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Yes, this friday 17, then another 1/24, then feb 21 (i think)
And/or the following conference on 1/24
I continue to consider the common as an investment - if I think I can make money, with the right risk profile, I will convert some or all pref to commons for whatever period
I have an open mind and consider various options that might financially benefit me - I recommend you try it some time... might keep your mind young in that retirement
No you cannot assume that sadly...
lol, also true
I don't need the risk of the commons. Do the math on all the dilution coming in better scenarios and what do you get to? $6-8 on common on upside. JPS offers that upside going to par, or 120% of par with penalties, then you have the kicker of a JPS conversion that rolls that amount into common anyway.
The downside of the common, in worse scenarios, is that we have a shit ton of dilution so that it still trades but is worth about what it is now... face value of the JPS, which I believe will get par at some point, avoids that
JPS contract has fixed cash amount in US dollars, that will still be there despite waves of potential dilution - that is the protection I am interested in right now... Common just has to accept dilution. That was my thought, good luck, best, potty
I don't need the downside of the common, too much money for me to take those risks. And why bother? JPS conversion offers more upside... and I will take the par on JPS at worst
Refusing to hear? THAT moves things along
If SCOTUS makes a review then they could reverse En banc - I do not want to down that road even tho I am all pref to protect against such bs
Going to be 1-2 weeks on scotus lol... Unsurprisingly taking their time on such a huge case... god knows how much time will be enough... you have to laugh
Why the big deal? Won’t change much, real fireworks are settlement, capital rule, RnRdetails...
This Friday
The change is that a settlement — and hence JPS conversion — is now on deck. That was the main motivation...
Wow, wish my 50’s would get to that price - would be $24 rattan $18-19
Amen, my friend, amen...
Correct.
the point being -- pref get converted to common, so they participate in some of that upside
The JPS will be dealt with BEFORE any consent decree in my opinion, since the conversion will be in terms of the legal settlement with plaintiffs who are largely pref holders
So (i) settlement and conversion of JPS and then (ii) we are all common-holders and enjoy common SP rise through consent decree, retained earnings and final release
BTW I am not sure whether there will be any common offerings -- money returned from settlement (45bil) PLUS already retained earnings PLUS this quarters blowout earnings (8bil?) and 8 more qaurters of retailed earnings (40bil) means a pref offering might be all the capital needed
Navy, the price of common will rise to whatever our clever Wall Street friends are plotting out as the likely price of common in a year -- and that is related to settlement, conversions, amount of dilution.
I am not sure where common price goes in the interim, maybe $4-5 at very tops?, but pref will likely follow along since a lot of the Wall Street folks think conversion is likely...
Like you say, a lot of water to go under the bridge yet -- seeing this %$#@# capital rule will certainly help -- if we ever do see it...
Agree 100%, the settlement may be chastening to many here -- remember plaintiffs in Collins asked for NWS reversal ALONE in shape of TWO remedies...
Not sure what you are refering to. I put JPS conversion at 70% chance or more, SPS conversion is much harder to say...
We have yet to hear. Monday 9.30am we may hear, or any Friday or Monday after that
Sometimes they need TWO meetings before they decide up or down on whether to hear
I wish I was a hedge fund employee - FYI if any hedge funds are looking to employ people on this board (!) then PM me and we can come to (my very cheap) terms
Trunk, try reading the Treasury plan its includes SPS conversion AND JPs conversion as options...
Donotunderstand, I agree with that thinking completely - not sure others here appreciate the dilution dangers
IMHO This is right about the last year and wrong about NOW. Let me share my thinking FYI
I bought in heavily to boost my pure common holdings at Xmas 2018 and like you say I did really well in 2019. I then just converted all common to all prefered a few weeks ago. Why?
Because a settleent looms and there could be (I) a conversion of some or all of SPS to common, increasing dilution, and (II) the JPS could well be converted to common increasing dilution of common.
Now JPS avoids that dilution by the fixed dollar amount in the contract ($25, $50, etc). JPS likely gets PAR plus (ie $25 for your present price of $10-12, $50 for your present price of $18-19) from here, so 100+% upside -- and THEN JPS likely gets voluntary chance to convert to common in settlement or RnR.
So JPS avoids some pitfalls and doubles your investment when paid out at PAR and THEN benefits to the degree the common does after settlement -- so, on the upside, it is a turbo-charged way to invest in the common with more protection on the downside.
That is why i converted all my common to prefered a few weeks ago.
Right, Tim Dillon has not posted denial and sometimes cert is granted week after hearing - so we have premature kabooms...
Premature kaboomulation if you will, happens to older men and even sailors apparently
In these cases, all the time, nothing special...
I lose track of all these figures, wasn't there another guru too?
It is a joy -- at Xmas 2018 FNMA was $1, today $3.40... SOOOO MUCH FUN
You are a slow learner, get with the program
Breitbart and John Carney - the perfect marriage, does anyone bother reading that troll?
Nats, I do not believe MC is involved in SCOTUS, so that timeline *may* be mistaken...
Mark is just projecting
Donot, I see the JPS as having a good chance of convertig to common, so has less risk, more upside cos JPS up to par AND THEN convert to common to get that upside... or at least the chance
It really is a strike against BO. I can accept Geitner was a necessary evil in the crisis, but what the crowd in housing did with FnF is mystifying... One day it will come out and no one will care except we few...
Donot, yes, some very big questions yet to be answered...
What do the businesses look like and how profitable?
How many shares? From SPS conversion (if any)? From JPS conversion (if any)? From warrants (if any)? From IPO (if any)?
Going to be long six-eight months before we probably know those answers... I better calm down and move on to other things since my investment is made. ($50 prefs of FNMA and FMCC split evenly..)
All those reported short volumes must be something else then, lol
Sweeney had a deadline for the parties in her cases to report back to her on Jan 10th
Ruud, thanks, but now you are making me more worried -- you think FHFA is going to take advice on the draft capital rule from a Financial Adviser they have NOT YET HIRED? I can then see why 4-6 weeks is what you suggest, but even that is optimistic, no?
UF-John, I agree about the judges -- Judge Ginsberg gave us imho a shameful, shocking form of Rorschach jurisprudence...
Nats, I agree with almost all of that -- I hope you are right. I am fully invested in FnF in my non-retirement accounts, so I like to think things through as much as possible. This is also why I am all pref, I have too much invested to be too speculative...
Fingers crossed, if they mess-up on to Judges Atlas (Collins), Lamberth (forget the case lol) and Sweeney (Fairholme) in 2021...