I am a longer, but I am currently battling a bout with doubt …

As recently as last night, I was feeling pretty confident regarding WAMUQ and the chance of a settlement within a few months. However, with another hearing fast approaching, the pps headed south again and has since stabilized, but this is getting to be a bit frustrating.

Many posters after Thursday’s hearing were predicting that this was going to drop to .10! At the time, I thought that they were crazy but this puppy is sick and something just doesn’t feel right at the moment!

I know, I know – do not look at the daily pps! I have posted that to others myself that have had doubt. The telling thing for me today I guess is that the volume is decent (not high, but decent) and the pps is down – NOT a good sign!

Like I said, something just doesn’t feel right here. Perhaps I am just going thru male menopause this morning – LOL … rs

P,

I do not think that most people are expecting a ruling on Wednesday. If they thought that, there would be very little selling today and much more buying IMO … rs

M,

3:1 or even 3 1/2:1 is the max that I see here! I have never believed in the $24 settlement! A settlement such as that is gravy! Running the numbers equates to $24 however, when does one ever get what one deserves on paper or in principal? Gravy is rarely achievable accept once a year at Thanksgiving! I am betting a 4:1 swap at best is proffered as FINAL settlement!

That said and at this point, we need a favorable ruling on the 4B first! IMO, the judge will eventually rule WMI the 4B! Once the 4B is ruled on, I believe a quick stock swap will be in the offing. JPM cannot fight this forever! They have smaller banks to seize with the help of the FDIC that will go completely unnoticed!

Settling this under the cover of night is there best recourse … rs

M,

I am of the opinion that a stock swap will be the FINAL settlement! 4:1 or 3:1 at best! 2:1 is pie in the sky and un-achievable IMO!

Jamie Dimon has a legacy to protect! He needs to be able to explain to JPM shareholders that a 4:1 split is equitable as a settlement and will NOT harm the long term share price of JPM. … rs

Harkening back to last weeks hearing …

As I mentioned last week, JPM’s use of the FDIC chowder head was the monkey wrench that we have come to expect from Dimon and Co. The FDIC has no jurisdiction in this and knows it (unless they are as clueless as every other federal agency)!

While JPM’s barristers were making arses of themselves, the pps was rising with practically every other word uttered! I feel in my heart that THJMW was going to rule from the bench in WMI’s favor as soon as JPM had both feet in their mouths and were unable to continue speaking.

We saw real-time how much the FDIC is feared as a corrupt entity when they threatened the Judge with nothing more than twenty-four carat excrement! The pps immediately reversed and ultimately the Judge had no choice but to delay her decision IMO, to go over case law and make damn sure that her ruling is un-appealable! She knows the law! She simply needs to produce a written ruling that is water tight. I have NO legal background so how long that takes, I do not know.

In closing, holding WAMUQ is most likely the biggest play that many of use have or have ever had in or portfolios. We get a little frustrated when the judge does not rule as quickly as we would like. Remember, she may have dozens or hundreds of other cases on her calendar.

Once again, next week should be very fascinating … rs

FYI:

10/23/09 U.S. bank failures pass 100 mark for 2009
By Karey Wutkowski

REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/Files

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. bank failures this year reached 106 on Friday, when regulators closed seven more small banks, marking the highest annual level of failed institutions since 1992 during the savings and loan crisis.
The number is expected to continue rising as the industry tries to get a handle on commercial real estate loans that will continue to deteriorate as more strip malls go vacant and condo developments remain stalled.

The seven banks that were shuttered on Friday all had assets under $350 million. The largest bank failure in the current crisis was Washington Mutual, which had assets of $307 billion when it was shuttered in September 2008.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said the banks that were closed on Friday were Partners Bank in Florida, American United Bank in Georgia, Hillcrest Bank Florida, Flagship National Bank in Florida, Bank of Elmwood in Wisconsin, Riverview Community Bank in Minnesota, and First Dupage Bank in Illinois.

Those failures brought the number of closings past 100 for the year, and is the first time the annual number of closures has reached that level since 1992 when 181 banks failed. There were 25 bank failures in 2008, up from three in 2007.

Banks are still cleaning up their balance sheets from the recent credit boom that fueled banks' appetite to extend loans, many with poor underwriting and triggers that caused borrowers' payments to spike to unaffordable levels.

Full article available at:

http://theusdaily.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=882383&type=home

… rs

Godfather. This is just from memory but I believe the next short report is due out on Monday the 26th. Please keep in mind that the report is not Real-time and will only include short interest thru 10/15. I am of the opinion that many shorts covered in the last few days when the pps started to dip! They can’t wait forever - the dips are their opportunities! I would estimate that the next short interest report will be <40M shares. Real time is most likely <36M.

Just guesstimates on my part based on what I have seen over the months.

Go Wamu … rs

Understandable. I have gotten out of many plays that have had enormous potential because the waiting game gets exhausting at times and soon money has to be freed up to ADD items on “the watch list” to the old portfolio!

You aren’t kidding regarding the MM’s. Many a poster has disagreed with me regarding the MM situation but these mental defectives stop at nothing to keep this down for the sole purpose of allowing their shortie friends to cover! It is a sickening and vulgar act!

Take care … rs

Jerle. Sorry to see that you got out of the Q’s but am glad that you are still posting. Your posts are always welcome, well thought out, and have a certain wit about them!

How is the JD going – and I don’t mean Jamie Dimon! … rs

For what its worth …

We opened yesterday at .20 and we closed today at .16. The two day volume was >64M shares. IMO, this is not as disastrous as many folks are making this out to be! Considering we did NOT get a ruling on the 4B yesterday and WAMUQ is only down 20% from yesterdays opening bell, that is not disastrous my friends. It is disappointing and a bit disheartening, but hardly worth jumping out of windows!

We have seen in the past that when WAMUQ runs on news or even speculation, she increases by well over 20% a clip. We have seen 50% and 100% spikes. All is not lost … rs

I say …. the charts very recently also showed support at .2506 and .22! LOL!

Sorry – do not want to get into an argument over charts!

The support does indeed seem to be .15 currently. I am content with that and with next weeks hearing approaching, a nice bump up from there would be welcome … rs

I am saying that simply playing WAMUQ based on a 20, 50, or 100 day moving average is not prudent. Sure, I play traditional stocks that way – investing 101!

I think that you misinterpreted my post!

You state “The last two days of action was pretty much in the charts. Remember last week, ppl was still screaming this will fly because of the hearing?” IMO, that is not info culled from a chart - that is simple pps and volume watching! Big difference!

Anyway, take care and good luck to us … rs

Completely agree! The charts mean nothing on this play. WAMUQ and similar stocks are NEWS driven only! Simply compare the pps movement to court hearings – nothing else! … rs

Correct! The FDIC threat today was only directed towards the new scrotomless WAMUQ investor. JPM has no basis for a legit argument! People get scared when they are day trading this play!

I am obviously long and strong as are you! We can see thru the “frivolous:” BS!

Time for beddy-bye! Take care …. rs

Jerle.

I believe that we will recover tomorrow! The FDIC dude was the “monkey wench” that JPM threw in today and has on a regular basis! They have nothing! Zilch!! Nada!

The pps was on fire when the JPM numbskull was speaking! When the FDIC spokes hole started to speak, the feeble exited – dropping the pps and allowing the shorts to cover!

We are fine now and just awaiting THJMW’s ruling once she sifts thru the bullsh!t!! … rs

LOL Chucky! I have tried to keep up with all of the posts today (business has been slow lately) but the number of posts today has been over-the-top!

Dare I say I feel more confident than ever after today’s hearing! The FDIC;s frivolous last minute stand was an unpleasant surprise! The pps dropped in real-time as he spoke. Before that, when the JPM d!pshit was orating, the pps was nicely increasing!

JPM however has nothing more to argue! Let us leave this in the hands of THJMW! … rs

Chuck. I posted this over an hour ago ...

Even though we did not get the ruling that was anticipated, I feel we need to remember that no new information was brought to the floor in the hearing by JPM’s lawyers. The “special guest star” FDIC’s argument is the only additional information that THJMW had to digest this morning. My point is she only needs time to check the law regarding if the FDIC has any jurisdiction in this case what-so-ever!

Once that decision is made, she has to cross the T’s and dot the I’s, making sure that not one scintilla of her ruling is controvertible! That said, she may only need a few days or weeks to effectuate this.

I am not saying that she is going to rule on this promptly! I am just suggesting that she can and may … rs

Good evening all,

Even though we did not get the ruling that was anticipated, I feel we need to remember that no new information was brought to the floor in the hearing by JPM’s lawyers. The “special guest star” FDIC’s argument is the only additional information that THJMW had to digest this morning. My point is she only needs time to check the law regarding if the FDIC has any jurisdiction in this case what-so-ever!

Once that decision is made, she has to cross the T’s and dot the I’s, making sure that not one scintilla of her ruling is controvertible! That said, she may only need a few days or weeks to effectuate this.

I am not saying that she is going to rule on this promptly! I am just suggesting that she can and may … rs

If you will notice, since we briefly hit .17 a good 2 ½ hours ago, this is still trading – the volume hasn’t completely dried up! I think that we are seeing shorts covering now. They are like cockroaches and come out to cover their positions when the MM’s allow it thru price manipulation - or when the weak get shaken out of the tree thru fear, as we have witnessed this morning … rs

I have tried to read almost every post here today and the entertainment value has been well worth my time! WMI did not WIN but did not LOSE! Period! The Judge could still rule in our favor in 90 days, 45 days, or tonight. Plus there is another important court hearing coming next week.

Reading certain posters whiny attitudes, “the sky has fallen, this stock is a POS, we are doomed”, markedly shows which ones are/were in well over their heads with this!

Although I am disappointed that we did not get a (favorable) ruling by the Judge at courts end, nothing has really changed since yesterday. In fact the current pps is only down 2 cents after the weak jumped ship. 2 cents!

Buck up folks and Good Luck to all who have not jumped out of windows yet … rs

Did the FDIC dude make a special guest appearance courtesy of JPM or were they scheduled to be in court today? I can’t recall if they were on the docket!

If they were not on the docket, then that was JPM’s monkey wrench and a brilliant play! They were loosing there ass until he mucked up the works … rs

Thanks to all who are giving us the John Madden’ish play by play. Much appreciated for those who cannot listen in ... rs

I do not have any reservations at all that we will win! AFTER a favorable 4.4B ruling, THEN blue skies may emerge! The potential could be limitless!

I am just saying that simply playing WAMUQ via the charts while NOT doing homework on same regarding news, upcoming court dates, etc is not the way to read this!

I have read your prior posts and they are very thoughtful and thorough and you do a great deal of digging as well! I appreciate that!

I am simply stating that playing this via charts only is not very prudent IMO!

Sorry for the mini-rant and good luck to all of us tomorrow … rs

Tex. With all due respect, remember - WAMUQ is not your garden variety trade! Blue sky territory on the charts will not equate to this play. This play moves on news, MM manipulation, short covering, and speculation!

That said, I would love to see blue skies here very soon.

GLTU and all … rs

LOL Jestir! I could have sworn that it was in Montana. Maybe they moved it recently - perhaps when I was on vacation …

Also, a few posters have suggested that we may get a run tomorrow morning but I just do not see that happening! Everyone has had his/her chance to get in for the last few weeks. With both the opening bell and the court hearing at 9:30am - this stock will be as quiet as a drunken church mouse until the end of the hearing IMO. … rs

Chairs. The board is usually relatively well demeanored and is always open to the give and take of information – and to respectfully disagree with one another when opinions clash. We also mostly have no problem answering NEWB questions but do get tired of the same ones over and over. What you have seen today (especially the morning posts) were many investors that bought in recently >.30 and were starting to get their panties in a bunch when a pps increase was NOT realized this week as was speculated leading into tomorrows court hearing!.

Many of us are longs. I myself have been in since March and some have been in for over a year! So do not let those weak fickle posters dishearten you about your new investment or the board itself. Good Luck … rs

More curious is that JPM is down $1.00 in the last 45 minutes! Hmmmmm ... rs

Nothing like a little green to immediately take the pessimism away!

Go Wamu!!! ... rs

Well politics aside. I am content with what I have seen so far over the months and confident that the Judge will make the correct ruling! I am indeed just as mentally exhausted as everyone else here as to the delay tactics and the overall non-timeliness of this battle - but it has been a ride like none other that I have been involved in!

Looks like we are seeing some positive movement as I close this!

Good Luck to you and all … rs

I was not implying that any Administration could get directly involved with THIS case. I was facetious when I mentioned the JPM janitors so forgive me if that was misleading. My point was the non-issuing of an investigation of the FDIC and SEC primarily to figure out how in the hell the WAMU and LEHMAN deals went down! I was also referring to the media blackout on this which is undeniable!

I know, I know. The seizures were in 2008 under another Administration - but that was campaign time! Well, we had a winner and the campaign is long over, how about the current admin getting some brass ones and at least start watching the watchers! … rs

It is not supposed to be this boring leading into the BIGGEST court hearing of the year! Odd! Today’s chart is showing a miniscule but steady rise over the last hour. Perhaps a POP at .19 coming? …rs

My observations for what it’s worth (after reading several million posts today):

The folks here that Poo Poo the MM manipulation theory just have not been here very long or are not a bit observant! For the last 6 or 7 trading days in particular, the MM’s have been trading this sideways to their benefit and really took it down today for their short friends to cover. Realistically, in real-time, there are still probably 37-40M shorted shares out there.

The article regarding the rescheduling of the re-org plan certainly came at an opportune time for the MM’s. The weak and inexperienced threw up their hands, wet there pants, and sold there shares after reading that! We longs where LONG expecting this reschedule. Common sense! Why would any entity go forward with a re-org plan when 4.4B is hanging in the balance with a hearing on said 4.4B scheduled only 24 hours later?

As I posted earlier today, this is the most pessimistic/panic speak I have seen on this board since the drop from .40 on 09/22! … rs

This is the most pessimistic/panicky speak since the drop from .40 on 09/22. Come on Ladies and Gents, buck up!!!

GO WAMUQ … rs

I concur as I mentioned this morning. The shorts had to be getting itchy coming into the big hearing! The MM’s keep it down for their buddies to cover and that sets off a bit of panic selling as well! … rs

I grabbed some more around 15 minutes ago @ .19! Couldn't resist ... rs

No - the 4B is peanuts compared to a FINAL settlement!

Thanks for the link Uzual!

This reads very well. Unambiguous, meritless, superfluous!

Go WAMU ... rs

I hear ya Jerle.

If some of the weak got out due to that “no news” news, and with shorts getting yet another opportunity to cover this morning, this thing is really getting wound tight! A/the 4.4B favorable ruling on Thursday could shoot the pps well past our prior armchair predictions of a few weeks ago … rs

We have already far exceeded the avg daily volume of the last 5 days in less than 2 hours of trading this morning. Looks like the MM’s were trading to each other, keeping her down, while letting the shorts cover. Also some of the weaker got out due to the BK news which really isn't news at all.

Hopefully the shake is finished for the day (unless one wishes to load up more shares). The next short report will be very interesting indeed … rs

Right on JDUB! The pps potential is unlimited after a favorable ruling on the 4.4B! Investors on the sidelines could potentially roll in even without press coverage! Just savvy investors watching and waiting! Could be anywhere from .50 to >$1.50.

All IMHO, as to what I have witnessed over the last 10 months in this battle here, and my trading experience with other BK stocks! And finally, this BK stock is unlike any other! WAMU went BK to protect itself because it was raped– not to simply secure a little breathing room until the inevitable… rs