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Forget about technical. I say an IND approval is imminent. With 1.5 mil short and apathetic volume contraction we are sure to see a pop again. I did some analysis an back tested it but everytime you get a days to cover over 7 the stock pops on average 30% in the next 30 days. The short interest has steadily been increasing. With only 17 mil shares out there we are really starting to get to healthy levels. In about two weeks when the next short interest is released I am hoping to see over 2.0 mil shares short.
I think we are still tied to ICPT. I hope with an IND approval we can break the deadlock and start trading on our own news. This collaboration is great - looks like oral uses are in the works. I didn't see ICPT do a secondary to raise more money. They must be very confident in their results.
We are now about 2- 3 months out from data. Exciting times. I really expect 20+ before data. the follow the ICPT script when the results are great.
Remember the date of 27 Dec - Well we should get an NDA announcement soon. If the FDA doesn't have any comments within 30 days then it is automatic that they can proceed ahead with the trial. I'm optimistic that there will be big money behind this and get the melanoma trial underway. So looking for more upside in the immediate run. look what happened last Jan when we got the IND announcement.
The immediate knee jerk reaction was that oh this is a negative. Hence the premarket trades lower. They must need money. With 10 mil in the bank that is simply not true. I'm glad to see cooler heads prevailed. Clearly they will not be selling shares if they feel it is undervalued. and quite frankly why would they be selling shares here when the 10X fund is providing additional liquidity. I think there is a potential news announcement in the future that they will astutely sell into. It could be an update on the trial or even a new IND. Remember the Portland guys are brewing something up. Lets see what they come up with. The refreshing point was that the discretion to sell shares is with the company not the investment firm.
I-just e-mailed them too. anyone else?
Mauldin Conference was a big dud unless a lot of people watched it and then follow up on an e-mail in the AM. Smell like an ad pitch where you sign up for the newsletter and then get the picks. We will see in the AM.
Any see that big bid of 350K at .0699? It took a while for the shorts to beat it down. They are running out of ammo again. I expect to see more big blocks as we approach the end of Oct. The bids are coming in.
huge day today - look at the bids coming in chasing it higher!
good luck longs. I'm telling you this conference today is going to be huge.
Short Interest was about 1.0 mil shares and 3.5 Days to Cover with 260K Average Volume. I smell another short squeeze brewing.
Nice find. What time do you think it got released? Waiting for the Mauldin conference on Wed. I think it could launch.
Agree with you and putting my money there. There is one factor you didn't consider. The stock is optionable so you can write calls against the position and collect premium. When it ran up I sold some Oct 12.5 for .75 bought them back today because I was concerned about the Mauldin conference and think that is going to generate some major buying.
Don't underestimate the power of Cox. I have no idea what he is going to talk about but I have to think its GALT reading between the lines. Getting that message out to Mauldin's newsletter base for 1.0 mil+ will be amazing because Mauldin never specifically mentions any stocks. So these are loyal active newsletter readers that will be exposed to individual stock ideas. I think it is going to be a spark. If we turn around today then I think we are at new closing highs Thurs after the conference.
I wish I had your e-mail so I could send you his Breakthrough technology news research report that he did. It was very thorough and detailed and explained it extremely well. If you read it - I guarantee it would change your mind. Not many stocks are doing well in his portfolio, that is probably your trepidation, but the couple that do well are amazing performers. GALT is one of the top ones.
Read my last post - The facts are that the 10X fund sold not him personally. The article says he sold personally. They have to file personally as well as through the 10X fund. You will also see Rod Martins name. there were 3 form 4 filings. That means 10X fund.
I agree with your comment about no one is more positive. 1000% agree!
Look carefully and you will see that this is the 10x Fund NOT the chairman on an individual basis. The 10x Fund is probably beefing up its warchest of cash. Remember they plan on a 3.0 mil of financing this coming year. Then a fund has SG&A too.
Next week look what is coming up!
http://tech.mauldineconomics.com/
mauldin is on the board of GALT
Patrick Cox wrote like 2 research reports on GALT
Eric Schadt - mt Sainai where they did the liver experiments
Put 2 & 2 together. How do you think they met? What do you think they will be talking about. 1.0 mil + newsletter readers from mauldin. Look at their chat boards - very active daily. So a lot of engaged readers for a once a year type conference.
October 16th - do you think this will bring in buying?
More credibility keeps pouring in. there is less and less risk as we can see that this drug is going to fail in the phase II trial. I think the Phase I approval is a foregone conclusion.
Remember I had a feeling that a research report was about ready to pop. It was trading that way and then look see the results. I have no idea who these guys are but their price target seems a little low at $13. Anyone else fee the same. Any one recall the lemmings video clips from CNBC. I see that happening with GALT. These firms are going to want to get their two cents in and I see more initiations in the cards. I have a funny feeling we are going to pull past 15 by Sept expiration because I sold some 12.5 calls today on part of my position. That's okay. If I get called out then I will get back in by buying the warrants and get more leverage. Anyone here do options. This is a perfect stock for selling puts then when it gets overextended. Sell calls buy them back and keep doing the cycle. Only issue is the liquidity in the options sucks. Huge spreads - hard to make money.
Keep an eye out for research coverage. I feel it. Anyone else feel it?
I think it will be higher too. I have a funny feeling that research analysts were invited to the presentations. So one day when you wakeup we will have a gap and a buy rating. I think this sort of catalyst will take it to $13 and beyond. It depends on their target price.
On Fire - looks like something is going down. This volume is very suspicious of good news. someone could be taking a position. The company might not need any more money so this could be a short squeeze too. It has been heavily shorted on a percentage basis recently.
The stock consolidated nicely. I thought it was going to break down but looks like it held .06. So this could be a technical bounce to new highs or the action looks like a potential large order is in the works. Anyone else want to speculate?
This stock is not trading anywhere it should be. Look you have $500/ dose per week for a total therapy of $26K vs $500K for a dangerous liver transplant plus ancillary expenses. So multiply this by 300K patients and you get 7.8 Billion in sales. Mind you that this 300K is out of 15 mil afflicted. So we are crazy low here. Lets give this drug a 5% probability of getting approved and that gives a current risk adjusted probability of $400 mil.
Now lets look at it from another way. Typically a phase II cancer drug takes $500 mil to develop. Well they have a Phase III ready cancer drug but don't want to develop it but that is what it is worth. So on that basis alone they should be $500 mil + market cap. That is a double from here.
Now lets assume they get another IND for the immunology drug for Melanoma in combination with Yervoy. What is that worth. Looking at their mice studies this is not going to be a very high hurdle to jump to show efficacy.
Each one of these pipelines could be a 10Bil + revenue stream. The thing that all of us should think about is that the company owns 100% of the licensing rights. then couple that with the paltry COGS of maybe 10% and you get some staggering earnings power.
If there is a drug that big pharma is going to pay for it is this Galectin Blocker. The cool thing is that we got two of them and we got 10 suitors. So its not if we get a drug deal but when. Big Pharma will be circling like sharks to get a piece of the action. What if we show signs of efficacy in the first cohort before we even reach a the optimal therapeutic dose? This stock is flying to multi billion land. We are potentially 6 months away from such an event. Stocks should discount future events at least 6 months down the road. I guarantee that this isn't factored in until we are at $50+
No matter how you slice these number we are grossly undervalued at these levels. As we rise in price more warrants get exercised and more money flows into the company thereby increasing the amount of money on trials and decreasing the reliance to strike a deal with big pharma and the higher the price climbs. We are in the midst of a vicious upward spiral.
Webcast was super - anyone listen to it?
Webcast 30 min
http://www.biocentury.com/conferences/newsmakers/dates/schedule
they are the last one!
That very keen analysis. Yesterday the shorts were trying to hold that line at $9.00. If you watch level II you could see it plain as day. They stacked their orders through UBSS. In 2k increments. Then it got taken out and came back under 9.00. The restacked orders but not as heavy. Then it got quiet and then they pooled them for 8K at 9.00 hoping that would defeat the buying. Then it broke 9.00 again and then closed pretty strong and then a paint at the end of the day. Today they were overwhelmed by the buying. Clearly short covering. The shorts were betting on a money deal. The longer the company goes without announcing anything the worse their hopes are causing the cover. See the shorts seem to miss that the warrants deep in the money will eventually get exercised and bring funds in the future with dilution that is already baked into the stock. The shorts were betting on the company not finding any institutional interest. WRONG. The discount model of this Drug is amazing. This has the potential to outstrip the best selling drug of all time - Lipitor. What is that worth in todays dollars? Tell that story to an institution and they are in.
That was a great move to switch to warrants. I too am an advocate of the warrants but unfortunately I have stock at way too low of a cost basis so I didn't do enough. The way for me to make money is hold the stock long term and trade the warrants and options. I have some stock about 6 years old and don't feel like capital gains. Do you know anyone in the 10X? you are dropping names like you know them.
There is very little chance of a failed trial on fibrosis but I have to tell you that the trial design is almost foolproof. Phase 1 focuses on safety so that is just a forgone conclusion. They will make it to Phase II. The question is will the biomarkers that they are measuring in phase 1 prove efficacy. We already know the answer to that question. DAVANAT is pretty closely related to the GRMD02 in terms of its structure. There is a ton of data on DAVANAT to suggest the symbiotic effect in the liver. That data is in mice but mostly humans. I have personal experience there that I cannot share in a public forum. The mice studies showed that GR beat out the DAVANAT. So one could conclude that GR is better than DAVANAT and DAVANAT is basically ready for a phase III trial but no money. Remember GR and DAVANAT both work on immunology and fibrosis. They are almost sister drugs and both considered galectin blockers.
My point is the risk of failure is nominal. Lets wait for the interim results whenever they come. That will turn the tide in a dramatic fashion. I do not share your feelings about the risk of failure. I see ZERO risk but then again you don't posses the personal experience with the drug.
I probably did confuse things - sorry. did you see they are recruiting at 5 sites and may add more. I am very optimistic. I think this little road show will raise awareness.
So do you have a sizeable stock position or just in the warrants. I have both.
Technically the chart looks pretty good too. Looks like it is prepping for a breakout.
you analysis is spot on the warrants are a good deal in the long run.
I was referring to your specific analysis that the company needs money at these levels.
You will find that these other warrants will bring in additional funds without them having to do another offering.
Looks like more profit taking. They are clearly on the road talking about how good the company is but I think people believe they are trying to raise money hence the additional sell off on the news. Its time to buy here.
Someone incorrectly keyed in the wrong price of 1.94 instead of .094 for 1300 shares then tried to fix it a couple of times.
Well Stated. This is certainly not a loser like the shorts would leave us believe. When they "put it on the table" we are going to be impressed not disappointed with the product. I believe that day of reckoning for the shorts is coming soon.
I wasn't talking about those tradable warrants. I mentioned the 10x had warrants and there are other warrant holders out there from other offerings. They are all in the money! Read through the filings and then you will see the conditions placed on each series. When you read the fine print you might see what I am talking about. But you have to do your research.
I think you responded - thank you - you are obviously not a player and have no skin in the game - now go bother some other board. There are grown ups here that want to talk about valuation and roll out strategy.
For your information he didn't invent Bluetooth - never said that. He saw the potential of it and exploited it early. That's how you make money. The inventors rarely have what it takes to make the big money.
I'm not a promoter but I'm definitely that nobody that cant read a balance sheet that is going to make a phenomenal return when that short you are fronting for on this MB has to cover.
Talk to the hand - there is no more forum here for you. Come back to us when you have a short position and don't bring it weak.
I like your analysis but its a little flawed or jaded on the money side of things. A lot of people forget about 1.5 mil warrants out there at a 5.65 exercise price. As those go deep in the money they loose their time premium and become ripe to cash out. At $15 - $20 you will see people exercising the warrants because its more advantageous to own the stock versus deal with the big spread on the warrants. There are also a lot of 10X warrants. Don't cut the 10X fund short. Who says they couldn't raise money on favorable terms if needed. What about the single investor that made a $3.0 million dollar bet? Do you think he would double down if needed?
History is holding this stock back but the word is clearly getting out to main stream brokerages and that history will be long forgotten once we are over $15 - 20.
Forget about the phase III trial. That just isn't going to happen at this valuation. What will happen is that we will get results from the Phase I. Will we get efficacy - honestly that is a foregone conclusion in my mind. This drug cures the mice while they are still being toxified. Mice studies in liver correlate very high which means what happens in mice is likely to happen in humans. This is why my confidence level is so high.
One more thing - Getting a FDA fast track in phase I is no joke. Tell me one other company that was able to do that feat. The stuff is safe and I believe we will see good efficacy if not a cure for this silent epidemic sweeping the country.
I didn't realize you were a player that is wonderful news. So now we need to know just how bad the big kid on the block is after 6-7 years. Just so we are clear my definition of player is over 5.0 million shares so if your not short that please just leave the board you are wasting all our time. My buying group alone could squash you like a bug. You have no skin in this game if you are less than 5.0 mil.
Did you meet him at the NEBA conference? And you don't think he's impressive. Have you ever used Bluetooth? Your right its not that impressive since every household in the USA has it. That track record is not impressive at all is it.
I'm not a bloke either - I came to play. How big is your short position? I showed you mine. So ante up or shut up.
you mean laughing out loud and pooping your pants because I can smell it from here. That laugh is going to turn into a cry and an epiphany of "what have I done" once they launch. I pray for you because I would not want to be in your position.
Now if you're not short and don't have money on the table please leave this board because comic relief time is over. Let the real players talk about the stock and the technology.
What's even funnier is that these shorts are betting against the guy that was responsible for Bluetooth. It all boils down to doing your homework. You really want to bet against this jockey?
Look its plain as day that you are in some way attached to this short position. You probably told everyone to sell when they should have bought. Look everyone here knows your game - you are looking for stock. Its not going to happen. If you want to cover you have to buy in the open market.
Once this software is launched you are toast with your short position. It will go viral so fast that this company will be up for sale before you can say cover. There is amazing pent up demand for this technology - please deny that and show your true colors. You are betting that the company has a product that doesn't work. That is just an ignorant bet and you should have done your homework more thoroughly. This cyber and mobile security space is hot an all over the news.
So if you are so adamant that this technology is a turd and going to fall flat on its face the best thing for you to do is shut your mouth and let it go up and up on the speculation of the launch then sell and short all you want on the launch date. After all you think it doesn't work. so if you are short you are one of the dumbest shorts out there to keep up this game at these levels. Let it run and then short is the proper play but your motives are transparent. You know it works and need to scare people to buy back your position before the launch cleans you out. Sweet dreams - reality is going to bite you in the @$$.
I saw that action yesterday and then saw a flurry of trades between the spread. Clearly someone was sitting on the orders and waited to execute it. Its plain as day that there is a big short position they are trying to defend. Good luck - once they launch to the application developers this thing will go viral very fast. There is pent up demand for this solution.
I think the valuation model is based on endpoints. If they launch to 250K application developers and lets say their installed based is 1.0 mil endpoints each which is clearly a low estimate. That is 250 billion endpoints in a matter of no time. So what do you think an endpoint is worth? If they value an endpoint in fractions of a penny the valuations on this is staggering. If they value these endpoints in pennies the valuation is mindblowing. If they value endpoints in dimes then we have a new operating system monopoly equivalent to Microsoft in the early days. Any ideas here?
I think your $1.0 billion estimate is quite low give the potential. If they are launching to app developers then I think this thing will go viral very fast. Who wants to be a victim of a hacker when they don't have to be?
I want to say first that you put together a very good post. I too have been watching level two and seeing specific market makers show 10K for size and then get pounded and pounded and not move out of the way. I also notice that these same market makers NEVER pick up any shares on the bid. They are Perma Sellers. One could make the case that they are just not showing their size when representing an offer but it is as plain as day that they are shorting. the games they play are not limited to just not moving out of the way. When they do move out of the way they go up in half penny increments. They are also splitting the duty between 3 different market makers. Have you see that?
I think your estimates are very conservative regarding the level of the short interest. Either way it will make for one heck of a short squeeze. If we get some good news it could act as a catalyst to take this into .125 - .15 area but I don't think people will be selling here. I think there is way more room to the upside based on valuation. What are your estimates of market valuation?