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Fed. 1day RP + 14.25B [net add +10.25B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Happy New Year To One and All /
Happy New Year To One and All. /
W@G2 QQQQ 01/02/08 for a 01/04/08 close
53.00 dr_sean
52.00 bob3 ( Happy New Year To One and All
50.58 frenchee Happy New Year folks!
Explaination of how the Fed. works:
The Year In Review And a Look Ahead for 2008
Edit, long read but worth your time...
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Use this link splains it all:
http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/speed_bumps
Fed.1)2) 4day RP + 13.50 [Net Giveth +15.00B
Fed. 2) 2day RP + 4.00B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Fed.1)2) 4day RP + 13.50 [Net Giveth +15.00B
Fed. 2) 2day RP + 4.00B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
GOLD BULLION - A BELATED CHRISTMAS GIFT
Dr Prieur du Plessis
I am spending a few days of the Christmas break at a village along the coastline of the Cape Town Peninsula. It is quaint, picturesque and simply an ideal location for enjoying quality time with the family. The only drawback is that it does become quite windy on occasion - at best not a highly predictable event. This reminds me of the erratic behavior of gold bullion - you just never know with what action the yellow metal is going to surprise you next, making it infamously difficult to predict short-term movements.
And true to form, just as traders were bargaining on a quiet Christmas period, gold again startled with a $15 jump, taking the price well clear of the $800-level. Interestingly, gold has never in its history recorded a month-end price above $800 and only closed above this level on two days during its 1980 surge, namely: $830 on January 18, 1980, and $850 on January 21, 1980. That, however, represented a blow-off with the price plunging to $737.50 a day later and falling further to $659 by the end of January.
It would seem that gold bulls may very well have reason next week to toast bullion saying good-bye to 2007 having achieved the $800 month-end milestone. There is, however, quite an important difference between 1980 and the present situation. In 1980 gold was in a parabolic rise, whereas since the low of $250 in 2001 gold has been rising methodically, mapping out consistently higher lows as shown below.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/duplessis122907.html
GOLD BULLION - A BELATED CHRISTMAS GIFT
Dr Prieur du Plessis
I am spending a few days of the Christmas break at a village along the coastline of the Cape Town Peninsula. It is quaint, picturesque and simply an ideal location for enjoying quality time with the family. The only drawback is that it does become quite windy on occasion - at best not a highly predictable event. This reminds me of the erratic behavior of gold bullion - you just never know with what action the yellow metal is going to surprise you next, making it infamously difficult to predict short-term movements.
And true to form, just as traders were bargaining on a quiet Christmas period, gold again startled with a $15 jump, taking the price well clear of the $800-level. Interestingly, gold has never in its history recorded a month-end price above $800 and only closed above this level on two days during its 1980 surge, namely: $830 on January 18, 1980, and $850 on January 21, 1980. That, however, represented a blow-off with the price plunging to $737.50 a day later and falling further to $659 by the end of January.
It would seem that gold bulls may very well have reason next week to toast bullion saying good-bye to 2007 having achieved the $800 month-end milestone. There is, however, quite an important difference between 1980 and the present situation. In 1980 gold was in a parabolic rise, whereas since the low of $250 in 2001 gold has been rising methodically, mapping out consistently higher lows as shown below.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/duplessis122907.html
Larger contract size set for gold futures trading
Adjust font size:
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE), one of China's major futures trading venues, will start gold futures trading on Jan. 9, the exchange said on Saturday. But the contract size will be larger than originally expected in order to discourage individual investors.
The contract size will be set at 1,000 grams. In an inquiry that the SFE distributed earlier this month, the contract size was listed at 300 gm.
An official with the SFE said the contract size was decided based on surveys. It is large enough to discourage those individual investors who lacked the ability to take risks, while also being useful to institutions.
"We started gold futures trading to provide channels for gold producers and individual investors to hedge against price fluctuations," said the official.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Friday that it had approved the gold futures.
The launch of gold futures would add to the hedging options for gold producers against the fluctuating global market, analysts said.
Gold prices climbed almost 11 U.S. dollars an ounce, boosted by strong oil prices, weak U.S. economic data and political concerns following Thursday's assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.
An ounce of gold for February delivery added 10.90 U.S. dollars to settle at 842.70 U.S. dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The SFE has said it would impose strict risk controls on gold futures. It would set a minimum margin requirement of 7 percent of the contract value and a daily price movement band, probably within the range of plus or minus 5 percent of the previous settlement prices.
Gold was the second new futures product to be introduced in China this year. The first was zinc, which launched trading in March.
Last year, China produced a record 240 tons of gold, up 7.15 percent year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, it produced 191.456 tons of gold, up 13.1 percent from the same period last year.
(Xinhua News Agency December 30, 2007)
http://www.kitco.com/
Larger contract size set for gold futures trading
Adjust font size:
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE), one of China's major futures trading venues, will start gold futures trading on Jan. 9, the exchange said on Saturday. But the contract size will be larger than originally expected in order to discourage individual investors.
The contract size will be set at 1,000 grams. In an inquiry that the SFE distributed earlier this month, the contract size was listed at 300 gm.
An official with the SFE said the contract size was decided based on surveys. It is large enough to discourage those individual investors who lacked the ability to take risks, while also being useful to institutions.
"We started gold futures trading to provide channels for gold producers and individual investors to hedge against price fluctuations," said the official.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Friday that it had approved the gold futures.
The launch of gold futures would add to the hedging options for gold producers against the fluctuating global market, analysts said.
Gold prices climbed almost 11 U.S. dollars an ounce, boosted by strong oil prices, weak U.S. economic data and political concerns following Thursday's assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.
An ounce of gold for February delivery added 10.90 U.S. dollars to settle at 842.70 U.S. dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The SFE has said it would impose strict risk controls on gold futures. It would set a minimum margin requirement of 7 percent of the contract value and a daily price movement band, probably within the range of plus or minus 5 percent of the previous settlement prices.
Gold was the second new futures product to be introduced in China this year. The first was zinc, which launched trading in March.
Last year, China produced a record 240 tons of gold, up 7.15 percent year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, it produced 191.456 tons of gold, up 13.1 percent from the same period last year.
(Xinhua News Agency December 30, 2007)
http://www.kitco.com/
Your First Move For Monday Dec. 31st
Posted By:Lee Brodie
Topics:Stock Market | Stock Picks
Companies:Big Lots Inc | Deere & Co | Caterpillar Inc
Here’s our Fast Money final trade. Our gang gives you tomorrow’s best trade, right now!
Pete Najarian likes Caterpillar Caterpillar IncCAT
73.16 0.43 +0.59% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[CAT 73.16 0.43 (+0.59%) ].
Karen Finerman says short Big Lots Big Lots IncBIG
15.77 0.03 +0.19% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[BIG 15.77 0.03 (+0.19%) ].
Guy Adami recommends Deere & Co Deere & CoDE
92.28 1.91 +2.11% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[DE 92.28 1.91 (+2.11%) ].
Jeff Macke doesn't have a stock pick, sorry.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22423036
Gartman's Outlook '08
Posted By: Lee Brodie
Thursday, 27 Dec 2007
Where’s the fast money in commodities next year? Find out from one of the Street’s most esteemed investors. Strategic investor Dennis Gartman joins the panel for this conversation. Following is a summary of his main points.
What happened in the markets, Thursday?
It’s late in the year and I think anyone who made money was taking it off the table says Gartman. Also the assassination added a real geo-political concern.
What’s your position in gold?
I’ve been bullish of gold for several years, Gartman replies, and I continue to be bullish. It’s the currency to which money flows to in periods of concern and we’re in a period of concern.
But gold prices are astronomical?
I think we may well have prices at $1,000 in a year or two, Gartman says. Are we going to get there in 6 months? I doubt it. But gold’s trend has been clearly upward. Gold is the currency of choice and I see no reason why that should change.
How about oil?
I really have no position in crude, Gartman says. If I had to take (a position) I’d rather be a buyer than a seller but you’d have to hold a gun to my head to make me take a position.
What’s your outlook for soybeans and wheat?
The grains markets have been very strong for the past year and a half, Gartman says. Now, with the government telling us that we need to use a huge amount of corn for ethanol the trend is very likely, upward.
Favorite stock?
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT}. It is fertilizer play because everyone involved in agriculture needs fertilizer. The stock just keeps making new highs. We sold shares into Thursday’s strength, but if it comes down $10-$15 dollars I’d be a buyer again. In a world that needs more grain, farmers will need more fertilizer and I think Potash is a good place to get it.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22412449
TakAspare:Global tyre shortage threatens to stop mining industry in its tracks
By Danny Fortson, Business Correspondent
Published: 24 December 2007
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3280478.ece
Times have never been better for the mining industry. Driven by insatiable demand from an industrialising China, the industry is awash in unprecedented billions. Yet the flip side of the boom is that every nook and cranny of the infrastructure, after years of under-investment, is groaning under the strain of the round-the-clock race to dig up everything from iron ore to coal to gold and diamonds destined for ports around the world.
Perhaps nowhere is this strain more acute than in one of the most mundane yet crucial components that keeps the global mining machine rolling: tyres. It may seem a minor detail, but these are no normal tyres. Reaching up to 13ft high and weighing more than five tons each, they are quite literally what keeps the global mining machine rolling. Without them, the house-size dump trucks that cart out loads from the depths of the world's biggest mines in Chile or Western Australia remain idle, costing millions of dollars in lost revenue.
Japan's Bridgestone, the biggest provider of the "super-giant" tyres, warned this year that the shortage would last until 2012, a view echoed by Michelin, the No 2 supplier. So acute is the shortage that tyres that two years ago cost $30,000 (£15,000) have increased by as much as three times.
"With a current worldwide shortage of large mining machinery tyres, world haul truck tyres can exceed $90,000," said Anthony Kocken, manager of Xstrata's Black Star Open Cut mine in Australia. It is not uncommon for new dump trucks to be delivered to a site without tyres, sitting idle for weeks or months until its wheels arrive.
That has led to a raft of quirky and innovative ways to head off the shortage. Mr Kocken has instituted an optimisation programme in which its drivers are given "tyre awareness sessions". Rio Tinto opened a retreading centre last year to extend the life of spent tyres, while so-called "mummy shifts" have surged at other companies that have found that the tyres on the trucks driven by women last significantly longer. With most lasting no more than six months, squeezing another month out of the tyres is significant.
Yet the shortage is just one part of a much larger squeeze which has sent operating costs soaring throughout the mining sector. In a recent Goldman Sachs note revising up it target prices for a whole range of commodities, the bank said: "Evidence has been mounting that the supply side is struggling to keep pace with accelerated demand growth... The incentive to operate at above design capacity is high, but the ability to do so is unsustainable, and the incidence of companies failing to meet their production targets is high."
The cost of explosives, for example, has rocketed amid a similar squeeze, while at ports freighters are having to line up single file to take on fresh loads.
The shortages have taken on even greater significance in the context of the merger mania which has taken hold in recent months. Just weeks after BHP Billiton, the world's biggest miner, laun-ched an offer for Rio Tinto, Xstrata put itself up for sale. Anglo American and Brazil's Vale are seen as the most likely bidders. The leanest, most efficient companies with the highest margins are likely to emerge triumphant from the merger scrum, or at least be able to secure a higher price.
The rising costs, however, have been outstripped by the near record current prices across a whole range of commodities. Morry Taylor, the head of Titan International, a US tyre manufacturer, explained: "In [Canada's] tar sands, with oil at $80 per barrel, a $3m dump truck pays for itself in 30 days."
Courtesy.... LoneClone
Global broadband speed test:
http://www.speedtest.net/index.php
Global broadband speed test:
http://www.speedtest.net/index.php
Colombia lays claim to huge gold deposit
December 28, 2007
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fSetId=265&fArticleId=4187042
Bogota, Colombia - Colombian authorities have announced a major gold find that would double the country's production of the metal by 2011 and which they claim could prove to be one of the 10 biggest deposits in the world.
A foreign mining company uncovered the deposit and informed the government, which announced the discovery last week but said details would not be released until February.
But President Alvaro Uribe appeared unable to hide his excitement last week.
"How am I going to keep a secret this big until February?" Uribe asked in a December 20 speech, revealing that Mining and Energy Minister Hernan Martinez had that morning told him of the discovery, which will require an initial $2 billion investment and will double the nation's gold output by 2011.
Authorities didn't give the name of the foreign mining company, but Bogota's El Tiempo newspaper reported that the deposit is in the central state of Tolima, and was discovered by Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., one of the world's largest gold producers.
EXIT 2007: DENIALS & TONTARIA
Jim Willie CB
December 26, 2007
home: Golden Jackass website
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie122607.html
some excerpts:
BOLDFACED DENIAL WITH YET MORE SPIN
The 2007 year started out reasonably calm, and ended with constant damaging storms in an utter barrage.
The real estate downturn was overblown. A modest correction took place, rendering prices more reasonable, taking the froth off the market, removing the speculators, bringing the system back to normal. What a crock!
The worst is over in financial firm bond loss writedowns, as the bank sector offers huge stock bargains. The stock selloff in bank equities is overblown. What a crock!
The USEconomy has suffered no spillover from the housing crisis and mortgage debacle. Never under-estimate the US consumer. Claims continue to flow in that the economy is resilient, its back is not broken, growth continues, and consumers are hanging in there. What a crock!
A USEconomic recession is not being indicated in the stock market, which is still an efficient market mechanism. The major stock indexes have held firm, withstood corrections and sudden selloffs. What a crock!
Gold is giving the wrong inflation signal, since the Consumer Price Index has yet to show any surge whatsoever. The rise in gold has no basis. What a crock!
CNBC has degraded in 2007 in its integrity, let it be known. The US financial news network has always served as a platform for Wall Street spin, blatant promotion. In 2007, in my view the network slid further down the slope of deception and basic pumping the propaganda.
My Ten Predictions for 2008
by Thomas Tan
December 29, 2007
At the beginning of every year, Byron Wien, a former long time Chief Strategist for Morgan Stanley and now for Pequot, a hedge fund, makes his 10 predictions for that year. His records have been up and down, probably around 5-6 correct picks for good years and only 1-2 for bad years. It seems initially that he doesn't set a very high bar for us to beat since most of them are wrong anyway, but it actually indicates how difficult it is to make correct predictions. 2007 is probably not one of Byron's best. The only one he nailed right on is gold over $800 and the uptrend for some other commodities including oil.
I don't want to be influenced by him and his thinking, as we should be hearing from him shortly after the New Year. Also not to compare myself to him, but just for the fun of doing it, I also decided to make my own 10 predictions for 2008. I will only stick to the financial markets, will not delve into other areas, such as election, foreign relations, or politicians, like Byron. I may or may not trade these trends and any of my opinions is subject to change over time. Here they are:
1. The price of gold will touch 4 digit in USD ($1000) for the 1st time in human history. Gold has entered the 2nd phase of its uptrend, will have more explosive up movement and become more volatile. We should see $50+/- intraday movement in 2008. But this gold bull market has a long way to go beyond 2008.
2. With gold rising, silver and mining stocks represented by HUI will eventually catch up. I expect to see HUI over $600 and sliver over $20 in 2008. Don't give up on them. A turnaround always happens at the time when everyone feels desperate and gives up.
3. After a temporary rebound, USD will continue its downtrend again, as an inverse mirror image of gold. USD will lose another 10% of its value and USD index will touch 70 sometime during 2008.
4. In 2007, we see the burst of mortgage bubble followed by the burst of real estate bubble. We will see the burst of credit card bubble in 2008 (another blow to the credit market), while some consumers have financed their credit card purchases to the hilt and many years into the future. The burst of this long time consumer bubble will dampen any recovery hope of the retail sector and the economy. At the end of the day, the credit card industry is similar to subprime, with new cards of initial tease rate of 0% to people who should not even have a card, then jack the rates to as high as 36%, making subprime rate look paltry.
5. Citigroup will drop to teens (below $20). More bad news to come in the banking industry. Only less than half of the subprime write-downs have announced in 2007, with another half yet to come. OTC derivative market is full of land miners, like steroids in professional baseball, even we don't know the exact implication and situation of each player (bank), we know many of them having problems and will hear more explosive news in 2008. Banks will be stacked with lawsuits, from self-promoting fund returns with the whole purpose of collecting fees and bonuses, to unable to show ownership documents to foreclose homes and face countersuits from disgruntled homeowners. The current moving SIVs to balance sheet will further invite shareholder lawsuits, with the argument that SIV instruments should never have been off their balance sheets to begin with thus false and misleading shareholders, and now putting them back at par further destroying shareholder's equity. The fact that banks are busy bringing in sovereign funds tells us there are much more skeletons in the closet. If this now is the end, banks are able to absorb all the write-downs and would not have asked for sovereign fund injections. The mindset behind sovereign funds investing in US is no different than previously holding all US treasuries in their funds, only this time they "diversify" into more risky US equities. Not only this is too early for bottom picking, likely to suffer 25% loss like their Blackstone investment, but also any future return (if any) will be more than offset by the further falling USD.
6. Inflation will grow high, and agriculture commodities of soybeans, corn and especially wheat continue to rise to new highs. Wheat is a commonly used ingredient for many daily products which actually provides a better gauge of food inflation than any other indicators. Public will start questioning government published CPI number when food, energy bills are growing intolerable high. There will be pressure for government going back to the pre-adjustment CPI methodology used in the 70s and 80s which is 3-4% higher than current published data, so that their TIPs investment could receive more equitable income. There will be talks and fear about real double digit inflation down the road.
7. Energy price will continue to rise. We should finally see oil at 3 digit ($100 and more) and a decent recovery of the natural gas market with inventory level declining. Against popular opinion, higher oil price would neither reduce global demand, nor increase global supply. Alternative energy is more a dream than reality. Oil from tar sands is not only costly, but also faces environment challenges. Biofuel not only drives corn price to sky high, but also reinforces public perception that biofuel takes poor people's basic need for food (corn) away to pay for rich people's gas-guzzling SUVs.
8. S&P market will be at trading range and volatile. Both banking and retail sectors will continue to be under pressure, as discussed earlier. The $1,576 price S&P 500 reached in October 2007 is likely the highest for this ending bull market, we should see more severe correction in 2008. Corporate earnings and profit margins will shrink along with stock prices to make P/E at about the same level as now, a typical valuation trap at the start of a bear market.
9. Fed will try to rescue market from time to time after big crashes by further lowering fed fund rates, likely 3.5% by yearend. As inflation fear grows, long bonds will drop and yield will go higher. 30-year yield will be back above 5%, with short end (Fed rate) at 3.5%, yield curve will become much steeper than now.
10. National real estate market will decline faster in 2008 than 2007, recording double digit loss and we won't see the bottom at least until 2009.
Thomas Z. Tan, CFA, MBA
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9112.htm
thank ya'all guys, hope you beat
me on this one...have a few QQQAZ 52 Jan C.
Real-Time Forex Streamers (2)
http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
Real-Time Forex Streamers (2)
http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
Fed. Ops: 17.50B Matures this week.
Mon: 2.50B 3day
Thu: 10.00B 14day + > 5.00B 6day
Float: 31.50B
=========================================================
Temp Ops:
Perm Ops:
=========================================================
Public Debt:~~ A bit of paying it down..lol
Limit ~ $9,815 T
12/27 ~ $9,124 T
Fed. Ops: 17.50B Matures this week.
Mon: 2.50B 3day
Thu: 10.00B 14day + > 5.00B 6day
Float: 31.50B
=========================================================
Temp Ops:
Perm Ops:
=========================================================
Public Debt:~~ A bit of paying it down..lol
Limit ~ $9,815 T
12/27 ~ $9,124 T
W@G1 QQQQ 12/31/07 for a 01/02/08 close
52.00 bob3
51.86 The Cap'm
thax ray. /
EZ2,
Thanks for your note & wish you & family the best New Year.
chichi2, your intraday calls Perfection!
ur starting to scare me with ability well above average. ty
Fed.1)2) 6day RP + 5.00B [net Drain -2.50B
Fed. 2) 3day RP + 2.50B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Fed.1)2) 6day RP + 5.00B [net Drain -2.50B
Fed. 2) 3day RP + 2.50B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Decoupling could become the story of 2008
The Chinese government backed up its recent words with action, allowing the yuan to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in its tightly controlled foreign-exchange market at the fastest pace since Beijing ended its U.S. dollar “peg” in 2005. The yuan closed Chinese over-the-counter trading at a new high of 7.3175 against the dollar, up 0.37% from Wednesday’s close of 7.3444 — its biggest daily rise ever. Shortly before the close, the yuan hit an intraday high of 7.3131. “It’s a huge move,” said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “I don’t think it’s in response to outside pressure, but rather to help China’s domestic situation and fight inflation.” The yuan’s gains came on the same day that Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, told a forum in Beijing that faster appreciation in the yuan is likely next year to help offset inflationary pressures from a weaker dollar and rising global commodity prices. – Lisa Twaronite, MarketWatch
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
Decoupling could become the story of 2008
The Chinese government backed up its recent words with action, allowing the yuan to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in its tightly controlled foreign-exchange market at the fastest pace since Beijing ended its U.S. dollar “peg” in 2005. The yuan closed Chinese over-the-counter trading at a new high of 7.3175 against the dollar, up 0.37% from Wednesday’s close of 7.3444 — its biggest daily rise ever. Shortly before the close, the yuan hit an intraday high of 7.3131. “It’s a huge move,” said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “I don’t think it’s in response to outside pressure, but rather to help China’s domestic situation and fight inflation.” The yuan’s gains came on the same day that Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, told a forum in Beijing that faster appreciation in the yuan is likely next year to help offset inflationary pressures from a weaker dollar and rising global commodity prices. – Lisa Twaronite, MarketWatch
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
nice work bud
Fed. 2) 1day RP + 10.00B [ net Drain -8.50B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Fed. 2) 1day RP + 10.00B [ net Drain -8.50B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
GG SLW CDE + solar CSUN calls
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Fed. 14day RP + 6.00B [ SoFar
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Fed. 14day RP + 6.00B [ SoFar
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm