us to achieve our long-term growth strategy and meet the growth-demand of our customers’ programs, moving from development through to commercial manufacturing;
· Broaden our market awareness through a diversified yet flexible marketing strategy;
· Continue to expand our customer base and programs with existing customers for both process development and manufacturing service offerings;
and
· Increase our operating profit margin to best in class industry standards.
Concerning expansion
The time for completing expansion was reduced from 2 years to 1-1.5 years.
Initiated the pre-engineering, design and permitting work required that will allow us to break ground on a facility expansion when we determine it is appropriate. We expect that such expansion could take 12 to 18 months to complete. While a specific kick-off date has not yet been established for this expansion, we believe that customer demand will require additional capacity in the next 12 to 24 months and we expect to be prepared to accommodate that demand.
It’s the 2020 annual report and it was sent in pdf format. If you want a copy ask Stephanie. She is obligated to send it to you.
Ask for the 2020 annual report. I just received it from Stephanie. There is some interesting information in the report and they are legally obligated to send it to anyone who asks for it.
Something is up. These guys aren’t foolish. They won’t conduct themselves in any illegal way. Will there be news later today?
We can send questions in individually or we can send them as a cohesive group. I’ll be happy to send them or if anyone else wants to volunteer I will provide my questions.
Should we compile a list of questions and send them to Stephanie?
Okay so what is their motive to conduct themselves this way? This certainly was done purposely and they knew it would cause discontent so what is their objective?
Good idea.
This is Stephanie’s entire message.
“The meeting will be webcast and individual investors will have an opportunity to submit written questions via the online platform. Having said that, time will be limited and management won't likely be able to respond to all questions.”
From Stephanie. “The meeting will be webcast and individual investors will have an opportunity to submit written questions via the online platform.”
It is a chance for investors to gain insight into current affairs and future plans. They won’t be able to answer all questions but many. Take advantage.
Yes that is certainly possible. They have mentioned such a strategy in the past. Hopefully Nicholas provides further clarity at the SM.
If you really dissect this article it does provide some insight into the future strategy and vision for Avid.
In it for the long term:
“Avid is not just interested in short-term opportunities; we are building long-term sustainability. “
Strengthen the company offerings through further strategic partnerships:
“We will also continue to forge strategic partnerships with industry leaders that offer complementary services. “
Timeline for Significant growth and an expanding global footprint:
“In 5 to 10 years, Avid should be significantly larger than it is today, and if there proves to be a move towards localization, it would not be unreasonable to expect a broader global footprint that would allow Avid to deliver customer solutions on other continents.”
Vision:
“Our goal is to be perceived by drug companies as one of the top CDMOs that comes to mind when they are looking for mammalian development and manufacturing services. “
This is Nicholas Green’s roadmap and vision for Avid’s future success. Looks like it will require patience but it gives his roadmap and timeline for ultimate success. He is also speaking to his potential customer base telling them we are in it for the long term. You can be assured we are not putting the for sale sign up any time soon. Provides potential customers some comfort. I don’t think they are going to stop at 250M in revenues. They will likely grow through partnerships expanding their capabilities and capacity. Now the big question is what is their exit point? The end game must still be to sell — but when? JMO...
When they get the work it will be very late to expand. It’s a robust market and covid19 has created the perfect storm for CDMO’s. The focus on bringing drug manufacturing back to the US can only increase demand. Yes there is risk in expansion without financial assistance. And yes it will likely cost short term gains if they have to incur the cost without help.
But that’s why these guys are paid handily. They have to proceed now like they are going to be serious players in the future. That’s called business intuition and confidence both of which are measured in results. Sitting on their hands in a market where capacity is limited and highly valued is not the approach that delivers big results. I look forward to hearing their strategy concerning expansion at the upcoming shareholders meeting if not sooner. My vote — proceed with confidence and a do whatever it takes attitude.
The push to bring drug manufacturing back to the US has some resistance from big pharma because of cost. But do incentives offer the solution and how could it affect Avid? Bills currently in Congress to offer necessary incentives to bring drug manufacturing back to US.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pharma-pushes-back-u-s-legislation-to-bring-drug-manufacturing-stateside
This last line caught my eye. I can't see why expansion would not be considered a necessary upgrade. Doesn't hurt to pursue that angle anyway. They have to be very aggressive now. Hopefully these guys are pursuing every angle...
Other companies could use incentive money to upgrade existing onshore facilities if they get aggressive, Gal argued. Mylan has its Morgantown, West Virginia, site; Teva has a campus in Irvine, California; and Pfizer’s Hospira has facilities in North Carolina.
Enzyme linked immuno sorbent assay. It’s a methodology for any type of immunological testing where you are using an immunological process. I.E. If you are doing an antigen test for Covid 19 you could develop a testing process using this methodology.
One thing I know definitively— Brekken questioned why they pulled the plug so early on the phase 3. He indicated this directly. This is with the knowledge that Bavi administration had historically shown more effectiveness the longer it was in the human body. He could not understand that decision. His only explanation was he thought they were running out of finances. But we all know that the previous group diluted without concern up to that point to raise needed finances. The only thing that is for certain concerning Bavi — is it’s not all as it seems! Much of the history defies logic? And there is no spin to that fact!
In saying all this — I prefer our current situation as an up and coming CDMO over our previous situation with the old crooks in control spending billions and taking millions to line their own pockets. That is without question.
Makes sense. Hopefully they have financial assistance. I’m not sure why they have waited otherwise. Just my opinion. They have the full picture. I trust they are making the right moves.
Personally I’m less concerned about price at this stage and hope they are more focused on expansion strategically. Hopefully they get help with financing but either way they needed to expand yesterday in my opinion. It’s time to move as though they are going to successfully fill that capacity even if it is not fully earmarked. Compton has cited capacity as the key value creator in this market assuming you have good systems in place. If the market is as hot as everything seems to indicate then expansion should go forward now, without question, by all means necessary, in my opinion.