Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ok, and I basically share your thoughts...anyway they need to do something more aggressive to cover the cost of NDA filing ( more than 1mln usd if they are allowed for the special procedure...otherwise much more).
And going back to Focalin, I think that something happened with PAR, because almost 1 year it's gone, and absoluting nothing happended (maybe PAR is voluntarily stalling)
Let's hope for some surprise (not Keppra like)
In that case they should find a medium term solution for the cash position. They are probably hoping for a further ANDA approval to come (or the Focalin reamining strenghts) but they have to give some comfort to the market regarding their cash.
I think that the Keppra approval without any following Agreement has given room for shorters to play their game.
For IPCI even a tiny amount of cash would have been considered supportive for the price of shares.
But to me the fact that they are not issuing a big bunch of new shares means that they know that something very big is around the corner...
...otherwise they are completely insane.
Another point; are we sure that there will be a partnership announcement before NDA presentation ??
If I understood the Odidis well, they will try the solo presentation and then secure the partnership from a stronger negotating point.
In case the announcement will be before NDA filing then we are sooooo close...but the shares price seems to be telling another story.
IMHO
What a strange kind of investor you are.
Just Yesterday you were predicting below 2 for next week, accordingly you should have sold your shares.
Instead not, you kept them, and now predicting 1 in the coming weeks...accordingly you will sell today at any price.
Many thanks dtst for your explanation
Hi,
which could be the implication for that '
Thanks
Hi Sprot,
so you believe that no Rexista partnership will be announced in 3-4 months ?
That could indeed happen, but you would probably agree that if Tomorrow a partnership is out (which would instantly resolve the cash problem) the stock will fly , how much depending on the value of the Agreement.
So if we give the same proability of happening/not happening we have:
50% it goes form 2.1usd to 1.4 (your target)
50% it goes from 2.1usd to ...I wanna be conservative 6-8
That's a risk/reward I'm willing to take.
if it goes to 1.7 I will buy more and much more at 1.5...then I will wait for the stock to go at just 6 or 8 to become very very satisfied with my invesment. ... well I can wait 3 yrs for that...for sure.
I think that Purdue and other potential partners are looking for an Agreement on a complete Platform (usign the exact same word Purdue did). Much more sense from a strategic/industrial point of view.
Therfore I more likely see and upfront payment + license Agreement + plus as many future installments as many new products will come out from the Platform.
Honestly 1bln upfront payments seems unrealistic to me (even for the entire Rexista-Podras-20more); buuuuuuuuttttt I will come to States and Canada to party with all of us longs...because the price would go to....40-50 ??? in 2 or 3 days
Ciao Angelo, I think that Purdue is the most fitting candidate for a partnership on Rexista-Podras for a number of reasons.
You mentioned 10bln for the entire Platform, why that amount?
I believe that whoever partners with IPCI, if the Agreement will regard the Whole rexista-podras, will setup a progressive structure of payment, based on milestones to be reached in the future, diluting the Whole amount in probably 2-3 years.
What I like about possible Purdue deal is that I strongly believe that it will lead in max 5 yrs to a complete buyout and delisting of IPCI, as is in the Purdue culture.
Would be Amazing to see the parnership announced (as Doog keeps on suggesting) before NDA sumbission... Where could the price per share realistically go according to you ?
come'on sprot...the Valeant example/comparison is ridicolous.
anyway, as I said before, since you are so convinced, just short IPCI, having the honesty to declare it on this board when you do it.
just for coeherence
If it is what you believe, then you should short or sell all your IPCI shares. According to you the company is years away from making money from its potentially best drug.
Considering they are running out of cash...it is a no brainer
TEVA has a technology called CIMA and a phase 3 drug for abuse-deterrence.
Can someone help me do understand if Rexista sould be a complimentary product for them or a competitor ?
Which could be the most likely partner for rexista ?
I think (but it is just my idea) that they already have a pre-agreement for the oldest pending ANDAs, which are by the way, potentially much more lucrative than keppra.
if not, that would be a mistake, according to me.
I was really surprised about the keppra approval being treated as an issue ...ok, it's really a small market drug, but they need cash like hell, so I would have expected them to address a partnership right away.
I also believe that they cannot afford to realize themselves one og the drug, unless they secure a partnership granted a big bunch of cash.
Now it's the time where Della Penna should demonstrate something
what do you mean with "second" ? didn't see it.
thanks
Just to clarify my thoughts;
some of the points Sprot is raising are correct.
The main issue here is cash (as I mentioned in some of my posts).
What I think is important here is to understand the investment approach:
Sprot is saying is going below 2, and sure it could go...as sure Tomorrow one of the important catalyst could materialize.
so my point is: why wait until you see 1.8 (for istance) with the risk of missing a one week pop to 6 or even 8 (just think is Pristiq was approved today).
The point is: everybody should stick with the trading strategy is more comfortable with.
what is important is where will the company be in 3 years from now...at least this is what I think
For what I know, institutions have threshold in terms of market cap.
IPCI is an ultra small cap, almost impossible to be in the radar of an institution.
Another important factor that funds manager consider is liquidity (daily turnover); if you have a stock that requires days to build up even a small positions and more importantly that requires days to get out it won't be put in the investable universe.
As simple as that
Let's take the company latest presentation and the 2 slides that you Doog recently posted on this board, concerning possible sales deriving from rexista and regabatin.
conservative market penetration projection (15%) show a total potential sales for IPCI around 1bln usd.
OK, let's be even more conservative, and consider a 7.5% market share for each of the 2 products = 500mln usd of sales.
Just taking these two products and using an ultraconservative multiple for a market cap of 2x sales we get 1bln usd.
we are now @ 57mln of market cap...
any comments more than welcome
PS
what about other markets ? canada ?
uk and australia for istance. Is it correct to expect a move in those markets as well in the future ?
Focalin remaining dosages approval is way overdue...not to say about pending ANDAs.
I think IPCI will announce a partnership on Rexista as soon as they realize that cash will be finished before any other approval from FDA.
But there's also the possibility that we get Focalin and another ANDA approval before partnership announcement...in that case will be pure fun to see the price move towards.....
..I'm dreaming double digit by end of july...
we need revenue/cash
The company is delaying as much as possible dilution with new shares, probably they were hoping for an approval other than Keppra.
but either the announce a partnership or they have to issue in the next 2-3 weeks.
I think they will wait until the last day bfore they run out of cash, hoping for something solid to come from FDA.
The fact that they don't know what to do with keppra approval sounds somewhat worrying
makes sense, just frustrated in seeing it for a second back above 3 and then....
I hope the reason of the price not staying above 3s is that the company is selling some shares and decide to go on a stand alone basis with keppra.
unreal...are we red ???
don't believe it !!
I know Doog,
just sharing
FYI the approval news hit Bloomberg terminals at 16.50 european time (1 hour ago)
Hei Doog,
what's your idea on possible market share/revenue deriving from Keppra approval ?
Based on 167Mln declared on company's latest presentation, whould be realistic to expect 10mln per year ?
can someone inform IPCI of the approval ?
incredible they still haven't issued a PR
Come on, this should make the company CF positive (as Doog says)... should be very important....
Now we could really go back above 3 in next coming days !
Would be nice to see inside the next event presentation an increased cash position, due to some shares being issued ATM during the day of Rexista BE announcement.
I think the market is just waiting to know what happens with cash to fund operations before an important upward repricing.
Hopefully the FDA burocratic dyanosaur will give us some good news >>>> approval !!
agreed doog.
I'm just saying it would be smart for them to do it, given the small cash they still hold.
Otherwise I don't find any other explanation for the amount of sold shares which are keeping the price in this range
Considering the volumes and the price I think (just IMO) they are selling some new shares the raise some cash in order face next months without any preassure on that side.
if so would be correct from a stretig point of view when negotiating the partnership....beacuse if you are running out of cash you will be in a weak position for sure.
just a supposition
I wrote Yesterday that just looking at recent day volumes it didn't seem just speculation on the way up.
Now I think that there will be more visibility for the small IPCI and that is going to be very positive.
Let's see what happen with volumes today.
Good luck all longs
could be speculation, but given the 3 day volume well above 200k shares could also mean something.
seems strange to think just of speculation based on the presentation not being posted until the same day of the event.
obviously there was some speculation in recent days, but I'm only looking at the volumes...and the last time we had a spike in volume was beacuse Domenic was buying.
I think that once one the pending ANDA will be approved (and it could even be Tomorrow) nobody will care that much about focalin strenghts
it is somewhat reassuring the fact that - so far - after 700k share in 3 days on the way up, now it took 70k to bring it to 2.14.
Hope in the second half of the day new buys will enter and finish north of 2.20.
Let's see if the recent days movement was just speculation (which I don't believe) or something more.
Good luck all longs
Christmas gift ?
Was hoping for something...but silence and no news was the 2015 rule. well the only news was the FDA show on Focalin.
I don't know if FDA is working during the next days, but I believe that if yes...it won't be for us.
I bought more when under 2. Now it's time for the newsflow to be starting.
If DellaPenna didn't buy at market prices I would currently be remarkably anxious.
let's hope that the FDA inaction won't force IPCI to raise cash with some new shares.
good luck everybody
May the Force be with all the IPCI Longs
Just wanted to know if IPCI has some oh "those" generics pending for approval, but thanks for the explanation !
Anybody knows which, if any, of the IPCI ANDAs are for "first generic drugs" according to the article posted by mantisforcs (thanks by the way) ?
Apoligies...I missed it...I was reading from my phone. More than happy to hear that.
Looking at cash positionat the end of aug (2.8MLn) and monthly cash burn (1.2Mln) they will run out of cash in mid November.
That explains the catastrophic price action since the absurd FDA behaviour on Focalin.
Unfortunately there is no clear indication of when the bioequivalence study will be submitted.
Honestly I was expecting much more for a PRE-market release decision.
Holding LONG
Thanks for your analysis.
Much appreciated.
Best,
Fabio
exactly.
I understand that there could some legal/compliance issue to manage when it comes to communication what's going on with the FDA,
but not saying anything at all just send a negative message to the market and even worse just says to the retail investors "we don't give a.... about you"
I thought that DellaPenna would have change at least a little beat this unprofessional behaviour
We need, in this order:
1 an immediate update on the Focalin bio-equivalence matter; the FDA request it's not IPCI's fault , but I think it's unacceptable not have any kind of information after more than 2months.
2 the approval of Focalin other strenghts (related to point 1)
3 the approval before year end of 1 generic
4 the announcement of a Rexista super-lucrative partnership
if this happen we could see the share price explode by jan 2016; if number 3 comes before 1-2 then we coulld see even a triple digit performance...but this would just take us where we were last year.
It's time to see our patience rewarded.
Otherwise I think that 1.50 will be touched shortly (hope to be strongly wrong !)