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Bigworld,
Just curious as to why the ultra short real estate fund has dropped so dramatically in one year when the real estate market has been obliterated. Regardless of the bullish market trend, the real estate index shouldn't have had the same bullish run based on the poor underlying indicators in real estate. Am I missing something? And now that the reverse split is in play, a 300% rebound in SRS seems unlikely...don't you think? I'm looking for a new vehicle to recoup my major losses in VXX and my casino short positions. I definitely want to be on the bear side for my next large position.
Bigworld,
I had pressed on my short positions to a point that the margin calls were creating a draining cash flow so I opted out. I had a large short position on SPY and got clobbered. I bet against the casinos knowing a few higher ups in Vegas who told me business has been brutal but their Macau business seems to have bailed them out. I was hoping for bad news in China, but none ever came. I may enter some puts tomorrow to minimize further uptick pain but I just had to relieve myself of the damages for the time being. As I mentioned, my retail businesses have been doing very well and that leads me to wonder of true consumer spending and confidence. The public clearly is more value driven but they are spending regardless of the unemployment numbers and inflationary concerns. How long can that last? I didn't think this long, but corporate downsizing and fed stimulus has blind sided shorts creating ever increasing short term quarterly gains and rising share prices. This also cannot last but may carry the S&P to 1250. I needed to be out for those very reasons. If I see the bottom coming out of the market, I will get back in aggressively. If you see an indicator, as I am a property manager and retail owner and not a technical guru, feel free to give me a heads up. I too believe in the house of cards theory and that the current state of the economy is a false and purely government stimulated support system, but how long can the Washington lackies keep the game going? Every time I think they are done meddling they come up with a new short term fix. I've been kicked in the nuts and need to take a breather. Don't be a stranger if you see the legs begin to wobble. I'd like to hear your viewpoints. If not on this board then maybe another. Thanks. F4T
Bigworld,
I got out of all of my short positions and most of my VXX today, could no longer take the pain and the margin calls. What a beating I took over the past eight months. I am certain my actions will flip the market. I can't seem to get on the right side anymore. You must have gotten blasted on your VXX position with the mindset of chasing it down as I know you had mentioned on this board. Sorry, misery loves company. I am sure the poor economic state of this country will rear its ugly head just as soon as I go long. So I pose the question to you and the many other well versed and educated of this board, if you had $100,000 today, what would you do with it? Looking for strictly security minded response. I have plenty of real estate and Cor stock to last me a lifetime, so no need to go there.
Regarding Cor, there exists no near term catalyst that I can see other than early SA data release with solid results. I don't see that happening at least prior than expected, so Cor will be again stuck in the mud pertaining to sp until the new carrot appears over the horizon.
>>I tried to kill my ex on a horse farm...with a saw. That's what they called me in the 'pen.'. We are together again, so there are no hard feelings anymore<<
The funniest thing you've said to date. She sure must be a forgiving woman... probably of the same church as Ombow.
Regarding the Gfp comments:
Ease of trial - I think I've heard that before, hmmm RD and SA trials were to be quick and dirty according to some on this board and easily partnered allocations. Well one partnered, simply a year late. The other remains to be seen.
I do agree ADHD indication carries far more interest and should be more straight forward as Cortex has been there, done that. But man these guys sure don't give me a sense of ease regarding timelines and spending appropriations. We shall see. I too am skeptical but feel a whole lot better with the 10 mill in the bank and having another crack at the big payday. We are clearly better off today then we were 3 months ago, now it's time for these Washington Generals to learn to play ball. The clock is again ticking.
Alertmeipp,
Although I was totally in doubt, I grabbed another 50k when Mark put out the 45 day deal comment, just in case he was able to produce. I then grabbed 60k more after Samyang invested figuring they saw something worth investing in. I must say I feel better. I'm just hoping the timeline issues don't continue to resurface. This money needs to get things done and at a reasonably critical rate, unlike years past. Feelin pretty good though, not unlike a desperately needed breath after a long underwater swim.
Well Enemem, I averaged down to the tune of just over 500,000 shares over the past several months and today am feeling that my ignorance may actually yield me a profit on this pig. Quite simply we now need the SA data to reveal itself soon with a positive spin. Piggy backing this pr with further positive activity should drive the share price rather quickly and bring the momentum players. However, six months of silence and ambiguous SA results will leave us exactly where we are. Remember, 22 cents after this news is a far cry from where we were just after positive RD data. Now we have the deal and a far lower share price due to a lack of urgency or plain bad luck. Time is still of the essence. It is reassuring however to see that a large pharma has found faith in the ampakine platform. That alone is reason to celebrate at thus juncture. Tally ho my friends the fox is near, now go get her!!!
Just one more of many reasons this market makes no sense:
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The Great Disconnect: Stocks 30% Overvalued and Still Going Up ... and Housing Rolling Over
Posted Mar 25, 2010 11:16am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking, Housing
Related: DIA, SPY, ^DJI, ^GSPC, XLF, XHB,
Provided by The Business Insider, March 25, 2010:
We don't mean to rain on the stockmarket parade (we're enjoying it, too), but we'll confess to being astonished by it.
We understand that the world's governments are pumping money into their economies. We understand that that money has to go somewhere. We understand that, right now, that somewhere is often stocks.
We also recognize that the stock market is "forward looking," meaning that stock investors couldn't care less about 10% unemployment and other depressing facts about the economy. As far as stocks are concerned, as long as the situation is improving, it doesn't matter how bad the present is.
But we're looking forward, too, and here's what we're seeing:
The housing market, a huge engine of the U.S. economy via both direct spending and the wealth effect, may be rolling over and heading for a double-dip. This despite the fact that the government is still spending money hand over foot to keep house prices propped up.
In a week or so, the Fed is supposed to begin withdrawing some of this housing subsidy by winding up its mortgage-buying program. The Fed may or may not actually do this, but if it does, this move could further depress the housing market. And that, in turn, could put more pressure on strapped consumers who can no longer borrow from home-equity lines to fund current spending, no longer feel rich, don't have much borrowing capacity, and, often, no longer have jobs. (And consumers still account for more than 70% of spending in the economy).
A falling housing market will also likely lead to more underwater homeowners, more "shadow" inventory, more foreclosures, more pressure on house prices, and, possibly, more bank write-offs. The more banks are worried about future write-offs, the less likely they are to lend, and bank lending has already fallen off a cliff.
So, basically, we think the apparent double-dip in the housing market is a big deal, and we're surprised that the market is whistling Dixie in the face of it.
If stocks were cheap, we wouldn't worry about it. We would just assume that the market was so forward-looking that it was gazing beyond the double-housing-dip to the eventual recovery. But stocks aren't cheap. In fact, measured using our favorite valuation technique, Professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted PE analysis, they're getting downright expensive.
According to Professor Shiller's research, stocks are trading at about 30% above the long-term average.
----- -----------------------------------------------------
The only contrary factor that enters into my mind pertaining to the article above which supports the direction of the current market is that my retail outlets are up over 20% from the same periods last year. Locally, consumers do seem to have more money in pocket and local real estate purchases have gone up dramatically from same periods of 2009. I'm not a believer in this market however and continue to have bets in on a failing economy.
Apparently APN01 is potentially a far better drug than CX-717. The argument that this indication is too difficult to create study now holds little water. Either poor marketing by Cor management or a poor molecule. You decide. With a potential $330 million payday, future trial design does not appear an issue, but clearly for Cor it's another phantom excuse. Not to mention the so called tightening of BP's partnering belt.
Corwatcher,
OT. Thanks for the response. I don't like VXX as a retraction vehicle anymore. It did beat me up pretty bad. I spend too much time in my restaurants as of late to follow or strategize anything real closely. I think shorting of various segments in this market is a better bet. Unfortunately my biggest play is still Cor regardless of the overall economy so this year should be telling as to my immediate financial success or failure. With the recent BP press releases of cost cutting and restructuring of R&D dollars, I'm not so sure we stand a great chance of survival here. If the economy flops once again, Cor will be hard pressed to find available funds from any source, be it the Koreans or?
Bigworld,
I had dumped my VXX at 30 a week or so ago because I could no longer take the pain and more analysts were pushing for a continued bull market. It finally does appear now though that the elements of a long term bear market are coming together. I don't see another rally anytime soon here with a double dip formation. I think the slide is pretty much straight down hill. I'm considering shorting SPY or buying into a China short ETF or a combination of several bear etf's. I'm getting out of all my long positions tomorrow other than good ole cor. VXX seems to be lagging the VIX by several percent points regardless of action... it falls faster and climbs slower than the VIX. I know it's a futures play but shouldn't the charts begin to merge at some point? Anyway 2010 I think is a year for the bears. The hedgies may continue to lock in their 2009 profits tomorrow which would continue the broad sell off. At some point getting back into gold, say mid 900's, would be a good idea, I just don't think that is a gamble I'm willing to take anytime soon either. Looks like cash will be king near term.
Thanks gfp. My attention to this board has been wavering but I do recall that was mentioned. I do think there are better things for Cor on the horizon and I am a glass half empty kind of a guy. Knowing Cor desperately needed funding, I think the financing terms are good. I tend to look at all things from a business perspective and in today's economic state, a company like Samyang clearly would not have put money into Cor based on what if scenarios and ghost intellectual property or with hopes of stealing an IP they are not severely familiar with and dumping it to the highest bidder for a modest profit, way to risky a scenario in my opinion. I would have preferred a premium buyout but after Mark's e-mail I figured that unlikely so this appears to be the next best thing short term.
If the money is in the RD IV formulation and in further ADHD study why don't they just get on with it. They should have began those studies immediately after RD oral poc with money from a larger pipe right after the RD news. I realize from comments posted here that the adhd studies are far more expensive and time consuming to run. My concern is why they did not begin the IV study last year or immediately after rd oral poc if that was the next logical step rather than go down the long vague road of an SA study and analysis.
These are still my management concerns...poor decision making at dire times. What will they do with the newly found money? Obviously pay near term operating costs and salaries. It won't go to new study but the hope remains the same, SA data, a deal and hopeful progress with IV CX-717 and ADHD. The only difference now is that the funding options wells will continue to run dry if they do not get something done during this stay of execution. I mean they had to go to Korea for this 1.5 mill, what corner of the earth will they travel to next if the pitfalls continue. Varney better learn Tibetan, maybe there is money on that mountain.
From a business standpoint though, I do see the recent financing as a positive. New investors coming to the table with what appears to be a different goal than an R&R or similar backer. In my mind it is somewhat similar to gaining confidence from an outside auditing firm's evaluation. Certainly, Cor's IP and future ability to perform were heavily exposed and scrutinized by Samyang before the 1.5 million dollar check was signed and handed over.
MF4,
I guess I was looking at this financing as being less paltry than other viable options. Pertaining to the recent response e-mail I received from Varney, I was expecting the financing before the phantom deal anyway so these terms seemed far better to me than what I had been expecting. That's the only positive spin I see at this point. Also, an international company putting there money into a flailing american bio seems slightly positive to me too. Obviously full disclosure was on the table and this company has been delving into the financing of up and coming biotechs, so again it seems like a new beginning and it's clearly better than the recent funding alternatives.
I doubt Samyang is in the business of breaking down American companies and stealing intellectual property. Clearly their history would show this if that was indeed the case. It appears a first glance that they have many other endeavors to focus on. They must have seen reasonable value in Cor's future or someone in the industry pointed Cor in their direction as a last resort. Either way, I doubt they just run around throwing out millions to companies in financial peril. The ball is back in Varney's court, no time for a double dribble. More wait and see unfortunately.
Strange marriage but money is money I guess. This has to be the last hurrah. If nothing is done with this dough it will all be but over.
Enemem,
Nice job on that find, geese a buried Korean document, well done. Keep them coming, preferably all in foreign lingo. It does seem like good news and someone from this board must be buying. I doubt anyone else is aware at this point other than the parties involved. A PR should definitely give us a slight pop. So far so good. Like I said, keep them coming, 20 more days like this and I'll be even.
CYCC, another success story. From .25 cents and delisting in December to $2.70 today. It's doable if Cor can provide anything positive. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath though.
Ahh the good ole' reverse split, murdering current shareholders and reissuing options after the fact thus creating new strength and value in management's position. This will undoubtedly be their direction when all else fails. They will not lose control of the company just support from their shareholders which is pretty much already gone.
Gfp,
>>'Irons in the fire'
'30-45 days to a deal'
'Results by end of Summer'
'Interim analysis by late Sept' <<
I did bring these statements up in my return e-mail and asked for some clarification as to the derailing. I also brought up the point of selling the company while attempting to preserve some value and closure to the current shareholder. I have not received a response.
Aiming4,
As I mentioned, it was a vague e-mail and my investment has been dwindled down to peanuts. It makes little sense for me to exit at this point. If a deal were to surface with more favorable terms, which I doubt, or SA data would turn out to be better than expected, which I doubt, the last thing I would want to be is out of the game after this long decent.
It appears there is still hope in Irvine, but I wouldn't consider an average down until I know more of a necessary financing and workings of a deal. Neuro's point, that Cor's last consideration needs to be a sale of the company, does make sense but the impression I got was that Mark really wants to continue their efforts independent...of course he would. What he wants and what is possible may be two entirely different things. I again don't think that's great news for the current shareholder but am not going to take the chance of missing a positive run up for whatever reason. Many other bio's have come back from the dead recently, who is to say Cor may or may not be next.
That is my take away. I am sitting on a probable poor term financing soon. I think a reverse split is in the cards as well. All bad for current shareholders. If a partner comes with good terms in hand, I'd be a buyer but I doubt that will be the case. More of the same is my guess.
I'm not the one to ask that question. Maybe Neuro can chime in. They all appear to be in better shape than Cor at first glimpse but I know nothing of their IP's or ability to partner.
Prana, Allon, Icagen were of mention.
E-mail. It was fairly lengthy but vague as you can imagine. All I got was that BP has been more interested in later stage programs and the best case scenario for Cor was to remain independent, continue independent, get back on their feet through financing and licensing, and go forward proving robust proof of concept.
Not a good measure for current shareholders but probably a decent opportunity for future shareholders once the terms of a deal surface. I won't sell here but I surely wouldn't be a buyer either. I may average down at a later stage. More wait and see in my opinion, but I was appreciative of his correspondence.
Neuro,
Reading between the lines, the sale of the company didn't seem likely. I think the slogging will continue to the very end. I can't say I feel very good about that thought. I would prefer the outright sale giving shareholders some remaining value and closure.
Ombowstring,
I agree with your depiction. CX-1739 is the wild card. I'm guessing the 40 million share scenario will play out soon. I tried to get more specific in a follow up but not much revelation. All I can say is that the camp remains positive and they feel they are in better shape than some of their peers with equally impressive IP's. We shall see. The titanic symphony played to the very end as well.
Gfp,
Yes, Yes,and as you and Neuro say, Yes. It all comes down to the ingredients of the deal. Sorry I didn't respond sooner,I've been out, but you see it as I see it. My take was better days ahead but what else would you suspect. Could hardly get much worse. Trying to read between the lines. I'm not feeling any more confident than before the share extension. I see a bridge financing soon and a licensing deal soon, month or two, to follow. Not sure how good of a deal that will be so I am sidelined until the details arise.
Word from camp is that a buyout is unlikely and the slogging on of this company is probable. No one is leaving and they remain optimistic that a licensing deal is near. This is the word from the captain, not that I expected anything other. Same old same old. A million or two bridge financing will soon be announced. The runway will again be extended. Lovely.
scstocks,
Thanks for the fond wishes. I'm sure you can imagine my disgust in this situation. I made the cardinal sin of chasing a stock to the floor. I refused to believe that an IP so touted could fail so miserably and I kept putting my money behind the hope of a turnaround. This position has consumed me. I rarely put so much of my time and attention, not to mention my money, into something I know very little about. It was my bad to put as much clout as I did into the words of others, well intended or not. I know better. Purely bad business and investment sense on my part. I got greedy and was hoping for blind luck to come my way in finding the golden goose of biotech. I thought it was fateful that I stumbled upon this board when I did. It's tough to take but I am fairly successful so I try to dredge on, just hoping for a some sort of conclusion to this saga with a sliver of value given back to dumb slugs like me, the shareholder. Thanks again. Good luck to you in the New Year!
"COR at anywhere near $1.00"
I pray for that scenario. I would get out just short of whole. God willing, I'm expecting a baby in february and we are house shopping. My 400k plus would make a heck of a down payment. I'd even send Varney a fruit basket and a "Thank You" note with a lesson learned notation.
Gfp,
By my calculation they have $42,381.13 left. I e-mailed Mark and he told me, seeing as it couldn't buy them much else, they were going to spend it on their Christmas party, a private charter to San Fran, a visit to Nobu with a few rounds of over priced saki, and then a trip to the Golden Gate Bridge. You can figure out what happens next. A few fake deaths with new identities soon to emerge in Mexico and the start up of Cortex El Mundo Deportes. Then, line up a whole new group of suckers and do it all over again.
Just kidding folks. Hate to start any rumors. Have a Merry Christmas all and a Happy New Year! It sure as hell can't get any worse for this group. F4T.
That was my point to the comment I made several months ago regarding an interested suitor offering a bridge financing of sorts in order to allow the company to function somewhat normally without financially imploding while the rats abandon ship. An entity who would desperately desire this technology clearly would not want to be on the auction block with other potentially interested parties. It's only valid in theory of course if the IP is indeed worth what has been portrayed by Cortex and certain individuals here.
ombowstring,
You'd get a straighter answer out of a group of toddlers playing knuckleheads at chuckie cheese.
Welcome to the world of instability and pure stock manipulation. This piece of crap is going to get played like a fiddle once some interest comes its way. Sell on any news and wait for the ride back down. The news could come from some random unknown analysts looking for a new pump to make his client a quick 25-50% return. What a joke the savior of alzheimers turned out to be.
I think Varney said at the SHM that they were doing all they could to ward off delisting. Another accomplished goal by the illustrious management team, they couldn't even find a way to get a stay of execution. That certainly does not bode well for this company for I am sure they had to reveal all their cards to the appeal board and the board saw no reason to offer them a chance to consummate their case. Some sort of pr would be nice Mark. I guess it's all bullshit anyway so what's the point. Man these guys should feel guilty cashing their weekly paychecks.
Well it's official. My ameritrade account is showing cor's new symbol as CORX.OTC.
"Cortex Pharmaceuticals IncOTC Bulletin Board Market:CORX
The symbol you entered, COR, changed to CORX."
Let the manipulation and game playing begin. The a-team should be proud. Bring on freto and the boys. Probably the only way to hype this stock is through BS pr and scam e-mails.
Bigworld,
Hows it going? My market strategy went kaput. I've missed a big move up and got back into VXX in the mid 40's thinking it just had to swing north. What's your game plan? Nothing seems to break this streak and the V recovery looks in effect. SP 1250 probably by Q1 2010. I see nothing near term to drive a massive selloff.
I'm waiting on the Cortex pipe announcement to double down, I figure under .10 cent. Then a sliver of good news and I'm out of this piece of crap for good. It's a shame they couldn't have put anything, and I mean anything, together positively and the SP would have bounced hard. The bio fields are still ripe with 10 baggers and COR could have been one if they had just put something successive and timely together. I'd be happy if they'd even make something up, it's no worse than their current lack of integritous(probably not a word but should be) actions.
Although expected, I was hoping the announcement would have been diverted until after some sort of positive pr. 10 cent was a pretty good floor for this news and it appears to have sustained. The delisting does not really change the outcome. It may shorten the bridge but that is probably a good thing. Get it over with already. Take the offer. It's like watching a destructive episode of deal or no deal. Hard ball is no longer an option as they're out of brief cases to open. 50 cents would be a win for me at this point. If not for the value but for the peace of mind that this disaster in my life has closure. I'm sick of following and chasing the stock, the story, the hope.
As Dew said quite some time ago, nearing the time when I thought the company should be sold, nearing a dollar plus a share, and that the ghost indications sought after were merely shots in the dark, when I asked for management to shelve their paychecks and reduce costs at all levels including layoffs allowing to save their cash for the rainy days to come, that these companies can dilute and continue operating forever, obviously at a cost. This is not hindsight, that was foresight, business 101, and instead of concerning themselves with cutting operating costs, the management threw countless dollars at an uncertain trial and proceeded to dilute the hell out of the company for pennies, and will continue to do so again. SA was a mistake and they should have known that. The cost is now and will always be put onto the shareholder. Management can always continue to feed themselves options. The share extension will get passed and the cycle will continue.
davidal66,
I've been a gambler all my life. A time or two I've made horrible bets and guesses, in cor, well that one is obvious. It's a shame, this board has some pretty impressive smarts and a fairly diverse group amongst it, yet we all got suckered in and bit on the thought of riches with a humanitarian mentality. I guess greed does not discriminate and mankind will probably never know the likes of an ampakine treatment. A story for the ages. Back to playing stocks that make some rational sense to me.
If someone such as Jerry speaks to Varney on a regular basis and senses a day of relief in his voice, let the board know. We don't need verbatim, just an overall tone. He's either going to be stressed to the very end or something good may have come his way, and clearly the latter would be readable.
>>Jerry, All I can figure is either - 1) we Cor-heads have been wrong all these years about the value of Cortex's technology, or - 2) all these pharmas have their collective heads up their butts, and can't see an opportunity right in front of them. <<
There has been a lot of lipstick put on this pig over the years. Maybe when the lights are turned up by BP the pig looks pretty ugly versus what we see publicly. The only thing that got me suckered in was the fact that new scientists were migrating to the technology. Clearly some of these guys are talented and could work elsewhere. Taking your talent to a losing team is pointless. No different than TO at Buffalo. He is sure to die there. As Varney is sure to have tarnished a solid career by signing onto Cor.
Varney's attitude makes me certain the deal, if there indeed ever was one, has fallen through. If he is angry about some verbal leaks on a message board then he is sensitive for obvious other reasons. His attitude would be telling at this juncture. His angry and nervous emotions reveal to me bad news to come. On the other hand, had he been a bit more stoic and calm, offering a lack of concern for the trivial, such as a message board interpretation of his random comments, then I believe we would could have seen a possible deal. His actions show a lack of confidence and closure. The deal be history not that I was ever hopeful to begin with.
It's like watching your sick old grandma die. You know it's about to happen, expected, yet painful. A moment of silence please. There will also be a sigh of relief when she is in a better place. Like when Cor's IP is in better hands. Kind of a morbid analogy but fitting. The plug from life support is about to be pulled from dear old grammy cor.