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Morning Bootz
have fun with PGCN - it is outta my league.
Altaire: Short Term investing is a helluva lot riskier.
You may well be right, but I have done quite a bit better since I started a disciplined (for me) approach to taking profits and avoiding losses. Most of the shortest term has been on the loss avoidance side, but....
The big money I make in AAPL during the winter was short term, going overweight in the fall and selling both calls and shares between the start of the MacWorld keynote and the earnings report. I did not consider that at all risky - even if AAPL had soared after the earnings report.
OT: Bootz anytime I wake up to find myself owning a $7 OTC BB stock.
I own two such stocks. Both are natural resource companies and I bought them based on resources owned or controlled by the company. Both are multiple baggers over the past year. I have owned one for a year, the other for a bit under a month.
I did run across an article this morning that purports to have a strategy for consistently profiting from OTC: BB stocks. It is based on a life-cycle of OTC stocks line of thinking. Here is the URL http://www.otcjournal.com/news_images/FB_Ch_1-BB.pdf#search='bb%20stock%20listings'
Hope the URL works. I do not intend to use the strategy, or to look for opportunities in OTC:BB stocks that do not surface through other research that I do.
I think CWPC may well be listed on a senior exchange within a few months. Edit: They have applied for such a listing.
http://www.canwestpetroleum.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=133057&_Type=News-Releases&_Titl...
tomm
First, I am long, but not way long. Stop losses would take me out before the first point I mentioned.
Second, I did not state those as expectations. I stated what my reaction would be to those levels. It would be similar, I suspect, to the reaction of a batter to a hanging curve ball coming down the middle of home plate.
By the time I built a fire, the edit window had closed, so here is the edited version of my post
Me, I'd be perfectly happy with a continuation of the down move through and after the next earnings report. I'd be happy at $55, thrilled at $50 and absolutely giddy below $50.
Also, how does one get arguably certified as a fool? :).
"Cada loco con su tema."
Bootz: you'd have to be an arguably certifiable fool to hold this stock through the next earnings report.
So may we assume that you have sold most of your position?
You may be right, for those who do not hold core positions that they will hold through hell and high water - and there are those among us. I have such a position.
Also, how does one get certified as a fool? :).
tomm, I thought that blog was by an Adobe engineer, not an Apple engineer.
I'd be curious what your "outside" timeline is based on.
Full quarter of MacBook Pro availability
Full quarter of Intel Mini
iBook replacement introduction (MacBook?)
Real Video iPod intro
Anticipation of back to school sales
Anticipation of holiday quarter
Anticipation of Intel Tower sales
Anticipation of iPhone
and to a lesser degree, progress in enterprise storage and server gains - these are going to creep up, though.
Could be derailed by reduced consumer spending
Economic slowdown
Transition hiccups
Other items I am not thinking of now.
It is enough for me to keep my current position for now. If there is a mini-run into April earnings, I may sell 1/3 to 1/2 of it, though - cause I see that as a major short-term challenge.
I view Beatles lawsuit as a non-event at this time
Try PGCN
Not going there :). I am 99.99% invested right now. That will probably last for a week or two. Portfolio at all time high, but not by much. It has been bouncing around in about a 5% range over the past month - I'l like to see it break-out. May not happen till AAPL starts climbing consistently again - a phenomena I expect to start sometime in the next 3 or 4 months at the outside.
I made a pretty big move into CWPC and could sell enough on Monday to take the cost basis to zero for a position that would account for 3.5% of our combined IRAs.
This from Stephen Roach is well worth a read
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060324-fri.html
Stephen Roach (from Dubai)
My travel schedule is planned months in advance. It was only by happenstance that I found myself in both Beijing and Dubai this past week -- two of the more recent flashpoints in a US-led pushback against globalization. What I found in both cities unsettled me -- disappointment and frustration over America’s attitude toward two of its major providers of foreign capital. The United States has been having a good deal of trouble with its overseas image in recent years. The feedback from Beijing and Dubai is that this image is going rapidly from bad to worse -- something a saving-short US economy can ill afford.
China is deeply troubled over the outright hostility from an increasingly xenophobic US Congress. The senior officials I spoke with this week in Beijing protested on two counts -- China’s fragility and America’s penchant for scapegoating (see my 21 March dispatch, “Inside the China Debate”). On the first count, the Chinese don’t believe that US politicians appreciate the potential risks that still lurk in this transitional economy. Instead, they are pressuring China as if it were operating from a position of much greater strength. China remains very much a tale of two economies -- a booming coastal region and a lagging interior. Most in Washington view China from the lenses of Beijing and Shanghai, and conclude that these two thriving metropolises personify the emergence of a powerful and mighty nation. What they don’t realize is that only 100 km away from either city lurks a China that has changed very little in the past thousand years. Yes, 560 million Chinese now live in urban centers around the country, although probably less than half these city dwellers have seen meaningful improvement in their standard of living over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, the rural population of some 745 million Chinese still tries to get by on $1-2 per day.
At the same time, despite 25 years of 9.5% real GDP growth, serious vulnerabilities continue to plague the macro structure of the Chinese economy. The financial system has only just begun the long march toward liberalization and development. Growth continues to draw the bulk of its support from external demand (i.e., exports) and autonomous internal demand (fixed asset investment). Self-sustaining growth from the Chinese consumer is deficient, reflecting a pervasive sense of job and income insecurity that stems from ongoing reform-induced headcount reductions. Far from letting the invisible hand of market-based capitalism drive price-setting, the visible hand of administrative fiat still plays a major role in the determination of prices of goods and services in the real economy, as well as interest rates, the currency, and the prices of many other assets in the financial economy. All this speaks of a Chinese strain of market-based socialism that is still far too fragile to stand on its own.
China also feels that it is being victimized for America’s structural problems. Premier Wen Jiabao was crystal clear on that point when he ended the recent China Development Forum by stating, “It is unfair to make China a scapegoat for structural problems facing the US economy.” There’s no dark secret what he was referring to -- China’s important role as a provider of goods and financial capital to a saving-short US economy. As long as America has a serious saving problem -- and, of course, the US net national saving rate plunged into negative territory for the first time in history in late 2005 -- trade deficits are a given in order to attract the foreign capital to fill the void. If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down US trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short US economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere. Undoubtedly, that means a higher-cost producer would have to take China’s place as a low-cost provider of capital to the US -- imposing the functional equivalent of a tax hike on the American consumer.
When I pointed this out to Senators Graham, Coburn, and Schumer in Beijing, Senator Schumer said, “I understand the structural point, but China still has to give.” The editorialist in me says, if Washington -- or for that matter, beleaguered US manufacturers -- really wants China to give, then it needs to make that argument from a position of a macro strength and boost America’s national saving rate. Until, or unless, that happens, US-led China bashing is nothing short of political hypocrisy. In the meantime, Washington could well be about to compound one of America’s most serious structural problems -- at considerable expense both to the US and Chinese economies. These are the “lose-lose” outcomes of globalization that can only end in tears.
In Dubai, I was met by a similar sense of consternation. Fresh from the wounds of the rejected Dubai Ports World transaction, several major private equity investors in the UAE were blunt in expressing their sudden loss of appetite for US assets. As one seasoned investor in US companies and properties put it to me, “As practitioners, as investors, we have become very shy of the US -- we just turned down a recent deal for that very reason.” Another added, “For us, foreign direct investment into the US has become far less palatable due to recent developments. The bulk of our dedicated offshore money is now going elsewhere.” The comment that unnerved me the most took this exasperation to an even deeper level. One investor asked, “What can we do to push back, to send a signal?”
I certainly don’t want to make too much out of an unscientific survey of a few private equity investors in Dubai. But up until recently, this was one of the Middle East’s most pro-American investment communities. The individuals I met with this week are seasoned participants of many a cross-border transaction into the US. For them, the political shock wave from Washington has come from out of the blue, and they now see little reason to go back to the same well -- especially given the wide menu of less contentious alternatives available elsewhere in the world. In the broad scheme of things, Dubai is a small player in the world of international finance. But to the extent that the Dubai backlash is emblematic of similar distaste from other Middle East investors -- hardly idle conjecture, in my view -- the repercussion cannot be minimized. Net foreign direct investment into the United States hit $128 billion in 2005 -- an increase of $22 billion from the inflows of 2004. If that trend now starts to reverse course, America’s already daunting current-account financing problem will only get worse.
From Beijing to Dubai, there is a growing undercurrent of economic anti-Americanism. The irony of it all is truly extraordinary: The US has the greatest external deficit in the history of the world, and is now sending increasingly negative signals to two of its most generous providers of foreign capital -- China and the Middle East. The United States has been extraordinarily lucky to finance its massive current account deficit on extremely attractive terms. If its lenders now start to push back, those terms could change quickly -- with adverse consequences for the dollar, real long-term US interest rates, and overly indebted American consumers. The slope is getting slipperier, and Washington could care less.
OT: Bootz, liking that CWPC today?
Up 40% since my first buy on March 3.
Record day today
and PF at all time high, thanks to CWPC, SLW, GPXM and a cast of supporting players.
Photos of some of the molybdenum ore on Golden Phoenix website.
CWPC - I added yesterday morning, almost tripling the size of my position. Initial shares are up > 40% since I bought them on March 3. I likey.
OT Looks like an opportunity soon to dump any GOOG shares
you might be holding, particularly if you bought them much over $400.
You guys are so cute
when you have these public spats.
Margins are much higher on a percentage basis than margins on hardware.
Ain't that right?
UAW / automakers
Bad management was and is at the core of the auto industry problems since the early 1970's. UAW an underserving bogeyman.
my last move was not too long ago at around $67 :).
AAPL - Advantage was taken of the dip to make one more buy of AAPL at 62.55. The future will tell whether I took advantage of the dip or the dip took advantage of me :). YABO, baby :)
U.S. SEC backs rules to list iShares Silver Trust
Tue Mar 21, 2006 11:45 AM ET
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday it has approved rule changes that will allow the American Stock Exchange to list shares in Barclays Plc's <BARC.L> iShares Silver Trust.
"In effect, purchasing Silver Shares will provide investors a new mechanism to participate in the silver market," the SEC said in an order.
Each Silver Share will correspond to 10 ounces of silver, the SEC said.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22280324
Looks like the steam has run out of the recent AAPL upgrades engine.
Capitulating? Got cash?
REDF - wow, I dropped it when it hit my downside limit - which was not all that long after I bought it.
OT Bootz
CWPC - have held it for a week :).
Oseola,
If you have been reading me you know that I have a core AAPL position. If the train has left the station, and I see no current evidence of that, then I am on board.
I'd be delighted with a disappointing earnings report. What evidence do you have for the quarter looking better than expected?
In any event, I am positioned for either outcome.
Good luck
I'm hoping the quarter is fracked. Big time fracked. Warning fracked. 15% haircut fracked.
My hopes may be in vain, but that is what I am hoping.
why use smiley applause
gotta mix it up lango.
tomm, If we had smileys for applause
I would have pasted a bunch here. Well said, and concise.
Tomm, profits going up in smoke
Been there, done that :). Have avoided that kind of smoke pretty well during the past year. I tend to sell much more quickly these days in order to avoid losses / lock in gains.
Thanks tomm. I know another old aapltalker who likes some of the REITS. I put them on a watch list. I went considerably longer mining shares this week, but it may just be for a short term trade.
FWIW, it may not be much, I went longer mining shares this week.
Aurizon Mines (AZK on the US side) may be worth a look - seems to have enough financing in place to get a mine projected at 175k oz a week in Quebec running by the end of 2006 to early 2007. Other than that, it was pretty much going back to my usual suspects, which for now include GG, SLW, NG, GRS, and AUY. Also have a dash of Orezone.
Golden Phoenix had news yesterday and may react with some more upward movement - or not :)
As I have read the board over the past few weeks, a quote from a Great American Convict comes to mind on a regular basis:
Nattering nabobs of negativity :).
I imagine I will buy one of those MacBooks when they come out. Don't need a Duo for what I will use it for. Price will not be much of a consideration for me - but the difference between the Pro and the iBook replacement is great enough that I would not consider the Pro, unless I strike it rich or something :).
bond ladders
Not me, I am still doing aggressive growth *g*
It is working so far.
OT: Molybdenum
I received an inquiry via PM about the molybdenum company I mentioned. It is Golden Phoenix (GPXM - GPXM.OB if you are looking it up on Yahoo). My cost basis is .186 per share.
Here is a discussion forum about the company.
Do your own DD. Be prepared for the possibility of it going to zero. I don't think it will, but it could.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22077281
Ron
Tomm, if the Fed keeps hiking
That is one of the factors to watch, along with demand from growing economies (and there are a bunch of them), the value of the dollar and others. The value of the dollar is correlated to interest rates, but it is not a direct 1 to 1 correlation.
T bills look pretty good for a chunk of the portfolio :). My mother is very happy with the increase interest she is earning on her CDs :).
Housing will go cool to freezing, but there will still be the local variations
I'll go with the Treasury bill money market funds :)
KCMW: For me, AAPL fit that bill a few years back. I think I understood it better than the market, and made money from it. But that is a rare find, IMO. And it took a lot of patience. Do you think the sectors you invest in are poorly understood by the general market? How do you decide to exit?'
Good question.
I have ridden on the shoulders of more knowledgeable people.
Baldy and sfme and fbe first turned me onto precious metals. That was good. I have taken good and bad advice from them and others on the forum and on others. A good part of success is learning what to pay attention to and what to throw out and developing one's own style of investing/trading. I am part way there.
I think many hard commodities are in a multi-year bull market. That does not mean they are going to go straight up, nor does it mean that poorly timed buys will do as well as well-timed ones. I am not talking about precise tops or bottoms, that is silly. If you get 20% of major moves, you can make good money.
So, precious metals, energy, Apple, green energy - those have been winning strategies for me. There are other sectors that may look good over the next decade - broadly I think health care may be one of those.
The way I generally start out in a new sector is with a mutual fund. It is easier, IMO, to do DD and pick one of the best of breed there than in individual stocks. Then I start learning the sector - companies with good prospects, good management, good resources. It is not hard to learn more about the company or the sector than the market knows - especially in out of favor sectors. That is opinion, not fact.
A combination of sector investing, company picking and some broad fund investing has worked for the past period of time. Taking profits from time to time has helped. Not being fully invested helps. I try to run at 20-50% cash these days, taking advantage of opportunities and cashing in profits.
Not much of an answer, but there it is.
Well, ya'll continue to be
Way smarter than I am. I reckon I'll just continue to make lots of money on this market and wait for the iBook replacement to come out.
The combination of Apple, precious metals, energy and molybdenum have been recording regular portfolio all time highs, but it has required close attention and some nimble trading, particularly in precious metals and energy. When it comes to molybdenum, I'd go with the non-producer that will be first to market. By the time they all get to market supply may overwhelm demand - unless it really has a role in coal liquefaction. It is used in extreme condition alloys, so a gas pipeline from the Great North will have a positive impact on demand.
As always, do your own DD
Moral qualms
No, I also did not for the shares I sold in the 74-76 range.
None at all.
lango: Glad some people are "discovering" what I've been writing for years.
See, I told everyone you was a smart feller.
There are multiple points
That is the point.
Your point is TV-centric