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Absolutely. It got a little ahead of itself last night when it popped from 15% to 20% in the final minutes. This has been a 15% or 16% pace. I guess it really is going to stick to that pace.
Or... today it is no longer the only green in a sea of red so is not drawing as much attention from people that had never heard of it. Still... I think the 15 or 16% will return. A 10:30AM EST bottom is so common for this stock and many other stocks.
Missling's automatic buying schedule was Mon,Tue of every week. He didn't buy on the Mon, Tue before the Wed news, for the first time in a while, because some moron would complain that it was improper for him to do so with insider news in his hands, which we know has a time limit of 4 days. So the 4 day limit legitimizes his purchases the prior week.
Despite all that, and the fact that insider trading is not illegal anyway, some moron did complain about his purchases before the news. Even though they were more than 4 days before the news... so he would not have had the news yet.
That moron is one of the most listened to stock advisors in the biotech space, but he will go unnamed this time. It was out of character even for him.
WWayne asked, ""CM - The outcome of the Phase 2a will determine what the best "ratio" might be if data confirms preclinical findings of synergy with donepezil. Anavex could develop a proprietary new formulation or a standard combination depending on the findings of Phase 2a."
Thoughts about the proprietary formulation?"
What I thought they meant was they will either put the optimum ratio in there own single pill (which would be a proprietary pill) or have a recommended dose of Donezepzil to be take with their dose of 273; seperate pills.
The single pill would have the advantage of being less likely to forget which matters for everyone but especially Alzheimer's patients. The two pill approach has the advantage that that they don't have to be taken at the same time, but rather, an optimum sequence might be found.
Another advantage to a single pill would be that they would have more control of pricing on the generic Donepezil side. That would help them in negotiating reimbursement with medicare. It would be less of a circus.
On that slide Anavex 2-73 is deliberately dosed low enough to show no effect on it's own, according to Missling. The purpose of that test and chart is to highlight the synergy issue with Donepezil.
At least that was Missling's explanation during the 27th Annual Roth Conference Presentation, March 2015. It is slide 18 and his audio explaining it is from 16:18 through 17:42.
I am glad you asked. That chart bothered me a great deal too when I saw it during the presentation. I heard his explanation but didn't really understand what he was saying, and was a little worried it was BS. But listening to it again, it makes total sense. That doesn't gauruntee that it is not BS, but it makes me feel a lot better. I have to decide whether to believe him, and I have chosen to believe him on this.
I was out of bullets last night so could not reply.
Trying to look at the positive side here, though I hear all the concerns. I need a couple more times around this technical block to talk about this stuff...
but if 273 reduces the formation of plaques and other problematic materials, and donezepzil helps remove them, then maybe you only take donezepzil long enough to blow out the carbon, and then for a month a year thereafter or something. But you take 273 for the duration.
But initially, if you don't blow out the carbon that built up over the last 200K miles, stopping or slowing the production of it doesn't help you much. If so, no fault of 273, but thank goodness that donezepezil already exists.
And if so, then maybe you shouldn't combine them in a pill.
For the shorts, or for people wanting to get in?
TooTall. Is there anything expected from Epilepsy between now and the end of the year?
You said it Einstein!
Can I marry AVXL? Is there a ships captain around here? I enjoy pumping it continously but I feel a little guilty the way things stand between us.
Amen to $1.xx after this Friday. We'll be in the $2 range starting next week!
Aaaamen! Aaaaaamen! A Amen Amen Aaaamen!
When is a good time to get in you ask?
Currently, AVXL's SP run is scheduled to pause for a couple hours at around $3.88 on Friday, 8/7. You should be able to buy a few shares then. After that, it's off to the races again. But maybe you should RSVP just in case.
Yes, and with the feds keeping rates down, 15%/day is pretty hard to find!
If this stays at the 15%+ daily upswing that it seems to like, then we are doubling once a week. That would put us at $4 in only 11 or 12 trading days.
But $20 overnight sounds good too!
According to this article we are currently worth exactly $4.5B which is $27/share fully diluted. But if they wait till results later this year, we will be worth double or triple that amount. At least that is how I read the article.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13232172/1/biogens-possible-takeout-targets-and-other-key-questions-after-blow-up.html
I would not have added my goofy reply Wayne if I had seen TOB's very complete response so to speak. One of those times where you are still writing while the other person posts.
It's 12:05AM in Victoria Australia where there has been 10 fold the press this weekend than out here. I wonder if we will see a big bump in 5 hours.
Green 10% in a Sea of Red again! Up 60% in a few days with IBB down 6% in a little over a day.
There is no competing patent... and they don't need Vamvakides signature... but they do need some other docs from him. That is what they have been saying all along. I get it.
I no longer see any patent issue, if I have the right application here. This application has Anavex as the Assignee. I don't think it makes any difference who the inventors are.
Even I'm listed as an inventor on a cool sounding patent, but that really means nothing. The company was the assignee. Inventor just gives you bragging rights, not ownership. Is this the right application?
If Vamvakides was going to contest ownership, he would not have listed Anavex as the assignee. Maybe I have the wrong application.
Publication number US20140296211 A1
Publication type Application
Application number US 13/940,352
Publication date Oct 2, 2014
Filing date Jul 12, 2013
Priority date Mar 28, 2013
Inventors Alexandre Vamvakides, Tangui Maurice
Original Assignee Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Export Citation BiBTeX, EndNote, RefMan
Classifications (13), Legal Events (1)
Very nice write-up!
AF is A d a m F e u e r s t e i n. He is a reporter reinvented as a biotech expert 7 or 10 years ago for J i m C r a m e r ' s purposes.
AF has a knowledgeable MD advisor from big pharma that generally leans toward big pharma. On the other hand, small cap biotech does get overhyped often, so AF probably does a lot of good. However, most small biocaps targeted by him feel he is not properly analyzing things, but more just bashing for price manipulation purposes.
Next stop $3.88? That would bring the posted cap to the $300M threshold (if posted, undiluted share count doesnt change by then) that brings out AF and a small army of his followers to protect AF's investment thesis. The thesis says that biotech's with caps under $300M never get FDA approval on their drugs.
If he doesn't appear at that point, then that is a good forecast for the mid term. Then we won't have him and fierce biotech and others fighting us. To have AF and Cramer with us rather than against us would be really nice.
I have no idea what's going to happen, but I haven't sold any shares and I am working on ways to hang on to every one that I own through the end of the year, if necessary.
Didn't mean to counter TTall's description of trading thresholds. I hadn't read TTall's post yet. The complicated details TTall describes are no doubt the better picture of what really goes on. TTall has been around. And eveyone knows that a penny stock is a stock under $1 as TTall said... except the SEC apparently.
I didn't know about this $5 penny stock definition by the SEC until last week when I corrected Captain Kirk on the issue telling him he was full of it on the $5 threshold. He responded by slapping the crap out of me in public. He's an old man, even older and fatter than I am, so I could have taken him. But I checked his link, and he was right, so I appologized, and backed off. I should have known not to argue with a man with so many talents.
The SEC puts special requirements for trading stocks with SP below $5. They define such stocks as Penny stocks. I don't understand all their requirements or know ultimately how much this deters institutions... but I did see one stock shoot up quickly to $10 after reaching $5... with the most common explanation being that it had become tradable to some category of institutions/funds/?.
http://www.sec.gov/answers/penny.htm
As far as I know the $1 threshold is not an upward threshold, but a downard threshold. You must stay above $1 to stay listed. It takes more than $1 to get listed in the first place. Different thresholds depending on which NASDAQ tier, but $3 or $4 as I recall. Has been a topic lately so can search on NASDAQ and TIER. Other requirements in addition to SP.
Read "The Old Man and the Sea". If you still don't get it... here's a hint. The fish is the old man.
Yes, I am related to Vamvakides. We are both members of the human race. Maybe you have heard of it.
But we have a voice in this.
Net Net, it's been 8 years and Vamvakides has only received $72K to date for all the patents. His menial $72K annual salary for 2 years doesn't count. He is now 73 years old, and he won't be seeing any more money for about two years, possibly longer.
We are likely to have party after party for the next two years, and Vamvakides is not invited. As investors we have a vote. We can vote to invite Vamvakides to the parties, or not. There is still a sizeable float, and execs from some of the larger investment firms might be reachable if we try.
$216K for two years work and all the patent rights, until the guy is too old to enjoy the rewards. Then he gets 6% of net.
$216K for two years work is about right as a salary for chief technical officer. It's actually the absolute bottom for mear mortals, so a luminary like Vamvakides was giving Avanex a great deal. That means that to date, Vamvakides has really received effectively no compensation for the drugs themselves.
I am likely to make more money over the next three months than Vamvakides made over the last 10 years for the patents. And I am certainly on the bottom half of this totem pole on ihub. If you feel completely comfortable with that then there is something wrong with you, period.
He could put it to vote.
Another miss in the article is the compensation for Vamvakides for the patents. He wasn't paid $200K/year as chief science officer, that was the entire R&D budget promised to him to work with. He was paid $72K/yr with a one time bonus of $72K. That apparently only lasted 2 years, so his total pay was apparently $216K + the future 6% of net. But this was 2007, and he was already 64 or 65 years old. Future net was at least 10 years away.
So why did Vamvakides leave after two years? Were the senior officers getting paid ten times what he was getting? It would be nice to know.
I am getting my numbers from WWayne's DD below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=115490618
So there is a US rule that says they don't need Vamvakides signature if there is no other agreement that says they do need it. But they haven't said that there is no other agreement. There probably isn't, but I would sure like to hear somebody say that.
And just because you can get away with screwing the old man doesn't mean you should. Do another small offering if necessary, nobody gvs a fk. Just get the aging genius a million dollars or three and let him enjoy his twilight years. Quit the pssng contest and do the right thing.
If this was a company you were not familiar with you would not completely trust the PR's and you would be looking for negatives spun positive. Such as... needing more time to show objective efficacy using standard measures spun as the patients wanting more of the drug.
I only started following the company a couple of weeks ago, so I am not that familiar with all the players. As much as I immediately warmed to Missling, it is a little early for me to completely trust anyone. But the doctor at the Australian clinic came off totally credible, even in writing. I think that outside of the developed fan base, there will be many others that went through the same thoughts and feelings.
... coming out the other side confident that this is an incredible medical advance and financial opportunity.
I hope that the extension of the phase 2AB would not necessitate a delay of the 2BA; and I don't think it would. Particularly if you believe the extension is really at the request of the patients and givers. Hearing it from the Australian doc, I do believe it.
While not slowing the trials, that extension would increase the odds of an early marketing approval, providing further safety and efficacy data both.
Wondering what your estimate is for the number of warrants remaining ipulator, but won't ask you to show your cards. Wondering if the SP hung in the 62-65 range yesterday due to a planned sell of the 30 cent warrants at a 2-bagger minimum. If so, then perhaps expect the same ranging at a little over 2 x 40 cents. Curious what percent of volume you attribute to warrants while you watch such ranging, but again, I won't ask.
Or were the 30s gone long before yesterday?
Good stuff TTall. "License to Kill"
That is a great video! Definitely sold me on watching the movie and any others from the Dalton era. Looks like a great era. What a fantasy listening to that song! I remember when the women used to fall for me. None of them remember, but I remember damn it.
After re-reading his SA article today, and his talk about the more public article tomorrow, I am pretty sure they are not the same article. I don't think the article tomorrow is the interview. More take away from the interview and other research done by the author.
So you may be getting worried over nothing. I am a tad worried too, in part because I recommended the stock to a bunch of friends two days ago. However... the odds are very good that his article will be absolutely net positive.
Moderator! Moderator!
Those Australian newspaper articles that included interviews with the doctor in charge were tremendously compelling. Shouldn't we sticky one of those articles or Circa's post #7884 which includes links to two of those articles?
People checking out AVXL might come here for quick DD.
Thank you Mr. Wayne. May I please comment on the SA article?
I will take your silence as a yes.
Some writers prefer to summarize an article at the beginning rather than the end. In this case, it would really help our (us longs) cause for the author to do so. His conclusion is very positive, but the focus on IP risk at the beginning might scare the crap out of many potential investors that don't read the article all the way through. And the middle is technical enough to lose many who will then not make it to the bright ending.
Well I wish it would hurry up and get movin. I had to do all this work this morning. Eat. Brush my teeth. Shower... and I only mad $4,000.00 for that. Hopefully things will pick up after the SA article.
I will try to be there for that. Too bad SA articles no longer get posted on Yahoo Finance pages as news. There appears to be a very large base of people that only read the titles. The title is nice!
My concern with that version of the article is that people who read only the first quarter, and then glaze over in the extended, convoluted, technical middle, will be left highly concerned about the patent issue.
TT: So what you are saying is that you were able to find 500 kwiki marts with no customers in them? I find that hard to believe.