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May I point out that whether 150 or 30 it was all just bubble because Wave had nothing at all except promises, statements and visions. There was no revenue quite aside from profit... Wave is becoming real since perhaps a year or so, everything else is just shareholders paying... Still, it looks like a totaly new chapter is about to open and this one is real and promising!
I fully understand your reluctance to become positive about Wave future development. I have been myself a strong critic of Wave management.The list is long: coming into the stock market without having any product whatsoever, only promises and famous names; not showing a profit for 15 years and no any changes in the management; overoptimistic statements after each quarter of awful "results"; too many people lost everything or most of their investments; the list is too long to continue here. Nevertheless I am convinced that the turning point has been achieved: increasing real revenue, very solid alliances:Dell, Parot, Acer and to some extent HP, TPM-Embassy-ERAS getting increased recognition, potential revenue explosion from the overall emphasis on networks security, very limited real competition if we consider the real technical merits. Furthermore it appears that Wave management learned a lot including SKS and all those nonsense loud statements are indeed a thing of the past. The new language is revenues and soon moving into profitable growth. All this is reason for considerable optimism.
Many people on this board have been Wave investors for 10+ years. No question, investing in other stocks would have been infinetely more profitable but... history cannot be changed. At least, with all those ups and downs which are still ahead, there is hardly any doubt that a year from now the SP will be significantly higher than it is now. Any predictions about the SP increase could be true or not, the only thing which is undeniable is the trend which is up. Lets hope it will last for long time and will come eventually to its past heights?!
The HP agreement is excellent news but it should not be overrated. There are plenty of HP partners in the third party channel and hardly any of them are pushes agressively by the HP sales force unless the customers demand a particular third party solution. In Wave case it appears likely that the government was pushing HP fo a Wave solution which would be an even better news than a HP-Wave bundle. The potential scale of TPM-Embasy-ERAS implementation in government networks is sky high by any standards. HP might be reluctant to bundle because it usually prefers either major partners not tiny ones like Wave or is buying right away the solutions it needs including the company which provides it.
Wave might not be out of the woods yet but everything points out to this day as the start into a very different SP liga.
The analysts view of Wave is certainly different from this board. They see a company which is totally dependent on Dell and there is no need to expand how unhealthy and dangerous this is. Would Dell switch? Unlikely but who could claim that this is impossible. Furthermore, Wave with its tiny revenue is not able to expand its market clout and is far from becoming a recognised brand. This would not be a big issue if a number of other approaches/solutions will not arrive regularly on the market threatening Wave pioneership offers. The SP is not the major issue right now, it is the market expansion which is extremely slow by any standards. There is progress, yes but it is microscopic. If we add the famous SKS credibility issue which could change only with some exlosive hard figures, then we have the picture why no analyst is ready to commit to Wave.
It is one thing that Wave managed to disappoint this board over the years, it is another thing that Wave fails to impress any market makers. Will it change? The ingredients are in place and the hopes are still there. To me the biggest chance is the DoD contract(incredible but true, some people on this board dismissed it as irelevant!!!) which is not only an excellent contract in itself but is most likely the way for Wave to gain the necessary credibility for a further very large business. Other than that, one can hope only in some unexpected positive surprises but hardly major jumps.
The Q3 loss has been exactly the same as Q2 so no progress there even if the revenue has increased. For SP this is irrelevant.
This board manages to create a Wave which has very little to do with the reality. Overoptimism is expected instead of realistic estimate of Wave capabilities. Understandable that the majority of participants are shareholders who lost quite a lot in the past 10 years or so. The hopes to recover the loses are high but are unrealistic in time terms. Wave will grow and eventually will succeed in becoming highly profitable but this story is going on since very many years. How many more? I doubt anybody knows the answer. Unless some explosive announcements will come in, the next mark allowing some further estimate will occur sometime in February-March 201o. Until then any forecasts will lack any solid basis.
The few details emerging about the Perot Information Systems acquisition by Dell are underlining following: Perot will be wholly owned services subsidiary and as such will be a primary promotor of Dell based solutions. Accordingly there is no way Perot can or will avoid Wave solutions. It is higly likely that Perot acquisition is not only a brilliant future path for Dell but it will bring the mach awaited Wave jump into a very different level of income and image. It is just a matter of time when the Dell-Perot full integration will take place but it certainly will not be tomorrow.
Someone has written here recently "The Street does not even know how to spell WAVX" and he/she is right. Given its revenue and the number of employees Wave would qualify at most for the status of a small unit of a large company. The situation is very different in the high-tech world. Here Wave is a highly respected member of TCG group at equal foot with the very biggies, is a partner of some of the most respected companies in the world and enjoys a pioneer status in a very hot area eyed y the best experts in the field. The point is that this high-tech status could jump into The Street status right away as soon as Wave will have one single breakthrough which must catch say a Goldman analyst eye. Then the game is becoming completely different and so will the sp too. A possible candidate would be a DoD or Health Care(Parrot?) deal which could bring Wave into totally new dimensions. Would this be the case? I believe so even if he patience of most people on this board has been stretched to the limits!
Michael Dell is certainly one of the most successful personalities of the US high-tech industry and his company is accordingly one of the great US stories. The only major mistake he did was to leave the operational business for a couple of years to his CEO who proved to be incompetent. Thank god Dell came back but still some time has been lost. IBM realised first that the PC business by itself is without futurem so did HP. Dell managed the move too although slightly late and on a lower scale than HP. Nevertheless Perot is opening a totally new future/profitability for Dell. The open question is what does this bring to Wave? Is Perot going to embrace the Wave Embassy? If yes the Wave future could move extremely rapidly and successfuly´up. But for the time being is a If. Still it is a new option which hopefully could change the whole Wavx future ina most significant way.
Whether we like it or not for the past 15 years this company has been run by the Sprague family and their friends on the board. The results are known. Obviously they realised that this is not enough and somehow they convinced Adm. Inman to join which I believe is the HOPE for Wave. The trouble is that the admiral is involved in multiple activities and at the age of 78 he might slow down, hopefully this is not the case. Too bad that the shareholding meetings are a pure formality and the management continues to do whatever they like. Would not be the time to change all that? I strongly believe that the present management lost its credibility since long time no matter how they perform these days. As I stated before the solution would be a new CEO with totally different credentials than the present one. I doubt that there is any public company in the US who has not been profitable for 15 years and still has the same management. This is outrageous and the stock price is reflecting just that.
Doma, in order to calculate correctly the real number of shares you have to include the warrants as well as the stock options added on a regular basis as THE MOTIVATION for a staff which has not enjoyed too much the last 10 years, quite aside of those 120 or so fired. An excellent picture of the real numbers is on www.unclever.com/wavx too.
Best wishes
gucci1
This rather active board has been unusual quiet about the nonimpact of Q2 results on the stock price. The Q2 results have been spectacular and clearly Wave after 15 years(!!!) is finally about to become profitable. However in the last few months the number of shares grew from some 52 million to some 92 million! It is a miracle that the SP is still where it is. Wave has still about $9 million from the SEC shelf and this could lead to more "surprises". 8-10+ years Wave investments were based on promises of a wonder chip to be the core of all internet networks, the shining names on the board and the internet bubble. For many years this company claimed big advances when a Q revenue was increasing from 200K$ to 230K$.
The shareholders value preservation/increase was always a non-issue, on the contrary. Is this going to change? It is still a very much "may be". Those worldmagics, Symantecs, McAfees are not going to watch the TPM market if this is to take off. Wave got into a "market" which did not exist and still hardly exist. Should it develop than Seagate or somebody else (plenty of sharks around) will swalow Wave in no time. There is one real hope which cannot be overestimated: Adm. Inman. Still Wave so far proved to be the most miserable NASDAQ investment except bust companies.
A word of caution. Wave is doing better and all the signs are positive for the near future. Nevertheless the fantasies on this board like SP of 50 or even 100, no competition for Wave, iPhone with Wave encription and alike are dangerous because is leading again this board to wrong conclusions and exagerated expectations. IMO a Wave breaktrough is imminent and the BE is to be achieved soon, possible already in Q2. From that moment a lot of market participants, funds and so on will be allowed or will be interested to invest in Wave and the SP might grow significantly. The critical point will be at the moment when Wave will achieve a market value of say 300M+. Then the question will come whether the gorillas will let a new significant competitor in the market or someone will swallow Wave quickly. Outcome open. Another danger: so far there was no TPM market, it is still very tiny. Accordingly hardly anyone looked at it, therefore no much competition although Infineon is not exactly nobody. As soon as TPM will increase its attraction (lets hope that this will happen soon) so will the competition increase. Particularly dangerous appears Microsoft who could create an utterly new game in no time and/or buy Wave as long as the price is still low. There are plenty of mine fields ahead, lets hope they are not going to explode.
The SHM this year will certainly focus on successes like Dell, Samsung, Acer and so on. I wonder whether the fundamental question of any SHM is going finally to be discussed, that is the elementary obligation of the management to preserve and increase the shareholder value.From 150 (reverse split considered) to 0.20 would desmise any management in any US public owned company quite aside from an enormous number of false, misleading and permanent "optimistic" statements which in retrospective look absolutely ridiculous. On the other side and this is the dilema Wave somehow survived and things are looking better than ever providing TPM wil get the expected acceptance. What can a CEO do when the company had no products or when the products appeared they face a long acceptance battle? I reiterate here again that Wave has a credibility problem because of his CEO whose statements have been misleading for too long and too often. Just make the admiral Wave CEO and the stock will be overnight at least 10! The trouble is the SHM do absolutely nothing to change anything. It is simply an annoying legal requirement to hold it and brings no change whatsoever unless some major statements are timed around it. This is the most we could expect.
This stock will move into double digits this year. Whether in a slow motion or very quickly depends entirely on the news to come. A major government order or well timed order news ahead of the shareholders meeting could double the sp in no time. The reason for the present move up without any real news is market anticipation of a major move soon. The admiral, the government top priority for cyber security, the backing of major TPM players, Wave unique products, all contribute to an unbeatable move forward. There is no question that admiral Inmam would have not put his name forward (no matter how friendly is his relationship with Peter Sprague) unless he has seen the potential. If he has seen it, it is not that difficult for others to follow!
At this point in time the fundamental question is whether Wave will become the superstar of NAC security management or will get fiercely competition from the established security companies (WaveMagics of this world) who are not going to wait to see Wave grab it all and will either try to get into the game or buy Wave. In the first case the SP could shoot to anywhere, in the second the outcome is open because of unknown timing. If Wave with all those biggies behind like Dell, Samsung, Acer and many others from TPM group will move quickly the company value could easily exceed 1 billion and then it is a major player by itself. Will be there enough speed? Lets hope so
I am afraid so. The stockholders did not decide anything in much harder times, do you really expect them to make any radical decisions now when the things move up?
Whether SKS is to be removed or not is not something this board will decide. Wave is a tightly run company by family and friends. This group has been remarcably stable in spite of all turbulences Wave went trough. Eventually they do make the right decisions like dropping TVTonic, even if one might argue it was late. Furthermore we have to finally acknowledge that after the failure of the famous E chip of Peter Sprague Wave had basically nothing to offer. It is now that finally the company has the right offer and the right market. The opportunity is unique. Would another CEO have done better? Perhaps but who can prove that???
I left this board long time ago when the SP was just under $2 and clearly the company was moving down toward facing a survival issue. One reason for leaving was the unabated optimism of this board without listening to any critical voices. Another reason were SKS statements which were predicting latest the BE by Quarter 2 in 2007!!! It was just too much to listen... Still I contnues to watch Wave because I had no choice: as an investor I had such a huge paper loss that there was no option to get out but basically I have written my Wave investment off. The more pleasant is the surprise to notice that Wave is (almost) back! If the SP does not reflect it there is only one reason for that: Wave through repeated false statements has lost its credibility to a very large extent and the market will accept only hard facts and nothing else. There is no question that a new much more credible Wave CEO will do a lot to the SP but given the internal Wave connections this is most likely unrealistic. The facts though are that Wave is placed better than ever in getting a significant security market share (but to believe that Wave will take it all is pure nonsense, there is enormous competition and will be even more). Certainly the political environment contribution cannot be overestimated, cybersecurity issues are high on more agendas than ever. I believe Wave did extremely well in focusing on SSDs etc because of the volumes and because there are relatively few manufacturers which could be covered by the limited Wave resources. Furthermore it is utterly unrealistic to expect from a 80+ company like Wave to have the sales force to cover thousands of companies which might be interested in ERAS. These things take time and patience is a must. But once he Wave name is established as a security benchmark, things could move very quickly by themselves. The dropping of TVTonic was a late but most welcomed decision which changed completely the profitability issue. It is rather sad that the enormous improvement after the Q1 2009 release has gone almost unnoticed in the market. Any other company would have shot up 100% or more. Again it is the Wave credibility issue which makes too many too suspicious. I am looking forward to an astonishing success story latest by the end of this year.
Unlike most other NASDAQ listed companies Wave has come in without having any product, any installed base, any customers. It relied on big initial donnors and on credibility of Peter Sprague, the long term chairman of National Semiconductor. Once the first big project failed and with this the initial capital it was the clear intention of Spragues to finance Wave with shareholders money and empty promises over the years. Whether this is legally sustainable time will show but it is clearly the most unethical company in the NASDAQ history. Would anybody dare to compare the NASDAQ listing of Google which happened after a solid market show with Wave. How much longer will take this board to accept that Wave is the biggest value killer in NASDAQ history after those which are already bust as well as the fact that the Spragues are running Wave and Wavexpress like a family business without owning a single piece of it? The whole story is insane
At this stock price it is perhaps time for the BoD to take some radical decisions. Even if the BoD is personally strongly connected to Peter Sprague, latest by now they all must realize that they are totally neglecting their elementary duties, that is to ensure that the management is fulfilling its obligations toward shareholders, customers and employees. For too many years this was not the case. In a market where the tech stocks are still booming Wave is showing a catastrophical result. Nobody is interested in empty statements and discredeted CEO. Hopefully BoD will act. The sooner the CEO goes the better for everybody. Should he survive the next shareholder meeting then the shareholders will get what they deserve
This is an attempt to explain the all-time low (plus few cents) stock price which persists for quite some time now. In spite of a number of good news the stock price is not really moving neither in value nor in volume. IMO here are the reasons for Wave stock deplorable performance:
- has never had ever any positive cash-flow
- since 6 years the sock has moved only in one direction: down either because of non-performance and/or intentional dilution
- the wave investment in wavexpress might make some technical sense but none whatsoever in financial terms; to have two companies loosing consistently and permanently money is an absolute nonsense
- furthermore both companies are run like a family business with Peter Sprague in background; thie is the same Sprague who is responsible for the famous E-chip which costed Wave years of efforts, tons of money and energy with nil result
- although both companies are run by the family, it is easy to overlook the plain fact, that they do not own anything anymore;
it is catastrophical that management is not owning any real stock, the worst sign for any stock analyst
- the over-generous stock option program for the management and for employees is a major threat for any elevated stock price once the stock will achieve a desired level; a major handicap for any company which is playing iresponsible with the options.
- needles to repeat, the CEO statements are becoming a joke; no one stock analyst will seriously consider any of his statements; if Wave would manage to hire a respected CEO in the IT community the stock would triple in no time
- Dell, Seagate, Intel deals have not been achieved by SKS but by products developed by Lark Allen and his team
- the additional enterprise level security layer is not an instant hit, the companies are not jumping on it, there is a lot of resistance both from inside as well as from companies involved with other security solutions; it will take much longer than expected
- the news about DELL/Seagate FDE is widely known to hundreds of thousands of people in IT community, that is Dell, Seagate, Intel, Microsoft employees as well as everybody involved with company security issues; no stock grabing even from these informed people
Should Wave prove that it is financially self-sustainable, serious in its statements and achieve some real revenues the stock could easily get into double digits in 6+ months.
You might realize that the quality of CEO, his statements and predictions influence the stock price of any company. The street has dismissed SKS and it is by now totally irrelevant what he is saying. This means that he has become a liability for Wave. Indeed only a powerful revenue increase will change the picture.
There has been a significant number of positive announcements from Wave: smart signing room, convergent computing agreement and above all the Dell/Seagate FDE which might bring a lot of positive surprises for the revenue. Nevertheless the share price is still at all-time low. Nothing is really moving neither in price nor in volume. The only reason is a discredeted CEO who is enormously damaging for the Wave image. Sooner or later the Board will have to appoint him something like non-executive or honorary chairman and appoint a competent CEO otherwise the damage will either be permanent or a new Board has to be elected by owners, that is by shareholders.
The stock is hitting again an all-time low and there are already people hurrying to predict Wave end. This is nonsense. The company has never been better positioned to take advantage of the coming TPM boom and eventually will succeed if will succeed in managing finances properly and putting priorities right.
The reason for the present SP all-time low is entirely the discredeted CEO, lacking any credibility whatsoever. Under his direction Wave managed to sank huge funds (150 Mio.) into nothing at the time when everybody had unlimited trust in Wave "miracle". Now Wave is struggling to find few millions to survive from quarter to quarter. SKS statements about
non-existing products, about breakeven "exact" dates and other "optimistic" predictions led to the sad fact that whatever statements are coming out from Wave they are disregarded entirely by the market.
When Microsoft was about to make it, Bill Gates had the modesty and the brilliance to recognise that a computer genius is not necessarily a marketing and sales genius. So he brought in an entire team from Procter&Gamble who made the products fly. The rest is known.
When two computer geniuses Larry Page and Sergey Brink were about to make Google, they recognised the same fact like Bill Gates did. So they had the modesty and brilliance to bring in a CEO, Eric Schmidt who helped avoid all kind of traps in bringing a new unknown company to the present world level.
SKS might be a brilliant engineer but certainly not the CEO who could make Wave big, on the contrary in terms of management he did as much damage as possible. If he would have the wisdom to take care of Embassy technical side and bring in a competent CEO it would help him, Wave and not least the shareholders.
My previous messages came under fierce atacks including personal ones, so I would like to remind those who felt "touched" by my messages some undeniable facts:
- one of the basic management obligation of any public listed company is to preserve and increase the shareholder values. This has not been of any concern to the Wave management but on the contrary, the stock has been in free fall since 2003. It is still a mistery, even market bubble considered, how could WAVX achieve a price of 150(reverse split considered) not having any product and any revenue. Now Wave has products and some revenue,the stock price is still at its lowest historical point, the volume is ridiculous, no analysts are recommending the stock. Who is responsible? Could it be that the consistent uterly wrong predictions coming out of Lee undermined even a slight credibility in Wave statements?
- the initial expectations that enterprises will jump on NAC (or NAP) has not materialised and Wave would be today still without revenue if not Dell/Seagate which is responsible for the bulk of a very small revenue. Needless to say, Wave is not in the position to impose any reasonable pricing for its largest customers therefore the price for Dell/Seagate is not really known and is a matter of guessing, particulary for higher volumes. Furthermore, everybody knows that a company which relies only on a couple of major accounts is under permanent danger. Will Wave be able to change that? So far, nothing major came up. Dell/Seagate is the only Wave real business so far, although the initial focus was completely different.
- the potentially huge TPM market is not going to be left to a tiny company like Wave. Already there are some developments around but Wave has still a window of opportunity now in order to become a company with some real earnings/share. Some people here dream about 20-30 bagger prices in one year or so. What about hoping for a SP of 4 in the next 2-3 months?
wavxmaster, thank you for the link. I think our onnly disagreement is the issue of timing. I do believe that TPM will succeed and Wave has a huge chance, but the road is not going to be neither quick nor easy. Let me quote from your link what SKS is saying : It will take a little while before most corporations areready to handle that from the deployment perspective". I am just warning about exagerated expectations and I am still not in clear to what extent the Q3-Q4 revenue could ensure the financing for Q1 08
eamonnshute, if you need to upgrade go ahead and do it.
Most computer security companies will even deny that TPM exists. Formally there might be even right because the number of installed TPM networks is as good as insignificant yet. Nevertheless their reasoning is based mostly on their own business which is partly or completely threaten by TPM. The worse side of the issue is the fact that they control just about everything in the security area and based on their installed base and on their newer and better products there is a lot of brainwashing going on to convince their customers that the status quo is ok. The consequence is that so far there was no massive rush toward TPM and there will be hardly one in the near future. TPM is an uphill battle and the fact that Wave is finally out with real products does not mean an instant great win. having the industry behind and more and more complex network architectures ahead TPM should be in time a real winner.
wavxmaster, you are absolutely entitled to your opinion regardind Wave revenues for Q3-Q4. What you cannot do is to impose your opinion on this board because everybody is entitled to his opinion exactly as you are. You might not like my forecast which is conservative but it is based on following:
- for the last 6 years the performance and the forecasts coming from Wave have been catastrophical;
- there is a powerful move from the computer security industry to stop TPM based enterprise security standard. There are no signs yet that enterprises are massively and eagerly jumping on adopting this standard. Snackman presented recently an article where it is very clearly stated in the last few lines: whether TPM based enterprise security will become standard remains to be seen.
- the shipment volume for the Q3 is completely unknown because there is no track record. It is a FIRST involving FDE therefore any guess is as good as the other.
- in the forecast business unless we are in a production enterprise where the production units/human resources depend on the forecast which is not the case, it is most advisable to be on the conservative side. This leaves room for pleasant surprises (certainly no guarantee) rather than the other way around.
In few months we will know who was closer to reality.
I very much hope you are right and I am wrong. I doubt strongly your revenue figures for both Q3,Q4. In my opinion will be hardly half of it but again I wish I am wrong.
One most important topic in this board discussions is hardly mentioned although it is imo the most critical one: what is happening 31st December 2007 when even by most optimistic expectations (unless a miracle will happen) Wave will be out of money or very close to that. The alternatives are extremely poor for the SP: sell of the left 10 million stock, further splitting(!!!), taking the company private(end of everything), debt which is certainly the least painful one. Obviously there will be no any indications whatsoever from the company what their plans are. To me this is the real question which overshadows just anything else.
Klick on profile in WAVX Quote and the figure is there
May I point out a small but IMO very significant moment: out of 8 million shares hold by institutions 2 million have been bought in August! This is more than encouraging
Many thanks to those who commented my previous message. As some questions have arised let me give the answers:
TPM seems to be a winner. All heavyweights are in TCG and unless some very unexpected changes will occur I subscribe to JC Dummont opinion that one day all computers will be TPM. The strongest criticism of TPM is the fact that the user is loosing the full control over his computer but this has no merit. It affects a very tiny very sophisticated experts minority and there will be always ways to solve such an issue.
Should TPM be a clear winner Wave is indeed ahead of others but the pie is just too big to be left to a very small company unless... If HP and/or Arcer+Lenovo would go Embassy this would establish de facto Embassy as an industry standard and then the sky is no limit. I am sure Wave management is very much aware of this. But it is a big IF.
Going down to earth, whether the Q3-Q4 revenue will be enough to finance the company in Q1 of 2008 is open just because it would be a FIRST. There is no precedence, there is no track record. Some very positive revenue surprises might do but it is not very likely. Then the Wave management has the opportunity to show whether they are concerned at all about shareholder value or they do not give a damn. At this point in time there is no reason whatsoever to question future revenue increases so some long-term debt should be a non-issue unless the management thinks differently. If I remember correctly, under the agreement with SEC Wave could still sell 10 million shares. What this will do to the SP I leave it to your imagination.We will see.
Last but not least without doubting the litigeous nature of US which is certainly more pronounced then in Europe, we are not talking about the entire PC market but about its very professional and sophisticated part of it which might update or be obliged to do so. The more important is Intel and Microsoft effort which will leave no alternative. The question for a tiny company like Wave is the timing. If the timing is now then we are in for most pleasant surprises, if not then what? Q3-Q4 will give the answer.
because there are people here dreaming about SP of 500 or 100 bagger let me get into the thinking of a virtual stock analyst:
Indeed Embassy is an excellent product, its value being decisevely increased by ERAS.
For the first time Wave is having exclusive products, sellable and accepted by some heavyweights in the industry.
If Wave would be a 6 months old IPO the SP would be well in the double digits and be a most promising stock to invest and/or to follow. The reason why this is not the case is the credibilty loss of any official Wave statement. Too many empty words and broken promises only revenue numbers will change the present SP close to an almost all time low. Loyality, solidarity, enthusiasm, dreams are wonderful human features but most miserable when is coming to investments where only facts and figures count.
Furthermore there are at least 20 or so companies, mostly midsized involved in security business of all kind. True by far not all have anything to do with network access computing but at the end of the day the clients are interested only whether there have been any security breaches or not. In spite of all the spectaculat hackes stories and lost laptops most customers do not experience any vital security breaches. Additionally it is very unlikely that military, government, major financial and multinational companies will order an overhaul of their entire exorbitantly expensive networks and replace them overnight with FDE/ERAS fitted systems. It is totally unrealistic to expect that the 20 or so security companies are sitting in their corners and do nothing to retain and expand their installed base.
The sad fact that Wave management so far lacked the guts to get credits for the operation prefering to dilute the SP very close to nil is not going to inspire any enthusiasm for Wave either. Lets not forget that by the end of the year the present financial reserves are burned. Who knows what will happen then?
There have been enough miserable quarters so a good quarter would fundamentally change the present picture. Wil be this quarter? It better be or at least the 4th one then there is a point to talk about SP of 4 by the end of the year but only then.
The stock price of 150 in March 2001 had no justification whatsoever. The same is true for the present price which is slightly more than 1% of that price.
6 years ago the incredible high price was a combination of high-tech bubble, incredible statements from Wave and not least the prospect of taking over the huge network security market.
In reality except some promises there were no products, no revenue and the outcome is known.
Today is the other way around: there is an excellent product available, there is a slight beginning of a real revenue and some heavyweights of the industry are including Embassy in one form or other in their offer. Nevertheless the stock price is not moving. The reasons are rather simple: Wave management lost any credibility with their never fulfilled statements regarding Wave revenues, breakeven dates and so on. No matter how many further statements will issued this is not going to change much. The street is watching Wave negatively not only because of that but because of some other issues too: Wave management is not owning any significant stock, the financing of ongoing operations is done by diluting the shares value, that is the management responsibilities toward shareholders are the last priority of the company. No so the other two main responsabilities toward clients and employees. Finally the shareholders are having their part of gilt, because over the years the shareholder meetings did not produce anything but a get together of a happy(!!!) family and nothing like asking who is responsible for the shareholder value desaster. In any other company in the world no management would have survived for so long and untouched. The only thing which matters now are the hard figures, nothing else will take the stock price out of almost lowest historical point. Lets hope Dell will help, there must be a jump but it will not be enough. Before breakeven hardly will the street notice Wave in a real positive way.
It is refreshing to see that some more realistic messages regarding Wave performance are starting to appear. The hype on this board is such that one might think we have behind a 10 time bagger whereas the reality is exactly the opposite. In all respect to the technical gurus around and all kind of predictions for 2008 or future decades what really matters is the revenue for Q3-Q4. By the end of Q4 the available financing is exhausted. The ideal solution would be a major revenue increase so this would offset to some extent the burning of $12 Mio. this and next quarter. If this will happen then Wave is finally on the right track and the stock price could jump significantly. Should this not materialise, very nasty surprises are unavoidable. Lets hope it will not be the case.
I have to apologise for my previous message, Wave has no debt indeed, my info was wrong. Instead I understand Wave lost about $300+Mio. all written of and paid by taxpayers...
On the other 2 points which provoked some comments too let me say following:
HP is using Infineon but I strongly suspect they are working on their own solution. Infineon is not a solution in long-term, Wave is offeered by the archenemy Dell( Wave has to become industry standard before HP touches it or it makes Wave industry standard, too good to be true) but there is one more critical reason for own development. DoD has extremely tight limitation on foreign equipment procurement. Would they accept a foreign solution just in the security area? Very difficult to imagine.
Finally on the stock price. Applying the reverse splitting Wave has been once at $150! Does anybody believe Wave will move from $1.5 to $150??? Much more realistic is Dutton prediction of §4 in the next 12 months. Lets make it clear: Dutton is the ONLY analyst looking into Wave and recommending it. The reason is very simple: Wave pays for the research. Nevertheless Dutton is doing an honest job and is openly stating that it is impossible to predict Embassy acceptance in the market. No other analyst will touch Wave for a very simple reason: should the company go bust, they will loose right away their jobs. Would anybody be prepared to recommend a company whose fate is very much open. SKS might make X presentations to any analysts gathering, there will be no change and it is a waste of time. The only thing which will change the status quo will be revenue and break even figures. Do not get me wrong, I am a Wave investor too and I hope the company will succeed. But there is no guarantee. What worries me additionally is the huge amount of money paid to company executives in the present situation. No voluntaries to take a substantial salary cut, not a fair sign. Well, by the end of the year everything will clear up in one way or other.
Having watching this board for long time I would like to make following comments:
1. There are a lot of dreamers and wishful thinkers posting all kind of unrealistic forecasts about stock price:20, 200 and so on. The reality is that Wave has few millions own capital and is desperately struggling for survival. Whether it will survive or not the next 2 quarters will decide. Until then keep your breath and pray. It is about to be, not to be or have again an immensely diluted stock. If the revenues are not going to grow over $4Mio./Quarter the survival issue is going to be more than critical.
2. It is utterly wishful thinking to believe HP is going to depend on Wave for TPM. Dell is another story because it basically ceased any real own R&D activities and therefore has no much choice. HP has not giving up its old philosophy that nothing is better than what is developed in-house. The Carly time has been an exception in this direction. Mike Hurds is not going to make the same mistakes. The time when a tiny company could turn the market upside are gone in an established industry like the computer industry are gone as well. The giants are not letting this happen. As soon as a small company is showing a promising product it is either swallowed or driven out of the market. In Wave case a takeover is not realistic because of its huge debt which inflates its price enormously unless there are tricks to get rid of it.On the positive side Wave technical staff is outstanding and could be of interest to any company. So where does it leave Wave? With a decent survival revenue it could penetrate some governmental and enterprise market which could lift the stock price to few $. From there on it is open because the competition will become fierce and own resources remain scarce.
3. There is no question that Wave management thinks big, speaks big and arises enormous expectations which are hardly justified. The facts are that until less than a year ago Wave was just hype not having a real product. Now there are some outstanding products available but the marketing skills and power are at least questionable. If one is watching the management statements over the years, one has to wonder why Wave is not in the Microsoft, Google league! Therefore whatever statements are coming from Wave they cannot be taken entirely serious, too much noise for very little real stuff. Lets hope thing will converge and the statements will reflect more the reality which right now is very grim: lowest stock price ever and survival most questionable. No words will help to cover this reality just figures.
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