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I wish he would confirm it, but he seems to have been off the grid lately. Looking at the schedule from the last prospectus in SEDAR,the cumulative costs were less than their balance at the time plus the Longtai contribution. I think there would have been less than a million to spare at the end of the year, so if burn rate was linear, maybe January 20 or so!
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Is this something McNally could confirm? I don't see any problem with him answering or giving some form of indication of how long we're funded to.
Agree! If they keep hitting milestones, there has to be a point where the market notices. The math says we're funded into early next year already. All they need is a big Christmas present!
Maybe somebody somewhere knows something good!
In the SEDAR filings, the short term prospectus from late June had some cost estimates for milestones on the schedule. If they stayed on schedule and their cost estimates are correct, they would be broke right after the end of the year, maybe a month or two... I don't know if any warrants could come into play between now and then to help, but it looks like we are funded for the next 4 months or so.
From post 18155:
"For financials, if I read this correctly, 2nd quarter R&D and Net & Comprehensive loss for the quarter add up to about $4.5M (compared to Q2 2016 total of $15.5M). They had $6.8M cash and equivalent on hand as of June 30, then closed the offering for over $5M and converted Longtai for another $2M. That's just about $14M total. If their burn rate remains fairly steady, they are funded halfway through Q1 2018."
I'm still in it for the win. My break even point is down to $0.47 and I'd lower it more if I had anything left to put into it. Patience is everything!
I agree, a simple acknowledgement would be nice, and I understand if they said they cannot answer certain questions at this time. Not everybody's style, I guess.
I had written to Mr. Barker a few months ago; he forwarded my email to Mr. McNally who did subsequently answer. They seemed to want him to be the voice of the company. I have subsequently written to him directly and had pleasant exchanges each time, until last week when I asked about the money situation and received no reply. If there is an intentional communications blackout, that could be preceding some big news. Given that most of our inquiries have been finance related, maybe they are finishing off some details on a deal pertaining to financing. Just a thought...
Unfortunately, barring some substantial news (most likely pertaining to acquiring some form of financing) I don't see a big PPS jump this calendar year. As I mentioned in post 58459, I don't see the third training center announcement helping PPS any more than the last two, but when those docs start seeing and using SPORT they are likely to start a little buzz around the industry which could lead to inquiries, investments, and finally a PPS bump (or jump).
On the other hand, Mr. McNally is presenting at the investor conference in New York next week. I think if he were to break out of his mold a little bit and add a little more showmanship, and talk a bit more about why this device is SOOO much better than what's out there and why it HAS to succeed in the marketplace... He presents after 5:00PM so these people have had a long day already; he needs to wake them up with some real energy at the microphone. Maybe a joke or two, like (off the top of my head, yes, I really just made this up so yes, it is probably more pathetic than something he should use) How is a repeat da Vinci patient like professional golfer? 9 holes and sub-par results! (I know, even I should be able to do better than that - he has a week to prepare.) What do Intuitive patients and pelicans have in common? Both have to deal with the biggest bills! (Okay, I'll stop now.)
My point is that I don't see much in the way of PPS rising this year unless something good happens, and that may take something a bit more splashy than we have seen. If they have a solid plan that they are not revealing, well, that's great, but if that were the case, will these investor conferences help? Would they be needed at all? Not too sure. Maybe some from column A and some from column B.
He has been steadfast and fairly stoic to date, taking the responsible route to get things done in a most respectable fashion. The train is back on the tracks and has left the station, but it hasn't picked up any real steam yet. I'm just concerned that technical achievement and milestone progress might not be enough to kick start the money side of this. Somebody seems to be thinking "Ho hum... another milestone, just like they said. Big deal. I'll keep my money in my pocket for now." Technical perfection hasn't been enough for this stock. It might be time to rattle a few cages, put on his P.T. Barnum hat and crack that whip at the elephants to wake them the heck up! SPORT is too good a concept (with execution to match) to be sitting on the financial sidelines with a crappy 5:05PM start time for the presentation. His resume gives him the credibility to be taken seriously; I think now we need him to show the energy to get people's attention before they slip out of the conference for their third martini.
Just my two cents, and maybe not even worth that much.
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66', do you see us going the rest of the year at these levels? If not, what can we anticipate moving us above these current prices?
On Design Freeze, they may declare an "Initial Design Freeze" before going to clinicals, and if clinical trials determine any changes are merited, they tweak the design and declare a final Design Freeze. Most of the changes, if minor, can usually be analyzed for potential impact on clinical test results and regression testing of just the changes can be fairly minimal. Or clinicals run beautifully and they determine no change needed!
As for the Medrobotics break-in scandal... Does anyone remember the original "The Love Bug" movie, where the Chinese dealer ends up owning Herbie and works diligently behind the scenes to ensure it doesn't lose? I can picture a group of Chinese guys in gray sweatsuits carrying the car out of the mud on long wooden poles, like carrying a patient on a giant stretcher. Naturally, the protagonist eventually won.
If we send to more than one person, they will rightfully need to coordinate to discuss possible responses, which doubles the chances that someone will feel that they shouldn't respond at all! It seems to me it would just complicate the situation on their end, whereas I'd prefer to keep things as simple and direct as possible, while making their lives a little easier as well. I'm unaware of any real questions about them meeting scheduled milestones, other than the extended legal wranglings to reach the completion of signed contracts for the third training site, but I assume Nicholson will be doing the heavy lifting on creating the training programs and they are already working on it. I plan to focus this inquiry exclusively on funding strategy and will hope to get a personal response from Mr. McNally (although it would not surprise me if he turned the question over to Mr. Randall - a reasonable thing to do, but I would prefer a reply with Mr. McNally's straight shooting instead of the heart of the questions being circumvented).
I shall ponder and reflect upon how to best address such a question!
ISRG broke $1000...
I don't think the value behind these training centers is in the announcement of a training center. The training centers will initially help develop the training programs including simulation software, and then surgeons begin training on and using real SPORT systems. That's where the buzz picks up. Even if they all need to sign confidentiality agreements, there will be leaks and word will get out. These are the guys who know the current options and want better treatment and better hardware than ISRG or TRXC are offering. I assume we are still a few months away from that point, but I suspect by the end of this year, as more people are exposed to and go hands-on with SPORT, word will be getting around that it is the real deal. The high profile folks like Dr. Patel probably can't come out and do personal endorsements because they may also be working with the competition at these training centers, but they will still talk to friends, family, etc. and word should spread. This should gradually lift PPS into a viable range for a reasonable RS and subsequent uplist. Milestone announcements in the meantime should just support and affirm the on-going efforts, which as we have seen have little impact on PPS without some additional chatter in the real world. By year end, we should start seeing both. My thoughts on it anyway... Patience and alcohol should get us through this lull!
Anyone know why TRXC is running up today?
He has responded each time I have written; I have shared those replies each time (not necessarily verbatim, per his request - copied/pasted emails wouldn't meet any standard of uniform public disclosure). Never anything really new or groundbreaking in his replies, just re-assertion and/or validation of information already in the public domain. That is typically what I have asked for.
Actually, burn rate will likely fluctuate up and down during these training and validation periods. These sites (especially Nicholson) are helping develop the training programs, which will include training fixtures (mostly mechanical), simulators (more software than hardware) and documentation for training methods, presentations, manuals, etc. Definitely still qualifies as development but hopefully a bit less intense and less expensive than the SPORT device and operational software. Cost estimates for these are also listed in the short form prospectus from the end of June. I think they were still looking at $5M-$6M per quarter for this quarter and next, so current funding should get us just about to the end of the year.
Not just data. Part of the importance of the three training centers is to get SPORT some exposure to the medical community, and get a number of surgeons to go hands-on with it. A few start talking and word spreads... The demand for SPORT could be building long before it gets to the market. By then, surgeons could be telling hospital administration to hold off on their next robot purchase until SPORT is available. Or should we believe that surgeons do not talk to each other?
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It's one thing to say you have a better robot, and quite another to show data that demonstrates that it's really superior.
I love it when people say "Let's do the math!"
Of course, one can manipulate numbers to intentionally distort reality... Certainly does not appear to be the case here.
Started with conservative values, included a reasonable allowance for dilution. Looked at numbers for a reasonable target value of $10/share; the math proves this is a very feasible goal. Apparently based on no RS, which is just a scaling factor anyway. Figure we are 2.5 years away from first sales, allow a little time for sales to start racking up and get some of that market share... This looks to me like a viable 4 to 5 year projection.
Does anyone on this board live in Watertown, MA? That $758M Powerball jackpot can fund this to the finish line and the winner wouldn't even notice the missing $60M...
I also have been hearing that the longer ISRG is around, the more their customers want an alternative option.
From the Short form prospectus...
Prepare and submit 510(k) application to
FDA and prepare technical file for CE Mark
and submit to European Notified Body
Q4 2018
Anticipated receipt of FDA 510(k) clearance
and CE Mark
H1 2019
Low volume production of pre-release systems will need to be happening (like... now!) to support training and pre-clinical studies - reasonable assumption would be at least two or three systems per location; this helps validate the production processes to be ready for formal production and sales to follow as soon as possible after FDA clearance. We could be on the market and selling units in less than 30 months from now. Just writing that last sentence makes me think great patience will still be required by all! 30 months... Will feel like forever as it ticks by, but once we get there, it will have all been worth the wait. Vegas, baby!
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This company is 3 to 4 years away from sales and production. wouldn't FDA approval give this stock an immediate boost? Of course that is probably 2 years off
Lots of talk about Design Freeze dreams, but straight from SEDAR filing a couple month ago...
Complete and verify system design
architecture, including performance testing in
laboratory environment and design of
surgeon simulation training modules
-
Implement design changes and retest
system and subsystems
-
Update Design History File and
documentation for relevant modules of
Company Quality Management
Systems (“QMS”)
-
Complete initial requirements and
architecture for surgeon simulation
software and training program design,
as required in preparation for FDA
submittal.
Q3 2017
They said what they are doing. They are doing what they said.
I personally don't think design freeze news will budge the needle any more than the second training site announcement did (or didn't), nor the third. I don't know what it will take to move this thing out of the basement, but they are building Iron Man's suit in their basement and when it finally flies, LOOK OUT!
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I think we are still a long way from design freeze.
Executing the plan!
Step by step, eyes on the goal line... They told us what they were going to do, and now they are doing it. It's great to have such a focused management team!
We are of hardy stock! No pun intended...
Moodys, that was a good call back then! We are such an active message board that I truly can't recall specifics about a lot of the material posted here or who posted what... personally, my brain processes the present better than it recalls much of the past. I don't know if it is information overload that comes with the digital age, or if work/family/life/stress all hinder retention, but I used to remember anything that came in front of my eyes. Look no further than IITF's recent post on that patent. I truly felt bad about having forgotten that one! In retrospect, I must agree your $10M assessment should not have been glossed over that way either.
We really can't know how long that money will last because everything is subject to change, including their burn rate. The last couple quarters had more development work, potentially expensive stuff, and setting up with the training centers might have included some initial pre-payments, and they spent about $4.5M last quarter. If the bigger focus is now shifting more to the training centers, there may be some additional up front costs for development of some additional training materials (everything from Powerpoint presentations and documentation to simulators and training software) but I would not expect that development effort to be nearly as intense nor as expensive as development for the SPORT system and software... and I assume there is still some production software development going on as well. But to see the progress this team has made since the beginning of the year compared to what has been spent, these guys are working very efficiently! Think about a year ago and two years ago. Okay, I just hit SEDAR for numbers. Expenses, 6 months ending June 30, 2016, $20,658,367. Over $10M per quarter. Go back another year, $17,464,790 for 6 months ending June 30, 2015. $9M/quarter burn rate. Now we are spending half as much while meeting milestones. Everyone thinks the waiting for this stock to come around is excruciating, but think back a year when it came to a halt due to funding. Money may still be hard to come by, but the new team is kicking some ass in the operational efficiency department!
But simply adding the $2M to the $5M offering they had just closed on would bring them above the reported $6.8M for end of June. Therefore, the $2M could not have been part of the $6.8M.
As I mentioned earlier, we do tend to analyze the heck out of everything!
ST, my apologies... You are correct about the larger first closing for about $5M; that got them to the $6.8 at the end of June. The second closing was for a little over $1M more on July 21, so that's not part of the Q2 closing tally, so it puts us at about about $8M. I wouldn't think the $2M deposit from Longtai could be considered cash or cash equivalent until after it was converted this month, so that SHOULD be a balance of $10M... Doesn't get us too far into Q1 2018, but still should get us about the the end of this year, give or take... If spending slows around the holidays (as often happens) then we still might have funding to year's end if the $2M was already part of the tally for first half. But... the other reason I think it could not be is that the June 29 closing was for over $5M. If the $2M deposit was already on the books at that time, their total for end of June would have been well over $7M, not just $6.8M. That is why I have to presume the $2M was added this month, and wasn't part of the Q2 end numbers. So we should have started the second half with $10M+.
And no, nobody pays me to write this. If anyone is thinking I am on the "paid to write here" list, you are definitely incorrect. I am just a (relatively) poor working slob like several others here. I have been honest and possibly more open at times than I should about who I am, what my background is (and isn't), and why I am here. I have met up with Rebster a couple times for beers at a local establishment, so he could certainly vouch for me as well. In fact, we're overdue!
I must respectfully disagree.
I happened to be reviewing the August 8 press release this morning with their second quarter results. Their position is laid out pretty clearly, financial and otherwise.
For financials, if I read this correctly, 2nd quarter R&D and Net & Comprehensive loss for the quarter add up to about $4.5M (compared to Q2 2016 total of $15.5M). They had $6.8M cash and equivalent on hand as of June 30, then closed the offering for over $5M and converted Longtai for another $2M. That's just about $14M total. If their burn rate remains fairly steady, they are funded halfway through Q1 2018.
For the "otherwise", Mr. McNally mentioned six non-financial achievements completed in Q2, the anticipated Q3 signing of the two remaining training centers for feasibility and validation studies, the initiation of those studies, and anticipated live animal studies beginning in Q4.
They said what they were doing and they are doing what they said. Really, little or no further clarification from them is warranted in that regard.
Honestly, I think part of the strength of this message board and its contributors is that we dig for details, we analyze them and sometimes over-analyze them, and for the most part we have a solid understanding of the company, the technology, and the personnel; certainly to a greater extent than most casual investors know the organizations they are invested in. This in-depth knowledge that we DO have causes us to raise further questions which equate to minutia of their daily operations. We know in general terms they are going to sign with two more training centers. Curiosity is driving to question more about when, and who, and what unique offerings each of them might bring to enhance our technology and its acceptance in the marketplace. We know too much and it makes us a bit too eager for more information. We are by no means under-informed; we are instead over-curious. In some ways rightfully so; most of us have supported the company through thick and thin so we find the current situation frustrating. But in reality, the flow of information is not unreasonable for the situation, and we aren't in the dark about anything that can be know or can reasonably be announced.
Taking another quick look at it, I'm not sure... Someone said something about the patent being approved, but it looks more like it (either the patent or the application, not sure) was assigned to Titan on the 8th. Or really, assigned BACK to Titan. Apparently in 2011 or 2014 it had been assigned to Titan, then to Design Standards Corporation (whoever they are), and now back to Titan. Wish I had time to dig more today...
It says we don't have any bad news to discuss! And the Haptic patent seems to be getting less exposure than I would have hoped for too...
I'm with you on this... October makes 28 years of marriage for us! I look forward to sharing the rewards from 350K shares with her for many years to come, once the shares achieve some fraction of their potential! It isn't really so much asking for permission as it is agreeing on any moderately-sized purchase. As far as asking for forgiveness instead of permission, I'm hoping nobody here will need forgiveness for the level of returns we should ultimately see!
I'm in the same boat... I'd love to buy more but she isn't keen on the idea ("We have plenty..." she is probably right).
What I would love to do is open a Roth IRA for each of my kids and load them up with cheap shares. If I understand correctly (which is not always the case) all growth in the Roth would be tax free. They are both in college but could have a great leg up on their retirements if I could do this for them.
ST - Did you also get the full report emailed to you? I would be interested to know what their overall assessment is (the stats presented aren't as meaningful to me as they would be to someone in the investment field) but I prefer not to spread my email address around any more than necessary!
They had haptic feedback pretty well tuned for Amadeus; it should be a slam dunk to port it to the new design, which surely they have been doing over the past few years. Especially now with ISRG's single port offering coming into play, the differentiation gives us yet another competitive advantage if it works well.
This certainly would seem bizarre... if it was any other company!
I'm with BigT82 in that I would rather ride this out for a couple years to see where it goes. I also was looking for $10 per share or more when we get there. Are there other reasons they might pull the offering? Was it somehow restrictive, maybe being registered in Alberta and British Columbia imposed some other limitations? Even a plain old loan of some sort is probably preferable to the amount of dilution we have in store at these levels.
There has to be a reason they would take the offering off the table. Is there some sort of tax disadvantage to leaving it open? Maybe they want to roll the dice on the RS already? If I understand this correctly, shareholder approval was not a necessity for the RS, but they put it in front of us anyway, up to 30:1. But if our approval wasn't necessary, could they possibly be doing a higher ratio for the uplist?
If it was a buyout, I doubt they would be giving the company away based on current share price when they know the value is there, and every new patent approval affirms the value further. Market value of the technology would have to be closing in on $1B given the upcoming competition in the marketplace, and that's over $4/share. But even if they were conducting the Fire Sale, that alone should drive PPS... like, starting TODAY!
I'm just throwing things out there, but... there HAS to be a reason! It seems like such a small move to withdraw the offering, but there has to be a much bigger reason driving it.
I believe Senhance also has haptic feedback. Not sure about any ISRG offerings.
I hadn't seen it before...
Thank you!
They do have a VP of Sales (Euro and Asia), VP of Marketing, and VP of Business Development all listed on web site. And all three should already be fairly busy. It takes a lot of work and money to set up distribution channels, including a service organization, to be ready to go when regulatory approval arrives. Contracting with an existing distributor is a great way to get a foot in the door with the market, but as it grows, that could become a more expensive option that self-distribution. This isn't the cart before the horse, it's more like building a road so then the cart is loaded up, they have some way to get to the customer!
Volume is a little light so far today... Someone plopped down their $11.20 to bump up our PPS by almost 2%. Ahhh, if only it were that easy all the time!
I believe he used the phrase "capital efficiency" in his email reply... They are clearly doing well in that regard.
Hi all,
I did receive a reply this afternoon from Mr. McNally regarding my inquiry on the Longtai situation. He thoughtfully recommended that I summarize his points instead of posting his email verbatim, as the message board does not represent uniform public disclosure.
He pointed out that they do share our concern regarding the undesirable level of dilution, but that the conversion of the Longtai funds is in everyone's best interest and improves the working capital situation for operations. Longtai may become more of a strategic partner in the future, but Titan is currently committed to the schedule of stated milestones on the path toward US and European commercialization in 2019. He also mentioned that yesterday's press release highlights their milestone progress, their capital efficiency, and future capital needs.
He closed by thanking all of us for our support.
He did not delve into the portion of my inquiry about Longtai and their peculiar headquarters in a residential address, nor their Ningbo connection. By stating that they may become more of a strategic partner in the future, the implication is that they are a stable enough organization to to make "strategic partner" levels of contribution down the road.
The content was mostly reassurance, not truly new information, but it is appreciated that he is willing to reply to reasonable questions.
As a reminder, with our desire for news, I will paste in the milestones for Q3 and Q4 of 2017 (as shown in the June 27 Final Short Form Prospectus). Also as a reminder, next week we are half way through Q3. Within about 7 weeks from now, we SHOULD be hearing something about the progress on these Q3 tasks. These are important milestones for this phase of the program, but I still expect the market to respond to any of these positive announcements with the typical indifference we have seen. Barring announcements pertaining to securing of substantial funding or major partnership/buyout (something at least two orders of magnitude beyond their latest $2M partnership), I think patience will continue to be required.
Q3:
Complete and verify system design
architecture, including performance testing in
laboratory environment and design of
surgeon simulation training modules
- Implement design changes and retest
system and subsystems
- Update Design History File and
documentation for relevant modules of
Company Quality Management
Systems (“QMS”)
- Complete initial requirements and
architecture for surgeon simulation
software and training program design,
as required in preparation for FDA
submittal
Q4:
Verify system performance in pre-clinical
(live animal labs, swine), while establishing
clear regulatory pathways for US and Europe
- Complete and report on pre-clinical
live animal (swine) studies at strategic
facilities in US and Europe
- Confirm FDA and CE Mark pathways
in coordination with regulatory
authorities