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I actually enjoyed our aggressive banter, but it makes the IH administrators nervous. Your points are well taken, and I certainly respect your factual warnings about this very important NAV issue with GAZ. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your perspective, highly speculative investments frequently follow an irrational path - up or down. I have little doubt you're sincere in presenting the facts about GAZ, but the NAV issue has been known for some time, and GAZ has still performed well over the last few months. Honestly, I'm as mystified as you, but the uptrend is a fact as much as any other, and while I acknowledge it may crash and burn at any moment, I can't help wondering why GAZ holds up in the face of such well known negative information. Perhaps it is nothing more than investor gullibility, but I'm not ready to accept that as a full and complete explanation at this point.
I don't think it is appropriate or useful to discuss actual positions on a public message board, but I will consider sending you a private message.
I thought it would be good to note the GENERAL downturn in the markets today, just in case someone got the impression the decline was limited to GAZ. Nothing more; nothing less.
Since you can believe everything you read on internet message boards and all poster's motives are exactly what they are purported to be, there is little doubt what the average investor should do with respect to GAZ. (LOL)
Fair and balanced response.
Stocks tumble on global growth worries
http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/20/markets/stocks/?source=cnn_bin
Knowing my investing expertise, I would probably buy it at $250, sell at $100, and try to make up the difference on volume.(LOL)
Thanks for your help. I always appreciate free advice and usually find it's well worth the price. (just kidding, I'm enjoying the debate, and I would never ignore any verifiable facts)
(1) "explain to us what is an NAV"
Answer: Definition of 'Net Asset Value - NAV'
A mutual fund's price per share or exchange-traded fund's (ETF) per-share value. In both cases, the per-share dollar amount of the fund is calculated by dividing the total value of all the securities in its portfolio, less any liabilities, by the number of fund shares outstanding.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nav.asp#axzz1pf1FpuCp
(2)"why should GAZ trade 150% above it"
Answer: Not sure, but possibly because of the following:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46403675
(3) "simple question"
Answer: No.
How competent was the SEC with respect to the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme you previously referenced? Additionally, are they really investigating GAZ or is it a broad, and perhaps politically motivated, investigation of speculation in the natural gas industry? Maybe you could provide a link to the specifics for us less enlightened investors.
I'm sure you're always right about everything you think and do. Thanks for your input.
Sorry, I still don't buy it. You are obviously in full possession of the facts about GAZ and, while you can certainly make the argument it is overpriced, you present no evidence for fraud. Without a doubt, GAZ investors may be guilty of naivete, but if naivete is the sole determinate for Ponzi fraud, then virtually all stock market investments are Ponzi schemes as some point in the timeline.
Record profits and NO DEBT! Will someone please tell me why AZK is not an undiscovered gold nugget?
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/03/19/a-gold-miner-thats-looking-very-undervalued/
It's your contention that the "scam" is easy to spot which, to me, argues against a pure Ponzi scheme. Of course, all Ponzi schemes do have one thing in common; that being, they seem "too good to be true" and, in the end, they turn out not to be true. GAZ, as currently trading, may, or may not, be too good to be true, but the fund doesn't seem to be trying to hide the discrepancy between the underlying asset value and the price of the fund shares. After all, you're in full possession of that disturbing reality, and while you may be right about the eventual outcome of such a disparity, the argument that it is a Ponzi scheme is diminished by the seemingly unrestricted access to the facts. Consequently, I'm not sure I can buy your argument that all the current enthusiasm is based on nothing more than investor gullibility, but I certainly acknowledge the accuracy of your GAZ statistics.
Here is a bit of free sentiment on UNG - via the link below. Perhaps, you can weigh in on the apparent lack of enthusiasm compared to GAZ, and please don't jump to the conclusion that I am promoting GAZ. I'm honestly interested in the enthusiasm driving GAZ versus the lack of comparable sentiment for the more reasonably priced UNG. In this age of virtually unlimited access to the "facts" via the internet, one has to wonder why more investors haven't come around to your value based view of this "obviously" overpriced investment. What gives? Enquiring minds want to know!
http://www.thestreet.com/quote/UNG/details/analyst-ratings.html
If you, or others, are interested in subscribing to a particular proprietary service, I will send (via private message) the link to the subscription page of one such analyst. Of course, this particular analyst could be wrong, and YOU could be right - I'm just asking questions here. A second proprietary opinion on GAZ is available to account holders at TD Ameritrade under the "Research and Ideas" tab for GAZ. (Additionally, two opinions on UNG are available under "Research and Ideas" for account holders at TD Ameritrade)
I understand what you're saying, but most of the analysts I have personally consulted are advising against UNG, and, at least some of them, are recommending GAZ. I will admit UNG seems to make more sense at first look, but I suspect there must be something which is not so obvious to the casual or untrained observer. In any case, I will review what I have seen from certain analysts and post any interesting findings.
Your concern is well taken and may be valid, but it doesn't seem to be shared by everyone, including several well respected analysts. It seems the potential, represented by the underlying assets, outweighs the sheer numbers here, and I personally think the current speculation concerning a bright future for natural gas will ultimately be proven correct. In any case we are obviously in for a wild ride over the coming weeks and months, as evidenced by today's two "circuit breaker" halts.
Looks like someone may have reversed the zero and the 7 on this 316 share order at .70, but if this holds, I may cough up the $250 to get the "restricted" legend off those 1000 cursed shares from 2006.
Will someone please send management a set of short, "senior friendly", easily understandable, instructions on how to set up calendar "reminders" on GMail or any of the numerous other free, web-based, personal productivity software tools. I'm just sayin'.
Notification that Quarterly Report will be submitted late (NT 10-Q)
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=51662419
I suppose the sell off is related to the projection of lower production this year (excerpted below). I think this is probably just a a matter of being conservative in their forecast, but even if production does drop, I doubt that will matter very much if gold goes up exponentially - which I believe is a distinct possibility. Call me crazy but I bought more at 4.45.
The company expects output at its only producing project, Casa Berardi, to fall to between 155,000 ounces and 160,000 ounces of gold this year from 163,845 ounces last year.
Praise from normally Walmart averse Motley Fool
This Isn't Wal-Mart's Worst Idea Ever
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/15/this-isnt-wal-marts-worst-idea-ever.aspx
Fourth quarter 2011 highlights
-- Record revenues of $85.7 million.
-- Record net profits of $21.8 million, or $0.13 per share.
-- Record cash flow from operating activities of $49 million.
-- Total cash costs of US$498 per ounce(1).
-- Gold production of 45,995 ounces.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aurizon-reports-2011-financial-results-2012-03-15
Stealth Cutting edge?
Wal-Mart’s disc-to-digital service ‘could prove totally disruptive’
Yet near term, we anticipate the market to ignore this move, because well you know, its WMT, that dinosaur of retailing with only about US$450 billion of revenue. What could they really know, or how impactful can they really be?
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/14/wal-marts-disc-to-digital-service-could-prove-totally-disruptive/
Beware the MBW (Monarch Bay Way)
http://monarchbayassociates.com/investment-banking.htm
http://monarchbayassociates.com/sales-and-trading.htm
If we issue shares of preferred stock, your investment could be diluted or subordinated to the rights of the holders of preferred stock.
Our Board of Directors is authorized by our Articles of Incorporation to establish classes or series of preferred stock and fix the designation, powers, preferences and rights of the shares of each such class or series without any further vote or action by our stockholders. Any shares of preferred stock so issued could have priority over our common stock with respect to dividend or liquidation rights. Although
20
we have no plans to issue any shares of preferred stock or to adopt any new series, preferences or other classification of preferred stock, any such action by our Board of Directors or issuance of preferred stock by us could dilute your investment in our common stock and warrants or subordinate your holdings to the shares of preferred stock.
Apparently, they were made "an offer they COULDN'T refuse." Thank you, Don Papademos.
Sincerely,
TBT
Greek Debt Swap at 95% After Bondholders Forced to Join
Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history after cajoling private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt, opening the way for a second rescue package.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greece-debt-swap-tops-95-level-to-trigger-forced-bondholder-participation.html
Wal-Mart Seeks $5 Billion U.S. Sales Gain From Fuller Inventory Levels
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-08/wal-mart-seeks-5-billion-sales-gain-by-keeping-shelves-more-fully-stocked.html
Interesting perspective on the prospect for quick clinical trials testing bexarotene in the treatment of Alzheimer's.
What does Alzheimer’s breakthrough mean for you
http://www.clevelandjewishnews.com/special_sections/health_beat/article_4cc68368-692d-11e1-9bb5-001871e3ce6c.html
Walmart International News
South Africa Appeal Court Dismisses Case Against Wal-Mart’s Massmart Deal
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/south-africa-appeal-court-dismisses-case-against-wal-mart-s-massmart-deal.html
Wal-Mart De Mexico February Sales Rise 14.6% From Year Ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120307-716101.html
Sorry, but if you don't already own WMT before the open today, you have missed the April 4th dividend of $0.3975 per share. Better luck next time.
http://www.4-traders.com/WAL-MART-STORES-INC-4841/news/WAL-MART-STORES-INC-Walmart-Increases-Annual-Dividend-14157049/
Sell the news?
Nasdaq rises 1 percent, stocks extend gains
Stocks extended their gains on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 1 percent as Greece moved closer to concluding a bond swap with private creditors that is needed to prevent a messy default
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE81K0CU20120308
Will the smaller bond holders following the big bank lemmings over the cliff? Enquiring (TBT) minds want to know.
60% of Greek Bond Holders Committed to Debt Swap
Greece’s six largest banks, cumulatively the biggest private holders of the country’s debt, plan to accept the offer, the Finance Ministry said March 6. Greek pension funds with about 17 billion euros of bonds will also join, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Real FM Radio yesterday.
More than thirty banks and insurers that were on the private creditor-investor committee for Greece plan to accept the swap, according to an e-mailed statement from the Institute of International Finance yesterday. Those investors hold an aggregate 84 billion euros of bonds, the IIF said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/investors-with-39-of-greek-debt-agree-to-join-in-swap-iif-says.html
This below referenced study from 2008 with positive results, using bexarotene as a treatment for schizophrenia, seems to support a strong argument for fast track approval for Alzheimer's. Such news, along with clarification from Eisai about their business plan for this product, should bring some new attention to ESALY.
Bexarotene as Add-On to Antipsychotic Treatment in Schizophrenia Patients: A Pilot Open-Label Trial
http://journals.lww.com/clinicalneuropharm/Abstract/2008/01000/Bexarotene_as_Add_On_to_Antipsychotic_Treatment_in.4.aspx
Bankruptcy Final; liquidation and distribution process can now begin.
http://www.turnaroundletter.com/blogs/15-bankruptcy-news/post/27018-firstplus-financial-group-plan-effective
The right question can actually provide more insight than most so-called "answers" which, unfortunately, tend to be served up with a bias. (Present company excluded, of course) LOL
These 1/17/2012 insider purchases of Preferred Shares seem a little generous to me, but HEY, that's just me. Is the price .07 per preferred share or .07 per converted common share? ("Enquiring" minds want to know) These stock based incentives must surely warm the hearts of all the MAJOR shareholders. (hint: they tend to be insiders at PAOS) Of course, this has some of the flavor of the MBW, but as many have pointed out, I tend to be a little obsessive with respect to such things.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=0000936446
WE ARE NOT ASKING YOU FOR A PROXY
AND YOU ARE REQUESTED NOT TO SEND US A PROXY
THIS NOTICE IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.
http://filings.issuerdirect.com/data/936446/000112178111000116/paosdef14c5511.htm
We know, we know...... it ain't over til it's over
Is it over?
Greece Debt-Swap Deadline This Week to Show If Europe Moving Past Crisis
“The European crisis is not quite over yet,” Erik Nielsen, chief global economist at UniCredit SpA in London, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. He said enough creditors will probably participate in the writedown to avoid triggering so-called collective action clauses, which could be used by Greece to compel investors to participate and roil markets by triggering credit-default swap insurance contracts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-04/greece-debt-swap-deadline-this-week-to-show-if-europe-moving-past-crisis.html
Anyone understand the significance of this note at the very end of the just filed 10K? With a conversion rate of 1.554 common for each preferred, and lots of converting going on, should this trouble existing shareholders? Just asking.
Conversion of Preferred Stock to Common Stock
During 2011, 517,000 shares of Preferred Stock were converted to 803,418 shares of the Company’s common stock.
I'm sure you're right. DW wouldn't dare pull any MBW tomfoolery here at PAOS, and besides, all those other companies he's been associated with were obviously completely different in every respect. I'm confident as I can be that rank and file (minority) PAOS shareholders have nothing to fear but fear itself. Still, I think I might just hang around here and keep an eye on things, for old times sake - has it really been 4 years? Anyway, it should get interesting now that the volume seems to be picking up a bit. (Never forget, great white sharks can smell one drop of blood in the water up to one mile away)
Sorry, for not being clear, but this eclectic collection of excerpts is illustrative of the Monarch Bay Way (MBW) in my opinion. Admittedly it's my presentation of bits and pieces of a twisted and dark visualization, much like a cryptic pop art collage, leaving the final interpretation of any meaning or significance up to the viewer. In any case, I will likely be adding more depth and clarity as time goes on, and, believe me, there's a virtual treasure trove of materials to work with whenever one comes across some apparently new manifestation of the MBW.