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You make a very good point about partnering.
Clearly, this is a case and point of a small drug development company not having the ability to turn it into a revenue machine. They simply phucked up bigtime - especially managing expectations.
If you look at ipilumamab which BMS bought from Medarex, IPI is going to ramp revenues big, and that's because BMS has hundreds(thousands) of drugs reps ACROSS THE GLOBE who have experience and can push this thing. There is NO WAY Medarex could have done that-NONE.
Berger should be paying careful attention to this. Because, despite his insistence (as well as academics insistence) that Ponatinib is better than all the TKIs, the fact of the matter is all the TKIs have huge distribution, and BIG TIME branding-name abilities. Also, in regard to DNDN, one of the main issues was that it was the ACADEMICS who were the main sellers of Provenge (because they had experience with the drug in the clinic and understand the MOA), whereas, generic doctors were less willing to give the drug to patients (be or, reimbursement issues or not). Berger and shareholders of ARIAD should really pay attention to this last point because I think Berger is really relying on what the academics in the field are telling him for his Ponatinib guidance....just my thoughts.
Either way, IMO, you don't really want to own a drug company ONCE it becomes a revenues story. They almost always disappoint - HGSI and DNDN and VRTX(don't know much about this one, but Dew mentioned it) for instance - especially after they have had mega runs which 'pulled forward' years of revenue expectations.
We're down because the USD is having a big rally today due to ECB concerns.
USD up, market down.
I dont know. Congress has no power over the Fed. I think they will signal something...they have to. The economy is going into the dumper again, with congress to blame for part of that.
i think they should repatriate all that overseas cash and give companies that are hoarding their cash overseas a complete break. i dont see why the hell they wouldnt.
Isnt this kind of the same argument against Stimuvax? That it doesnt generate a response in the blood like a true vaccine really should?
redplate says there are reasons for this. i am too stupid to argue against it, but i take his word for it considering he was a scientist at biomira.
Dont worry. QE3 will be starting in 3 weeks or less.
Could be a really ugly day for biotechs across the board tomorrow.
Dendreon is going to pull the entire Index down with it (.BTK-P), and I wouldn't be surprised if lots of biotechs that aren't even in the same periphery as DNDN get hit.
Yup. I don't own it, but I get a sick feeling in my stomach because anyone who invests in biotech has had something like that happen to them before. 50-60-70% is the norm for blowups.
How could any of the banking analysts not have seen this company from DNDN? I haven't seen one single note predicting this. How is that possible?
Prediction: by 11:45 am, at least one class-action lawsuit will be filed against Mitch Gold and the Board Members of Dendreon alleging something or other.
Class-actions are bogus, and the only people who make money off them are the parasite lawyers. Having said that, Mitch Gold really made a lot of enemies on the Street by not preannouncing this a long time ago. Incompetence? Or not trustworthy?
Yes. I hope to be long somewhat then.
Seriously.
I literally haven't bother even looking at the stock, or looking at the Provenge numbers after I sold it 19.50-21.00 way back when (after I bought it below 5.00).
Shame on me for not paying more attention.
DID ANY of the sellside analysts even see this coming? With all the talk about reimbursements and insurance payments, controversies, etc about them, it really seemed like a no brainer to maybe take a shot on the short-side. I don't short, but, on certain occasions you just gotta gamble.
(no balls for me). lol.
I really feel badly for longs. -64% is a disgusting hit and I just don't know if that's warranted. Now....do I have the balls to go long again. That's the question. At some point, it's gotta be worth going long.
Holy crap. I cannot believe the epic pounding DNDN is taking in A/H trading.
Trading at $12ish? Geez. It might be a buy down here. That's incredible.
Shame on me for not seeing this and taking a swing.
(no balls).
man, i didnt even realize they were giving 350 -400 million rev guidance for the year. they wont even come remotely close.
low 20s could be a good call on your part.
Sadly, when you look at things in hindsight like I am doing now, the compelling trade was going "short" into the earnings. I am neither short nor long, but it was fairly obvious that the numbers weren't going to be huge for Provenge.
I swear (and I am sure you will have many examples of how this does not happen all the time) but in a lot of these names that had HUGE runups in the stock PRIOR to getting approval and PRIOR to becoming a fundamental story there is just not much reason to own the stock any longer (after approval and marketing). The market has "pulled forward", 10s of years of revenues into the market-cap of names like DNDN and HGSI. HGSI is brutal, and the chart shows it. What was the revenue number on Benlysta last Q? $8 million?
I wouldn't be surprised to see HGSI close that gap from '09.
DNDN
Q2 revenue $49.6 million versus I/B/E/S view $57.7 million
* Says withdrawing its previous guidance of $350-400 million in revenue for 2011
* Says expects to reduce expenses, including workforce reductions
(doesn't really sound too positive, but these are just headlines)
I think its overdone. I think a lot of this has to do with the scumbags at S&P holding a downgrade over everyones head - which is laughable because all of a sudden these guys have to be "diligent" when it comes to sovereign debt (because it's not corporate, meaning, they're not being paid off).
I'm not establishing any NEW positions in anything. I will trade the volatility if I can see good entry points (like this a.m. in Ariad). Averaging into some real pieces of shit that I have. But not going to establish another core position until there is some better read on this god awful economy and stock market. This market could just keep dripping lower and lower and lower until something miraculous happens.
in and out today
I don't know what "form" it will be in, rates are already at extreme lows. Have any ideas what another QE would look like ?
QE3
I don't really care whether QE2 "worked" or not, but it made the stock market go higher, and that is all I care about since I am long only equities.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hilsenrath-feds-kohn-says-will-give-very-serious-consideration-qe3
Geez. That's a good question.
Give me some time to think about it.
What amazes me is that they still get the business.
bot small @ 10
Wow. He bought 500 million shares at $250,000 value. lol.
He's wrong as usual. Trying to use some software program that trys telling buyside versus sellside flow is ridiculous
You think it only retail selling that's driving it down?
It looks to me like they are saying ARIA should be valued at 17.00 bu they are discounting the value to 14.00 based on dilution risk.
They have Pona at 15.00, Rida as 1.00, and cash as 1.00.
Whatever. Nincompoops.
That can't be good for Alnylam (at least, from a standpoint as to the viability of their business).
Amazing how times have changed. RNA-i was the darling a few years back.
I think todays selloff was a little ridiculous. They're dumping everything. Maybe tomorrow a.m. gets ugly and there's a rapid turnaround by 10:30 am.
what's really changed since two weeks ago? Not much. I really believe this S&P downgrade talk is seriously causing people to dump equities.
I have various moving averages in ARIA that I am looking at: WMA 200 at 8.71 on the daily. On the weekly, I have the EMA 20 week at 9.83 which is strong and has signaled a medium term low on two major occasions and it's trending there. To be honest, I really hope it doesnt get there because that will mean that market sucks ass and I am still invested quite a bit in equities (just not ariad). I would rather miss buying Ariad cheap, than see the market go to crap.
I think Sanofi-Aventis is having their drug reps take Silenor off the shelves which is why sales are so low, which is making the stock go lower so they can take over the company because they know its a better drug than Ambien.
:o)
You're dealing with the product of what the gutless scumbags in Washington have been doing for the past several months. They have cost perhaps a point of GDP in the second half because of their tireless garbage. The ONLY thing that is going to save this market right now is some miraculous report out of the blue showing good employment on Friday. Either that, or Bernake better pull a rabbit out of his ass in Jackson Hole later this month and announce he's going to be purchasing more assets on the longer end of the curve eg QE3, (even though, they're near record lows right now because of everyone pulling out of the equity markets in fears of a double dip recession).
If they are selling the market in fears because they think S&P is going to downgrade, then that is a big joke. Because, a downgrade to AA+ isn't really affecting the treasury market right now with the 30 year basically under 4.0%. Take a look at the other AAA rated countries. Is China going to buy all of their debt?? Give me a break. A downgrade doesn't matter, it's just scare tactic BS and its working.
I expect another big gap and crap once S&P announces they are NOT downgrading (give me a break..the USA will always pay their bills and they have the means to do it...this isn't Greece..there is a ZERO % chance of that happening and this won't even be questionned again until 2013). If they do downgrade, the US should immediately subpoena and arrest every single one of those people at S&P for what they did to the global markets in the 2000's with their awful ratings.
For me, I am a buying of ARIA at around 9 (not saying its going to get there). IMO, this thing should find support around 9.85'ish.
No. False.
They didn't burn 47 million. Most of that was non-cash related...only accounting losses.
BTW, do you know that the SOC for pancreatic cancer is?
Reason I ask is because I am hearing rumors floating around about some of the trials that INFI and CRIS have going on in combination studies with Gem and other chemos with the Hedgehog (rationale is the Hh drug is creating 'swiss cheese' holes in the tough stromal cells surrounding the cancer allowing highly effective drug delivery of the chemo etc).
Thanks.
Still waiting for the name of Ridaforolimus. Not that it means much, I am just interested.
If you think you're having a bad day here, just be happy you're not a shareholder of INSM.
"Thanks (lax) for adding some appreciated common sense to this board.."