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Wavehello: That was a fascinating article. Thanx
Zen: Ignoring the flawed logic, the distortions, etc. there is one big difference. Wave is now shipping actual product on the Intel board.
Sales figures will not be available, except for whisper numbers for weeks or months.
So, let's look at the marketplace as a way to perhaps glean some early intelligence on whether the world is embracing Wave or simply yawning.
A revolutionary product, disruptive technology, all the things you very people have touted about Wave--that stuff when it comes to market, creates some excitement. Yes, it is very early, but have any of you heard any buzz? Have any of you seen any signs of people sneaking money out of their sock drawer and putting it down on Wave stock? I haven't. Does not prove anything, except that maybe inertia may take a while to overcome.
But with low volume trading, any buyers at all would help push the share price up a few pennies. We haven't seen that. This is not the definitive answer, of course, but as a rough gauge, it is probably as good as any.
As far as singing that same song, Zen, you have been stuck on that same cheerleading high note for years.
Bluefang
Wavemaster--thank you for the correction.
Blue
Doma: I saw it the first time. Listen, I think it is wonderful our product is shipping. It is what we have all been waiting for. My most recent posts deal with the reception it is or is not getting in the market place.
Look at Rachelelise's reply to me and my reply to that post and you will see the issue outlined fairly well.
Naturally, we think Wave is wonderful and as soon as it comes available, people are going to snap it up and start talking about this magnificent little company in Lee that makes this amazing technology. But in real life, the situation may be a little different.
We are in a different place than we ever were. Before, there was only mgt and a few others with whom we had partnered, to describe the value of this technology. Now that it is available in the marketplace, the world can judge it to be great, so-so, crapola, or anything in between. You and most of the others here take it as a given that it will be a smashing success.
I, on the other hand am looking for some rational signs that that is the case, or not. You seem stuck in the cheerleading mode, while I am in the evaluation mode. We'll see which way it turns out in short order.
Bluefang
Kitesurf: Those of you who are so intent on cheerleading certainly will gain nothing from asking or thinking about critical issues. You think all is OK with Wave and its mgt despite what we have been through.
The fact that I raise criticism, deplore bad behavior by mgt, point out unsuccessful strategies, broken promises, unmet shipment dates is, I am sure, an irritant to you at the very least.
So, let me suggest a remedy. Since I rarely read your content-light, "Go Wave Go" posts either, why don't we ignore each other? Neither of us thinks the other has anything to offer, so why let all those electrons die for naught?
The irony is that both of us may end up in the same place we both want to go. You, thinking Wave fulfilled some sort of manifest destiny, and me thinking Wave succeeded despite incredibly bad decisions and behavior.
We have different philosophies, different values and differing opinions about those at the helm. So why don't we agree to co-exist in our parallel universes, without either of us intruding on the other's bubble.
Bluefang
Rachelelise: A very thoughtful reply, containing some truth and some valuable observations. Obviously, it is quite early in the game. I had hoped some excitement would ensue, once the product shipped and was looking for that in the marketplace as an early validation.
One small area of disagreement. If the Intel employees, or the IT pros in the know saw Wave as an excellent place to invest, in your words..."Do you think the dozen or two dozen or so folks in the enterprise loop would go out and ourchase tens of millions of shares of Wave stock and tell all their friends. I don't think so."
Neither do I. However, with low volume, it would not take many purchases on the plus side to cause the price to rise. And as the price rose, these new-to-Wave fans would be seeing instant verification of their wisdom and would buy more and tell more friends and relatives, which would cause the share price to rise even more. This is the buzz of which I spoke. It is a powerful market mover. We haven't seen that yet and that proves exactly nothing. The product may be quite good, but it may also require some time to evaluate and that may be the reason we have not seen a small goose in the share price.
If Wave continues to drift down over the next few weeks, I would see that as a bad sign.
Like you, I thought the most recent financing round was a last gasp, close to a death rattle--but it seems there was a pay-off in the form of the trusting computing model being validated by the biggest players in this space. And of course with the contract with Intel and the suggestion that IBM/HP and others will follow.
So, IMO, we have to continue with the waiting game a little longer. I no longer believe that my measely 5K shares are going to set me free financially. My hope is after all the effort, time and money expended since 1996 on this stock-- there will be a reasonable payback.
Thanks again as always, for the intelligent response.
Bluefang
Rachelelise: With all due respect, I believe it is you who has a flawed understanding of the market. If more people buy than sell, the price goes up, i.e. law of supply and demand. If more people sell than buy, price goes down.
Yes, millions of shares have traded. But if there was more buying than selling, our shares would be headed north instead of south.
My point is that the Wave product is out in the marketplace for people to try. If it wowed people, they would be buying our stock, because it is at bargain basement prices. They are not buying. So what does that tell you? I know it is very early in the game and we certainly will not have any revenue picture for weeks, if not months. Still, an early indicator is the share price.
If a product comes on the market and there is excitement about it, people buy that company's stock. What is flawed about this thinking? Where is the hole in the logic?
You have been a critical thinker, a bit optimistic, in my view, but certainly fair. You also understand the technology and the way the tech world operates. I'm looking for early signs and I'm seeing nothing.
The electronic world is being croaked for lack of security. We have a product that claims to meet those needs. It seems to me if the product was a humdinger, we'd see more action in our share price. Is this not a fair test?
What am I missing?
Blue
Eamonn--and so all those good questions about Wave must go a begging for an answer. Not one soul has taken a shot at answering them.
Are the questions that hard? Especially for such a clever fellow as yourself?
Tsk tsk.
Blue
Barge: Why is that? Because the questions I pose are not legitimate? Not relevant? Not on the money?
Why not just answer the questions, put me in my place and show me to be the idiot you think I am. Who else on this board is asking hard questions?
Anyone who believes in what you have to say, given your history of being 100% inaccurate on future predictions, might be considered mentally challenged too. You've had HP & Wave joined at the waist for at least five years.
You, of all people, Barge. You have been the litle lap dog all of us love to reach down and give a loving pat on the head. Now you are trying to speak on behalf of the board, telling them whether to answer or not?
Lying at our feet, you at least kept our tooties warm. When you stand up and bray like a billy goat, you are not nearly as charming.
Be a good boy and lie down. Carly will come along soon and give you a good night pat.
Blue
30 Days is a short time, yes. But such a critical time, don't you agree? After a decade of stuttering, slipping and falling, changing strategies and tactics--they finally got the product out. I say hurray for that. But now the question is, what is the world's response? Isn't that the issue that is on the table now?
We may not know w/in 30 days, for sure. But, it was one of those surefire winners, I think we might have seen a hint of something.
Maybe I'm just impatient.
Bluefang
Eamonnshute: If I could only recall your other handles. Old age is so terrible. Snappy reply. I guess all the deep thinkers are not just lurking.
Loved how you evaded the question. Too tough for you? If Wave is out there and we all assume it is, is it selling? After all, Wave is riding on the back of the biggest chip monster ever, with all of their marketing muscle, etc.
So why are the salesmen, the buyers, those in the know about security issues, etc--why are they not picking up a little Wave, just in case? That's the real question my friend, not the phony one you tried to pose.
Doesn't it stand to reason, if we see a rise in share price that someone thinks we have merit. And that the converse could also be true? The problem is we are no longer theoretical. Our product is out there in the big, bad marketplace. And that means Wave mgt can no longer characterize it for the rest of it. The critics and the users will be quite candid about its worth. I hope it is as good a product as we have been waiting for all these years.
I just think the silence and the slipping share price are very early indicators that things are less than golden. But I'd be happy to hear your substantial thoughts on this argument.
Bluefang
All these positive posts! All these good things going on. The Intel chipset with Wave aboard has to be rationed one to a customer, no back orders. Now cell phones are up on Wave's radar screens. IBM pumping out Wave technology, HP itching to do the same. Can world domination be far behind?
Only one nagging question, guys and gals...why is our share price slip-sliding away, instead of being pushed up by those who use our product and see how superior it is? They must be checking the stock price and see what a bargain it is, below $3.
You'd think they'd be falling all over themselves to buy it up if our product has merit, wouldn't you?
Hey, maybe it will catch on, but the early returns do not smell like success to me.
But go ahead, tell me how the complete silence in the marketplace and the slowly eroding share price is proof of our success.
For years I complained that Wave kept promising to ship its product, but didn't. Now they are shipping and it is not clear yet if anyone is buying. If I bought one of these new Intel chipsets and it performed as advertised, first I would smile, then I'd be on the phone to my broker to buy some Wave.
Weby's analysis yields the stunning conclusion there is accumulation. Weby, maybe I don't understand the market, but I thought if more shares were bought than sold, the price goes up, not down. Straighten me out, lad. The aurora borealis bands are tighter and brighter--you know what that means...our children will be born with no clothes on.
Nice to chat with you delusionals again. I admire the creativity that goes into seeing downside as upside. Just hope no one gets hurt turning themselves inside out. Looking forward to the intelligent responses that ensue.
Bluefang
Bluefang to those who replied: How interesting that not one of you said you would admit it if Wave didn't make it. I said I would admit I was wrong, if Wave succeeds.
Then you deliberately distorted my message. I was gone for one month and during that time the share price has steadily eroded.
Three of you included the share jump following the Intel & IBM announcements. I was here for that.
I pointed out there seems to be a lack of buzz surrounding our stock and you disagreed without marshalling any facts or arguments, unless the one weak allusion to "the alleged stealth strategy" can be considered an argument.
I pointed out the smart money usually is on winners early and one of you responded, using the ludicrous example of the Imclone CEO. He was a crook and he belongs in the slammer for insider trading. In no way can he be called "smart money."
Is there one rational being in all of Wave land who can tell us why, when Wave is shipping on the Intel chipset, why is our price going down? It is such a simple question. Should not the prospect of revenues at long last give us a little push upward?
The inside-out reasoning that prevails here is truly disheartening. I can only hope that the deep thinkers, if there be any left, are content to lurk. Because the quality of the reasoning and the responses of late do not show the Wave community in a good light.
If our product is out there in the marketplace and it truly solves as many security issues as we have been lead to believe it does, it seems as if there would be the beginnings of a buzz along about now. The only buzz I hear is that of the delusion-eating insects honing in on a big feast.
Bluefang
Weby: You make a compelling argument. So how come folks are selling Wave, instead of buying it, in the face of so much good news?
Do you think the folks in the business of security are as blind as old Bluefang? Wouldn't you think those in the business would sprinkle around a few greenbacks just in case this dark horse does come in?
What about the employees, their relatives and their friends? If Awk's Hurricane is coming, why is the barometer so flat? Why are we the only ones to see the true light, to feel the storm surge?
Is it real, or is it one of those delusional mirages that seem to pop up in the distance of the Wave desert so often?
Blue
Twinkie Dinkie: Glad to put a smile on your face.
You put a smile on my face, too.
"Bluefang, where does it say that every milestone that a company achieves has to be validated by a surging stock price?"
That is of course, a fair question. But if I may pose a question in reply, shouldn't a company's progress towards its goal be reflected somewhat in the share price? There may not be a surge, but generally, one might expect a gentle and steady rise, right? Particularly, after a long dry spell, when some objectives, finally, after being promised for so long, appear to be being met.
Instead, we have been treated to the opposite. We have seen a slow and steady erosion of share price, while simultaneously shipping product and occupying that important real estate on Intel's chipset.
Actually shipping product after claiming to "next quarter" is in fact something to be marked as definite progress. After all, if the product is not out on the market shelves, it can not be sold. On the other hand, just being on the shelf, does not guarantee success either. It may be too expensive, too difficult to use, too anything for it to gain traction in the market.
That's why we look to the share price for a little preview of what the smart money thinks. If they are buying, it's a good sign. If they are not, it's not so good. Granted, the smart money is not always smart and it is possible to overlook a small company with an important product. However, a good product has about itself, a buzz that precedes it.
IMO, sitting here from afar, Wave is lacking that buzz. This is in no way an indictment or a final verdict. It simply may be inertia has to be overcome. It may also be that Wave has been coming to market for so long, its actual arrival may be anti-climactic.
If it takes off, I will be the first to admit I was wrong. But, if it does not take off, if it stalls and even falls--what will you ladies in the cheerleader outfits do?
Will you say, "It was a good try and it should have worked, but it didn't. Too bad." My guess is not.
What I expect to hear from you, is that the worldwide conspiracy to stop Wave by the consortium of market makers, shorts, journalists and bashers has succeeded in the short run. And just as soon as the Spragues sell some more shares, vote themselves another round of bonuses, hire some more relatives, they will be back into the thick of the fight.
The true beauty of being delusional, is that nothing is ever your fault; nothing is ever over, even when it is; nothing means what it appears to mean, in fact it may mean the exact opposite. In this context, failure is seen as proof of success.
If this shoe is uncomfortably close to fitting, try some reality therapy. Stop making excuses for poor decisions, bad judgement, a lack of strategy and the squandering of cash. Even these harsh measures may not be enough. Kool Aid is the opiate of the asses.
As I enter my seventh year of waiting for this stock to take root and flower, I think I can be credited with having the patience to see things through. And it should flower, because it is a good idea. And think of all the fertilizer used on this product!
Bluefang
A little Blue-Note slipped onto the message board...
Well, hello again, folks. A month away and not much has changed. The same folks singing the same songs. The share price has eroded a bit more. Obviously, a real buying opportunity. Still no revenues that we know of. Any dry powder left, my friends?
All is fine in WaveWorld. We have more demos, but no sales that we know of. News releases, but no product.
It is truly amazing how just a little time away from it all clarifies the mind. Go off the Kool-Aid for a few days and one realizes just how thin a gruel pure hope is. It's kind of like a cup of water and a bouillon cube, but minus the bouillon.
Re-read the Smart Money piece and thought it was easy on us. Have you ever noticed at the trials where a really crazy person is the defendant--he never wants to claim the insanity defense? It's the same for Wavoids. The delusional deny the delusions.
In about 15 minutes I was able to catch up with all that has gone on in my 30 day+ absence. How did you do it, Blue, so quickly, you ask? Well, it seemed there wasn't much to catch up on. In fact, not much transpired at all.
Things are positively boring here. But that's the way you like it, right? No one throwing that cold, icy water of reality on you. Days of bright sunshine and endless hope. This slog is more like slumber, except it is not refreshing the way real sleep is.
Just a little more than two months left before we should start to get a look at the awesome Wave force Intel is unleashing on the world. Oh, did it already happen? These Wave boys know how to create some real excitement.
Can we feel that rumbling sound? Are the leaves read? Dots connected? Was June ours? Did we have enough patience? Let's drink to another round of dilution. What say we vote the boys in Lee another set of bonuses for the fine work they've done in bringing value to our shares?
Many of us hoped to be Wave free in 2003--now it's to be really poor by 2004.
Whatever happened to those WaveTel dreams? Did they go off to the dongle graveyard too? Gosh, that graveyard is getting so crowded.
Bluefang
Snackman: I bet if I posted, "We're taking off!" repetitively, it would not be deleted, nor would I be reprimanded. I have had posts deleted that attacked no one except company mgt. I don't see any posts deleted or any warnings issued to those who, without fact or foundation, state over and over, "just you wait and see, Wave is going to be the next..." or words to that effect.
I think you rule with too heavy a hand, my friend. Criticism should be tolerated. I understand the DD board negativism = disingenuousness, but I thought this board would be different.
Some of my deleted posts were answering those who attacked me. Awk, for instance has posted repetitively that no one wants to read me and I should go away. Am I not allowed to give my opinion on subjects like that? If you allow the attack, it seems fair you should allow a defense or response.
I have told one and all, Awk included (on more than one occasion) that if he finds my thoughts unpleasant, repetitive and of no value, simply skip them or place me on ignore so he won't have to endure the constant horror of my tedium.
To me this board is becoming a lot like your other board (DD) and the early promise it showed about allowing fair discussion seems to be slipping away. Many may not like what I have to say, but it does provoke some lively discussion. When you get the preacher and choir all singing the same tune, it may be safer and less threatening, but also quite boring, IMO.
Here is a plea for a lighter hand. I believe Wave can withstand the tiny darts,arrows,suggestions and occasional insults Bluefang throws. Do you not have real confidence in Wave and do you feel the need to shield this company from my little contrarian voice of dissent?
Many have written me privately, and a few brave souls publicly, to say they do not always agree, but find my views challenging and thought provoking. Something to consider.
I will voluntarily remove myself for a period of one month and see if you think it is an improvement, OK?
Trying to get to the same place you and all the rest of the longs are headed--but by slightly different means--
Lovingly--Bluefang
Rachelelise: Whatever happened to our "disruptive technology" Or to our "Paradigm change?" Haven't heard much along those lines of late. Why is that, could you explain?
Blue
88C: As long as it is consumed correctly.
88C: No, it was to inform. The aggravation is assumed.
Bluefang
VacationHouse: Just read the fascinating Intel article. I found the "roll-out" sub-article to be most interesting. Thanks for the link--it is all pretty clear in layman terms, even though there is much jargon thrown around. Even a non-techie like me understood it.
It also made me laugh to see the ads for AMD's new 64/32 bit chip all over the pages about Intel's LaGrande. This was a clever bit of gamesmanship by AMD. It is even funnier when you get to the slides and the AMD ad looks almost the same size and format as the slides.
Thanks much for the info and link.
Blue
Rachelelise: Excellent post! We see things exactly the same.
Like you, I am concerned about speed. As security becomes the priority, there is bound to be competition in this space and not just from Microsoft.
I'm not even sure if MS would be competition. MS is to security and trust what the Cardinal is to protecting children.
Well said. Would like to hear more, though, about that secret list.
Best--Blue
RWK: Sure there are inequities in the market and some companies are overpriced and some under. But in the long haul, good companies with good management and good income generally do well. The reverse is true too.
So, how do you measure the chances of a company like Wave with no income? The "experts" slap a value on it that may or may not correspond with what the future may hold.
EMH notwithstanding, the law of supply and demand rules. Most inequities are eventually corrected, unless in the case of Enron, et al, the books were cooked. In an open market in an open society, market forces determine a company's value. It may not be a perfect system, but all companies play by basically the same rules and all have roughly an even chance to claim value.
Thus when it appeared Intel and Wave had a deal, followed by IBM, investors and speculators rushed in. When it was later learned the deal would not mean significant immediate income, the shares traded down. Any real change in this will be presaged by buying or selling. The more significant the change, the greater the volume. Lack of volume means disinterest.
Blue
Allman: I didn't quite understand the point of your post and can't remember when I posed as a "diction" expert.
Nevertheless, from the same Shakespearean play: "There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..."
This is the flood tide for Wave. Whether we float or sink depends in some part on the vagaries of the changing market and technology, and in some part on the skill of our mgt.
We have not been very good in the past 10 years in terms of selling our technology. Perhaps it is because the market was not ready. But let us not forget, we did not start out selling security and trust. The original technology was to meter and protect content.
We have had many strategies over the years and not one has been successful. But all of that matters not one whit, if we go forward and execute now. Maybe our mistakes have taught us what not to do and now we have learned the ways of the world and maybe we are in a much better position to execute.
That is my hope. Balancing all of this is the weight of the past, the mistakes, etc. Has our mgt team learned from the errors and corrected them? Are we stronger now than before?
That is the great unknown. My money's still on Wave. Unlike the true believers, I worry that the same problems which plagued Wave in the early years, will hobble us now that the opportunity and the environment is right. I am concerned that the hitters who went 0 and 50, will now be able to hit the grand slam in the ninth inning. Is that not reasonable? Is that negative thinking? To me it is reality thinking.
But either way, we will soon know. If income and deployment elude us once again, I would not hold out much hope for the future. By the end of Q1, 2004, which is just six months away, after more than 10 years, we will finally know whether we are gaining traction or are not even in the game. At that point, no excuse will be credible to this investor.
Blue
Ditherex: You are more kind and forgiving than myself. Perhaps some of the statements SKS made can be considered extreme optimism and not lies. But some of the statements he made to me in person were just plain lies.
But let's not dwell in the past. Let's go forward. I bring up the past, only because it colors the future. It has made me skeptical and cynical about anything coming out of Lee. This is not such a bad thing. Once burned, twice shy. How many times can Lucy pull the football away from Charlie Brown and he will still believe she will hold it for him to kick?
All I'm saying it, I'll believe it when I see it. This is not some reaffirmation of negativism, it is a realistic approach. I feel I was lied to, so I will be careful about trusting those persons again.
Let's leave the past and look to the future. From where I sit, it looks promising. But promising is not the same thing as a done deal. We have learned this lesson with Wave over and over. What's wrong about waiting for revenues to back up the announcements? When Charlie Brown actually kicks the football, then we know Lucy actually held it for him.
Blue
RWK: Thoughtful post. I don't believe I ever said that share price was the "arbiter of doness," instead, it is an indicator--one indicator.
If we have something no one else has and we are the only ones to realize it, we are either far ahead of our time, or delusional. Ultimately the share price will reflect which it is. Because ultimately, the market places a fair value on what is being offered for sale.
Many of us believe Wave is underpriced, given where we are in the Trusted Computing world. That may be so, for a while. But after proper exposure and after the experts in this field get a chance to study us and make recommendations, if the price says we are worth $3 and change, that is our value, like it or not.
If you feel your home is worth $1M and you try to sell it and the highest offer is $500K, then that is the fair market value, not $1M. That was my only point.
The share price and the volume will tell us when the world at large sits up and starts to take notice. If we are in the sweet spot, the share price will rise. If not....
Blue
Allman: And your failure to assess Wave's long history of positive annoucements followed by non-execution, non-deployment and dropped dance partners, hardly qualifies you a critical thinker. If you think Wave is a startup after more than 10 years, blessed be all in your household.
As for your statement: "You confuse your lack of understanding of the marketplace with "management is a bunch of liars". If you have been so wrong in the past why does your negative opinion matter now?"
First sentence is a non sequitur that I can not decipher.
Second sentence begs a parallel question: If you believed all the hype of the past that never came true, weren't you wrong too?
My crime was I believed mgt, until it became obvious their statements were not grounded in reality. So are you blaming us, the shareholders, for being lied to, or for believing the lies?
The strong emotion emanating from your post is indicative of how you view Wave. You view it with loyalty and heart, which would be worthy of a cause, but not an investment.
If my "negative" posts get under your skin, please skip them and save your blood pressure for something that counts. But I suspect what has incurred your anger is the truth in my posts. There are facts I cite that even the most loyal wavoid can not refute with anything other than emotion and wishes. Unfortunately, the investment world exists in reality.
Best wishes--Bluefang
Slightly OT--the fork in the road over future chip technology is upon us. AMD is coming out this month with a 64-bit chip that is downwardly compatible with 32-bit computing (which is what most of the software is currently) In other words, it can handle both the legacy and the future 64-bit applications.
Intel is going in another direction. Intel is saying its customers want either 32-bit chips or 64-bit chips. Therefore they are coming out with the Itanium (wags are calling it the Titanic) that is not downwardly compatible. It is 64-bit only.
In my view this is a grave error.
So what does all this have to do with Wave? The implications are obvious. 100% of what I run is 32-bit applications. But I use graphic and video editing software too and Adobe has commented they are ready to step up to the 64-bit world as soon as the chips are available. So does this mean if I buy an Intel chip, it will not be able to handle all my legacy data?
Will AMD's new chip process gaming, graphic and video editing applications better and smoother than Intel's? If so, our partnership with Intel may be affected. Let's hope our relationship with AMD is in the bag by then.
One further note: A video mag I read tested the new Intel 3.2G chip with hyper threading that came with the new 800 frontside bus.
Interesting to note they got better performance by turning off the hyper threading. They reported the 800 MHz FSB made no difference whatsoever on performance over the 533 FSB. These are CPU intense applications (video) and it will be very interesting to see how AMD's new, lower clock speed 64/32 bit chip compares on this same test. Let's hope Wave is aboard both.
Blue
How many "done deals" in our history have caused us to buy more Wavx shares? How many times did we wake up to some announcement and say, "OK. Now we're on our way at last!" Only to see the share price slip backwards instead of forwards?
You guys can wave around all those 6 x 4 posters you want and perhaps fool yourself into thinking this constitutes a real deal.
But then take a look at share price and volume. Is it validated in the market, this done deal? Are people rushing in to buy Wave to be part of the leading edge of the leading edge in security and trust?
Did anyone see any independent press reports or stories out of IDF saying Wave was essential to security and trust in the future?
IMO, this is part of the collective Wave pyscho-pathology and we have all bought into it in the past and are still buying into it now.
When it is truly a done deal, individuals and institutions will be loading up the larder with long term shares of Wave and the price will be heading steadily upward instead of the way it is now.
There is no done deal yet. When the deal is done, we won't have to look in the bottom of a tea cup to see it.
Blue
D & O--sour is not the exact word I would have chosen, but I don't dispute it. The source of it comes from how unfairly I believe investors have been treated by mgt.
Without going into my too familiar littany, it is my belief that we have been misled early and often about our chances.
Like you, I have held all these years, despite the disenchantment and the disappointment, simply because of Wave's brilliant promise.
Also, from a personal standpoint, I could stand to lose my entire stake (5K shares) a lot easier than I could take Wave going to the moon without me, after all the years of following it.
I'm willing to wait and see how it plays out. The Intel announcement was encouraging and perhaps I got excited out of proportion to what it was (that's not anyone's fault but my own).
At the point of the Intel announcement, I think many thought the battle and the war had been lost--judging from the bitter comments I read on the boards.
Eammonshute made an observant point the other day, that while Wave has battled the good fight for many years, the background has changed. Before 9-11 there was no particular pressure for security--now it is paramount, high priority. We are in the right position at the right time. It is my hope we can execute this time in this improved atmosphere and start to make progress.
That is my complaint about the IDF--we do have some sort of deal with Intel, that is clear. But exactly what it is and how it will play out in terms of revenues is unclear.
If Intel is merely hedging their bets and partnering with us because they want to preempt AMD or others, it may amount to not much. Under this scenario, Intel may put the Wave technology in one iteration of a chip as an a la carte add-on, for which there is an additional charge. That way Intel can guage the demand for this particular security solution. If it flies off the shelves, we are in like Flynn. If not...
This may be an overly cautious viewpoint. On the other hand, no one has yet gone broke underestimating Wave's prowess in the business world.
Best wishes, Blue
Trustcousa: As usual, the contrarian view--I have seen no proof that Wave will move up with the introduction of Prescott and have my doubts if Wave is even an integral part of Prescott.
There have been many assumptions made because of similarity in language regarding trusted computing and secure data and key storage--that all of this, means Wave has to be part of Prescott.
It may well be so. On the other hand, Wave's history is littered with forward-looking conclusions we've drawn from even flimsier evidence than this--that turned out to be nothing. Our leaders have encouraged us to draw favorable, but false conclusions. (See Zoomer's post of yesterday about Gelsinger's speech and SKS.)
So on what is my dreary outlook based? The Intel Developer's Forum just concluded and despite Wave having a booth there next to some partners, some of whom are giants, there was no mention of Wave in any of the important Intel literature, press releases, etc.
Kev's excellent report on who else had booths nearby was encouraging in a way, but it is also the Wave Kremlinology of the past. We decide who our dance partners are, by who stands next to whom at the May Day parade. Sometimes Kremlinology works and sometimes it is a bad guess. In the absence of facts, rumors and speculation fill the void.
So, why was Wave not featured by Intel in any of the literature, talks, and papers issued?
The loyalists will claim it is because of NDA's and because strategic info is never released until just before a product is. I say however, it does not violate strategic interests to specify that a partner is involved and to detail the way that partner (Wave) is involved.
So, just because of our history of getting up about some forthcoming deal, partnership, etc which then, is inevitably followed by disappointment--I have kept my expectations low. I will wait to see evidence before I believe again. In my view, this is not a negative viewpoint, it is a realistic reaction to being burned so many times before.
The market is also aware of our history. So, only revenues or announcements that most of the OEM's are embracing our technology will lift our share price much beyond what it is, IMO.
Some will see this as more Bluefang bashing. I see it as reality. I've had more ups and downs with this stock than a thermometer--so I'm going to wait until it is real and until revenues are coming in before I board the train to paradise again.
Bluefang
Zoomer: Thanks for the kind words. We have all been wrong with this stock, trying to predict where it will go and when. There's no shame in that.
Ski season will be here soon!
Best--Blue
VC15: Proof positive? Maybe proof positve that hopeful Wavoids connect more dots than actually exist, perhaps. I have yet to see any proof, although you appear to give opinion the same weight as proof.
I'm not saying Wave isn't in there, I just have not seen the proof. Lots of indirect hints, but no concrete proof as of yet.
In the past the dot connectors have "proved" we were in everything from HP to MS without any of it coming true. Perhaps a bit of caution is in order. I've heard of some serious injuries resulting from jumping to conclusions.
Best--Blue
Zoomer: It looks as if Gelsinger's address today (see Rooster's post) had to do with wireless/China market/etc. Was it your info that he would deal with Trust/Wave issues?
Best wishes, Blue
Howie: Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with you. But if two enterprises are attacked by black hat hackers/wormers, etc. and one enterprise is disabled and/or suffers a loss of proprietary data, while the other sails through it, IT will mandate trusted computing. It's kind of like an ounce of prevention is worth a pound or two of cure.
Best--Blue
D & O--you bet we are. We have different opinions about Wave, as you may have gathered, but have nothing but respect for each other.
Snackman is a kind and gracious friend who tries to help me and others see the light. We enjoy fencing with each other, but if we lived on the same coast, we'd be having dinner on a regular basis and believe me there would be much laughter coming from our table.
Wave is our favorite stock. Snackman gives it unswerving loyalty and I believe in tough love. Both would like nothing more than to see it gain its rightful place in the firmament. Snackman is a coddler and I believe in a firm hand when necessary.
If Wave succeeds, or even if it does not, Snackman and I will remain friends. He is a good sport and a good person. I give him grief at every turn because I love him. He watches over his Wavx brood (me included) with the eye of an hawk and the fierceness of a tiger.
He occasionally gets impatient with some us, particularly me, but he has a great heart and wants to see us all prosper. IMO, they do not make them any finer than Snackman (sarcasm withheld for a change).
His friend until the end--Bluefang
Doma: I read it twice and stupidly, I didn't see Wave's name mentioned. Is my lysdexia that bad, or is it implied, or is it written in the tea leaves? Help me out here. Is it someone's supposition that we are part of this, or is it based in reality--no, no, not the Wave Reality--the real reality.
Best, Blue
Doma: Is SKS the same guy who predicted Wave's share price would be $99 by year's end a couple of years ago? And wasn't it under $5? You know how I hate to bring up past unpleasantries and only do it reluctantly--but here I thought it was the only right thing to do.
Blue
Vc: They delete 'em as fast as I write 'em. How about this, I send you a bottle of good champagne if Oct. comes and such an annoucement is made about Prescott?
And if Oct. passes and no Prescott with Wave inside and we hear next month, next quarter, or next year-- you send me a bottle of champagne? Is that fair?
What you see as immutable logic, looks to me like phrenology. You and some of the others have scientifically connected dots to show Hurricane Isabel is really the Wave Tsunami coming ashore to drown the shorts, to validate Snackman, and to finally shut the yapping yaws of those who doubt. I see a lot of wind and some potential damage.
I'm afraid dot connecting in the past has shown us to be dominating China and virtually every OEM in the world, the entire silicon industry, electronics in general, commerce in particular. If only 1% of it were true. Sigh. So, there is some historical basis for my skepticism of your science.
We have a bet?
Best wishes--Bluefang
Snackman: Thanks for the generous dollop of pity. Perhaps, though, you could find someone better deserving of it. Health's fine (now that I quit breathing those noxious delusional Wave fumes) family's fine, life is great.
I get to annoy you guys here with a little pinprick of reality now and again, and it amuses me as much as it bores you.
You say the future's great, that we are on track to all becoming millionaires in Wave's rush to glory (next quarter, like the sign in the bar, "Free Beer Tomorrow"). Meanwhile, I stand beside you and hold up my own sign, saying "The Truth Will Set you Free."
But in all seriousness, your kind of serial promising is only dangerous if inhaled. And like Clinton, I don't inhale.
So thanks again for your concern, it really is kind of you. And forgive me for having a little fun at your expense.
If Wave succeeds you can beat me over the head repeatedly with a print out of all my bashing posts while I laugh hysterically.
You get some exercise while Blue takes the beating he so richly deserves. Win-win isn't it?
Best wishes from your friend, Blue