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Much as you try to pump, GTCB is drowning under severe dilution and and with no meaningful revenues on sight for several years.
Hugh overhang from LFB deal at 0.31 cents
IDIX - No wonder its CEO today said about 'intense interest' on the recent results related to 100 mg dosage of the IDX899 compound.
"Data from the study demonstrate that the 100 mg/day cohort achieved a mean plasma viral load reduction of 1.87 log10 after seven days of treatment, similar to the potency observed with the other evaluated doses of 800 mg, 400 mg, and 200 mg/day in this study. As with the other cohorts, no treatment-related serious adverse events were reported for any of the patients receiving 100 mg/day of IDX899 and no patients discontinued the study"
http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/recent/2008/091208_d.html
If indeed the partnership deal for IDIX between 150M to 500M (based on Dew's musings) turns out to be true, pps will move quickly north of $10.
Deals of this size can only mean high degree of confidence on IDX899 P2 trail outcome, IMHO
• Operating cash burn in 2009 will be about $66M (the same level as in 2008)
• No financing will be required to fund operations in 2009 (although the company might opt to raise money opportunistically)
Is there a chance IDIX might issue shares rather than a partnership deal to raise money to meet the cash burn for 2009 ?
TIA
I think based on LFB getting into GTCB's tent at 0.31, I see the pps bottoming around 0.40 until a deal is announced. Keep in mind, just few months ahead and if GTCB doesn't come up with cash (very unlikely), the # of shares goes to 190M with very severe dilution.
0.50 cents probably is true valuation until a new FOB partnership announced which unlikely to happen until FDA gives formal approval.
Based on deal with Ovation, I suspect they have sold all possible & potential revenue streams (coronary bypass, DIC etc) out of Atryn to them (~$270 Million).
What GTCB should have done is to sign a deal that allows substantial amount upfront once FDA approves the 'platform' from Ovation which they miserably failed to do.
This is what Dew totally missed (the obvious public & media impact of such a great milestone). I am sure just as I, many followers of this board bailed out when he quit.
GTCB screwed up big time, the DIC trails thru LEO partnership. They should have engaged someone in Japan as plasma derived anti-thrombin is already approved for DIC indication.
As long as COX and his cronies are at helm, GTCB will be eventually sold for pennies and shareholders won't even get to pick bones once the goat chops are long gone.
FWIW, I sold out of GTCB last month and invested into Citigroup and HIG. Glad I did.
I got my phone call today as well and I said NO on all counts.
I rather would lose all my money than give cox and his BOD month after month draw premium salary like a leeches feasting on a dead horse.
GTC BOD are shameless considering they seem to have authorized these phone calls.
Best post I have seen so far.
GTC should fire all the 11 directors and get a investment banker instead for all that monthly payroll money.
If we break 20 cents, next stop is at 15...
Amazing, no distant cousins rushing to scoop yet..that does tell something
Did anyone notice, the 1 YR target on Yahoo is now showing 0.50 cents..!!
Talk about 87% haircut ....$4 to 0.50
Mary Ann Gray joined the BOD exactly for this purpose but apparently didn't do squat to unlock the company's potential to investor community.
She turned out to be just another 'career' fatcat....makes me sick
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2007_Dec_6/ai_n27467585
Agree. Looks like with RS on the cards, PPS will be ~0.10 cents which makes post-RS pps to be around $2.
What concerns me is all the options thrown in for the fatcats being still valid regardless of RS
A leaf from the past...LEO could very well be in the same situation for DIC trials..
Bayer shelves drug produced from transgenic sheep. (Recombinant Proteins).
By Scott, Alex
Publication: Chemical Week
Date: Wednesday, July 16 2003
Bayer says it has shelved commercialization of its recombinant protein drug Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (recAAT) developed to treat lung disorders. PPL Therapeutics (Roslin, U.K.), which was to have manufactured the drug for Bayer using transgenic sheep, says it will shed up to 90% of its total staff, or about 130 positions, as a result of Bayer's withdrawal from the project.
Bayer says it cancelled the deal because of rising financial risks associated with the drug's clinical phase II trials, which FDA has asked to be repeated in parts because of a high drop out rate of trial
I think everyone on this board should just vote NO on this 2nd LFB infusion. I mean, it's not as if there is anything left to lose.
They own 20% but the rest are ours, minus the 1% or so management may still own. So why not? send a message to the fwench that we do not roll over as easily as they do.
Obviously this is a blessing in disguise in the sense the need to do RS no longer exists. Assuming they somehow come with enough cash to last until Atryn is approved in Feb 2009, RS may never need to happen.
I do not want to sound the panic button
You just did..LOL..
What an end to one of the largest biotech scams. Nuvelo ran a well-disguised Phase 3 trials that had strict FDA protocol but was not publicized as such in their PR's. Every analyst on the street including Funds didn't see this hidden bomb just waiting to explode.
My 2 cents musings after loosing roughly $200K in 2006 end.
I don't think early biotechs ever trade on fundementals. IP values do dictate the PPS along with how far the pipeline has progressed.
Once DIC trails come out positive (assuming GTCB lasts that long), PPS will skyrocket.
Another research Japanese paper documents the find of Antithrombin-III (plasma derived) to be effective in DIC in controlling the organ failure
"Abstract;This paper describes anticoagulant action of antithrombin-III concentrated preparation. Antithrombin-III concentrate is prepared by isolation and purification of human plasma, and is used for treatment of congenital antithrombin-III deficiency and disseminated intravascular coagulation syndrome (DIC). Antithrombin-III concentrate has an action for DIC and is effective for organ failure in DIC with showing reduced death rate. Antithrombin-III has an action for promoting production of prostaglandin I2."
http://sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/199914/000019991499A0438051.php
Obviously holds high promise for Atryn...
Not sure if this has been posted earlier on the board.... benefit study of transgenic goat milk that has Lysozyme cited in a research publication
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18424602
All I meant was would they (GTCB board) take advantage of how market may react to 'likely' buy-out scenario because of this amendment filing for another round of financing.
The board is not obligated to accept any buy-outs just because of change-of-control ammendment, are they ?
Just a passing thought...what if, knowing well, the management put in the change-of-control ammendment expecting pps to go > $1 and staying there for some time. This will serve two objectives:
1. PPS > $1 to get back to Nasdaq Global Market
2. Another round of financing (similar to what they did at 0.87)
They could do both these until actual buy-out happens, if at all.
Is this conceivable ?
TIA
Feel like plucking in 20 grand to buy 50K tomorrow.
Might exactly do that
I see some common ground between MNTA and GTCB..
Both are out to get cheaper generic versions of more complex therauptic drups. One (MNTA) is doing by some innotive 'Technology' tool while GTCB is doing thru transgenic method. End result is if GTCB gets is Atryn approved by FDA, the pps will skyrocket purely on its patents/technology value alone..all IMHO
Dew, what's your take on TARG (Targenta) who have a very powerful oritavancin antibotic in their pipleine and results look very promising.
TIA
Dew, unable to expect the unexpected in biotech world has been the single most pitfall for most of the retal investors like me. I agree there is no connection between the Nuvello and GTCB ; however I still remember bitterly how Nuvello and the analysts alike were trumping the success only to find the P3 did not even meet the secondary endpoints.
I know GTCB's Atryn has no such issues. However FDA's approval for transgenic drugs being a major milestone in US biopharma history, I hope nothing prevents GTCB from getting the approval or encounter any sort of delay.
After seeing what could happen with Nuvello two years ago, anything is possible including FDA asking for more data or denying for some unknown reason. Hope not..
Great post...
Part of the problem to GTCB's current plight is lack of 'socializing' with the wall street especially with reputable firms to cover their story.
I think the only major event that's going to move the stock is DIC and until then why can't they take a 'loan' from current partners ?
I know my bashing was bit overboard when I mentioned on the 10cents dip on PPS.
However I am still curious to know what happens to the investor who plucked in 6 Million for GTCB shares at 0.87 early this year...
With all the massive dilutions you are talking about, is he not screwed as well ??? TIA
Dr. Cox continues to burn money and waste goats time...it's time he is kicked out..
What a crap..the presentation attendance was pathetic and as usual, he was talking to himself most of the time..
We will see south of 0.10 Cents in a weeks time
Great Post ! and I tip my hat fully on your comments...
The real red flag I am watching is whether any of the current officers resign on short term. Bio technology whether related to goats or not is always valuable and won't blame the GTCB R&D folks to flee if the ship starts to sink...hope not.
So what happens to the investor who shelled $6 mill not too long ago to get bunch of shares at 0.87 (plus warrants to boot) ? Is he screwed too ?
So in nutshell, GTCB management has screwed the shareholders...their long term goal is only one thing.. is how to get their fatcat salaries month after month..
Part of the issue with GTCB is all the hype the management themeselves create and to blame for...their charts talked about US Partnership end of last year and nothing happened until now & that too with no real punch in the short term. Also in many of the interviews, Dr Cox himself has painted a rosy picture of 'no care' attitute & that all is going well in the goats farmland..
Lastly, lack of information is frustrating as well..what's going on with Atryn sales in Europe ? Reimbursement rates etc......
Why is it so difficult to get meaningful and realistic info. from this company. Have goats eaten Dr. Cox's homework papers ?
The lack of buying interest or support from both insiders and institutions is bit scary...
What the **** Dr Cox and his gang are doing ?
Now that the cat is out of the bag, what's the issue regarding insider buys ?
On another note, hope Ovation puts GTCB on their partnership map.
http://www.ovationpharma.com/page.php?id=10
Now that a deal has been announced with Ovation, bit surprised no insider buys yet..
Hopefully Dr Cox will show some more support soon..
Does the partnership agreement with Ovation covers DIC indication too (assuming GTC meets undisclosed milestones related to DIC trials) ? If so, seems $257m is cheap considering the huge market for DIC in US.