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Now for the bad news... merely from an informational standpoint, nothing truly bad except our curiosity may remain unrequited for another month. I went to the Vimeo posting from last year's AGM and checked out the source code, and found this:
window.vimeo.clip_page_config = {"clip":{"id":177461437,"title":"2016 Annual General Meeting (AGM)","description":null,"uploaded_on":"2016-08-03 16:05:18"
Last year's AGM wasn't posted until August 3. We may well have another month to wait for some of these answers.
Maybe we should be writing to ask for a more expedient posting of the video this year, given Mr. McNally's claim of improved transparency.
If Ximedica is still in the picture, it would have been imperative to mention them at the AGM.
TO, if you are on line, do you recall any mention of Ximedica?
Otherwise we continue to wait for the AGM video to be posted.
As for the number of EV units, I vaguely recall something previous (probably about a year ago or so) which summarized the need for all the EV units. It was like one or two per training site, one or two to Europe for something, one or two for ongoing development (I would suspect whoever is doing software development needs a platform or two to run each iterative software release; simulators can only do so much toward a validation effort). If there are or will be 8 or 9 units, the question in my mind isn't "Why do they need so many?", it should be "How can they get by with so few?" I would be thinking two per training site and two for Europe is 8 (if a site has only one SPORT and it goes down, valuable people on tight schedules are standing around doing nothing or they go home and re-schedule, causing delays); two for ongoing development (one dedicated to software and the other for dual purpose SW/HW development); one for demos and maybe marketing toward investors (can't market the unapproved product but can use it as a tool to market the investment opportunity).
If they were expecting delays, would they not have been required to update the schedule portion of the prospectus when they shifted the costs to 2018? There has to be more to the story, but I cannot assume it is bad until we know that it is bad. This team does not have a history of "bad" so that will not be my first assumption. I'm going with somewhere between neutral and good.
Good morning ST, and all here in Titanland!
Thanks Longmoney for the posted link to that article. I had not seen it, and in our current position, all press is good press!
I saw the last prospectus on SEDAR yesterday when I went in to look at the published schedule (milestones) but I hadn't noticed that they deferred some costs without delaying the schedule. Renovatio33, that was a good catch! I can't help but feel that there is more to that story as well. Would love to know those details too!
Still would love to see the AGM video get posted soon. I don't remember it taking this long last year.
Meanwhile, I will summarize the schedule from the Short Form Prospectus on SEDAR from last week:
Finalize User Requirements, Q1 2017, Complete.
Select/Confirm facilities for pre-clinical studies, Q2 2017, Identified, in contract phase.
Test/Evaluate Performance of sub-systems in EV units, Q2 2017, Complete.
Complete Initial Formative Human Factors studies, q@ 2017, Complete.
Initiate design changes based on the last two items above, Q2 2017, Initiated on schedule; design changes in progress.
Complete and verify system design
architecture, including performance testing in
laboratory environment and design of
surgeon simulation training modules
- Implement design changes and retest
system and subsystems
- Update Design History File and
documentation for relevant modules of
Company Quality Management
Systems (“QMS”)
- Complete initial requirements and
architecture for surgeon simulation
software and training program design,
as required in preparation for FDA
submittal Q3 2017.
Verify system performance in pre-clinical
(live animal labs, swine), while establishing
clear regulatory pathways for US and Europe
- Complete and report on pre-clinical
live animal (swine) studies at strategic
facilities in US and Europe
- Confirm FDA and CE Mark pathways
in coordination with regulatory
authorities Q4 2017.
Complete software development, system
design and update Design History File for
regulatory filing applications Q1 2018.
Verify production system operation with
clinical experts under rigorous formal
(summative) human factors evaluation under
simulated robotic manipulation exercises, and
exercise completed surgeon simulation
software and training program Q2 2018.
Complete and document pre-clinical live
animal (swine) surgery studies that are representative of anticipated human surgeries for FDA submittal Q3 2018
Prepare and submit 510(k) application to
FDA and prepare technical file for CE Mark
and submit to European Notified Body Q4 2018
Anticipated receipt of FDA 510(k) clearance
and CE Mark H1 2019
The SEDAR filing also has cost estimates for most of these items.
Post 56112 from ST has link.
Maybe preposterous, but possibly the third best decision you made in your life... assuming you are passionate about flamenco guitar and are married - career and spouse are two decisions that trump just about everything else in life!
Lately my passion has been picking up as much of this stock as a lowly contractor with two kids in college can pick up. At this price, definitely not THAT preposterous!
It's Forbes, so I would have thought they should know that TRXC is already in the marketplace. Kind of a big oversight in an article which claims ISRG has NO competitors at the moment. I would hardly call TRXC a threat, but they have sold a couple units so they are indeed competing.
And we are all looking forward to the day we multiply that value!
Another way to look at what it SHOULD be is to look at how much this development has cost to date. They started SPORT development in 2012, so for example, 5 years in with a burn rate of what, maybe $60M/year on average? That's $300M into SPORT, plus some carry-over from Amadeus development like a couple patents, maybe another $100M-ish. So (VERY loose ballpark figures I'm throwing out here) SPORT has cost maybe $400M to date, and the value of that investment should reflect some appreciation (companies wouldn't intentionally develop products for break-even scenarios)- How is 25% of a nice ballpark figure for generating value from the development process? Probably should be more like 50 to 75% but just playing conservatively at the moment... That means the program should have a value around $500M (or $700M if we used the 75% figure). With just under 200M shares outstanding (soon to be much more), the value should be about $2.50/share right now (or $3.50/share using 75%). If the number of outstanding shares goes close to 350M, that's still a buck a share.
If anyone wants to do the research and plug in some actual numbers, it could be a fun and interesting experiment! But I guarantee that whatever the real numbers are, it will derive a share value well above 11 cents!
Those scenarios certainly do exist hypothetically!
I think the only real driving force behind split ratio selection is to ensure the end PPS is sufficient for the uplisting with a bit of a buffer to cover any price fluctuations. I don't have any specific preference for a higher or lower ratio because the math will still work out the same; I will own a certain percentage of the market cap value.
The game here will be minimizing dilution, which cuts our percentages down. I wish I could personally do something about that. I do wonder if they could have priced the offering a couple cents higher; two cents more per share would mean 18% less dilution to raise the same funds, and we were around .16 or so when the announcement came out. It could have possibly served to stabilize the PPS around .13 instead of around .11 for the near term. But then again, I also did take advantage of this buy opportunity; I got more at .1122 so I can't complain. And management may have needed to pick a price which assures they successfully raise the money they need. Must have been yet another tough decision!
I'm thinking the RS shouldn't happen too soon. I think they need to get the PPS up first, based on a few more milestone announcements and maybe a bit more press. The closer they get to the finish line, the more press they should attract, and hopefully the PPS will respond accordingly. If the purpose of the RS is for the uplisting, there is no point in doing it at this suppressed price level. Just my opinion, of course.
That is true, but since those shares are each worth 30 times the pre-RS price, they would need to issue 1/30th as many in order to raise the same needed funding. Dilution would still be based on the same percentage of market cap.
And a drop in price can happen with or without the RS (as we have seen!).
Everyone knows about the RS. It is inherently factored in, given the timing of the fundraising and price point for it. At a 30:1 voter approved RS, they are saying our value is at least $3.30 per share post RS when the starter's gun fires for this race. That's when the race starts, and the race is to see who can get the most shares as it runs. I'm getting all I can.
If the RS is a year away, that give me a year to accumulate at these ridiculously low levels. I am happy. The more shares I can acquire, the happier I will be.
Honestly, I had a good week, with less needless fretting and despair and worry over things that aren't real or at least not fact-based. The PPS was handcuffed by the offering so it couldn't possibly have risen substantially, so that metric isn't valid. But we have had a few new names participating this week, so if this message board is more inviting to the general public, so is the company and hopefully by extension, its stock. Lots of people buying on the open market, myself included. Would that many people be jumping in or expanding their position if we spent the week complaining? Impossible to tell for sure, but I would claim the experiment was at least successful enough to merit continuation.
I hadn't seen this before... it is about 2 months old. The chain of messages tends to focus on the past team, like so many do... but one particular post seemed to be thoughtfully written about his view of the SPORT system.
From:
https://www.medtechy.com/boards/companies/titan-medical/154
"I had the chance to see Titan Medical's SPORT robot in person at the World Gynecology Robotics conference in New York this weekend, and I wanted to share what I saw to answer some of the questions that have been posted here over the past months.
It was definitely strange seeing the Davinci system and a potential competitor sitting just tens of feet from one another. SPORT is surprisingly polished, which suggests that it is closer to being done than one might think. In my opinion, its movement and functionality suggest that it might be more of a competitor with general laparoscopy than with Davinci.
The patient cart is on a movable boom that could be side or center docked with the patient. Although they didn't move the boom during the demos, it looks like it has the freedom of movement to be repositioned to different ports without moving the base or repositioning the patient.
SPORT's surgical instruments are the real game changer in my opinion. It was frankly an amazing experience to lean over and watch these, thin, high tech snake arms deftly flex in every which direction. The combined camera and arms could fit inside of a venti coffee cup when fully extended. Each snake arm has an interchangeable tool at the distal wrist, and it looks like they already have your basic surgeon's toolkit available (grasper, scissors, monopolar energy, etc). The arms are long enough to be able to reach areas that are difficult to access laparoscopically.
The 3D vision system is crystal clear, and is mounted on on a movable arm that expands out from the insertion tube. It looked like they're using a stock 32" 3D display with passive glasses as a display, which is definitely a departure from the way the Davinci works. In my opinion, operating by looking at the freestanding display combines the best of conventional laparoscopy with the depth-of-field that is typical of the current robotic systems. It was actually kind of funny...as I stood behind the operator that was sitting at the surgeon console, the 3D effect made it look as if one of the snake arms was going to reach right through his head and touch me. Since the displays use passive and not active glasses, everyone in the OR can wear a pair of cheap glasses and have the same depth-of-field as the surgeon.
Without the opportunity to go hands on with the system, it is difficult to discern more detail. But, from what I saw, I think that their SPORT system is going to be very relevant in the OR when it gets approved. If they can deliver SPORT at the price that they've promised, it could enable more cases that are traditionally done straight stick to move over to robotic and benefit from the better visualization, flexibility, and ergonomics of this platform.
(Two points: I do own a small amount of Titan stock, and also I didn't get a hands demo, so my remarks are based on just seeing their prepared demo)"
I bet cherry-lime mixes well with vodka. Bring some to the Vegas party!
You may be right... The announcements we are waiting for are Initial Design Freeze and announcement of the three sites. As a bonus, a published verification of Dr. Patel's participation on the SAB would be nice too. But for some unknown reason, good news doesn't always have the expected impact on PPS for this stock. That doesn't mean it isn't good news when it happens! Each is still one step closer to the goal line.
And one day closer to the end of Q2 2017! We need an announcement or two next week!
Great time to keep averaging down if possible! I'm at 337,500 at .469 average.
I got 11,500 more shares today. Not bad for a couple cans of coins and a small cash stash. Now I have none of that left... But it will eventually prove to have been worth it!
I'm guessing the K was not meant and that he probably bought 18,700 shares. Otherwise, he just bought 10% of the company!
From the offering, with warrants?
Are penny traders traditionally more shorts than longs?
Nice article, Jet! Thank you!
Do we know what type of readership this particular article will attract? Is this a prominent site with high-dollar investors who may see the light and dive in? Almost any publicity is beneficial these days... I would have liked to see the article make a brief mention of the new management team, in case readers are familiar with last year's debacle and don't know that this is no longer THAT company.
My target is 10K shares for today, or soon... Bid is back down to .107 last check so who knows.
The BOD met something like 29 times last year of I recall correctly. It can't all be a walk in the park, and with everything they have going on and as aggressive as the schedule is, I'm sure they all leave the meeting with some sort of a to-do list. I think these guys are really working.
I might wait for another .11 opportunity; that would get my Scottrade holdings averaged down to .32 a share. But if it starts to run away, I'll have to jump in higher.
My real goal was sub .12 but under .11 would have obviously been better. It's still not a done deal though. Bid is back down to .127 and market makers still will have their way with this stock for a while, plus I wouldn't expect a significant rise until the offering closes. I'll have cash in the Scottrade account waiting for the right time.
My fault! I have two large cans of change, mostly quarters, in my car. At lunchtime I am going to the bank to cash them in and add my last little stash of cash to it. Was hoping to grab another 10K shares in the 11's.
Looks like it won't be 10K shares now! Maybe I'll have to wait and see if .13+ PPS sticks or not.
Adrock, I assume you are talking about the BOD investment at 500K to 1M... I would like to see that also as a good show of faith. If they go in at 10K each, that's not much more than pocket change to those guys. I agree with you that they need to put some real skin in the game to show true confidence.
That said, if the outsiders buying this offering are wanting as much as possible, I could understand if they scale back their quantities to appease the big buyers.
Oooh Lookie! Someone is capable of first grade math! 11-10=1. Yay! I won't bother to tell you where to stick your gold star.
Don't forget we will also have announcement of testing sites coming soon too.
I'm guessing not much, at least until the offering is filled. That gives me a chance to cash in my change!
Check under the seats! I drop Titan shares down there all the time by accident.
The shares of Titan won't stick to your teeth, but they won't freshen anyone's breath... I assume the pack of gum won't give you anywhere near the same return on your $1.70, so no tax implications with the gum choice either. But I'd still take the Titan shares, given the choice!
I've got a couple large coffee cans full of change, mostly quarters... Tempted to run them to the bank this afternoon and get a check for my Scottrade account! Maybe catch a few more on the cheap... Over 90% of my shares are in IRAs so I wouldn't mind beefing up my pre-retirement position too!
I assume the warrants can be exercised any time in the next five years? If so, are there advantages (maybe on the tax side) to exercising them early (when PPS is maybe .50) as opposed to waiting out the 5 years and buying a $10 share for .15? Just curious as to how that works.
9:30 Central, I assume? I'm about as Eastern as you can get in the US.
Scottrade says still on Hold (10:21AM).
We have our insider purchases, about the only valid complaint we've had with this team so far. Well, a little more communication would be nice too. Still waiting for the AGM video to be posted.
Was there an inside leak on pricing driving the PPS down yesterday and this morning?