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What’s your takeaway from Dr. Stupp’s comments?
The lady that asked the question is Dr. Isabelle Germano a well known Neurosurgeon from Mt Sinai. If I remember correctly she has collaborated with LL and was pretty active during the presentation LL gave at Mt. Sinai remotely in April/May of last year where LL shared details about the new SAP and ECA. Interesting that the question came from her!
I love your upbeat attitude and confidence!
“they have no credibility left“
I think all the supporting info we have seen come through suggests otherwise, but they do need to rebuild trust with retail shareholders and investor community. And the only way to do that is through a peer reviewed NEJM or Lancet paper sooner than later. I’d think someone like LL, KA wouldn’t stick around if they thought otherwise. Plus Dr. Stupp coming onboard as an advisor is terrific news! Something big is brewing. I just hope they’re able to release TLD & publication this quarter and don’t run into further delays!
As long as we don’t have any other (distracting) PR from NWBO in the coming days/weeks, it signals a bullish sign to me. That would indicate we are very close to getting a publication out any day eliminating the need to announce any other news to calm retail shareholders when something massive is around the corner.
Did he have a say in the journal first strategy? He signed up in Sept 2020. That’s when they decided to switch from TLD soon to TLD+Publication approach in Oct 5 PR.
It would also be interesting to see his current disclosures. Is he still advising/consulting for NWBO?
Gary,
Appreciate your perspective!
How much money in total do you think NWBO used in the last 10-12 years for DCVAX-L and Direct trials? There is no guarantee that we won’t go through the same challenges and journey again even if we receive $1 or 2B in cash injection via partnership. There is still a ton of work on the Direct side to understand optimal dosage, delivery mechanism, efficacy, etc. Its another 10 year journey, for sure. How old will the current management be? Believe me, NWBO management team would want a buyout regardless of what your hear them say in public domain! ;)
I personally believe Merck is the best company to get a deal done (provided they value NWBO fairly). They have a leadership position in oncology. They have appropriate experience, network, team to fast track future oncology trials. Also, when you spend in excess of $20B for an acquisition, you’re not thinking about necessarily delaying the introduction of a new technology even if it undercuts some of their legacy business(es). You work towards creating additive value, and think of it as complementary rather than competitive product. By the way, which of Merck’s product will DCVAX-L replace and when?
Anyway, I am with you we will have publication this quarter, in which case I will hold on for another year to see how they approach various RAs and go to market strategy. If my intuition is right, we will see a buyout before that!
I am actually with ATLnsider on this. I’d think they would go with FDA first with everything we have seen come out in the form of publications since October even though they have publicly expressed their desire to go after UK first. If that’s not the case, then I worry about their confidence in FDA approvals. I don’t think political pressure tactic will work with FDA. In fact, it could be counter productive.
Who knows maybe they apply via project Orbis.
Anyway, first things first they got to release TLD and publication ASAP to provide clarity to shareholders, medical and patient advocacy groups.
Gary,
Yes, I’ll drop out myself. I am learning to decouple myself from such investments. It’s tough, but such investments require constant DD and I personally don’t have much time to give with a demanding full time job and family. I can always come back once data is out if and when there is a window of opportunity. While there are some positives of this management, there are also some negatives and I can’t continue to give them the benefit of the doubt on some of those aspects much longer. I am not a big fan of DI’s private calls with investors and how information/bread crumbs are supposedly delivered. Any communication (that I can trust) has to come in the form of public PR. Otherwise there is no accountability and I don’t support that. Also, it’s not reasonable to expect LL, KA, KOL SAB and others to help us cross the finish line. After all, they all have an extremely demanding full time job and this is not their company.
From a long term perspective, I sincerely hope that someone like Merck comes in and takes this technology to another level. Otherwise, I think even with great data and science, we will continue to be a company with excellent technology, but with subpar commercial success. From my perspective (and I know quite a few folks will view this with a different lens and that’s fine), I like the Silicon Valley culture where great companies and successful start up founders hustle for everything and equate time to money. Competition is not going to sit idle and there will always be another innovation around the corner. I know pharma industry functions differently, but there is still no substitute for that energy and drive in entrepreneurs/founders to find solutions to any problems that come your way in the most creative and expeditious fashion. I just don’t see that, to be honest. NWBO management to some degree function more like academicians than big, successful industry executives.
I mean our science is real. There is no question in anyone’s mind regarding this. What we really need is big investors to step in and/or meme mania to catch on post TLD. Unless Merck has everything under control behind the scenes.
I’d still recommend it to folks. At this time, the downside risk is fairly minimal. But I’d advise them to get out and take the loss/profit, if there is no data this quarter.
Nice! I wish everyone gets friend like yours! On the contrary, my friend invested late in the game (with an average of around 0.9 even though I asked him to load around .30).
Why can’t we be the next meme stock with all of these wonderful stories, LOL!!!
LOL! We have close to 1.2M shares now between a couple of family members and a friend. The conversations with others have been painful to say the least, but we have collectively decided to exit our investment if we don’t get TLD (and publication) by end of Q1. Although I am fairly optimistic we get publication before end of March. That’s why I ended up adding more earlier this month in my retirement account. It’s just hard to convince the other members because they were like you were optimistic about last summer and fall as well. So they are now going increasingly silent in their communication with me! ;)
Unfortunately, I won’t be around to see that then, but I will wish everyone luck! My bet is Q1 and I am cautiously optimistic. If that doesn’t happen and they dangle any more carrots such as Flaskworks, regulatory approvals, etc. I am out.
You will get your chance to ridicule them in the next month or two! You will suddenly become a visionary in their eyes!
Good strategy!
I am in a similar conundrum. My WhatsApp communications with a few close ones (in other parts of the US) have been on a steady decline. Worried it will stop completely in the next 2 months! ;)
And don’t forget over 80 to 90% of the biotech ph 3 oncology trials fail so shorts have a much easier job! ;) No DD required and you are still winning in 8 or 9 out of 10 cases. They are spoilt and yet they have been on the wrong side far too often. The real skill is to pick the winners!
Gary,
Agreed. First things first, we need TLD + publication this quarter, and I think we are very close!
"NWBO may be frustrating to investors, but it's doing things right and I believe we'll be well rewarded for waiting".
You will notice he is slowly but steadily softening his stance! ;)
His previous assertations were there will be no data release at all this year or ever to now full results in H1, 2022!
Revenue of under 2M to now under 5M in 2022.
No approvals at all to no approvals in 2022.
We will have TLD + publication before he changes his mind again!
You bet! I know CLPT executive management team very well as we all worked together in our former jobs. Drug delivery will continue to be a massive focus for them as it's a much larger opportunity than everything else they are doing. However, there's more work that needs to be done on the technology and regulatory side before it gets mainstream. No wonder they got LL on their board of directors recently. Very likely Michael Bigger had something to do with it! ;)
I am familiar with CVM as I invested in it for a short period and was fortunate to ride the meme mania that stuck CVM when it spiked from teens to 40s in no time. Luckily I got out at the right time and put all my profits into adding more NWBO position. Anyway, as I have mentioned here before, the biggest difference in my mind between CVM and NWBO is the likes of LL, KA, and KOL SAB team on our side. This is also a testament to LP and executive management of NWBO. CVM didn’t have any of this. Plus our technology platform is broad with minimal to no side effects. Again, you can’t say the same thing with CVM multikine technology. Importantly, our OS data will be outstanding.
Are you claiming that LL, KA, and their KOL SAB is on this scam too since a few years? You should review the presentations and podcast that LL and KA made last spring. Don’t you think LL, KA and SAB are aware of what transpired in 2015? LL is the lead investigator of this trial.
What would NWBO management benefit from dragging this another year if the data was bad and the trial had already failed? On the flip side, they’d lose all the credibility and there would be no further funding/support on the development of this technology anymore. You claim they would do this for another year of paycheck, which is ridiculous! They have a lot more to lose both financially and from a credibility perspective by dragging this out.
“ And the patents too in Israel, Canada, Japan, Australia. Very expensive to file those pages and pages of patents. Why did NWBO spend a lot of efforts?”
Because Merck put this as a condition for buyout. Strong patent protection portfolio in major territories! ;)
Music to my ears!
Indeed, we are close. It’s either Feb or March. We might see 400-500% appreciation in one to two trading days similar to AMRN. And if they announce “BLA submitted” in that PR, the ceiling could be higher.
Unfortunately, they will even find ways to attack an article in NEJM or Lancet. Although it won’t go much far.
Massive indeed!!! LL should get a Nobel prize.
Great points!
I’d tend to think that buyout is still possible after the results, provided both sides are reasonable and wants to get the deal done. That’s why I’d like to think somewhere around $25B is a fair valuation immediately post FDA approval (for both parties).
I understand that big pharmas are after all commercially driven and financial motives come front and center. However, you can do good and make profits at the same time. After all, you need to believe in your mission and core values….that’s what ultimately drives employee retention, fresh talent acquisition, enhanced productivity, etc….So I wouldn’t just club big pharmas in this “money hungry” bucket….I want to propose there’s more to it!
Although their outstanding share count was about half of NWBO. Either way, I do believe we can get close to $10 on OTC because we are much further along than CYDY ever was and we are a platform technology backed by KOLs around the world. It’s just that OTCs are easier to manipulate and sustaining such high market cap for a pre revenue biotech is more difficult over a period unless you are able to get big investors along, which is again challenging on OTCs.
Agreed!
I agree with you. If the data is stellar and this essentially cures 25% of the nGBM patients, why would anyone in their right mind shelve this product when existing technologies are in the 5% range with a ton of side effects. Forget about the financial implications, just imagine the negative press someone like Merck would receive from clinical and patient community worldwide. They won’t risk that.
If the data is just a marginal improvement and not that convincing then it’s a different story.
Yes, I thought about that and that could potentially work. Buyout is just a lot cleaner with some compromises on both sides, I think. I just don’t know if LP and others in executive management would prefer JV over a quick buyout? Some of the executive management are in their 70s! Also, someone like Merck risks paying substantially more for the eventual buyout a few years down the road. The upside is they minimize risk. Let’s see how it plays out.
The next financing round post TLD will give us some indication which way it’s going to go over the next 6-12 months.
That may be their plan B if buyout fails for whatever reason.
I agree with most of your analysis. I know a lot of folks confuse valuations amongst EBIDTA, peak sales, current sales and all of that. But a lot of it is also governed on a variety of external factors such as the strength of the overall stock market (when multiples are typically sky high), competitors, underlying core technology (platform v/s product) and the value it adds to existing product pipeline in terms of extension of patents, better outcomes, etc. All of this will typically result in higher than normal valuation and additional risk taking. Take Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp for $16B in 2014 for example or recent Gilead acquisition of Immunomedics for $21B in late 2020.
Personally, I don’t think partnership model (of wait and watch before full acquisition) will work well in this case. It will take years to understand the impact of Direct. Importantly this management is not get younger and their execution history will remain a big question mark. If they (Merck) go JV route they would want to bring in new management with real hands-on experience to accelerate various activities. Will the current NWBO management agree to this or would they rather hand it off completely and retire knowing it’s in safe hands and that big pharma will provide faster access to this technology than they can to patients worldwide? In this case of immediate buyout, they (NWBO management) will have to make peace with themselves that they are leaving some value (appreciation) on the table because Merck is taking quite a bit of risk in terms of manufacturing expansion, Gross Margin improvement, future trials, etc.
We will see how it plays out once the TLD+publication is out. If they end up doing a major financing (dilution) round in a few weeks of this PR then near term buyout theory is out. On the other hand, if they continue to scrap their way to FDA approvals over the next 6 to 12 months without making any movements on the hiring side that will indicate buyout is around the corner.
I don’t think any big pharma will pay more than 100-150% of the current stock price. They don’t want backlash from their existing shareholders. However, if Merck executives see tremendous value in acquiring NWBO they will have folks work behind the scenes with MMs and investors to prop up our share price to a certain value (even on OTC) after FDA approvals such that the final premium they pay is under that 100-150%. This way, they are not offending NWBO management & shareholders while avoiding wrath of their existing shareholders.
Also, I don’t think any acquiring company will pay much more than $25B for NWBO assets at this stage even after FDA approvals of DCVAX-L (so about $15 to $20 SP considering about 1.25B outstanding shares). Don’t you think we can hit $7-10 on FDA approvals even on OTC? I think we can with the right players involved. Then the premium Merck pays is about 100% at the end of that trading day.
For much higher valuation, we will need to show consistent quarterly growth with annual revenues approaching at least a quarter to half billion as well as some progress on Direct trials. Otherwise it is quite difficult for an acquiring company to justify an acquisition of $30-40B or higher. And this could take NWBO a few years to achieve and that too in an ideal world.
An uplist is not necessary in case a buyout term sheet is agreed upon in advance. Just more distraction, loss of time and additional expenditure which no one wants. I am sure they (Merck) will get investors to support a certain SP for a few days post FDA approvals and then there will be 100% premium on top.
Scenario 1 (most likely, I’d give this 60%):
Buyout in H2 2022 between 15 to 20 dollars a share soon after FDA approval.
Scenario 2 (30%)
Buyout in H1 2023 between 15 to 20 dollars a share soon after FDA approval.
Scenario 3 (10%)
Partnership in H2 2022 with 10-20% stake at anywhere between 7 to 10B market cap valuation.
“With no article this week, will be interesting to see the direction this takes.“
I am looking forward to seeing how that plays out as well. I was fortunate to add some more at .72 in our retirement accounts about a week or so ago. I plan to hold until TLD or end of quarter whichever comes first.