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Thanks. Not very surprising, but nice to have it confirmed. Not that it will matter much for people who want to spread lies on the internet, but still
I wonder who that is
But it feels to me like we are close to the end
because 2 or 3 months from now I could be in real trouble if we don't get the share price up
Size of the assets, andrew, not market cap.
I can put it more clear if you want; my stomach turns when I think of Solomon getting ANY compensation shares before he has gotten the PPS back up to 10-15$.
With Solomon ANY compensation sharewise should be to use the MAXIMUM of book value pr share and current PPS, and only allow compensation if BOTH have increased.
aandt; are you able to translate the name on these shops? (and some of the text on the adds as well)
RD; Have I forgotten one of your posts, or did you miss something major i July?
Cfr this link from the July-update; www.sinoagrofood.com/content/AF4_2017
Bullet-point three states;
The pictures below depict one of our new seafood shops located within the Sanxi shopping center) in Zhongshan. It specializes in selling live seafood, and features e-commerce capabilities to take orders for delivery of live fish
These pictures depict the fresh chilled seafood market at Zone B Huadi Business Street, Liwan District, Guangzhou City . Our next seafood shop will be co-located. It will have over 500m2 of shop space and sell AF4 products
Well, Solomon doesn't use his ears, remember?
I'm not sure whether ECAB and Garret "wants" to force him to give up the a-shares - at the moment, even though Garret did share that he was out of patience (my chose of words).
They did write something about preferred shares - should we interpret that as a new class of shares or a-shares? Solomon could allow Garret (and others) to convert shares to 51% of the a-shares. Garret has shown Solomon that he is friendly and they could make an agreement that Garret will protect Solomon, but Garret would get a real grip on Solomon. Also Garret's reputation would be on the line, so Garret would probably take action if Solomon refused to listen.
That would be a win-win;
1) Garret has shown that he is friendly towards retail shareholders (how friendly remains to be seen, and he might make a deal that stings, but it would most likely be a deal that is seen as fair (or super fair) from any professional)
2) The PPS would benefit greatly
3) Solomon would still be in charge - as long as he listens
We could get the best from two worlds
I doubt that will happen though, it's probably just some fluff, some really bad idea, or something that is meant as a good thing but is formed in such a way that it scared the living daylight out of us.
He should of course have said no to a raise, and his +300k is a lot in China - but (sub)400k isn't that much considering the size of SIAF (I haven't compared it to similar companies though) and most CEOs would not take a cut in salary because of mismanagement anyways.
HOWEVER, it is outrageous that he increases his share-compensation in the agreement. And his new compensation formula for SIAF-shares is a rip-off that he could get in serious trouble for (as well as Nisse since he is the chair of the compensation committee). Mind-blowing.
What are you going to do about it, sue them?
They have to include it all, as in, a worst case scenario
Well, they're using average anyways so the EPS is highly misleading anyways. What about the ECAB-shares; where they used in the fully diluted numbers? (if not, shouldn't they?)
The sharecount on Merkur is 17.53 million (going down to 17.51 million it seems). I.e most of the dilution seems to be dividend equally(ish) between Merkur and OTC.
The report? Not the large one, I haven't bothered since Solomon has made sure that SIAF isn't about fundamentals anyways
Your post? Yes, but I didn't notice the neutral part - I guess I was to busy with the good and bad
Nice catch btw - it helps to have reduced the risk 50% on that one. Well, it's more than 50% since it also shows that Mr D'Alessandro actually is friendly like we have hoped/believed - as well as he is unlikely to convert at rock-bottom prices. I.e the risk is reduced from 4M/65%/0.25=24 million to 2M/1.5=1.3 million (or something like that)
So we should expect a 50% convertion at $1.5? Or possible higher? I.e maximum 1.3 million shares?
It doesn't really matter whether they are able to distribute the 12.71% or the full 18.3% now. What matters is that they are able to distribute TRW-shares ASAP.
Actually, it would be better if they only distributed 9% now. That would give instant credibility and a heavy support for the PPS after the ex-date.
If they have more debt to settle, it is even more important - distribute the first part so that we can get the PPS up before the future dilution (i.e reduce the number of shares needed).
Heck; I would rather get 12.71% at 38 million shares than the full 18.3% at 50 million shares!
Any idea whether the wording "of Tri-way’s fair-market value" means anything?
Didn't you also predict the PPS would drop like a rock after the 10Q was released?
because trw development is stalled it's not going into capex
Siaf will make more money through consulting fees going forward
this company is trading where it is because of the way it was managed
by the time they eventually distribute shares many moons from now it will have been diluted to crap
The problem is the dumping
Well, it should be way better to be able to participate in the horrible dilution at fractions of book, than what we've had so far (even though it will still destroy book value pr share). Unfortunately most (?) of us will be unable to participate because we're already to deep invested in SIAF - because we gave Solomon the benefit of doubt...
The market clearly doesnt care about the dividend announcement
Cash dividends show management actually cares about shareholders
and intend to reward them
I believe there will be an explicit commitment to put a cap on the outstanding share count once the $100M USD Tri-way loan is secured and announced
in the 10-K they targeted the Tri-way distribution to occur in Q3
I've always said 3 things will take the stock back to previous levels (cash dividend, cap on outstanding share count, and distributing the Tri-way dividend to shareholders)
Thanks for accepting the challenge, Mera
Unfortunately I have to disagree with you though - at the current situation that is. I would not have bought SIAF for 10-15$/share if Solomon where to keep his a-shares and I had no cash for infusing into SIAF.
Today, I believe a fair price is around a 10% yield (best case, but regarding the 5 cents as a semi-annual dividend and not a dividend). However, I would not sell at that price! lol
If Solomon does the right thing (mainly the points I had regarding the dilution) then we would be looking at a much higher fair PPS IMO. Without the risk of dilution a yield of 5% would be fair (because of the upcoming TRW-dividend).
As soon as the TRW-dividend is confirmed with date (at least quarter) and TRW-shares/SIAF-share (and/or no more dilution) then I would agree that 10-15$ might (temporary, i.e before the ex date) be a fair PPS (however whether 10 is expensive or 15 is cheap depends on whether they will release TRWs report and what's in there)
Typical OTC. Has happened to me as well several times It would have been so liberating to get rid of the manipulation and just trade on baby-Merkur (less China-bias, no market makers and also transparent)
I wonder whether OTC was responsible for stopping the gain in PPS, or whether it would have played out like this anyways. It seems rather obvious that todays decline on Merkur was a reaction to OTC closing lower than what Merkur did yesterday. You can't win on Merkur when OTC is the one that determines the PPS.
Well, things might still change tomorrow and onwards. I hope Solomon will be rewarded PPS-wise from the dividend policy, so that he starts using his ears, but they may have played it out wrong (i.e semi-annual and delayed) so that we might be punished from it (and Solomon feeling that there is no use to try to protect the PPS).
They should have worded it different as well; an annual dividend for 2018 of 5 cents sounds way less than a semi-annual dividend of 5 cents/6 months starting H2/18, but it is the same (ish) We only have 7 months left of 2018 so any NEW shareholder are looking at a yield of 24%/year at the current PPS (and not a 14% yield like it sounds) and then 28% (or more) for 2019.
Stop blaming the market...
What have I made up? Did or did not Solomon dilute us at 2% of book in Q1/Q2? Do you think it's unfair to say that is treating the shares as toilet paper? Did I make up that a convertion of the toxic note with todays PPS equals 17 million shares? (4MUSD/0.36/0.65=17 million) Do you feel super-confident that they will distribute the TRW-shares in Q3? Or is it that SIAF has an incredible potential that is made up? You need to be more spesific - and also actually counter the facts/arguments and not just say that they are silly or whatnot.
Look at the valid numbers
This is what we have
All the numbers are valid.
Nobody knows.
I look at the numbers we have now
snow True, but you did express that it wasn't a certainty (although that could both indicate 60% or 99%). I haven't been around long enough to judge the promise this time vs in the good (?) old days, but the wording in the Q1 does seem to be a commitment that people would sue SIAF/Solomon on if they does not distribute. Hence I would guess that the probability is extremely high (but it might be financed with dilution though, if Solomon doesn't have a solid plan on how to get the cash needed). Am I too naive here?
When repaying debt they can choose between paying SIAF and pay off the $4.7M loan so we get the collateral shares back
Can anyone argue against that?
Garret was never promoting the dividend before getting the loan
I wonder why, did he belive Solomon wouldn't manage or that he need to stop diluting first.
Shouldn't it be way higher than 50%? Seems a pretty sure way to get sued if they don't deliver on that promise, no?
Also, it is less than 2MUSD so it should be easy to achieve - unless Solomon acts reckless (i.e gamble everything on the TRW-loan)
They have to halt all new or planned developments at TRW until they get financing
Capital expenditure for all businesses was reduced, most notably at SIAF’s equity investee Tri-way, which restricts project development to a percentage of cash flow and as justified by individual projects, until outside cash resources become available to continue development of aquafarms 4 and 5
I hope you are right, but the marked should (rightfully?) fear that - they sort of warned us about that might be an issue as well in the Q1-report.
Put a cap on OS and/or some guarantee that there will be no more (heavy) dilution and the PPS should rise more.
CC 29th of May that is
There is one major problem with the comparison though; ECAB ended dilution, the dividend does not. If they were to put a cap on OS on the other hand...
snow I believe your first question indeed is the most important issue now, but I fear they will only give us BS and/or gamble on TRW-financing (most likely will they ignore the question).
It blows my mind that Solomon isn't able to make a deal with TRW to avoid the dilution. I can't figure out whether the partners hate him and SIAF, or if Solomon can't see that diluting at 2% of book means that he has to justify a 50 times gain from the alternative. I fear that his focus is purely on TRW and that he doesn't care about diluting SIAF since he - in the end - will dilute himself to a x% ownership through the compensation scam + convertion of a-shares.
He should be able to balance both the interest of SIAF shareholders as well as the TRW-partners - and hence be a hero in both companies - but it seems that he is either unable or unwilling to. If only Garret were able to convince him that he needs to at least avoid more dilution.
it's more comfortable to wait for things to happen when you know this year gets $ 0.05 and next year $ 0.1$ dividend
in addition, five-percent (5%) of the amount exceeding the Company’s annual net income of $20 million in FY2019 to be declared and paid as an additional cash dividend during the subsequent fiscal year (i.e. sometime during FY 2020)
Empty; Indeed. The potential in SIAF is still incredible, although the risk/reward has shifted to the worse from what it was (supposed to be) one year ago. I doubt Solomon is able to realize his (negative) part in this, and even if he does he might want to be the one to steer SIAF to glory (even if that means that it takes longer than with a proper CEO).
The cash dividend has greatly improved the risk/reward though, let's hope OTC will allow Solomon to be rewarded for this move! A TRW-dividend in Q3 would be magical, but I feel it is more likely that it will be Q3/19 than Q3/18 (if it is going to be Q3 that is). Hopefully I'm wrong.
The next few days till the CC will be interesting; OTC has a 15% discount compared to Merkur now, so it doesn't matter whether the PPS is climbing or descending it seems, Merkur always has a premium to OTC. I guess we don't have the same China bias here as in the US (yay for Merkur).
At the moment you can buy shares on OTC with a 13% yield (or 11% for the closing price on Merkur). I think 10% is good seen from SIAFs perspective (although many of the current shareholders might not be able to resist increasing if able), and it is probably helped with the 10 cent (or more) dividend for 2019. As soon as we have the ex date for the Q4-dividend - and thus some more trust/credibility - we might be able to lower that yield (maybe closing in on a 10% yield compared to the 10 cents and not the 5 cents). However, the big joker here is the TRW-dividend. And dilution (put an end to that and more people might dare to invest).
Now we have to deal with SIAF and the real life.
Sure, you are the best!