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I don't get why they don't promote the growth
I agree completely that some of the assets on the balance sheet are way overvalued. It would be nice to see a cleaned up balance sheet with most of the value coming from the real, tangible assets.
There's too much asset value on some of the not-so-tangible assets.
I think if you go back through ironcondor's posts from the start of April, you'll find this same thing discussed.
I took notes that he said there were 11072 actual orders on OL that quarter (Q1), but 16777 by order number, meaning about 1/3 of order numbers never actually go through to a sale.
Although, at the time, there was discussion of an inventory issue possibly accounting for some of the discrepency.
As I try to piece together those various posts on previous quarter order #s, and the order number around 100300 for OL morning of Jan 1, it shows the number of Q4 OL orders almost twice the Q3 total, which is consistent with what Alexa traffic indicators have told us for Q4.
Anyone have order number for WOL?
Happy New Year, everyone!
Kinda looks to me like it might not be an exact science
Trafficestimator.com is more accurate to you why?
When you heard about buybacks a couple of years ago, was it in a PR or during one of those conference calls where he talked about all his future hopes and wishes?
Did it have a specific time period mentioned, and specific mention of how they have enough cashflow from operations to pull it off? I doubt it.
I think the "quality" of the mention is much stronger this time.
We are looking at a relatively big profit for q4.
Webtraffic24.com REFERS TO Alexa in its analysis results!
In other words, it admits that Alexa is a leader in website rankings.
visualize traffic shows a much lower daily rate.
Yup, that's absolutely right. There was a big drop in traffic one week before Christmas, which lasted almost a week, but the last 4 or 5 days have seen a new surge back up to the average for the month.
It's a very encouraging rebound.
The best part is that the 3 month rank for OL is now under 100k, which means that we get 7 day averages reported for all stats, as well as the 1 month and 3 month. It makes it easier to see the short-term ups and downs.
It IS too much to ask for.
The reason for past promises broken is because of statements about desires or wishes or goals for the future, when there was no way to be sure those goals could be met.
If they state a goal for the quarter then come up short (due to lower cash flow or higher stock price than expected, or other priorities coming up), everyone would say "see, another broken promise".
In my mind, it is smart to not give specifics on the buyback. It's a sign that they're learning to not put wishes and hopes into PRs. I'll be happy if they report after-the-fact on the specific # of shares bought back.
Hold on a minute:
3 percent of visits result in an order. That is f ing pathetic didnt think it was that low.
my definition is the same..one page view = bounce = equals to no sale
$1.5M for 30 days is not a realistic estimate. Let's not get too excited.
Traffic levels for Q4 are coming in at almost double Q3. Pageviews might even be slightly more than double. If you figure that revenues will correspond roughly to traffic, you're looking at about $1.3 million for Q4.
As for your use of the term "bounce rate" in your estimate, firstly, it seems you're using a different definition of "bounce rate" than what they show on Alexa. Alexa defines bounce rate as % of visitors who only view 1 page before leaving the site, and show the rate fluctuating between 10% and 30% over recent months.
Your definition of "bounce rate" seems to be % of visitors who don't buy on their visit. That % is probably over 95%. I would guess that no more than 3% of visits actually result in an order.
My company did a reverse split 6 years ago, and our stock price has almost doubled since then.
Long term, it's the fundamentals of the company's performance, and the # of shares which determine the stock price. If a company's price went right back down after a reverse split, and there was no dilution, it means the company was not performing, their revenues or profits were getting worse (or people's awareness of those bad results were growing). That's all. The reverse split will not CAUSE the long term drop in price, but it's sometimes a sign of bad ownership, which is what makes people proceed with caution when they see a RS, justifiably.
The arguments about ticks up make no sense. If you do a 1 for 10 reverse split, the ticks up and down will be 10 times larger or more frequent. A 1 cent move pre-RS would correspond to a 10 cent move post-RS.
I buy TG's arguments more, about when is the ideal timing for it. I do think it can wait a while. However, a lot of investors are scared away by stocks under a penny or even under a dollar. If you want better valuation, you need to bring those investors in. The sub-penny price will scare away more investors, for a longer time, than a RS will.
To bring them in, you need a price over a dollar. The buyback won't get you there. It might take out 5% to 10% of the shares, but that's all. Revenue increases won't get you there anytime soon, either. It'll take years before revenues are high enough to justify prices even close to 10 cents.
Eventually, an RS is needed. I'll agree though, that the timing is not right at this time. It's better to wait until things are running smoothly, growing consistently, reputation is strong, and the price is right.
Kaos is exactly right. It's not the reverse split that gets you. It's the dilution that follows it.
The reason to fear a reverse split is that it's often a sign that dilution has been happening, and is likely to continue to happen. In this case, we can be pretty sure that dilution won't be happening, and in fact, just the opposite will be happening (buyback). For BRAV, a reverse split might make a few superstitious people sell, but it will only be a short term hit, and it'll bounce right back up.
A reverse split in no way hinders efforts to buy back, either, since it doesn't really cost anything (perhaps some legal fees?). So both can be done.
Also, it absolutely will attract buyers who don't trade anything under certain levels, like $1, or .50, or .10, and set their screens to filter them out. Sites like yahoo show BRAV's price at 0.00 all the time. A family member I recommended it to is having trouble buying the stock because the price rounds down to 0.00. (Not sure what broker would be that bad). Some brokers charge higher commissions for low priced stocks, or higher # of shares traded, which drives people away from BRAV.
If you do a R/S, don't do 1:7. Everyone will have fractional shares to be dealt with, and that's not enough to drive it into people's comfort zones. I'd say 1:100 is better. There would be almost no fractional shares, and the possibility of reaching the critical $1 threshold would become realistic. It would pop up on a lot more people's screens.
A concern:
The OnlyLeggings traffic as shown on Alexa was nice and high the first half of December, but has dropped quite suddenly the last 5 days. I presume this reflects a reduction in holiday shopping.
I guess leggings are given as gifts a lot?
OnlyLeggings.com's global pageview %, in millionths of a %, was at a very high plateau of over 400 for the first 15 days of December, up from around 180 in November, and around 100 in October.
Now it has dropped to well under 100 the last couple of days.
How well will it recover going into January? Maybe after next Tuesday, things will pick up as people buy stuff for themselves that they didn't get as gifts.
Do you mean that you're in or out? I'm confused.
I agree with this in general:
a PR being released doesn't mean it is actuall going to happen
Kaos, I agree with good investor relations as a worthwhile goal, but I'd support that in other ways than giving buyback details. If they give too much detail on the buyback, it can make it harder for them to buy cheap.
how many shares? My guess would be around 200m+ at an average of between .0055-.0066
OnlyLeggings.com's US (1-month) traffic rank was between 34,000 and 55,000 for the months ending March through September (and got as bad as 86,000) in mid-July.
In October and November it was around 22,000, and today it just dipped under 16,000 for the first time all year.
Pageviews have skyrocketed for both sites, faster than reach has, because "pageviews per user" has been way up. This says to me that users are liking what they're seeing, and probably ordering more. Pageviews in December have been at least triple what they were in September.
All bodes well for Q4.
It looks like a powder keg waiting for a spark, but sometimes stocks will resist reality for longer than expected, so who knows how long it will flounder before it takes off. Just waitin' for that spark.
It's a good question as to what the leggings market as a whole is projected to do. Is there room for BRAV to grow with just leggings?
leggings will go to the waste side as the fanny pack or the leg warmers once did
Those are good charts, kaos.
I've been meaning to post some numbers like this, so now's a good time.
I've kept a spreadsheet of some of these numbers in recent months, to get a better sense of the changes. For those trafficestimate numbers, I recorded that on Nov 12, they read 72,300 for WOL and 178,000 visitors for OL over the previous month, so based on your post, they're both up about 25% in that last month over the previous one.
I only started tracking pageview % on Dec 3, but extrapolating based on 3 month vs 1 month vs "daily" numbers (from the charts), pageview % for OnlyLeggings, in 100,000ths of a percent, went
from about 9 in Sept
to about 15 in Oct
to about 18 in November,
to over 40 so far in December. That's impressive!
I have more complete data for "Reach %". The numbers for OL, in 100,000th of 1%, for July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov & so far in December are:
50, 50, 66, 87, 104, 140+.
For WOL for the same months:
17, 17, 21, 36, 40, 50+
These numbers are why it looks to me like Q4 should have about double the revenues of Q3.
The latest surge, which started Nov 25th, has been particularly impressive.
Rankings are also reaching all-time highs, impressive since last year's big temporary spike was probably due to the Good Morning America appearance, while this year it's just the business building on its own to even higher traffic levels.
I see it more positively. Less wild speculation. More solid sustainable results, compared to last year.
On Nov 22nd I said:
I still believe they'll be over 1 million in 4Q rev, no problem, but I'm lowering my previous estimate of 1.4 million down to about 1.2 million, based on some analysis of last qtr results compared to traffic, and a plateau I'm seeing in website traffic the last few weeks.
I read the SEC compliant. Looks like it has nothing to do with BRAV. They're going after the funders for not reporting the purchases and sales of the shares.
Kinda makes you think why the management would agree to do business with such micreants (allegedly per the SEC complaint)
Earlier I posted about my concerns with a plateau I saw in traffic ranks on Alexa for WOL, whose 1-month rank and reach numbers were about the same since the beginning of November, and OL, which was flat since Oct 20th.
Then just before Thanksgiving, both sites dropped in rankings for a few days.
Since Saturday, though, they're back with a new surge, surpassing the previous highs for the quarter.
In fact, today OL's 3-month rank is under 130k and 1-month rank under 111k for the first time since last winter, and today its daily rank surged to about 85k, which means we can finally once again see the 3-month charts for all kinds of data on Alexa!
I downgrade my previous estimate of revenues, from 600k$ to 520k$ for Q3
Q4 around 730k$ in revenues, and around 15k$ in losses.Imo.Will see
1 million 4Q, IMO.... not even close
KNOWING DANNYOLOGY FROM HIS PREVIOUS ESTIMATES ALWAYS
FALLING WAY WAY SHORT
This is an extremely exciting time for Bravada. Their hands have been somewhat tied financially, but now they're at the cusp of gaining aggressive maneuverability.
Yesterday's report was about what I expected on the revenue side, given how much website traffic dropped in July and recovered steadily from there. I'd guessed 700k revenue, so it was slightly worse than I thought.
However, the profit MORE than made up for that! THAT was the exciting part, because it shows that they did exactly what they should have during the seasonally slow period: get more efficient and build infrastructure/operations! They hired a team to run the Internet and Financials side of things so Danny can focus on operations, expansion, supply chain, and reading market trends. They added inexpensive warehouse space right across the street, for efficient handling of the Q4 surge.
Even with those new expenses, they turned a bigger profit on lower revenues, which means they streamlined a lot elsewhere.
Now 4th Quarter sales are booming as expected, and they're ready for it, so a good % of the added revs should be profit. This gives them something they've never had before: MANEUVERABILITY.
They're no longer limited to just low-cost, immediate-return moves. They can make whatever strategic moves they most need now. I'm HOPING that means that they've already started a buyback while prices are low, and that they'll get current at end of the fiscal year, then turn Q1 & Q2 profits into 2 new stores next summer, so they get the new store surge during the slow season and have them running smoothly just in time for the Q4 2013 seasonal surge. I'd also not be surprised to see them experiment in a small way with some parallel product lines during the spring, most likely summer clothing, then expand on whatever works best. There's only so far that leggings alone can take you, but at the same time, it can still grow them quite a bit, and you don't want to branch too quickly or far away from what you do best. At least now they can afford to experiment and learn what else will work. The B&M stores are especially useful for that.
believe me he can add Lingerie and pajamas and beachwear under same brand name onLyLeggings.com
According to the PR, BRAV will be at $40,000 per day by the end of the week.
...
Full capacity = $40,000 a day....or did BRAV not really mean that?
If I were the CEO expanding and looking to buy back stock ... I would not be saying a word right now
Q3 Revenue 750k Net 20k
Q4 Revenue 1.3 million Net profit 300k+
I think BRAV may report a bad Q3 just due to the overall economy.
But Q4 will Surge and into '13. All is not lost. Romney will win ...
Once we have a businessman in the white house, we will see an even larger increase in revenue.
I think Q3 will be a little less than Q2, so the 700k projection sounds closer to me than the 735k, but I agree that they should easily exceed 1 million for Q4.
Of course, all this is before returns are taken out of the revenues.
Yes, indeed, basicallycotton was ranked at about 3.4 millionth on Alexa yesterday morning, and down to 4.5 millionth today. It's dropping because it just (about 4 days ago) passed the 3 month mark since it was announced, so all the early "check it out" traffic is coming out of the ranking.
I've tracked the ranking over time. It's shown almost no traffic since September 19th. It sat idle around 2.9 millionth from Sept 19 until reaching that 3 month mark a few days ago.
I can only assume that they don't think that it's ready yet, so they haven't been promoting it yet.
But the other 2 sites are doing just fine!
Q3 going to be good also