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What is the share count today and the fully diluted? I think there is lots of convertible debt from my quick scan of what was available. How can I get the FS? In Canada all the data on any company is on the stock exchange website at sedar.com and is free but I don't know how to get that data for OTC companies.
I find it weird that HCTI doesn't even put it on their site in the investors section.
natcoreex Scarpa could be on vacation. IR isn't exactly a profit center, especially when there is no news so the fact someone isn't picking up his emails etc. isn't proof of anything.
Hopefully Chuck does have other duties that are actually useful - the fact he sometimes wastes his time answering emails is not a good sign, unless it is Scarpa ghost-replying. Lots of investors have a faulty overblown impression that it is important for the company to have immediate responses to their questions - Reality is NXT has scant resources and needs to focus on their business.
All you need to know is in the TransTech article. Value investors wait for a China or sovereign nation deal- ir activity has nothing to do with it or profits, so is a non-event.
kung fu Your worries are clouding your judgement and making you create forecasts that you have no idea if there is any validity to.
No one here knows anything that isn't in the analyst reports. Any questions you listed should go to NXT ir for answers because you won't get it here.
Too bad the environmentalists who believe in GHG theory don't realize that solar actually increases GHG gases so is part of the problem, but NXT has the solution.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.nxt/natcore-technology-inc?postid=22233262
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.nxt/natcore-technology-inc?postid=22249323#postanchor
You think insiders are trading the stock today, lol? If it is a rigged game, why do you invest?
If one company signs up then likely they will all have to in order to remain competitive.
A few months ago, Scarpa and the reports said they were sending the wafers to China and Chuck will be going there, but not unless he thinks he can get a contract.
There is no further information so it is up to individuals to form a guess opinion, which drives the sp today - I guess.
First contract - Most importantly though, Chuck is planning a trip to China soon, and Scarpa said he won't be going there unless he thinks he can get a deal, so likely we will have a deal within a month at the latest.
No one knows the physical limitations right now. How much work needs to be done to put this into a production line? All we know is it will save 23% after someone puts some r&d money into connecting the tech to their production line.
Secondly, negotiating this tech is not like when you go to the store to make a deal on a tv. There are so many tech question marks down the road with all their other potential products, that no manufacturer will do a company making deal today for NXT without getting riders on the future tech too. It sounds very complicated and could involve protracted negotiations.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.fly/flyht-aerospace-solutions-ltd?postid=22202328
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.fly/flyht-aerospace-solutions-ltd?postid=22202168
It is probably buried on page 500 of the WSJ's online content, lol.
stopshorth Natcore isn't going to take the eggheads at Rice and make them part of a production company. nxt is not stupid enough to exit their strengths. Read their site and presentations. Why would they build things when factories already exist that will pay a royalty to help them? If someone wants to make a deal with Kodak for existing capacity to use their lines that is not going to be nxt.
kungfu, you got your answer the way you worded your question. No one here knows what nxt's sales, expenses or even payroll is so the answer to cash flow fate is not on this board.
Looks like Trans Tech copied an error from the Dec 25 interview with Chuck where they said there is just 1 Chinese manufacturer getting the samples.
Sedar has everything. If you aren't reading the md&a you are a novice investor. I once read a small exploration oil company with no cash left state in the md&a that their only well was dry. The next day the sleazy mgmt sold as many of their shares as possible to bagholders.
Analyst report today
The analyst said "Natcore has other projects in the platform, which I won’t go into now. One,
however, is an optoelectronics technology that can make an all-optical computer
backplane. Utilizing photons instead of electrons, optical backplanes are expected to
play an increasingly important role in microchip technologies."
The report also answers the questions we had after the 23% report came out about doubling power and halving costs.
Chuck Provini sums up the Natcore game plan succinctly. “We basically have a
handful of applications,” he said. “Shorter term, we have black silicon, which is
close to commercialization. Is it going to change the world? No. Will it make for
great improvements? Yes. Will it get us revenue? Yes. We have a selective emitter
process, and are putting our technology into the production line. We have two
other applications. One is a flexible solar cell, a thin-film application. We put two
layers of cells on it to improve efficiency. And then we have the tandem or quantum
dot solar cell. We think the last two will have meaningful impacts on this industry
and, in truth, the world. We think one will double efficiency and the other will cut
manufacturing costs in half.”
Making a tamper proof box is not hard so that did not stop a deal. They already said it was tamper proof.
Scarpa told me the manufacturer's weren't willing to part with their furnaces since there was no salvage value - no one was willing to take the risk on somebody else's technology because the risk return didn't capture their interest. It would become a company maker for nxt and after a year the manufacturer would just be proving it up for his competitors so with 1% or so improvement it wasn't interesting enough.
Not true. The box has a tamper proof safeguard that destroys the ip if someone tries to find what makes it tick. That brings back memories of Mission Impossible when it was a tv series decades ago.
I think bs made the other tech obsolete, and no manufacturer of cells was willing to run the risk on the new tech so they had to dig deeper and make a more robust tech that solves many more cost and performance issues - this was always the plan but they had hoped they would have partners to foot the r&d bill. Instead we have been diluted share base but have more of the tech so we play the cards we are dealt.
btw there are 17 granted patents and 29 pending, so lots has been uncovered in the last few years. It takes about 3 years to get a patent granted although perhaps they are paying penalties to delay the reviews which would be done to keep it out of the public domain and from competitors.
Keep it simple and stick with what Chuck says right now. They think lower costs are going to be the attraction, and I doubt he had a brain fart during the interview.
He laid out a roadmap in January so that is as far as I am looking considering the market cap is only $70M with the warrants in the money.
The latest Provini update on Dec 25 had a lot of surprise positive points, and was before jungfu went bullish. It is natural to change opinions on a spec stock like this with so much upside but with only indirect third party opinion on the reasonable possibilities of success.
If we were 100% convinced they can get 23% savings right now, we would sell everything and plow it into nxt. Provini says he thinks they can get it so that is as scientific as we can be in explaining whether it will be attainable.
I hold 105k shares and 200k warrants and wonder every day if it will happen or if I should sell some. I am guessing there will be a big January pop based on sending the wafers to China and releasing a positive nr about it, so I hold the paper until at least then. No answer is presently available other than what you read in the nxt nr's and interviews.
If you are referring to the countries that propose to use nxt process, they will likely outlaw competition to protect their investments. I am doubting nxt will be putting up much capital for something like this and they won't be operating the facilities either.
".. we are going to send forty wafers with a black silicon coating to a solar manufacturer in China. Those wafers are going back to that manufacturer with our black silicon on them. The Chinese manufacturer will then complete the solar cell process. What we're hoping is going to happen, and we're pretty sure it will, is that if they're now making a solar cell with 18% efficiency, our process will yield the same 18% efficiency, but it's going to cost them 23% less to make it. That step will probably be done by the end of January 2014. Then we will have shown that our black silicon process will keep the same efficiency but cut production costs by 23%. That is something we think we can go to market with."
Here are some highlights from that article.
Interviewer "...potentially where do you think this could be, revenue-wise, for Natcore two to three years down the road?"
C Provini: "We think if we get a 25% market share, and that sounds like a lot for somebody that doesn't even have a machine yet, but 25% market share in the solar industry is really one or two large Chinese clients. We think that with a 25% market share we think we'll be making upwards of 400 million dollars a year from the black silicon process alone.
In another marketing arena, we are now in conversations with three different countries. They're saying, "We want you to build a solar plant." Initially we said, "we don't know anything about a solar plant or building it." But now we have Daniele Margadonna and David Carlson on our Science Advisory Board. They know plenty about building solar plants. So we'll ask them to come up with some idea of the cost of a "best of breed" solar facility, meaning they would cherry-pick the best equipment from the German manufacturers of solar cell production equipment. And then, as our technologies allow, the new facilities that we build will have exclusive rights to our technologies for some period of time.
That is probably a more exciting prospect to me than going to an individual solar cell manufacturer. But these are not mutually exclusive; we'll do both."
Does anyone have Chuck's email sent after the Monday nr? if so, post it.
They probably already knew this was an issue to master years ago, but like everything they keep it secret until they solve it or are at the point of solving it as they claim now. There might be more breakthroughs in future that are currently classified as hurdles hidden from shareholders.
It might be that there was no sense working with lasers until they had the more mature product of today. Perhaps the laser they needed has just been invented so no sense trying to work with lasers before. "The laser that is being considered by Natcore can be extensively manipulated so that optimum conditions can be found."
It helps the marketing efforts. Without sales there is no bottom line. The more that has been proven the greater the chance they will sell something (someday), as opposed to presenting a bunch of theoreticals that they only think will work.
If NXT isn't interested in proving lasers work then no factory will be either.
No one needs shares to post here if you have something to say about NXT. This run-up has involved a lot of volume over the last months, so the buyers are not wary of the 6.3M shares that were issued at $.50 that come freetrading on Dec 21. I suppose that doesn't mean anything, other than they have high expectations like I do.
You are correct about the history of that overused word "soon" however I think this time is different.
It seems the product has more applications so will be easier to work a deal with a manufacturer. I have no background to prove that, so perhaps I just fell under Chuck's spell again but I am optimistic.
kf - They don't announce things at conferences as that would be insider news to participants. Besides, with the internet, the days of public announcements at AGMs and conference events are dead.
Why restrict yourself to a tiny group when the world can access a nr?
That is not to say these conferences can't generate some interest from new investors if the company is undervalued and has something exciting and reaches out to those who are not familiar with it, but a secret announcement is a no-no, and there is nothing in it for Provini to engage in such behavior, so it won't happen.
boring
On Oct 31, NXT extended the 2,016,000 $1 warrants that would have expired in Dec and Jan to Dec 2015 and Jan 2016. Perhaps they think their tech will be ready in Jan or later so want to keep these warrants alive for financing.
This is the first time they have not let warrants expire, including the NewCyte shareholder's warrants so those guys ended up getting nothing for selling NewCyte.
That momentum is a non-event. The only thing that matters is advancing the projects because that is what drives the sp.
My example on Oct 30 at 6:31 erroneously used 35% when the nr is only 23% so we would be looking at $1.30 less 23% = $1 to produce something twice as powerful.
However the nr does not discuss the SE productivity % so maybe that was left out. Additionally, a bs cell is more efficient than a regular cell, and my example does not take that into account. Twice the power comes from the tandem + adding bs and se improvements may make it 2.30 the power of a normal cell. With the 23% cost savings that might get them up to double power at half cost.
That is enough theory with no solid numbers but I did it to try to reconcile the "half cost" claim so I will wait to see what else comes up if they are able to execute their other goals.
It wasn't a dumb question, but it is impossible to just survey and get a reliable answer because of the total changeover in the plant operations to an unproven process while junking an existing proven process.
The AR box is a production item and they need people who can keep ahead of the curve while developing the products. You can't develop a product in a vacuum, so have to consult with people who know how to work with it.
I don't spend time worrying about who will sell their shares because if the projects succeed as investors hope, today's sellers will be dirt under our wheels.
If you ask someone if they would revamp their plant so it could save 35% then they will all say yes. I hope that answers your dumb question.
Switching is a question of risk versus return, since the junked furnaces would have no salvage value. That is what has held everyone back in the past, so we will see how compelling the independent study is to change their minds.
PARA 2 - On second thought, that can't be right. If for example it costs $1 to build a normal single today then half the cost is $.50. A NXT tandem using some parts in common but with an additional layer has to use more total parts so has to cost more, say 1.30. Knock off 35% for today's efficiency nr and you are left with $.75 which is not $.50 above. The tandem doubles power/efficiency but is not 50% cheaper than today's single sell.
I think mac is referring to outright sale of the tech to one buyer, but that isn't the plan. Licensing it to each factory is the plan. They needed to independently prove it works before they can get a single license sale for any factory.