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AMZN could probably drop below $400 or lower.
Nothing major. Just another red day for tech stock. GOOG is so pricey these days. Not many investors can buy even a hundred at once.
Apple is being hated by just about every analyst. What's going on?
Great article by Bill Maurer
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3875436-apple-say-massive-dividend-increase
It is also worth mentioning that the current MSFT trailing four quarters price/earnings ratio is hugely ballooned by the one-time bath they took on the Nokia purchase reported as part of the July 2015 quarterly earnings report.
I don't think Azure, etc. will ever justify MSFT PE of close to 40.
IPhone users keep their phones for an average of about 2 years. That is essentially the life of the battery and the length of their contract and then they trade up. The old phones get turned in and refurbished and sold on the cheap to those upgrading from even older phones and those in foreign countries that cannot afford the latest phone, but want the iPhone. This way Apple is taking share from Android and from the small Windows phone markets.
Bought MSFT in 2011 when everyone hated it.... Looking at paring back the position up here after significant outperformance relative to the S&P. Buybacks are great, but the financials aren't what they were when I bought in.... Profitability is down, the valuation has gone way up and LT debt has gone from $10b to $40b. Buybacks and dividend raises are great, even if they're coming on the heels of massive debt issuance at extremely low yields, but eventually MSFT has to figure out a way to justify a $500b mkt cap. I don't doubt this company can continue to do well for the next decade though.
Apple stock is currently at $96.02 (-$1.31) and has only traded 20 million shares so far today. At this rate it won't break 45 million today and that was the problem for the entire second half of 2015, LOW VOLUME. The BlackOut Period is over and yet I see no evidence of Apple Massively buying back its' stock today. They won't increase the Dividend till April and they are not buying stock, so What are they doing?
If Apple management believes the company's future is bright, and surely they do, then the pace of buybacks should increase. It is the best possible investment at these levels given the low cost in achieving this goal.
Apple will drag the entire market down tomorrow and create another great buying opportunity.
I feel Microsoft is moving faster than Apple in terms of innovation these days. TC is losing his touch.
Seems like the stock will be stuck between 95 and 102 for the next 6 or more months . dead money for a LONG time unless you are trading on a daily basis . I think over the next few days price will go down significantly as investors like myself sell out of apple for the next 2 quarters and put our money somewhere it will appreciate ..the only people that will continue to hold are folks that have significant profits made right now because selling would effect their tax situation However anyone with a cost basis of 90-100 will probably exit the stock
It doesn't lose anything. iPhone sales will support Apple's bottom line for years to come, and I almost wish that it wasn't so, and the company would have a greater incentive to exploit the full advantage of their ecosystem, but who is to say that they don't. I have no idea what they are working on.
If AAPL does not beat the analyst's estimates, the analysts will all be screaming, "See, just like we told you, AAPL couldn't beat this quarter, AAPL is doomed!" If AAPL does in fact meet or beat the estimates of the analysts, they will all be screaming, "See, just like we told you, AAPL's next quarter is impossible, AAPL is doomed!" It's the same story, every earnings report. The sky has been falling for every quarter for ten years.
Apple did not receive any reward for their 2015 performance, now seems to be punished for even daring to duplicate the most money ever made by any company in today's economy. Amazing a company like Netflix has a higher share price, with no dividend and little chance of growing revenue or profit. Notice retail continues to keep growing their ownership of the total share count, institutions appear content to make money on the options. Apple is simply by any financial performance measurement hugely undervalued at today's share price in the market.
Not sure where $75 comes from but I guess the expected move for this stock on earnings is around 7 dollars so we will see either 90 or 105 ... well that is still WAY down from even December so not much to get excited about in the near future . I don't see how these analysts can predict an average of 140 by the end of the year as this implies an almost 1 dollar per week raise throughout the year .. so far we cant even hold on to 2-3 dollars .
From what I know and have heard that in India and China the iPhone is a status symbol for the middle class.
Apple has tons of cash money and it means several things to investors: potential ability to do acquisitions big and small, ability to ride out storms in rapidly shifting industries like technology, ability to continue to invest in R&D and enter new market segments without betting the company.
AMD faces a very tough road. Polaris and Zen will need to be extremely competitive to give the company any kind of improved competitive footing. If Zen hits its intended targets, the fact that APUs will inevitably follow at a later date should not prove fatal, particularly if AMD can field those products by the back end of 2017.
Not an inspiring test of 18 right there. may get out if no good movement in couple of hours.
Google can't do hardware so they must partner now with hardware companies.
The Samsung partnership didn't do too well and now Google is partnering with a company with far less hardware capability. Like Google's relationship with Samsung, over the long term, their partnership with Lenovo too will deteriorate.
iphone basically serves as bling to most of Chinese buyer, just like a fad. Once there is a newer thing serves better as new bling than iphone, iphone sales will drop faster than a rock.
Any kind of negative news in this stock market environment will probably put AAPL well below $90s.
iPhone 6S is underperforming, but I think a lot of the weakness is because the 6 models are identical looking and are relative values. While they are cheaper, the effect on ASP will be minimized by the shift to Plus size phones and higher memory options. I think iPhone units will be slightly higher than last year, ASP slightly lower.
Intel's free cash flow this year is $8 billion or so, which is about what it what 17 years ago in 1999. So there's been no growth in FCF for 17 years, so Intel at best is worth just 10x its FCF, or $80 billion. That's another 30% drop from here to about $20 per share. In contrast, Apple's FCF in 2015 is $70 billion, up from $9-10 billion in 2009 when it had about the same yearly FCF as Intel (now almost 10x greater in just 6-7 years). Oh, how the paths of INTC and AAPL have diverged! Intel's multiple on its FCF is still overinflated by 50% while Apple's multiple on its FCF is underinflated by about 50-100%, so it doesn't take a genius to know which of the two will outperform over the next 5, 10, 20 years.
Apple recently paid $18M for an old R&D factory in San Jose. It how been owned by Maxim who closed last year. Before closing the factory had been running various process from 600nm down to 90nm on 200mm wafers.
Is it ever a smart idea to depend on your main competitor to manufacture one of your key components? Obviously they don't have to steal its secrets Apple is handing it to them on a platter. No a smart idea.
Intel is so far ahead in the game that I see almost no consequence that AMD reveals its timeline for the products. Besides, there is no real secrets to Intel anyway. The only one in the dark is the investor. Consumer could care less.
Thank you for your kind words, very appreciated.
I personally think people should stop talking about Zen before we know more about it. Instead, we should talk about how AMD can survive 2016 given its current product lineup.
AMD is doing fine with its GPU segment and embedded segment. But there are two huge problems: For example When Nvidia releases its next lineup of GPUs of Pascal architecture, how will AMD respond? Rumors are that Nvidia will be ready for its new products Q1 or Q2 of 2016. Nvidia has been consistently early to the market and beating AMD in GPU performance in the last few releases. Rumor has it that AMD's next generation of GPU of Arctic island architecture won't be ready until Q3. That worries me a great deal. 14nm would be a tremendous advantage for Nvidia and impossible for AMD to compete and its market share will drop to non-existent if Nvidia releases its next-gen and AMD has nothing to respond soon.
Even better. It just broke 100 actually. SHould be even better after ER.
Revenue growth of 16% yoy for Cirrus is very good news for Apple. As they have control over an architecture (iOS) it is in their very best interest to pass down low margin business to suppliers within their own value chain. Apple riding the cost curves of their suppliers and 16% sales growth for Cirrus probably means much more volume growth for Apple. That should result in higher gross margins for Apple going forward, too.
NFLX is already meandering. No need to buy calls in a hurry. I'll just watch sipping strong coffee.
Apple is using their massive cash buildup to buy technology and establish supply chain relationships that will benefit it out 2-5 years. Buying Apple now means you are buying future EPS. No other hardware manufacturer will be able to make anything.
I noticed a lot of people with iPhones -a lot more than I see with androids. But even more so, of the people I see with Iphones -I have to say about 75% do not have the iphone6/6s--they have earlier models---so im thinking when the 7 comes out, most of those people will upgrade. There really is not much of a change between the 6 and the 6s--i have the 6s. Most of the time I think people skip a phone cycle unless there is a big upgrade really worth going for. I think the same thing happened with the 5 to 5s. so from my observation the Iphone7 numbers should be pretty good--but that's just my opinion.
The problem with Google is nothing is ready for prime time! Google Glass is a perfect example but the list goes on and on. Also, a lot of their dominant products are now going backwards. Google Maps and Adsense are good examples of this trend. Google's policy is to release first then iterate. It's lead to multiple failures like helpouts and glass, just to name a few. They have huge potential, but internally, they seem to lack structure needed to produce marketable, useful products that work. Simply because of Google Search and other good endeavors, it's still a good investment, but what a funny company when you see the inside.
It looks as if the ambiguities within the key variables outweigh predictive values for AMD's critical ZEN-related outcome. Without knowing anything significant about ZEN's future performance, the trade-off of ASP vs volumes is elusive. Not knowing the introduction date further muddles the picture. Die size and yields are not clear, for die size is no long following the square of minimum feature size * transistor count * fudge factor guesstimate. So, manufacturing unit cost is fuzzy in addition to the volume vs ASP curve.The bottom line seems to point strongly at AMD share positions being more of a gamble than investment.
Is AMD going to be too late with Zen considering how Intel makes such "big" improvements from generation to generation; I don't think so, and neither do the reviewers. Tick-tock, incremental gain ... same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, Time isn't holding us, Time isn't after us. AMD presents an opportunity that is "Once in a Lifetime". That is when they're not too busy shooting themselves in the foot. They've had several opportunities to make a stunning comeback and have all but fallen on their face each time. But, with new blood behind the wheels perhaps this is something that will change.
Zen is for head-on with Intel, and the MIT**4 CEO won't forget to review its performance and power consumption as she has been emphasizing performance/power. Again, Zen is AMD's most important investment as the CEO commented. "Comparable high-performance parts" if offered by AMD --> the margins of Intel's high-margin parts lowered --> Intel's subsidizing capacity reduced --> AMD's ability to compete in mainstream increased too, not just high-end. There is no better way to compete, and it's the only way to compete!
We will see, and let's wait for 2016 Computex. My concern is when it will drop back to ~$2.00, maybe after another loss in Q4 and likely 16Q1 too
I don't see a company that, if they are able to meet their ambitious growth projections, will be selling for 3.5x revenue in 5 years time, as a good deal. Any company trading at 3.5x rev better have some pretty damn impressive growth projections. So in 2020, with double the subscribers, a saturated North American market, and significant international growth, would NFLX still have enough growth potential to warrant trading at 3.5x rev (assuming that NFLX doesn't appreciate in the next 5 years)? NFLX is already a huge company, and baking in enormous growth is only realistic in the junior stages of the company; Netflix is already saturating the largest market in the world, and by 2020 will have completed this task.
Then there's the fact that all of these great things that NFLX is doing many of which I personally love, are open to ANY company in the world; NFLX doesn't have a patent on sports broadcasting, nor do they have a patent on streaming content. All of these things could be done by anyone, at great cost.
We can't use the previous environment that NFLX thrived in as a basis for future comparisons; NFLX created this niche, and has shown that it can be profitable; others are now moving into this niche, and will continue to do so until it is no longer a lucrative trade. NFLX simply does not have the size to create enough meaningful barriers to entry. I still like what NFLX is doing but I'm kind of thinking about shorting it.