Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
When you loan the money at 10% with current world rates, you already know there's a high percentage of risk.
Problem is not cash burn going down big time, problem is there's little cash left at all. So they better show up any of those three supposed partnerships for Direct soon, hoping for some hefty upfront payments, or I see little chance for survival.
Two key passages:
1) About financing: "While this issue is being addressed, the Company has entered into a debt financing. On November 4, 2016, the Company entered into Promissory Note Agreements (the “Notes”) for $2.5 million principal amount. The Notes are not convertible; they have one-year maturity and 10% annual interest, with the interest payable at maturity. No equity or derivative equity securities were issued in connection with this transaction."
2) Another Nasdaq issue on repricing warrants:
On November 7, 2016, the Company received a letter from Nasdaq indicating that certain of the Company’s financing transactions did not comply with Nasdaq rules. The Nasdaq Staff had determined to aggregate a series of transactions that were completed with various unrelated parties between May 15, 2016 and October 13, 2016 for purposes of assessing whether the 20% threshold for shareholder approval had been triggered for issuances priced below the applicable market price. These transactions included repricing of existing common stock purchase warrants and issuances of new common shares and common stock purchase warrants.
The Company and its representatives are in discussions with the Nasdaq Staff regarding available avenues for remediation, and the Company intends to submit its plan of remediation to Nasdaq on or before the November 18, 2016 deadline established by Nasdaq. If Nasdaq does not accept the plan of remediation, Nasdaq may issue a notice of delisting.
Looks ready for today's take-off.
You know, there are too many perhaps around, and I do understand it. It would be nice just to get it to know straight. I am unhappy with what I believe is a low level of dialogue, that shareholders are experiencing.
Saying that holding shares at these prices is like having options with no expiration date, sorry to say, but it's extremely wrong and it shows in my opinion too much optimism, confidence and perhaps could hint some lack of experience.
Nothing wrong about it, it is just that I have a very different opinion that yours on that matter. Cheers.
Maybe you are not considering that the company didn't even release P3 results of what is their first P3 trial. Even with stellar results FDA application is not (in my opinion and experience) as close as you think.
That isn't true at all, and I am sorry to read this, maybe you are young and didn't experience enough unhappy stories in the stock market? Every time a company gets close to run out of cash, it is wise for any shareholder to start to worry.
I believe you are overly optimistic. Talking about assets, I still find it hard to understand why a late stage pharma company would need a 50M manufacturing plant while it still is quite far from commercialization.
Right now, as you can see from facts, the company coulnd't gather cash at much higher prices than current ones, and that should tell anyone something.
So either the company quickly (I estimate 3 weeks) signs some nice partnerships with upfront payments and/or is able to secure financing through some debt issuance (convertible debt for instance), or I see extreme risk of much further dilution and thus lower prices. No matter how much YOU believe in the science, there's evident risk that the stock price could head significantly lower.
I am long with the stock, but it is quite wise to stop thinking optimistically and face the bold reality.
From now on shareholders need facts, starting with the settlement of the Nasdaq issues (that in my opinion prevent many potential investors to step in), closure with no wrongdoing of the internal investigation and finally pipeline news.
It seems like anyone right now is keen to give advices around. I perceive a widespread amount of pessimism and I wonder how it could be any different after so many silent months.
Personally I wonder...how can you find such optimism when a company discloses so little info to shareholders and it keeps on rasing cash at these low levels?
Are you sure interim number hasn't been reached yet? I thought I did read the trial was coming to a end...
Who did you ask at Merck and who did you ask at Bristol?
It's still a mice trial, and it will (unfortunately) need some time before starting human trials. Moreover, it will need many years before it reaches PIII like NWBO's trial. I don't see a threat for NWBO right now, though I can see the potential for a promising future for the science.
What kiddish replies, oh my...no wonder you spend your time like this. Lol.
I am more than happy to do a single mistake in one of the many languages I speak other than my mother tongue. But while I might do one spelling mistake, you are missing the entire basis of biotech as you show not to have any clue of the usual size of a PIII trial. Start reading from here:
http://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Drugs/ucm405622.htm
Once finished, keep it up and best of luck with your DD.
I am quite wordless from a similar answer, if we can call it like that. First of all, if you really have any stake in the Co., you would be interested in any kind of news that could move the needle, but this doesn't seem the case for you and is no surprise. Moreover, calling a Ph3 trial a "small trials contract", means not only that you have done no DD, but that you didn't even go over some simple numbers available on the web in order to better understand what we are talking about. But you didn't even hear any recent presentation or Q&A CC if that is your answer. Why do people keep on posting on a message board with no clue of what they are talking about? Mistery. Now I know why some message boards are so empty of messages, that's because people don't know what to talk about. No more time to lose with you. Good luck with your DD. Greetings.
Since Kiadis' ATIR101 will initiate its PH3 trial in second the half of 2016, and the 30M 2016's PCT previously made forecast by the Co was with existing contracts, when will the Co update its 2016 forecast sales?
You miss the point that most likely they will need to raise additional cash before that data is out. How will they do it? Why don't you take a 1 year graph and tell us where do you still find such optimism...sorry, realism.
You miss the point that most likely they will need to raise additional cash before that data is out. How will they do it? Why don't you take a 1 year graph and tell us where do you still find such optimism...sorry, realism.
I admire your optimism.
So, 3 months after the Hitachi deal was announced, should it be about time to hear something more about a possible European JV? Just wondering...
And, just to get an idea, where do you think the company will find the money to eventually push the programme any further?
Did anyone hear anything about Japan yet?
At least there's someone who finally puts down some arguments, with - truth to be said - very different views than my ones, but still understandable.
I have nothing to complain on the PIII melanoma trial, besides the fact that, grant or not, with that tiny amount of available cash, I would have not gone ahead by myself, but only with a partner. Much more disappointed on how the CD34 has been handled, with the primary indication put aside too soon IMO, and now kinda having an uneasy time IMO to find a partner for CLI and CHF or, at least, it seems that partnering discussions are going ahead, but still...how long will it this take and how much needed cash it will bring? The market isn't optimist at all, othernot we would have had a different stock price movement, sounds correct?
As far as the so far signed deals, I read that you find real potential value in the deals they've made. On this side, I wonder where you find real potential as so little has been publicly disclosed. How many times have you seen a biotech company partnering a drug and not disclose financial terms? Please let me know. T1D right now represents IMO the only potential, but then again, I am very upset they have been unable to find a partner willing to put some upfront milestone payment on the table (again!).
As for PCT revenues, we still have no idea on where they will go. There's great movement toward CAR-T and my feeling is that it will take long untill the CO. gains some market share in that business area. However, with those margins and that amount of cash spent every quarter, where do you find such optimism, again? I will change my opinion when some nice partnership will be signed for CLI and for TRregs and we see a convincing JV in Europe with Hitachi for PCT. Othernot, I don't see the potential you believe in.
Interesting your last part of the post. I am not a short either, but I still want to hear about facts that bring such optimism, as I don't see any. You don't have to think that anyone who doesn't pump a stock is a short, there are also people around that every once in a while believe in exchanging ideas.
Actually I keep posting facts, I wonder why when you post facts people tend to take the talk to things that have nothing to do with facts. I am sorry you have little arguments on the matter, you might want to take a look at a YTD chart and tell us where you find such optimism.
Excessive optimism is at the base of failure in stock markets. Good luck.
IMO it is very possibile that in 6 years the Co will still be alive, however I believe it is very possible that shareholders will be extremely diluted by then. Simply put margins are too low (or sales too small if you prefer) in order to see profitability in the short to medium term if you only rely on PCT. And if you rely on the drugs in the pipeline, well, so far the partnership deals have been so extremely disappointing that, as far as the market reacted to the news, it seems they were definitely not what it would have expected.
In the 10Q they wrote: "We believe that the proceeds received in the Hitachi Transaction, along with our current cash, our revenue generating activities, and our access to funds under our agreement with Aspire Capital, will be sufficient to fund our operations for the next 12 months".
So your hipothesis differs from the one of the Co.
Sorry but you are too optimistic on cash burn, unless yours is a 2017 forecast. As far as I remember, they estimated around 25-28M in the last CC for 2016, which would leave the Co. with little money at the end of the year, which means 7 months away. But this is a Co. that IMO should burn not more than 2.5M per quarter and margins on PCT sales (last quarter at 17%), are still too low, since they would need around 5 times these sales level IMO to make it viable with these margins %. Not only shareholders didn't get to know about the financial part of the deals, but more than that it wasn't even disclosed if the partnering companies will use PCT's services, especially AiVita. And since the info wasn't disclosed, why would someone think they were somehow favorable? The market didn't indeed think so at all, and the news had more or less no effect on the share price.
The point is that the company is currently spending aroung 7-8M of cash per quarter. The point is that most of the recent drug partnerships did not mention any upfront milestone payments, and even worse than that, they decided not to disclose any future amount either. The point is that they have an Aspire ATM in place and there's the concrete risk it will be soon used to fund operations, if the company will be unable to raise additional money elsewhere. So while I might share some sort of optimism for the future of the company, I see very little optimism for the future of current shareholders, which is a big difference.
Focusing on driving PCT revenue? It should be what they are focusing on, please advise me on which new contracts for PCT have been signed in 2016, besides TX. The company has 2 possible near time catalysts: CLI partnership in Japan and EU JV for PCT. If they won't materialize soon, I hope you understand that a massive dilution might take place. Is this being negative or being realistic?
It's obviously possible that the company will survive, but I wonder where current shareholders will be when that will happen. If your belief is in PCT, with gross margins of 17% (or so), would you tell me with current or projected expenses how much should revenues be in order to be profitable?
Comparing Stemcentrx with CLBS means you've done so little research on both, too bad. What are CLBS cancer drugs in clinical trials, just to make me wonder...and what were these two winning drugs that worked? Just to let people know. And what do you mean by "worked"? How many people have T1D? It's orphan drug, so less than 200K. Fastest POC? What are you talking about...once again? Maybe you are confusing interim safety results with final study's results.
You know, you don't do anyone a favour by pumping without a clue. Put down the numbers, and let's talk about them.
StemCells to shut down operations (one of CLBS's customers, as of investor presentation of May, available at CLBS's website).
I wonder what's the sense of being so optimistic. With the stock price that sits where it is, with around 7 to 8M of cash burn per quarter, and so on, please tell me where you find such optimism. Seriously.
"Phase II"
What's wrong with the red detail? They canceled the PIII thus the only completed trials for CLBS20 are the PII trials.
Lol, no thanks.
just to make things clear, where did I say that that guy is friend with the CEO?