A worthy Q.

I suppose another way to look at the roadmap, is to see it as the only way to get to the next level of performance. Every competitor in the space will have to use polymer because there are roadblocks in every other category.

So, in some ways you could say Michael Lebby is telegraphing to investors that according to the roadmap, polymers are the only way to get to low power, high-speed, next generation protonics.

Maybe we investors are looking at the roadmap in the wrong way.

All those?’s were checkmarks when I posted. Didn’t translate.

Lil’ Pump says it doesn’t work outside the lab in the real world.

All indications point to LWLG has checked all the boxes;

withstanding the rigors of high temperature and time, ?
low power, ?
low insertion loss, ?
high speed, ?
Easy to manufacture, ?

all boxes checked. Ready for business.

Seems to me that QCOM vs LWLG is a better analogy. QCOM was highly questioned, and considered a violation of physics. But nature and the brilliant work of Claude Shannon was on their side.

Global Foundries does Quantum compute with silicon photonics.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16660/globalfoundries-upgrades-for-silicon-photonics-in-quantum-computers

Jeez - a link to those . . .

Could you put up to those biotechs?

However, China is a powerful autocracy with an emperor and which controls what gets seen and discussed by its subjects. A true antithesis to the ideals of freedom in western thought and politics.

It is clearly advisable to avoid freely giving the Crown Jewels of Western thought, technology and education to empower a serious ideological and military opponent, no?

Observant, thoughtful, largely correct, not to say outspoken. A body blow to confirmation bias.

Photonics product designers from Mellanox, Cisco, Broadcom, Ciena, Intel, Microsoft , Facebook, Google, Amazon, Global Foundries ect.

True. Jose Pozo - the Guy Kawasaki of Photonics - on steroids.

I think he was ‘selling’ the road map. It’s a reference that every participant there could be using as a guide for development in the PIC space and the future of moving phonics on-chip.

The road map places polymers as the only viable path to high speed, low power modulators in relatively near term.

In some ways it keeps him from being a ‘cheerleader’ for LWLG and potentially increases his credibility within the group he was addressing.

What he wants is a phone call to his company inquiring about the capabilities and technology of the polymer solution at Lightwave Logic.

Whose polymers? Internally developed or acquired from outside?

I mean to say a cumulative quantity that would be equivalent to a 5gal pail.

How long do you suppose it will take, once manufacturing begins, for LWLG to sell a 5 gallon pail of their material?

I was thinking they may never sell that much. But if it’s 5 years, 10 years or 15 years, it’s going to be a multi-billion dollar bucket worth of polymer.

It really makes you ask more hard questions about gold. It’s not so much what it is, but what you can do with it that brings value.

Ma be the competitor we’ve heard Lebby mention, but not named.

Mellonox might indeed be interested.

Yes, according to their website. However, it feels more like laboratory than actual production ready product.

They are using organic material to achieve a very high speed, low power MZ modulator.

“Lightwave Logic will present its modulator technology ‘under development’. “

Wish ‘under development’ was not an expression in present tense.
Maybe ‘currently piloted’ or ‘proven robust, low power, low cost modulator’.

Other phrases:
‘Rigorously tested’
‘Breakthrough technology’
‘20 years in the making’


Maybe it’s just me, but ‘Under development’ sounds so ‘not ready’.

This is an interesting question and an observation. Data centers want to be at the edge of the network to reduce latency. It would seem to make sense, at least some of the data center, would get moved to satellite because that would be at the edge of the network.

I think power, space and even vulnerability issues could maybe make satellites less attractive as a data center. Latency concerns would certainly be a vector that would push it in that direction.

You are correct Pump. Presuming you have more than seeds for brains, what is different about the industry that LWLG is working in than 5 years ago?

Question - how much of their hand are those NDA partners willing to show?

They have the pilot data and some working experience with high speed, low power polymer modulators. They have a profound edge and lead in this race.

I don’t think they want to reveal their edge. In fact, if they are operating with a modicum of industrial intelligence- counter intelligence, then they will intentionally obfuscate and mis-lead.

Do you believe the implication is that;

Infinera is using polymer in a co-packaged scenario to get speed and low power?

or

They are using traditional Inp and will push the competition to catch up with other, more exotic materials?

or

They are building high speed, low power PICs that are material agnostic and the industry will have to follow suit with speed and low power?

Glad this board has a great grasp of the technological history. A terrific resource.

We don’t really know where this fits into the current technology stack

https://venturebeat.com/2021/04/12/intel-advances-in-silicon-photonics-can-break-the-i-o-power-wall-with-less-energy-higher-throughput/

Intel sees it this way -
New micro-ring modulators announced during Labs Day shrink this component’s footprint by more than 1000x. Voltage supplied by a circuit above the modulator either traps light in the ring or allows it to travel down its waveguide.

That said, Lebby is clearly respected in the industry. He has clearly provided a roadmap that points to polymers as nearly a necessary material to move forward with high speed photonics and low power. So the roadmap is in place, the credibility and respect is there, it is a matter of the industry embracing what the facts are.

Those are excellent points Proto, and not to be refuted. Unfortunately, and I don’t mean this pessimistically, truly, we just don’t know what actually is in those NDA’s and what they mean for a revenue stream.

A confident approach would look more like ‘you need to be operating with this material. your competitors are already moving forward with some of the new material, and if you’re not on board you’re gonna be left behind.’

I am not hearing that.

Your description of Michael Lebby’s posture also implies that he is attempting to jump up and down, wave his hands, and in essence, saying look at me, look at me, I have a great solution.

This implies the industry is not presently taking notice of the terrific performance of polymer in the space.

We may have a few more months of slogging, waiting, and seeing who takes a nibble on what clearly is the next enabling material for the industry.

Wondering same.

Thanks Proto on your insight regarding hours needed for stability requirement. I didn’t know what the industry requirement was.

“Dude Abides” - a coveted handle! You may well be correct.

Any news of something connected to revenue will be the watershed moment.

It could be announcing a design win, a partnership, an external mention of a design involving a polymer, any of these are confirmation of what what Lebby has been talking about. This could happen any day.

The market is only going to react to something where revenue can be sniffed somewhere in the pipeline. So far, the only entity talking about potential revenue is Lightwave Logic itself via Lebby. However, Lebby (IMO) is credible.

I think he still needs the data that demonstrates stability at 85c for 10000 hours or more. This remains a bit of an uncertainty. One year of continual use is 8,760 hrs. I don’t know what is considered the industry standard for stability and reliability over time.

I’ve pegged October as the end of the beginning. October is my best guess, but that is purely speculation. Seems to line up with the requirements for data outlined in the presentation at the 2019 ASM. We’ll know something by then. The data, as it were, will be in hand.

Proto - I used the word ‘obscene’ to describe the discontinuity of apparent truth vs valuation. It seems a relatively apt description.

Wow pumpkin! You are spot on. There will never be room for innovation, disruption power savings, or exotic material. No possibility. Great insight.

GlobalStar has been in this space for a while. I own some but not a great investment to date.

It so disconnected that you wonder where the the truth lies. I’m 99.997% of Lebby’s credibility. He is accomplished, respected and wields an impeccable body of work.

The market generally correctly discovers value. However, discrepancies occur, which is how money is made. The mismatch, in this case, borders on obscene.

You could have bought Bitcoin for $700.00 in 2017. Some recognized the discrepancy in that case and became fabulously wealthy.

‘Shannon’s Limit’ - an excellent reference to the father of communication theory. Shannon’s equation/ formula remains the bedrock of communication potential and limits of a channel.

I have to admit, anybody who references Shannon as an argument, automatically gets major points for just referencing the man and his work. Especially in context.