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As we all know, there is only one certain way to make money in the market - "Buy low and sell high." only useful for those with a crystal ball. So we both agree that the market always presents us with various levels of risk and uncertainty.
I suspect that a part of our difference is the kind of market transactions we engage in. You seem to describe yourself as a short term investor or what most would call a trader, while I am generally a long term (months to years) investor on fundamentals. I usually look to news (or anticipation of news) for my profits while you are looking to make money on a much shorter timeline in-between news and looking for some sort og guidance when the company is not offering any. Btw, do I assume correctly that if in fact news is released, that any prior TA guidance is out the window, and needs to be reassessed after the news, on the new trading patterns and charts post news?
Possibly the only time someone who trades as I do, might be interested in looking at TA (if they give some credence to it) would be, if they have already decided on fundamental reasoning that they want to buy (sell) some shares, they then might want to decide the next question as to when exactly do they buy (sell) their shares - today, tomorrow, the next day, or next week? They might then look to TA as a vehicle to their timing decision on their buy (sell) decision they have already decided to do. Even someone like myself who is skeptical on the theory of TA, might give it a shot, not having any other basis on which to make the timing decision (maybe it does work?) GIVEN i MAY HAVE NO OTHER INPUT TO THE BUY (SELL) TIMING.
I will certainly feel free to ignore your post. Sojo sounds knowledeable and well able to defend himself, without having someone else squelch the discussion to protect him.
Thanks for the recommended reading.
Well, I am happy for you if it is working for you.
Just curious, whatever prognostication you make from one of your charts, how long does it remain valid? Do you need to update every day with a new chart analysis to keep current? also what scale (of time) due you usually work in? Is it equally valid whether you look at charts in durations of hours, days, weeks, months and longer?
Nope. I am more skeptical than critical. I am open to evidence one way or another. do not want my finances on the head of a dart. I gues, I am more of a fundamentalist. I do believe that sooner or later, a stock will gravitate toward its fundamentals. You just need to hope that your picture (or projection) of the fundamentals are reasonably accurate. Of course that may sometimes take a while. We are all familiar with the famous saying of Keynes, that “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Hi Sojo,
Given that there is a huge quantity of available historical charts of financial data on the stockmarkets, I wonder how many studies looked at very many examples of the historic charting to do TA on them and see how well they fared with their predictions that are now historically recorded as well. We could have a historic sample that is huge. We do not need to restrict this to actual historic TA analysis that was done. Those willing to test this theory now, can do so by simply looking to very many RANDOM sections of financial charts and see how well they predicted the next few days or weeks. It is of course necessary that the selection of test charts be done in a random predetermined fashion, so that the study does not choose a biased group of charts that do seem to predict what the study wishes to show.
Wondering if you know of any such studies already done and can point me in their direction? I imagine there is a large literature on this subject matter. Many years ago I have read "A Random Walk on Wall Street" (I hope I remembered the title correctly) that relates to our subject matter, but my memory of it is fairly vague.
"Often been right" does mot really say very much as 50 correct predictions out of a 100 is nothing more than random! So far as your point about "binary" is concerned, I am in your boat as well as a long. I too believe (hope) that the outcome will be positive, but that makes it non binary so far as the market as a whole is concerned until we get some real news.
I too "read" Sojo's charts and find them entertaining even if I am skeptical as to their predictive power.
Predicting "more than once" does not really say very much! I could be right 50 out of a hundred times and it would still be considered random. So again, predicting "more than once" has very little meaning.
Hi Sojo, as you are a long I find your posts quite entertaining as they more often than not not look where I wish to go. However, if truth be told, I have little to no faith in TA as a scientific, predictive prognostication. If I vaguely understand the claimed basis for this type of analysis is that it is a measure of the mass psychology as exhibited by the flow of the transactions that are made and thus predictive of where the market is going from there.
I have never really bought into this claim. To me, all of the ups and downs of the chart are nothing more tha a market version of a Rorschach inkblot test, and say much more about the eye of the beholder than they do about the "meaning" or predictive power of a financial chart. I can sit all day and draw in imagined "W" bottoms or tops on any (unless it is absolutely flat) financial chart (at any scale). Or I can draw all sorts of straight lines connecting certain tops or bottoms of a given short period. Even if perhaps there may be some underlying scrap of truth to the basic notion that there may be some small bit of the current mass psyche exhibited in the financial chart, I suspect that there are so many other variables at play that there is enough noise in the "message" that it has little to no value as an indication to to what that chart tells us of the masse psyche .
Furthermore, even if you accept that TA can have meaning, it can only tell us about the present or the past, there is no reason to assume that it can be predictive of the future as the chart can in the present always go either up or down from here (without getting into the notions of momo and trend analysis). We should start with the basic statistical rule that with a unbiased coin, no matter how long the string of H or T have already happened, the next toss will still have a 50% probability, So even if we toss in the "bias" of what the mass psyche has told us (even if we could clearly read that) we have no idea how strong or how long this bias will last as it is continuously changing.
I further suggest that even if you believe there is some predictive power here, this theory only makes sense when the market movemnt is the result of a very large number of players and not based on a very small number of players, as they can change their minds on any whim, at any moment and change the chart in a totally unpredictable manner. So if as in the case of NWBO the bulk of the trades are made by the MMs or large hedge funds, the largest effect on the charts are that of the very limitted number of MMs etc. and thus should be a concern even if you believe in TA.
Finally, in the case of NWBO where the entire chart is a waiting game on certain binary events the application of TA makes no sense.
Senti, I can corroborate with a similar story on the deal to further suspension. Discussed until it wasn't.
the notion that warrant holders are likely to sell is poppycock as a general rule. This may be true if you are not a long, but not so, if you are a long. So a long if say he has a million shares and a million warrants for example, does not see his holding as a million shares such that he can sell off his million shares, because he still has the million warrants should Nwbo become a big winner. If he is a long, he views his holding as being 2 milliom shares and does not want to sell any of them if he really believes that NWBO will be a big winner.
It does not look like he is a speaker at the event. He is the chairman of the session, whatever that means. Does he get to speak, other than perhaps to introduce the speakers? In anycase, thanks for the info Lyriki.
And i am saying that there is no reason to presuppose that the BLA was submitted and the FDA and NWBO are silent on that, rather than the more obvious and plausible, that the BLA has not yet been submitted and there is no need to to suppose a reason for the silence on BLA as we await the TLD and journal publication news.
They seem to be waiting on the Journals. If a BLA filing is already in hand, there is no reason for the secrecy. At this point the news of the filing of a BLA would far outweigh having "their data distorted by barrels of ink whilst they wait." At this point (with good news) their is nothing to fear from transparency.
I do not buy this at all. There is NO reasonable and believable reason to keep the filing of a BLA a secret. Fear of the shorts in the face of a BLA filing may be convenient to longs looking for a reason for the secrecy (other than bad news) is not logical and not the way this usually goes down. It does not pass the smell test. So I do not believe that a BLA has been filed and that they intend to remain silent all the way to approval by the FDA. For me, they are waiting on the publication and should announce as soon as they have it.
In any case they will have to tell us something at the ASM specially if they want a share authorization. they are not going to wait until FDA approval to do these.
FWIW, ehile there may be a few longs now selling a small portion of their holdings, I have no doubt the the large majority of longtime longs are not about to sell off for the "mere" 600% gain they already have on the 11th hour of the huge gain they have been waiting for, for the last many years just as we have but weeks to go to TLD and the news we have waited for.
I for one, would hope we get the ASM via ZOOM. This would be far superior to mere audio. Hope LP starts seeing pressure from others to do the ASM via ZOOM.
I now suspect that as the time for the ASM starts to approach with the need for a raise in share authorization, (March - April) and the notice required for it is nearly upon us, that the TLD and publication info will come as a series of slightly spaced PRs. thus I speculate a sequence of PRs something like this given that management is probably well aware of how the publication discussions are going and an expected time line: 1) Notice of the ASM with share authorization on the agenda (Possibly end of feb - early March), 2) TLD along with PR on date of expected Journal article (possibly end of March - early April), 3) Publication in Journal (thereafter - but the actual date of this publication will govern all the other timelines as this will be well anticipated by them).
Is it possible the 8K was the reason for the late day jump is SP? Perhaps the news that NWBO filed an 8K leaked a little early, but the content of the 8K remained unknown. Some may have assumed it was some good news possibly the pending TLD. Instead they got an 8K about the auditors. What does that mean for tomorrow?
Perhaps "Recent clients wins" refers back to the time when NWBO was still on the Nasdaq - stretches the word "recent" a bit.
I imagine that how long the different vaccines provide immunity will not be the same. So perhaps the J&J will be different? Do we know if the immunity received from Moderna and Pfizer last for different lengths of time?
I think the vaccination rate here in Canada is lower than in the US. I have been thinking to put off my vaccine for a while as I likely have some immunity from when I was positive with Covid in March. So I do not have to rush and be the first to get vaccinated. I can take my time and see how the J&J and others will be, and where the side effects are the mildest when we have a sample size in the many tens of millions.
There is a cartoon with two rats talking to each other:
1st rat: Are you taking the Covid vaccine? 2nd rat: Are you crazy? They haven't finished the human trials yet.
Did you have Moderna or Pfizer? Do they both have pretty much the same side effects?
Thanks for the complement LC, but I think we take different meanings from my post. Your approach is since this is not happening in the medical world and there is total silence, means that they do not believe that it works and there is nothing here for us to waste our time on. while my meaning to the post is quite the contrary, as a prod for the medical world to open their eyes and push for rapid FDA consideration of a possible new SOC in the world of cancer, and rapid movement for people suffering from this scourge who are dying every day while they wait and wait ...
I presume that the journal would be the preferred choice over ASCO. Is that correct? Would that depend on which journal we are talking about?
Can one submitt to both a journal and to ASCO or must you do that serially once you have been refused by the first?
Same question I asked the other doctor, Have you tried to enter any of your patients in a DCVAX-L program? If not, why not? I think that professionals like yourself should be clamoring very publicly for more information and more accessibility for your patients. But all I hear is total silence, and no pressure on the FDA to move this along quickly! They did it for Covid, why would they not do it for cancer (specially the very deadly GBM) that is so muxh more lethal. those stricken with this horrible disease do not have the luxury of time, as it seems the FDA does.
For example, if the Gov & FDA were enabled to spend as much money on GBM vaccines even before we know they work as they did for Covid - could you imagine where we might be today in testing DCVAX-Direct? Not waiting years to scrounge money together from toxic financing and taking many years!
Curious. Was there an attempt to get him into the NWBO compassionate use program in the UK? Was the attempt made, but he just progressed too quickly?
Did you ask why so much care is necessary if the trial results are highly successful? they should speak for themselves without special handling and care. This much care would imply that the results are less spectacular and therefore need more care in how they are handled and shown to the public.
For what it's worth, I have called LG numerous times over the last several months, and often, he could not take the call because "I am on (or expecting) a conference call from the UK" - never a local (or US) call. Just sayin' ....
You are right. Until it is uplisted off the OTC, NWBO will not qualify to be in a TFSA.
I think you have a good grasp of my problem. I hope I can find a solution. this is something that the US/Canada tax treaty should solve - but it does not. Like you say I am hoping to stumble across someone who has the same problem, there are many US expats who have this problem. I do not have an arm or a leg to give away.
My problem is really worse than I indicated. I am a dual citizen and file in both the US and Canada. In Canada I can have what is known as a TFSA account that is tax free under Canadian law but not recognized under the US law. So it is taxed by the US. So I am looking for some way to get what I already have in a TFSA also into a Roth so it will be tax fre in the US as well, but I can only do that in the Canadian institution that already holds my TFSA.
Can an expat living in Canada open a Roth while in Canada at a Canadian insitution?
Reefrad posted:
Evaluate, you need to reread what I wrote, it really was short and very clear. I clearly meant that Germany usually follows the US market lead rather than leads it, with the clear proviso I included, that there there is no new news during the gap!
I suspect, it is more accurate to look at it as 18 hours behind us - unless of course there is news released during that gap.