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Imo, lower price pressure is good for us. Especially if it threatens delisting from Nasdaq.
1) Allows strong longs to collect more shares
2) Scares weak longs into selling. This is good as these guys will not be around to sell into any sudden pop in price when merger is announced.
most importantly...
3) pressures the board of directors to move up the merger schedule or disclose a plan of merger before the share price gets dangerously low.
My initial prediction is playing out. Every week that we dont hear a merger in October, share price will drop 10%. This will get close to 50 cents if we dont hear anything by end of October.
I absolutely agree. Here's to the first of four possible merger mondays!
LG, you've just made my evening! Crossing my fingers for merger monday!
Thanks brother. That's why I'm getting quiet anxious. Its hero or zero for me. I'm going to keep my big mouth shut and never share another speculative idea again with anyone after this.
RD, I'm still 99% confident in the $80 billion plus value shielded behind safe harbor. I am also 80% confident that there is no large scale conspiracy where government could simply "steal it".
I hold large positions in both escrow and WMIH. Unfortunately, against my better judgement, I've let some friends in on my bet on "The Big Long". These friends of mine are late to the escrow party but did get in on some decent size bets on WMIH back in 2015 when it was above $2.50. As you can imagine, I feel terribly responsible for the paper losses they are experiencing right now.
There is currently the possibility that WMIH merger with the returning assets from safe harbor may fail. There is a possibility WMIH may have been outbid by others (potentially JPM) for the merger. Unfortunately, since Trump tax cuts are not finalized yet, any potential merger deals with WMIH would discount the NOLs due to uncertainty of future tax rate.
We escrow holders will do just fine either way but if WMIH merger deal does not materialize in October, I may not be able to face some of my friends again. I really should have kept my mouth quiet but 2015 looked so good with the statute of limitation expiring for FDIC, I really thought we would have seen the merger back then. But I guess Rosen and crew probably wanted to make sure that the POR was also bullet proof so they made us wait until 2017 when statute of limitation for "hidden assets" also expired for the bankruptcy reorg.
Now, here we are 2 years later, me a little red faced, my friends secretly thinking worse of me probably...You bet I'm a little nervous. I just dont need escrow payoff, I also need WMIH payoff.
Well, as I've been posting from the beginning, I do not believe in conspiracy theories. My bet in Wamu was solely based on my analysis of the legal grounds on which FDIC could have sold WMB to JPM for $1.9B. If you believe everything was done legally, then it is possible that there are $80 billion plus value shielded by safe harbor.
If one truly believes in conspiracy theories, then you might as well give up on any value returning from safe harbor. If you believe in conspiracy theories, then you must also accept the possibility that the government could have confiscated everything behind safe harbor protection, just like they "stole" WMB. And dont tell me about the news media blowing this up..If government and JPM were powerful enough to conspire and steal everything, under the watchful eyes of all the attornies during the bankruptcy, you can bet thay they are powerful enough to also keep the media quiet.
That being said, I am truly nervous these past few weeks because it is showtime. DB as trustee could not have been discharged from probate without releasing all the assets - assets which I'm assuming were shielded by safe harbor. The released assets must go somewhere. The longer we go from September 5th without seeing WMIH merger with returning assets or escrow payment announcement, the higher the possibility of "the conspiracy".
You have nothing to worry about me.. I'm not trying to influence anyone here and I do not have any masters. I'm just passing time on this board while nervously awaiting for the final outcome...which I believe we are really close to. I really think October is the month. I think we will be seeing joyous laughter or tears in the coming month. I just dont see WMIH surviving past October without the merger happening.
RD, not sure what this is about but I think you are wasting your time if you think I have some sort of ulterior motive here.
Thank you everyone for your responses to my Piers question. I dont own any so I couldnt verify. It seems only RONs were paid off as announced prior. I got excited when I misread some earlier posts and thought everything was paid off.
Were Piers paid off completely on Friday or only the RONs? Why am I reading some reports here that theirs were paid off completely and the Piers markers were completely removed from their account?
Can someone verify this? Piers completely paid off? not just the RONs?
What if FDIC has determined that WMIH is not the best candidate to merge with the remaining portfolio under safe harbor. Perhaps a more qualified buyer has made a cash offer for the remaining portfolio and escrow will end up getting all cash. That scenario would explain the falling WMIH share price this close to a potential merger.
B, could you please remember to ask my question regarding whether FDIC or FDIC-R permission is required for safe harbor asset release "IF" such assets existed. We dont need Janice to confirm the existence of the assets. We just want to know if such assets can be held back by them if such theoretical assets exist. Thanks again!
Yeah, thats why I qualified the question. "If" there were any safe harbor assets, do the assets need permission from FDIC or FDIC-R for exit at this time.
FDIC-R may be legally bound to not acknowlege the existence of safe harbor assets, but I'm hoping they could answer my question with regards to the procedures of how such assets can exit safe harvor protection at this time
Thank you Ron but safe harbor assets are not part of the final payment. Safe Harbor assets were shielded from bankruptcy court and FDIC-R from day 1. They were never confiscated. So when these assets return, do they belong to escrow or WMIH?
Johnny, that is awesome! Can you also please ask if there are any safe harbor assets, will their exit at this time require any permission from FDIC or FDIC-R?
AZ, can WMIH legally merge with WMI assets for shares before Piers are fully paid of?
If not then would we have to wait until Nov 1st for Piers to be paid in full first before going forward?
FDIC-R payment of $2.7B is a positive. This signifies the end of lawsuits that FDIC-R is potentially liable for. The remaining Libor suit against JPM has no liability exposure fir receivership. So technically, it should be safe for Safe Harbor assets to come out with the end of all liabilities against the receivership.
I was dissapointed at first of the lack of disclosure of safe harbor assets yesterday but after thinking about it some more, I believe it couldnt have gone any other way. FDIC-R must show legal isolation from safe harbor assets so they need to show the end game with only the purchase of WMB. Which they essentially did with $2.7B release yesterday.
I still believe the trust assets that DB probate released were part of safe harbor protection. So we should still see traces of it soon.
Looking forward to WMIH merger announcement in the next few weeks. One way or another, this is coming to an end.
FDIC disclosure doesnt add up. Where are the assets from the trusts that DB released? Shouldnt the WMB bond holders (class 17) be paid with trust assets from the probate? The 2.7 billion is only the cash in receivership from WMB sale.
Last week, Johnny found out feom Janice from FDIC receivership that they were delaying with the status update due to the loan servicers from the hurricane regions. We've determined that those servicers were the ones listed in the DB probate. So why delay if all they are going to distribute is the $2.7 billion cash on hand? They wouldnt need to deal with the loan servicers? and no need for delay.... something doesnt add up. Where happened to the assets from the DB trust probate?
Also, what the hell is the receivership going to do with just $100 million left? Lawsuits are expensive. If they are suppose to get large money from JPM over Libor, they will need much more than $100 million for lawyers.
My suspicion is all the trust assets are part of the Safe Harbor accounting and will never show up under the receivership because those assets never belonged to WMB and hence were not part of the sale transaction.
I know there are missing assets in safe harbor. What I dont understand is the process of how it will eventually return. I really thought we would see them by now with the DB probate approved. Now I'm really puzzled.
My only hope now is that they are holding bacj disclosure until WMIH announces merger with the safe harbor asset. So I'm hopeful until then...or at least until WMIH extends its financing deal next month...then we maybe waiting for another year.
AZ, I had a suspicion that all the returning assets (cash + remaining loans) could potentially return to WMIH due to tax deferral reasons (sort of like a 1031 exchange in real estate), but if such a scenario comes true, would WMIH still not legally be required to issue shares to escrow holders for the merger?
Do you still believe escrow holders still own all the returning assets? or have you discovered something else to change your mind? Please share. Thanks!
RD, you may be right. They might have just realized that Janice had just let the cat out of the bag and might be forced to disclose tomorrow morning prematurely. I hope the share prices wont pop tomorrow morning. I want to get some more shares. Got to love that greed.
Yeah, I dont think someone like Janice on the resolution team would disclose this much unless they are about to announce the end game. Although the statute of limitation for suing them has expired so maybe thats why she has let her guard down.... Eitherway, this is the glimpse that I was really hoping to see by this past Tuesday. With the WMIH merger Jan deadline coming up fast I was getting really nervous that we werent getting the disclosures that I anticipated. I never thought of the possible delay due to the hurricanes but what she saying makes more sense because of it. Maybe they were originally planning on announcing this past Monday.
Well, I dont want to start taking the victory lap prematurely but this is certainly going to make my weekend much brighter. Thanks again Johnny!
I went out for a bike ride to blow some steam and come back to this! Thank you John for sharing this with us. I was really starting to question my judgement. Faith restored.
Ron, I'm a little confused. How can WMIH negate the tax losses without directly getting back the capital gain. Also, in the scenario you are suggesting, where escrow gets the cap gain, and WMIH loses the NOLs, wouldnt that leave WMIH worthless?
Don't worry. I haven't gone rogue. Just lost my temper a bit due to a combination of external factors and latest news on this.
Ron, are you suggesting that the JPM's Final Payment directly flows to WMIH and not to escrow markers? Do you mean there is no need for shares for value exchange between Escrow and WMIH?
Yeah, maybe thats the plan all along. Figuring out how to cause massive strokes amongst all the beneficiaries with all this shenanigans so that there wont be anyone left to complain to the media.
Doc, I have a funny feeling that they will drag this out max 10 years to Sept 2018. I was really hopeful until this Tuesday. I dont understand how DB as trustee would have allowed this kind of delay in distribution. Furthermore, I am flabbergasted to see probate judge approving this with distribution being delayed to next year. Sorry, I had a mini meltdown earlier with the whole 'analysis' response from FDIC. Analysis + Committee are code words for "bend over" in government speak.
Does anyone recall the total amount of class 17 claim?
Tanj, thanks for sharing this. Now I rant...
F@#k that! Analysis!?! Analysis was all done prior to settling DB lawsuit. They couldnt have settled unless they finished their analysis. By now, they know exactly what everything is worth! Its just a matter of distribution!
What f@#king analysis?!? Is it legal analysis to see who's going to jail when they return over $80 billion?
AZ, do you think its highly likely we'll see class 17 distribution announcement by next Friday?
Also, what do you think of the odds that FDIC drag out the final distribution to end of next quarter (Dec 31)? I'm starting to think the odds might be 50/50. Which in that case, WMIH share prices might take a tumble...regardless of whether they extend the financing deal or not.
No, because DN was already the trustee pre takeover. You cant simply discharge the trustee without going through the probate court... FDIC has no jurisdiction to fire the trustee.
To all of the committed WMIH investors, imo, we should start setting aside some cash reserves for end of the year. I think there is a 20 percent chance that they will bring this down to sub 50 cents on any news of extending the Jan 2018 financing deadline. If that happens, I will be taking my last "all in" gamble on this and buy as much as I can.
Either this thing pays off or I've lost all confidence in our justice system. I will start believing in large scale conspiracies at that point.
LG, I agree with the Jan 2018 funding deadline. If for some reason, they plan on delaying this into 2018, I expect to see some sort of extension on that deadline for another year in October...but I still expect the share price to tank sub 50 cents if that extension scenario unfolds. I would not rule out this possibility if FDIC-R has the capacity to take over the duties of DB as trustee.
Does the FDIC-R have the capacity to act as a trustee to the remaining loan portfolio discharged from the DB probate?
If the answer is no, imo, we will likely see a WMIH merger announcement with it within a week or two. Escrow will also likely have to wait a month or two before we get newly minted shares from the merger.
If the answer is yes, imo, then prepare to wait into 2018. Also, prepare for sub 50 cents WMIH prices as we approach December.
Sorry, I want to remain optimistic but I cant ignore that possibility. Believe me, I am riding this out to the end but if that doomsday scenario happens, I will also be losing a significant portion of net worth.
I just cant see any other possibility of merger opportunity for WMIH this late in the game other than the returning escrow assets. With the stock market riding so high, what company would want to be "bought" by WMIH utilizing debt with nothing but NOLs to offer - especially when Trump tax cuts are around the corner.
The only way forward for WMIH is the returning escrow asset, IMHO.
Although I am 99% confident of billions in safe harbor, I am getting a little nervous this late in the game and would have like to see some sort of irrefutable proof by now. Class 17 payment is that proof. I dont mind waiting until Nov/Dec to get our escrow money but I would really like to see the proof now. I want to see class 17 payment announcement by first week of October or I'm going to start drinking.
Its Hero or a Zero time. Good luck to us all!
Ron, do you have a link to a filing for the CIC event? Also, if CIC happened, shouldnt there be a filing of FDIC-R closing out wamu receivership?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
Well, by now it should be obvious to everyone that the only future WMIH has is a merger with remaining illiquid escrow assets. They have until Jan 2018 to make this happen or all hell breaks loose...unless they get another financing deal approved between now and then - unlikely. With Trump's "lower coporate tax" promise and the current high stock prices, it is unlikely for WMIH to find a merger candidate this late in the game. I'm 99% certain their only chance now is merging with returning assets for escrow.
Any kind of filing showing returns for class 17 would prove, beyond any doubt, the existance of massive assets in safe harbor. And hence prove the possibility of billions for escrow and big possible merger for WMIH.
It is greatly annoying to always find JPM being the first one paid in all these deals. F@#k! Really!?! I'm just really frustrated. How about showing us equal timing of pay for once!
Hoping to see filing for class 17 payment before end of the month.
I concur. With DB probate done, someone would have to take over management if all the assets coming out of the trust. Unless of course, DB liquidated all the loans and FDIC is just sitting on cash. I guess that could be a possibility but not probable. I would imagine WMIH is set to merge with all the remaining loans. Thats why I cant imagine this dragging on into October without any kind of disclosure. I think if we dont hear anything by October, WMIH is going to sub 50 cents by November.
There should be a filing showing class 17 being paid off. How can DB get probate approval without distributing money to class 17?
I hope so. I'd be a lot more confident if we see release from class 17 or if DB got their 3 billion. What I dont understand is how the judge could have dismissed the case last week with only JPM getting paid. Shouldnt the case be open untill all parties got paid?
Thanks RD. I'd start worrying if we dont see a merger announcement from WMIH once Piers are paid in full.