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Seagate is behind the FDE2. product. They are aggressively promoting it. Sam, the project leader, will be at every joint seminar. Dell is pushing the 'advanced security' option on their platform. Someone, somewhere will deploy it. It is very early in the roll-out to determine success or failure. I own Wave and still think it's got a better than even chance of succeeding. Wave needs a couple of thumbs-up on deployment and they are on their way.
Seagate has plans to roll out more FDE products including Barracuda. If Wave gets even a small piece of the Seagate pie - they succeed. There's just nothing to sink your teeth into at the moment save for a sparsely attended seminar.
I will lift up my eyes to the mountains;
From where shall my help come? Ps 121:1
The Sheraton is located a block or so off downtown Chicago's 'magnificent mile'. The Chicago river runs past it with an unnatural blue-green iridescence while upriver the new Trump Tower is is getting the remaining glass panes installed in its upper floors. This part of Chicago is clean, elegant beautiful. The city pulsates with sound and movement, punctuated by distant sirens and taxi horns. I look up in the warm late afternoon and am surrounded by tall beautifully arcitected buildings bejeweled with thousands of panes of glass glinting in the afternoon sun.
The Michigan room of the Sheraton however, is not overlooking the skyline or the iridescence of the river. It is in the basement with a few Wave representatives and two Seagate engineers ready for conversation with prospective customers of the Momentus 5400 FDE.2. One of the Seagate engineers was Sam, who is also the project leader for the Momentus 5400 FDE.2. Sam is warm and engaging. Wave's CEO, Steven Sprague is also in the room. No representative from Dell is there and unfortunately, few prospects are in the room. Word was that word hadn't sufficiently gotten out and there was some murky communication gap with Dell regarding the seminar schedule. Ouch, this not the auspicious atmosphere you might imagine from your desktop with a high speed connection to your favorite discussion board.
I talked with Sam at length. He estimates Seagate produces roughly 145 million drives per quarter. With no previous information about Seagate's production numbers, I am unable to confirm or challenge that estimate. It is a big number. He also says that Seagate has no problems with production of the FDE.2 and has no problems meeting the demand for the product. This is a company that clearly knows how to scale production. I pressed Sam as to why he thought HP would not also incorporate his elegant solution into their own platform. He said they felt their current solution was adequate.
I was also able to get re-aqainted with Steven Sprague. Steven was again engaging, enigmatic, allusive, slightly defensive, informed and visionary. His anecdotes are laced with enough facts and confirmable references to be believable. In the dark basement room of the Sheraton Steven articulates Wave's veil of bright promise and impending demand, however, it sounds thin, faded and worn. I remember, it's time to feed the parking meter and I need a short break.
Outside, the skyline is illuminated by the lights of the windows from towering mountains of concrete and steel. I'm reminded that behind nearly every window of every building there are computing machines - PCs. Most of them are unsecured and unaccounted for, maintained by an IT person who knows there is risk. The risk is not confined to the windowed buildings but in the honking cars, in the surrounding suburban homes and O' Hare. It's mobile and at risk. Somewhere up there behind those glass panes are IT people, CEOs and CTOs who are concerned. They want to keep important, critical data from turning up in the wrong place. It's a shame they didn't know the solution was in the basement of the Sheraton. How will they hear if no one tells them?
Will the word get out to the right people? Seagate's CEO, Bill Watkins has certainly promoted it and they have committed resources to it. Dell's reps are getting trained in the technology of 'advanced security' are promoting it and more importantly are commissioned for selling the 'advanced security' option. When pressed, Sam says the demand will come from the financial industry, They are the ones making the most inquiries and have the available budgets for advanced security. In short, they are the most motivated and in the best position to act. Sam said the military is evaluating the drives, but they are likely looking at 2010 before fully evaluating the product within their own specialized needs and prepared to place an order. The Wave story continues to require patience and faith.
The Skyway - only because I think it is more direct.
Bunnyman - I'll be at the conference. I'm about 6'3 and a little gray on the side. I'm wearing a blue jacket with light slacks. I'm business owner from Kalamazoo. Hope to see you.
One of my interminable questions is; why is Papa Ginos the only known adopter of Wave's central server? I would like to ask what are the TCG members doing in their own organizations to secure sensitive data? How are they managing those tpms? What is Seagate doing, and Dell? Let's keep going into that list - how about General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Marvel, Nec. Motorola? Are those guys using Ebassy Trust suite?
. . . .and what is Dell going to do with their spanking new contract with the Veterans Administration? I want to grab these guys by the collar and . . . . OK, thats my tirade, I'll be much more subdued this afternoon but I still wanna know.
Barring something unforeseen, I plan on being in Chicago this PM for the Dell-Seagate-Wave seminar. I hope to discover the traction they are getting with some of the obvious prospects as well and an over-view of the interest in the market place. I'll have to play it by ear in terms of being somewhat coy or open about my information-gathering purpose. I'm open to any suggestions you may have on my approach, questions to ask or topics of discovery.
Thanks to all. My summary is as follows
- per Momentus FDE.2 shipped to any OEM ~ $1
- per Dell w/ ETS bundle & FDE.2 - $7
WAVE revs from Momentus FDE.2? Could someone point me toward the conversation where it was determined that WAVX receives between $5-$10 per drive sold? As I recall there was some concensus on $7 per drive. Was it understood that this was directly from an agreement with Seagate? Thanks for any help.
Wavemaster - Thank you. (eom)
I would like the link to the DOD's statement requiring TPMs in future purchases. Could someone please post that link. Many thanks.
WhiteEagle07 - you are totally correct. There is absolutely no need for cost-effective data encryption and security anywhere. It's just not a problem. Data is safe and no one is concerned about it at all. Seagate has no idea what they are doing and is clearly a company filled with idiots. Same for Dell. There is no market for these FDE HDDs and there never will be in the foreseeable future. You apparently are a singularly intelligent individual with incredible foresight and vision. Thank you for gracing this board with your posts and I look forward to your regular updates and guidance.
Catalyst or Killer App? I think the killer app for TPM implementation across the PC domain is FDE.
FDE is simple, its contained, it's transparent, I understand how to implement it, it comes with all the tools necessary to make it work, its cost effective and it's not built on a proprietary standard. If I work in a bureaucracy, I like it because it has NIST certification which gives me cover in case something goes wrong after I install it.
I'll add a bit more. Dell is not bundling Wave to make Wave money, they are exploiting the TPM infrastructure to sell more Dell computers. Same for Seagate. In each case they are leveraging the TPM infrastructure to their advantage. So Dell is exploiting TPMs to sell more computers and Seagate more HDDs. Wave wants to exploit it to sell software.
So, the ubiquity of TPMs is creating new markets and business models. There will be many companies who exploit the existence of TPMs. I think it's worth keeping and eye on.
USB - I think SKS is making an analogy in regard to PC infrastucture. Lots of companies sell stuff that utilize a USB port. Maybe Bluetooth would be a better, but not perfect analogy.
The real point here is a scarcity vs abundance model. The scarcity in PC computing today is secure data, both at rest or in transit. Good entrepreneurial models take advantage of scarcity and create an abundance. TPMs are creating the infrastructure allowing for the abundance of security. Wave is taking advantage of that infrastructure to fill a critical need. SKS may be making a somewhat clumsy but useful analogy to USB.
Hi Go-Kite. Ya, you could get a good laugh I suppose. It was more his observation, nothing they had specifically outlined to him on the down low or anything. He connected the dots quite well with mostly anecdotal stuff. As I said, I thought it was plausible at the time and tucked it away as an interesting way of interpreting certain developments. I guess only time will tell.
Helpful - As a "Gilderoid" I have followed this thru SIGM. Interesting connection. I appreciate you pointing it out.
I had a interesting conversation over a beer or two with SKS at the last Gilder-fest (ie. Telecosm event - Lake Taho). Many at the conference thought he was a bit obnoxious - he constantly was bringing the conversation to TPMs and Wave. I would say he is a sharp, observant and connected. He was certainly cordial in conversation. I guess he sold me on Waves prospects and I have seen nothing that has not impressed me with their progress.
He is convinced that Microsoft is moving to a desktop services model ($10 per Mo and we manage your desktop for you - software included). The idea of managing a setop box remotely is another step toward implementing that model. The key piece to securely managing your desktop is the TPM. He would also say that MS does not want to reveal their hand. They are content to have TPMs proliferate until it becomes feasible. He says Vista will be the last major software release. All future upgrades will come through the remote service to paying clients. He had many other examples of how MS is testing various parts of the model.
Hey - you got to say it was interesting at least and quite plausible.
Thanks AWK. I thought NISTs recognition of Seagates drive was very powerful. It seems that the Military / Indutrial complex will be the hole in the dike that becomes the gusher. The Dell -Northrup_Gruman could be the first domino in a long run.
WAVX has a compelling story with many real-world confirmations of it's progress and impending success. That said - does WinMagic compete with Wave? Are they offering a similar function -they won a nice contract from the DoD for data encryption that seems like it should be Wave's space. Thanks to anyone who would shed light on this.
My bad. I wrote that I presumed you had no NDA, however, you had. I thanked you twice in my post for your report, but, in case you missed them - again, thanks for the report, I really appreciated what you were able to share.
Thanks Wash aqain for a nice report. I am quite dubious about WAVE's mandate to keep mum on certain details. If they disclosed something outside their own office walls to you or anybody else - it's fair game and they know it.
Companies who want to keep information closely held know how to do that. If it was said outside a Wave-only meeting then you have no obligation for privacy and I presume, no NDA. I think by telling you and others not to disclose certain info - they knowingly generate more buzz and hype. Thanks nontheless, for your report. StevenDice