Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
OT I need phone# for TD Ameritrade - Anyone?
I have an account but don't use it much and never had to call them. Anyone have a number I can call to talk to a "real" person?
Thanks,
Kipp
researcher59 - HudBay - AMEX
This is what I know from Bob:
Posted by: Bobwins
In reply to: None Date:4/24/2006 3:37:57 PM
Post #of 43443
Talked with IR at HUDBAY Minerals to ask about possible AMEX listing so more of you would feel comfortable buying it. He said CFO and CEO were in NY twice in the last 4 weeks to present to brokers and investors. There is an agreement with AMEX for Toronto listed stocks that makes it easier for them to list on AMEX quickly. IR said it's not been decided but it's on the table for discussion and they would have to analyze whether it would be worth it to the company to list on US exchange.
So it's available but no time frame. I also asked about why they did a 20 million PP. Seems like they have lots of cash(buying back debt for 31 million) and cashflow has to be increasing with commodity prices. He said they are also looking to expand in both exploration and possibly acquisition to increase reserves and production. Their goal is to be debt free this year and the 20 million may allow them to use the cash on hand for that purpose while still having a decent exploration program.
Q1 financials due out 5/12/06 so we will see then how the increased commodities prices affected the bottom line. I am expecting more good news. Bought more shares today at around 11.30 US$. EZM was up 2% today while HUDBAY was off 3.7%. Not sure what impact the warrant offer had on shares. I still think the fundamentals here are very positive. US$20+ by Xmas 2006. Bobwins
HudBay Earnings Rock!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060512/200605120327333001.html?.v=1
The next few Q's will reflect big increase in metal prices.
Hope they get dual listing on Amex completed soon
Kipp
Bobwins - mold
Your mold gets thicker than mine, probably more like blue cheese. I do let a thick layer grow and then I look for fresh host. For instance I sold my long term MDF at $2.88 to buy VPHM at $4.65. When VPHM got nice and green I sold it to buy SeaDrill.
Do you still have all of that $.50 TGA? Bet it's really gooey green and stinky by now!
"Buy and mold!" you coined it!
Good Luck!
Kipp
Bobwins - I have 1 question for you today
Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it? Why didn’t I buy more Petrobank Energy And Resources Ltd. (PBG) when you recommended it?
ARSD.PK Anyone have a guess to earnings report.
I still have some shares in this strange little company (that many here don't like). They are still fully reporting and are still paying on Saudi mining claim. Should make a profit on low nat gas prices. I think management is "challenged" to say the least!
I gotta have one wild card in the deck!
We shall see.
Kipp
cl001 - Do you think Cramer really has that much pull on stock prices. Perhaps overnight, but I'm not ready to say he is the be all end all for my stocks.
cl001 - EZM swing trading
You have done well swing trading EZM. I wish I was as good as you are at it. I am more of a Bobwins "buy and mold". I still have all of my EZM shares at $1.24 avg. I am going to hold all until the picture changes. It is still early in the move. I think we are going to have a huge bubble that will some day pop but it is year(s) off.
Good Luck to you and keep posting!
Kipp
60 days ago copper $2.20 now $3.90!
60 days ago zinc $1.05 now $1.72 per pound!
MSGI - The big metal price moves have been in the last 60 days. It will show up in Q2 and Q3. You need to go to www.kitcometals.com and study the 60 day price charts. EZM has no zinc hedges because they have no production yet (that's a good thing!). I predict here today EZM blowout 3Q 4Q and MONSTER 2007. Zinc will be the HOT metal from here on out. HudBay will follow the same path.
Good Luck!
Kipp
Zinc = $1.71/lb !!! What will the price be when the last 250,000 tons in the LME inventory gets to ZERO? EZM and HudBay both have new zinc production soon. It is still early for these two miners.
Zinc price rocket, up to $1.60/lb today!
Seems parabolic but the LME inventory will hit zero in 5-6 months or sooner when panic sets in.
Let the hoarding of metals begin!
China Vows to Build Strategic Mineral Reserves
2006-05-10 10:44:00 Bloomberg
China aims to build up strategic reserves of minerals such as uranium, copper and aluminum to help meet rising demand and provide a buffer against supply disruptions, the Ministry of Land and Resources said.
The nation aims to have ``sufficient reserves'' of uranium, and will start to build stockpiles of copper, aluminum, manganese, tungsten and other minerals in the next few years, the ministry said in a statement on its Web site, citing a five- year government plan. The term ``sufficient reserves'' was not defined, and there were no specific targets for the eventual size of the mineral holdings.
China, the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper, aluminum and other metals, is building up the reserves to ensure stable supplies for its economy, which grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter. The growth, the fastest rate among the world's major economies, has contributed to a surge in many metal prices to records this year.
China has already announced plans to begin building up a strategic oil reserve as early as this year. The government has also urged companies such as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the world's second-largest alumina maker, to secure raw materials overseas to make sure the nation's metals needs are met.
The government and companies will jointly invest to build up the mineral reserves, the statement said. It didn't specify how the reserves will be managed.
China's State Reserves Bureau currently manages the nation's commodities reserves, including copper and steel. The Ministry of Land and Resources' Web site statement was dated April 28; it was unclear when it was first posted online.
The ministry said it will step up domestic exploration and increase the country's proven reserves of iron ore by 5 billion metric tons; of copper by 20 million tons; and of bauxite by 200 million tons by 2010. Bauxite is used to make aluminum.
Zinc Inventory headed for ZERO!
Where does anyone think the price of zinc is headed. What happens when people who MUST have zinc start hoarding it? Can the auotmakers skip galvanizing car bodies so they rust through in 2 years? Get ready for a price spike caused by panic hoarding!
HudBay results and cc Friday
Link: http://cnrp.ccnmatthews.com/client/hudbay_minerals/release.jsp?actionFor=592549
EZM - Look at the copper chart!
How can EZM have a bad earnings report and outlook with 2/3rds unhedged and increased production. Zinc revs start in July.
EZM - Still has room to run
Here is a direct link to the news this morning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060509/0127978.html
Now, in addition to increased production of copper, monster increase in copper price, addition of zinc production at exhisting mine, monster increase in zinc price, addition of NEW zinc mine, EZM announces core drilling results and we need to add INCREASED RESERVES to the list. This is going to be the monster stock for me this year and I think it is still early. What would EZM be worth in a buyout?
Earnings and cc are out in the morning.
Here is a repost of my DD on EZM for anyone that missed it:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10976421
Also:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10982607
The only problem will be if they run into delays at Aljestrel, then it might act like TGB did, but to a lesser degree due to exhisting production.
Good Luck.
Kipp
EZM -$6.00+ Estimated impact of new zinc production
I have been wanting to do this myself but didn't find time, copied from yahoo.
" Estimated CU production in 2006 at Neves Corvo 200,000,000 lbs.
36% hedged at $1.60 = $115,000,000
64% unhedged. at ???? I'll say $2.75 = $352,000,000 (this may well be higher given that copper is almost at $3.50/lb right now!
Total Revenue = $467,000,000
Cost per pound for copper….
In their original conference call they said that they expected this to improve further.
However, this may have been before oil was at $72 a barrel. So I shall assume their costs stay the same. Note that this cost somehow takes into account credits for zinc and silver that they also produce. I have no idea how to get to that number. Hopefully, the increase in these metal prices will more than outweigh the increased costs for fuel. This cost does include the smelter operations if I am not mistaken. $.76 /lbs x 200,000,000 = $152,000,000 in operating costs
Hence we have operating profit of $315,000,000 FOR COPPER
Now onto the Zinc.
NEVES CORVO:
If I recall correctly they said that they will produce 25,000 tons of zinc at Neves Corvo this year. Production starting in July.
25,000 metric tons x 2200 lbs = . 55,000,000 lbs of zinc produced at Neves Corvo in 2006.
How much will it cost per pound? Who knows…. And its hard to guess. This is because of how they do credits with other metals. The new press release for the production at the Aljustrel mine says that it will cost $0.46 a pound. However, this is with credits for silver and lead. I will just guess..and lets say it costs $0.80 cents a pound straight up for zinc at Neves Corvo. If anyone knows better please advise. Maybe we could borrow a figure from another miner just for the purpose of estimation.
Zinc is trading at $1.50 on Kitco as I type this. From everything I read there is supposed to be a real supply crunch in 2007 and 2008 for zinc. So unless there is a terrible disaster in the world economy, I think the price should remain at this level.
The numbers: 50,000,000 x $1.50 = $75,000,000 in operating revenue for zinc, 50,000,000 x $.80 = $40,000,000 in operating costs for zinc, $35,000,000 operating profit for Neves Corvo Zinc.
Aljustrel
Aljustrel says that they will ramp up to produce 170,000,000 lbs of zinc a year at a cost of $0.46 a pound. Using the same $1.50 number for price this means we get an operating profit of $176,000,000 for Aljustrel zinc.
OVERHEAD
Now subtract the nasty expense stuff mostly just copying 2005 income statement numbers. Assume expenses go up 25% from 2005 given the new operations and undertakings. However, they do have a one time tax charge of $34,000,000 to pay in 2006. So say expenses are $70,000,000 which is roughly 25% more than 2005.
THE BREAKDOWN PER SHARE
Total Operating Profits: $526,000,000
Earnings before taxes (Operating Profit Less Overhead and Admn): $456,000,000
Income tax is at 27% - income after tax = 332,880,000 / shares outstanding of 523,613,000 = .635 profit per share.
So at current prices of $2.70 that's a forward P/E of about 4.25
If you put the P/E at 10 you should have a share price of $6.30
Of course this analysis is quite rudamentary and I would be happy for anyone to attack it. I was especially weak with the expenses but I tried to be conservative. I simply don't know what would be reoccurring costs.
Their 2005 income statement is on page 28 of their annual report if you want to look at the numbers yourself."
EZM - Best zinc DD I ever posted.
If you want to know about EZM and the huge earnings they WILL post over the next few years, please read these old posts I made to Len. Look at the graph showing increase in zinc production. Zinc is going to go through the roof as the inventory in LME warehouse WILL reach ZERO.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10005958
(Zinc inventory is down another 100,000+ tons to 250,000 total tons since I made this post 60 days ago. Inventory may hit ZERO by September!)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10006128
(This is the key to EZM and now that Aljesrel is going to happen this is what you need to understand and why I am holding EZM long term)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10006321
(Zinc price history and why "it's different this time"
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10008615 (Important to understand)
I predict many people will sell mining stocks way too early because they don't understand what is going on. I hope this helps some of you decide if you will hold, trade, or sell EZM.
Kipp
EZM and "BP"
Great news today on Aljesrel Mine and earnings and cc next Wednesday.
When I get home tonight I will get set up in my home office and have a little "BP" as my wife calls it, get my calculator out and try to figure out what all that new zinc, lead and silver will mean for EZM.
What is my wife calling "BP" you ask.....why it's "Business Pornography"......playing with all these big numbers makes my wallet hard!!!!!
Good Luck EZM holders!
Kipp
EuroZinc to Re-Open Aljustrel Zinc Mine
Thursday May 4, 1:54 pm ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 4, 2006 -- EuroZinc Mining Corporation ("EuroZinc or "the Company") (TSX:EZM.TO - News)(AMEX:EZM - News) is pleased to announce that Empresa de Desevolvimento Mineiro, S.A. ("EDM") has received approval from the Portuguese government to proceed with signing the addendum to the agreement regarding the purchase and sale of the shares of Pirites Alentejanas, S.A., the operating company that owns the Aljustrel mine (see February 27, 2006 News Release). On the basis of this approval, the Company will commence immediately with the development required to bring the Aljustrel mine into production.
ADVERTISEMENT
EuroZinc's Country Manager in Portugal, Joao Carrelo, welcomed the ratification of the Term Sheet as "further evidence of the Portuguese Government's clear support for EuroZinc's decision to resume mining operations at Aljustrel." Mr. Carrelo also stated that "all other stakeholders had also actively contributed to this achievement" and that "the belief and investment of EuroZinc and its shareholders in the project over the past five years has made all of this possible." He added that, "the Aljustrel mine is expected to bring greater strategic breadth to EuroZinc and contribute to shareholder value enhancement, while reinforcing sustainable development both regionally and nationally."
EuroZinc recently completed an update of the Aljustrel Project Feasibility Study dated March 31, 2006 (filed on SEDAR as a NI 43-101 compliant Technical Report). The updated report documented a number of recent studies and allowed for the completion of a new economic analysis of the project.
The recent work includes the following:
- Underground drill program (6,703 metres in 65 holes) at the Moinho deposit
- Updated resource estimate of the Moinho deposit by Amec Americas Limited
- Modified mine design and ore delivery system for the Feitais deposit
- Metallurgical test work completed by G&T Metallurgical Services Ltd.
- Process plant engineering by Outokumpu Technology Minerals, Oy.
- Updated capital and operating costs, and forecasted long term metal prices, treatment charges and exchange rates
Key parameters of the new economic analysis of the Aljustrel project are as follows:
- Capital cost: US$ 88.3 million
- Average operating cost: EUR 24.84 (US$27.32) per tonne
- Cash cost of payable zinc: US$ 0.46 per lb. per net of by-product
credits
- Annual average production: 176 million lbs. of zinc, 40 million
lbs. of lead and 1.2 million oz. of
silver per year
- Minimum mine life: 10 years
The updated study assesses the project in the context of the current economic environment and summarizes improvements achieved in the mine plan and process plant. The Company's objective is to ensure that the Aljustrel mine will be a viable, long term project---not just at the current robust commodity prices---and will continue to benefit EuroZinc's shareholders and the local economy of the Alentejo district of Portugal.
EuroZinc plans to finance the Aljustrel project through a combination of debt and the Company's own cash. A mandate letter has been signed with a major European bank to provide the debt portion of the financing. The Company will fund the project immediately with its own cash while the debt facility is put in place. EuroZinc also expects approval shortly of European Union interest free loans and grants of up to EUR 18.3 million (approximately US$23 million). The anticipated start-up date for the mine is mid-2007, once the modifications to the mill have been completed. During the first year of operation ore will be processed from the Moinho deposit, and in the second year and onward ore will be processed primarily from the Feitais deposit.
EuroZinc is a Canadian based mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and mining of base metal deposits internationally. In addition to the Aljustrel project, the Company currently owns the Neves-Corvo copper mine and has a significant exploration land package on the Iberian Pyrite Belt, all in southern Portugal.
Certain of the information contained herein constitutes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995 of the United States. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of EuroZinc Mining Corporation to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, metal price volatility, economic and political events affecting metal supply and demand, fluctuations in ore grade, tonnes of ore milled, geological, technical, and mining or processing problems. Although EuroZinc Mining Corporation has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause actual results not to be anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, prospective investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
The TSX and AMEX have not reviewed and do not accept responsibility for the adequacy or the accuracy of this release.
Contact:
Contacts:
EuroZinc Mining Corporation
Colin K. Benner
Vice Chairman & CEO
(604) 681-1337
EuroZinc Mining Corporation
AJ Ali
Executive Vice President & CFO
(604) 681-1337
EuroZinc Mining Corporation
Ron Ewing
Executive Vice President
(604) 681-1337
(604) 681-1339 (FAX)
EuroZinc Mining Corporation
Troy Winsor
Investor Relations Manager
1 (888) 225-9662
Silly Beaver
Our goal here:
"Overall, the Goal of VALUE MICROCAPS is to encourage sharing of good information by honest posters. We strive for a Win/Win situation where all of us gain by sharing information in a trusting environment. While internet investing can be competitive and individual,we have proven that sharing good information is profitable and personally rewarding.
Good luck in your investing, Bobwins"
You CAN make a fortune here.
OT - Magnitude-8.0 Quake Strikes Near Tonga
By RAY LILLEY Associated Press Writer
© 2006 The Associated Press
WELLINGTON, New Zealand — A magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck early Thursday near the South Pacific nation of Tonga, and a tsunami warning was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
A warning said it was possible a tsunami could hit Fiji and New Zealand. Police in Fiji and Tonga said there were no signs of impact from a tsunami.
Speaking about the time a wave was forecast to reach the islands, police spokesman Mesake Koroi in Fiji's capital, Suva, said there had been no immediate reports of a tsunami.
A police officer in Tonga's capital, Nuku'alofa, said there were no immediate reports of damage or a tsunami.
Another officer in Neiafu, 180 miles to the north, said the quake was felt for about 90 seconds.
"It was strong but not long," duty constable Salesi Baongo said.
Asked whether the tsunami warning had been received, Baongo said, "No, we haven't heard about it."
The temblor, classified by the USGS as a "great" quake, struck 95 miles south of Neiafu, Tonga, and 1,340 miles north-northeast of Auckland, New Zealand. It occurred 20 miles beneath the sea floor.
The U.S. National Weather Service warned that a tsunami could strike Fiji as soon as 1:13 p.m. EDT Wednesday and New Zealand by 2:21 p.m. EDT Wednesday.
The U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said it was not known whether the quake generated a potentially deadly giant wave. It issued the warning for Tonga, Niue, American Samoa, Samoa, Wallis-Futuna, Fiji.
A tsunami advisory was issued for Hawaii, but the warning center said the earthquake, based on historical records, was not sufficient to generate a tsunami damaging to the Pacific coasts of the United States and Canada, and Alaska. Some areas may experience small sea-level changes.
Tonga _ a 170-island archipelago about halfway between Australia and Tahiti _ has a population of about 108,000 and an economy dependent on pumpkin and vanilla exports, fishing, foreign aid and remittances from Tongans abroad.
It is ruled by 87-year-old King Taufa'ahau Tupou IV, who is ailing.
On Dec. 26, 2004, the most powerful earthquake in four decades _ magnitude 9.0 _ ripped apart the Indian Ocean floor off Indonesia's Sumatra island, displacing millions of tons of water and spawning giant waves that sped off in all directions.
The tsunami left at least 216,000 people dead or missing in a dozen nations.
Fiji, a South Pacific country made up of more than 300 islands, a third of which are inhabited, is regularly rattled by earthquakes, but few cause any damage or casualties.
cl001 EZM news
I can't find this news posted anyplace else. May get a delayed reaction when/if it gets to news wire?
Commodity prices seen falling 50%
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/5/2/business/14119796&sec=business
MELBOURNE: Commodity prices may fall by as much as 50% over the next two years, led by copper, cobalt and alumina, Australia's Access Economics said, citing a poll of brokerages and research companies.
Prices of copper, nickel, zinc, aluminium and tin were expected to peak over the “next few months'', and then decline, said Canberra-based Access Economics in an e-mailed statement. Access Economics did not reveal which analysts it polled.
Copper, zinc and oil have surged to records this year as investors bought commodities to diversify from stocks and bonds, and as concern over supply disruptions increased. The money in commodity index investments may rise 38% to US$110bil this year, Barclays Plc has estimated.
Copper prices have more than doubled on the London Metal Exchange from a year ago.
German penny coins sift through the fingers of a worker at a copper refinery in northern Germany in this file photo. - RUTERSpic by Christian Charisius
“Copper prices soared to new record highs in April as supply fears surfaced and stocks reached their lowest level in around 10 years,'' Access Economics said. “Copper prices are now seen as the most overvalued when compared with current prices.''
Copper, used to make wires and pipes, may fall by almost 50% over the next two years. Alumina, used to make aluminium, could drop about 40%. Lead may fall by more than 30%, while coal, oil, aluminium and nickel could fall by more than 20%.
Analysts revised up their long-term prices by 6%, Access Economics said.
An Access Economics survey in July last year said commodity prices could fall by as much as 49% between June 2005 and June 2007. Then, it had polled 11 analysts including from Citigroup Inc and Deutsche Bank AG. – Bloomberg
Commodities collapse tipped
The wall of worry will make base metal prices a volitile situation.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18995710-643,00.html
Commodities collapse tipped
Andrew Trounson
May 02, 2006
COMMODITY prices were likely to peak this year and were primed for a fall of up to 50 per cent, analysts warned yesterday as resource stocks again jumped sharply higher.
The gold price hit a 25-year high at $US661.10 an ounce, sparking fresh buying of mining stocks, despite a warning from Canberra-based Access Economics that metal prices are poised to start dropping steeply from the end of the year.
Gold shot up on the back of growing fears over the nuclear standoff between the US and Iran, and expectations that US rates are on hold.
The local stock market was led higher by resource and gold stocks, the All Ordinaries finishing 48.2 points higher at 5255.2. The Australian dollar rose nearly half a cent to US75.95c, its highest close since October.
However, this year will be as good as it gets in metal markets, according to Access's latest quarterly survey of 10 forecasters. Booming copper prices are forecast to fall about 50 per cent over the next two years, with other base metals to fall 30-40 per cent. Gold is forecast to be averaging $US564 an ounce a year from now. So far this year copper is up about 60 per cent and zinc close to 70 per cent. At the same time, there are warnings the soaring metals prices could reduce demand as consumers turn to cheaper substitutes, such as plastic for copper tubing.
Access said it was slightly more pessimistic on the outlook for prices than the forecasters, noting that despite strong demand from China and in the future India, new mine supply is set to catch up with the market. "Access Economics are price pessimists for the medium and longer term. China's demand growth is here to stay, as will India's to follow ... but price will ultimately be determined not by demand, but by supply costs and sustainable margins."
Analysts have been forecasting an imminent pullback in prices for months only for prices to break new highs as new mine output ramps up only slowly, and investment funds increasingly buy into metals. And as prices rise, forecasters are continuing to hike their long-term price projections in a sign that a cyclical pullback will be shallower than previous cycles. Access said analysts had raised their long-term prices by an average 6 per cent during the last three months. Goldman Sachs JB Were recently warned that metal demand could be threatened by high prices as consumers turned to substitutes. It estimates that as much as 20 per cent of world copper demand could be threatened by substitution if prices continued to rise for an extended period. It noted plastic was being increasingly substituted for copper in pipes, while the use of copper wire in electricity transformers could be threatened by aluminium.
"Unofficially, we understand that at least one major industry association now considers plumbing tube to be a lost market for copper," GSJBW said, noting that last year the European and North American plumbing copper tube markets fell by 75,000 tonnes in favour of plastics.
Bobwins - HudBay just hit $15CD
Thanks for posting your feelings on HudBay. I sold a bunch of DNO.OL that I had a long term hold on and rolled it in to HudBay around $11CD. I am now nearly 80% invested in CD$ and NOK in base metals, O&G, and O&G Service.
I checked out Petrobank and looked at their website. Would you mind pointing out what all you see as upside to Petrobank. Looks like yesterday's news has it breaking out after long flat line. I hate to jump in and chase but I could be persuaded!
EZM should post 1Q at any time. Hope they reaffirm zinc production will start in July. Also, new Aljesrel zinc mine for 2007. Zinc around $1.50 will be huge for them!
Thanks!
Kipp
Len, do you have the combined PSL1 & 2 combined standings for each individual that participated in both contests?
Thanks for everything!
Kipp
pmaca - look at this link:
http://www.kitcometals.com/
It looks like Kitco had some bad numbers at some point and they are correcting them now?
Thanks, it's early!
Kipp
Copper Heads for Largest Monthly Gain Since 1987 on Disruption
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Copper headed for its biggest monthly gain in 18 years as workers at a Chilean mine voted to strike, adding to global supply disruptions.
Workers at Falconbridge Ltd.'s Lomas Bayas mine decided yesterday to walk out on May 2 after their Canadian employer rejected demands for a pay increase. Output has been lost during a monthlong stoppage at the La Caridad mine, owned by Grupo Mexico SA. First-quarter output was lower at Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine because of lower-grade ore.
``The supply side is only going to continue to suffer from disruption,'' said Kevin Tuohy, a trader at Man Financial Ltd., one of the 11 companies trading on the floor of the London Metal Exchange.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose $110, or 1.6 percent, to $7,165 a metric ton as of 11:42 a.m. local time. The metal, which traded at a record $7,385 a ton on April 26, has gained 33 percent this month, the biggest monthly increase since November 1987.
Lomas Bayas produced about 63,000 tons of copper last year. The strike would probably reduce output by half, mine union president Elias Andronico said in an interview.
``Strikes, low grades, and other production problems have plagued the copper industry and are likely to continue to be feature of the market for the next several years,'' said UBS AG analysts led by Daniel Brebner in London, in a report today.
Production Shortfall
Copper demand this year will rise 6 percent to 17.8 million tons, beating production by 200,000 tons, UBS said. Consumers may have to rely on stockpiles to fill the shortfall. Inventory monitored by commodity exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai has dropped 13 percent this month to 168,278 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The production deficit forecast for copper and other metals is attracting buying from investment funds, which are betting commodities will outpace other assets such as stocks and bonds. Investments in commodities may exceed $120 billion by 2008, compared with $80 billion at the end of 2005, Barclays Plc's commodity research director Kevin Norrish said April 26.
The increase in speculative buying has left the metal overvalued, according to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's second-biggest copper smelter.
``Sales of copper aren't expected to decline, but the current price is not reflecting the actual situation of supply and demand,'' said Naoki Tajiri, general manager of Sumitomo Metal's finance and accounting department. ``Copper is trading in the $7,000 a ton-range now, but about half of that price is because of investment funds. They'll eventually back out of the market, which will drive down prices.''
`Some Correction'
Aluminum also gained on the LME, rising $37, or 1.4 percent, to $2,777 a ton. The metal, which is used to make beverage cans and car parts, has soared 22 percent this year. It traded on April 26 at a 17-year high of $2,845.
``At some point, we expect there will be some correction from cyclical highs that we are seeing now,'' said Richard Evans, chief executive officer of Montreal-based Alcan Inc., the world's second-largest aluminum producer. ``One reason is simply currency; the weak U.S. dollar means that everything denominated in U.S. dollars is worth more in dollars.''
Among other metals for delivery in three months on the LME, zinc was $28 higher at $3,220 and tin gained $90 to $9,300. Nickel dropped $25 to $18,775 and lead was unchanged at $1,215.
Kitco shows huge zinc and copper spike?
I am wiping my eyes and gulping coffee, my screen shows copper up $.44/lbs. Also big red letters that say due to technical difficulties the prices being posted are incorrect?
Anyone else have quotes from another source?
Thanks,
Kipp
UBS Sharply Increases Metals 2006-07 Price Forecasts
LONDON (Dow Jones)--UBS has sharply upped 2006-07 base and precious metals forecasts, reflecting stronger than expected investor inflows and "anemic" supply response, with cash copper prices now forecast to average 264.7 cents a pound, up 35% on UBS' January forecast.
This equates to $5,836 a metric ton, while copper for three-month delivery is currently trading at $7,165/ton on the London Metal Exchange.
A Man A Woman
A Man A Woman
For 2007, UBS forecasts cash copper prices to average 265.0c/lb, or $5,842/ton, up 71% on the previous outlook, given "the increased capital flows moving into commodities markets and our expectation of sluggish supply response to high prices given the cost and risk challenges facing project developers.
"Fund flows into commodities as an asset class has been more vigorous than anticipated, driven by strong underlying fundamentals supported by a broad questioning of the value of the US dollar," UBS said.
On the supply side, weather-related difficulties in Australia cut Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) first quarter production figures, while strikes impacted copper output and political unrest temporarily halted Inco Ltd.'s (N) Goro project in New Caledonia.
Meantime, low grades have resulted in lower expectations for output from the giant copper-gold Grasberg mine in Indonesia, UBS said.
For cash aluminum, UBS predicts prices to average at 126.2c/lb, or $2,784/ton, and 127.5c/lb for 2007, or $2,812/ton. LME three-month aluminum is currently trading at $2,781.50/ton.
"We believe that the recovery in aluminum prices has been largely a function of continued fund flows into the commodity asset class, bolstered by firm global demand prospects and the growing possibility of supply disruptions later this year," UBS said.
Cash zinc prices, up nearly 80% since the beginning of the year on the LME, are seen at 165.4c/lb, or $3,649/ton for 2006, up 65% on the January forecast and at 185c/lb or $4,081/ton for 2007, up 95% on the previous outlook.
"Improving fundamentals are no better reflected than in the highly visible inventory levels on the LME. Inventories of refined zinc in LME warehouses currently total 266,000 tons compared with 394,000 tons at the end of 2005," UBS said. Around two-thirds of these stocks are held in LME warehouses in New Orleans, which were damaged in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, UBS added.
The cash nickel forecast is up 15% at 761.2c/lb, or $16,794/ton for 2006 and up 40% for 2007 on the previous forecast at 765c/lb, or $16,878/ton.
Base metal forecasts LME cash, in cents a pound.
2006 2007
Copper 246.7 265.0
Aluminum 126.2 127.5
Nickel 761.2 765.0
Zinc 165.4 185.0
Lead 59.0 57.3
Precious metals, in dollars an ounce.
2006 2007
Gold 630 750
Silver 13.42 15.00
Platinum 1,100 1,200
Palladium 350 420
Donald Coxe - April Nesbitt Report Out!
I have been checking their website for this about every hour. They just released the April report. Usually a good read:
http://www.harrisnesbitt.com/bresource/basicpoint/default.asp
Kipp
Is Friday's close the official end?
ERS Short
I was a pre IPO investor in NGS and converted 10's of thousands of warrants to stock. The same thing happened to NGS that is happening to ERS and the IBD momo hype. I bailed at an average of $24 and NGS rocketed to $39.99 for about 5 minutes, then dropped like a rock. I may try to join you for a few short shares.
Look at this chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ngs&sid=0&o_symb=ngs&fre...
Kipp
Bobwins - Old Raging Bull Post
I ran across a plug for the old VMC board on Raging Bull, almost 2 years ago to the day! I made this post on the SANZ board on RB:
By: kipp440
27 Apr 2004, 11:05 PM EDT
Msg. 5 of 8
(This msg. is a reply to 4 by joex17.)
Jump to msg. #
Joe, what else do you follow? How did you get here? Seems really strange to be the only 2 people looking at 50 million in revs and wondering why this thing moves a few pennies a day. I like a board called value microcaps, look at my posts and you will see the link. I have a big chunk in NGS, MDPA.ob, GEXCE.
Good Luck.
Kipp
Thanks Bob, I never would have made so much money in the market had you not created this forum. I know I have thanked you several times in the past and it never seems enough.
SANZ - swb173 check this out!
Talk about frustrated! I sold a long time ago:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=BB%3ASANZ&origsymbols=sanz
EZM has Yahoo Message Board as of 4/21
Commodity Super Cycle Article
I have not read all of this yet but I will as soon as I get time.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2006/0426.html