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Fidel only because Dr. Jones is doing an exceptionally good job and comes with the best credentials in Trace. So sure, why would I not stick up for somebody I believe who just delivered the biggest idiq in trace? Further to that point, I would what is wrong with reticence when the idiq was announced? HUH?
Best of The Very Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I think the downside has been beaten up and turned to alpo. I think you take Dr. McGann "out of phase"...sure if you build junk that doesn't work as tested- out you go. Don't you think we've passed that specific point say, years ago? I do.
But don't you by your very point that a "close at hand" buy out of IMSC would not deliver real value to long shareholders nor any shareholders save the ones that bought the AM before the Noon PR was released.
You seem to have a deep knowledge of this sector, the players here and their products so that was where I am pointing to.
My own take: swabbing is mostly in-operative for cargo due to volume and is not all that valuable at passenger because it takes too long. ( not sure if you can hear that door opening but....).
Best of The Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo you are killing me! So the ONLY two things that would merit positive posts from you are; ceo bolduc gone, but before he left he sold the company.
Well you just never know, stranger things have happened.
How bout you post your most positive thoughts possible about the FUTURE of IMSC? Would you do that...
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Joe thank you for posting it. All key drivers for future sales. But we still need tsa to put a "times up for Smiths-Morhpo ETD units".
Most shippers don't give a rats tail for everything this info points to. If they did, they would have moved to IMSC's B-220 when we all expected them to. They spent money and now they are being solicited to spend more. That won't move things very fast. Tsa has to pull the rug on Smiths-Morpho units before they can call a shipper and offer a "replace your Smiths-Morpho unit with a new Smiths-Morpho unit for 15% off list, because we love you!"
Side bar to Fidel- Dr. Jones delivered a $162M idiq with tsa. That is a mountain alright, a mountain of cash. But don't thank him, don't say anything nice about it. That speaks more about you than him.
Best of Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Pulp- this is strategic protest-- it makes the refi slow down, get more expensive, draws down IMSC's "treasury" ( it was zero, so where is op funding currently coming from? duh, dmr-- can't finish that).
Why is this happening? Because the Genie is out of the bottle- IMSC landed a bigger idiq than the multi-nats expected and has lined up a list of follow on products that contain a five to 10 year idiq-span ( a new idiq once cert'd.) .The $162M idiq is being spread around other places than just airports. Which answers why no PR on the border order and why the tsa's first airport order was just 1160 units.
I am no mind reader but I can make a half baked guess- a major USA company has seen the opening right in front and close by their offices. They will move now or never, imo, because things have never been brighter from a tech. stand point yet confusing from a shareholder standpoint.
I expect a strategic investment in IMSC within two weeks of Morpho being thrown into the sewer, where it belongs. There I said it. Again.
Best of The Greatest Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- the legislation continues funding for the Department of Homeland Security through the end of February. THIS is danger #1; DHS becomes the football.
So if you are wondering why a ceo tagged 3 times by L-K Law, stymied by a Morpho protest is not out bragging about a $162M idiq, danger #1 is IT. ( even thought the funds are already there and have been there)
Danger #2; the ideas contained in danger #1 make the refi late or expensive or worse, push it back to dmrj to continue the caustic conversion of interest to shares.
Some things the ceo can put a plow in front and push, somethings he won't. Quiet right now is smart. Sure it leads to price decay and what looks like accumulation is actually shares entering the float from IMSC's treasury. We are lucky that more people have not stood quiet on the sidelines waiting for reconciliation of debt and clarity from tsa. Fear not. Tsa is not going to roll over for Morpho. And fear not, Congress does not have a 66% REEP majority to override. However, they will peel off a dem here and there. This is one of those "shotgun gone wrong" political stories that surfaces over budgets. Remember these, Debt will sink the USA in 2 years, its the President's fault gasoline prices are too high, the stimulus will not work, banks should be free to invest in anything ( oddly, that came to pass today). Think about that. Who backstops the greed-monsters? We do. We said we wouldn't after we bailed them out the last time. What did they do? They blamed the US GOV. for its debt. ( that's almost like a punch line).
Best of Quiet-Strong Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo Bolduc is doing what ALL ceos are supposed to do- point the way forward.
When you bought shares, did you investigate dmrj's converts? If not, you have nothing to carp about.
I like a ceo that takes calls, answers questions.
I think I made it plain as day: You nor I nor anyone can hold the ceo accountable for tsa's actions-inactions, delays nor decisions. But hasn't everything either came to pass or is on the way to passing?
Weren't you proposing selling the company for $2 / share?
If you want to accuse the ceo of being dishonest, take it to court. Meanwhile, why bash him everyday? What purpose does that serve? Seriously...name one useful purpose as I believe he has the full confidence of 90% of retail and 100% of insider shares.
Good Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
Doc D good thoughts there! However, don't you think L-K have both upside and downside arguements to make re: .70 inside options? They can take the case forward no matter which way the tree falls.
It may be a strategic tact ( create a legal event that saps mgt. time and energy, let alone money) but I would point them to Facebook's response to malicious legal events. But they are smarter than that...right...
Best of Stellar Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo you said:
[ If you can't be straight with me and other investors? There is really nothing left to be said.]
I really don't follow this accusation, when wasn't the ceo straight with YOU? In terms of Other investors, you are speaking about me. I feel bolduc has been very straight with IMSC investors. He cannot and should not be held in account for changes that occur due to tsa changing its mind re: deadlines- approvals and any thing else that seems to change with the seasons. Surely, this cannot be the basis for your accusation?
[ I believe the company has a chance, I just feel it has MUCH better chance with Bolduc out the door. If you don't like your investors, you should not be running a publicly traded company.]
Again, I feel that most, lets say 90% of the shares don't agree with this. You want to kill the knight that slayed the dragon? Jerry Jones inept mgt. of the Cowboys comes to mind compared to the Pats wise ownership. Bolduc would fit more with Pats mgt. than with Jones' clueless inability to articulate a winning vision and worse, he trips over every decision he makes.
Bolduc took this from minus zero to a 162M idiq!!!!!!! Props are due, not to be taken away, don't you think that is a fair and balanced estimation of the ceo's resume to date. Sure the share price does not reflect that, but seriously, the interest converts are the reason. My guess, Bolduc clears this up as he knows the company will not rise to fullfill its promise without removing that obstacle.
But if I am missing a key part of the story, by all means, enlighten me.
Best of Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I think it would be prudent for a retail stock's ceo to pay attention to retail sentiment ( 92% of ownership or there abouts). Sentiment shapes future actions and the sentiment here may actually be catalyzing some of the events we've been subject to. Or not.
I think any ceo that needs a market for his CLO converts to keep the ship floating needs to know what the temperature of that market is, don't you think. He would be lacking NOT knowing.
Meanwhile, what in the world did the ceo of a company you own shares in, do to you to turn you against your own investment? Do you see how twisted that is...Its like the melted-merged-mangled steel at bottom of the world trade centers, to use a totally ugly analogy.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo to ease your mind and perhaps unclog those ears of yours, I am a very long term shareholder with NO connection at all to IMSC mgt., which I have stated about 15 times, but perhaps you didn't listen.
But maybe you are an insider with a office inside IMSC's mens room-- ah just kidding. But really, explain your ax that you grind daily. Why not sort things out with the ceo? Why pollute the soup you eat? By the way, I am perturbed( pissed ) at you for perturbing ( pissing) into my soup...
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- 45 days if the outcome is good, if it goes till march that would be the outcome Morpho wants.
Is it not apparent to one and all that IMSC has what the world wants. Wants to take away from its owners. Wants destroyed if it cannot take it away from its owners.
Is this NOT plain as day...
Now, you all may dislike dmrj but I do not. I dislike their interest convert but in all honesty, their 8 cent share convert treasure for their first CLO was earned. With that said, THAT 8 cent convert should be what dmrj is playing for. The market has shown them deminishing returns due to the ongoing interest conversion that snuffs out any possible appreciation.
But honestly, are you all amazed that this little tug boat has stood up the fleet? I am NOT amazed. Why? IMSC has gold in etd IP and the diamond in etd R/D. And the world wants it.
Pretty obvious to me.
Rapid fire: world contracts take time, no PRs there until there is a bid round.
- L&K have struck again...they want to draw fire back and drain mgt. Sorry L-K, not going to happen, but if you keep this up, maybe.
- tsa must act to prevent morpho from ruining their "investment" ( yes, they are IN IMSC now in terms of where their time and money has gone and will go)
- the dems must get dhs fully funded. To even have the discussion of partly funding dhs is absurd. Who gives the soldier a gun but no bullets?
- Morpho's stunt, if not thrown away, will stunt refi on IMSC's terms if it goes to March.
Its the age old story,a midget "steals" ( in this creates is the real word) the blind giants gold and the giant wrecks the world to get it back.
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo you have a beef with the ceo, why not discuss that with him? Not sure you can bend the universe to your will in order to even your score with the ceo. What happened between you two?
Best of Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9 the ah-ha moment has arrived. I say: yes we retail shareholders HAVE made the market for dmrj to convert their loans into shares into payment. Yes, mgt. wants us to stay in the stock ( show me a mgt. that does NOT want shareholders to stay in the stock!!!) All of these are true. And fortunately all have reached the point of deminishing returns for the loan holder(s).
Don't you folks get it...? 1. mgt. knows this, 2. dmrj knows this, 3. competitors know this, crap, the world knows this.
But you unhappy shareholders don't realize the "trade" we all "built" together: we have an etd platform that thrills the tsa and they have exressed that to the tune of a $162M idiq. And an obvious tell- tsa wants the next IMSC product(s)! Dhs' other arms are buying off the idiq. Its like a bonanza is forming right before your eyes. A friend asked me, why didn't tsa just place an airport security order for 3,000 units right off the bat? Easy, other branches need those units after the tsa receives its first 1130. But the larger point, many orders will follow as fast as IMSC can produce them. They are hiring. Yes, the company in debt to the amount of some $70M is hiring. A full second and possibly a third shift? Yes. Output higher than 200 units/ month? Yes. How high? 350/month? I can't even guess but real demand is there. But at 40k/unit, that 350 unit output of just QS-B-220s = 14M/month of just QS-B-220s. And what about other units?
Retail investors always make the same mistake twice with their holdings: the enter too early and leave too early. The always do.
Look if a simpleton like me can make these observations and share them with you and if you embrace them as "likely" or at least " more than possible", then stick around and watch the fog get cleared away.
B9 in terms of you "pawning" me off to ceo bolduc with your concerns, well I spoke with him once and the conversation told me, this ceo gets "it" and will get "it" done. But you are welcome to ask him about your concerns because I do not share them to the extent you do. I think that is fair.
I am lucky as you are, that retail shareholders maintained the market and kept this stock alive so the debt holder would stick with IMSC, which has happened. Now, don't reverse or spin what has happened into a stock disaster story because your disenchantment can turn this BACK around. Everybody knows this. Even the ones you might wish not to know, they know.
The debt will resolve. The real value for longs await us soon after. Not many big companies will jump into a small one approved product company and offer full value, but when the follow on goes into the certification channel, the interest level is expressed something like this: Dr. McGann was correct, tsa sees real future value in everything IMSC is making.
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I certainly like stocks that are owned by mgt. but I don't believe I have to call the ceo and ask him about that. I do believe that will happen. Right now, mgt. is chomping at the bit to buy, why else was the seller dumping at that exact insider option to buy range? To me, that was strategic selling dovetailed into the ongoing conversion. Some "thing" wants to stop the very thing that would build back in alignment between mgt. and owners. I hope you see that.
I do believe that we will see mgt. own more and more over time. But a wise old ceo once told me, earn your shares here but diversify your personal portfolio first. Wise? Not Wise? Only those insiders can say.
But your point is fair and balanced and a good one. I think once the ongoing conversion is cleared away, insider buying will be the event that puts this fractured picture back together.
Best of The Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D thank you very much for your keen strategic thoughts. I see the end goal, an uplist event coupled with a downsize S/O count. Nice. Let me put on a set of horns and say: these are dangerous times for our little enterprise as the BIGS have decided to throw everything they can against us. Would they not also meddle in your events and perhaps use a sharper barber tool than you imagine?
I have no doubt that the cap structure needs to be cleared up from what it is now, it makes it much easier for those BIGS to work their evil on the share price.
But a R/S? Now? That could be an event that really does more damage than helps. However, when all else fails...
I am using a couple of principle truths as I evaluate my investment:
1. This company has proved itself as the technology leader in trace, around the world.
2. The cost and process to achieve #1 has devastated the shareholder base to the point of armed insurrection. ( gest)
3. Follow ons will come much faster and easier than the path/timeline that the QS-B220 took. The largest available market is waiting for those follow ons.
4. The company is a prime target for a strategic move by a US BIG.
Summary, for the life of me, how do things get worse or stay the same going forward? They don't. While the company has spoken to inflection points, the owners have not "inflected" along with them. Getting a solid alignment is important and highly likely, in my view.
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I sense extreme frustration that has been poured into a concrete mold. My message to you, don't give up the ship or as John Paul Jones once said: we have just begun to fight.
I hear you, you dislike any talk of a "better price" for your shares. I certainly respect that and you can get your best price today for about $1.18 a share which includes an Advil. ( gest)
If you dislike the future you are resigned to live in the past.
Me, I see a clearing field, a refi that cuts interest in half and pays it out of profit from the idiq that the company has two years to build upon. While that transpires, I fully expect greater things to come from Dr.McGann's workshop and in increasing velocity as the path to perfection has been cut.
And speaking of Dr. McGann's seeming "early" sale of his prior company, I really don't expect him to make that mistake ever again. In that "time" etd was nascent, tsa was curious but now we are staring forward at the final frontier in etd resolution. The first to stand at that frontier will look over the side to a stack of gold.
My hope is that all long term suffering shareholders of IMSC will be there to share that gold with me. But if you don't come along, fine and good and best of luck to you!
The Greatest of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo ah ha, so you think there's a chance for full value! ( gest)
[ Again, nothing is fast with IMSC as they are too small and HAVE NO MONEY! Not sure what you don't understand about this simple calculus.]
I totally understand that. Its been painfully long and expensive. But you miss my point- that pain and expense can now be spread out via follow on products, redevelopment of existing products ( rehab was the wrong word but you now get the meaning) and or substance library software upgrades to existing products.
[Trust me, we go your route, be prepared to take A LOT MORE PAIN, I can assure you of that.]
How can you assure me of that when you nor I know the revised ( improved) financial terms? ( I believe the idiq merits much better terms, don't you?) I see less pain/more gain going forward and you see "alot more pain". Surely one of us is not seeing something, let me know what I am missing but only if you truely consider my points. Some of which are:
- IMSC has an inside track via cradas.
- Hand held spec will be new ( canines have to be retrained as do Smiths and Morpho's hand helds)
- the sub. library is already set but it must be upgradeable
- the surface list is already set but it must be extensible.
- and all the other product features that the tsa has published for resolution.
Maybe you are talking about tsa's method of sample acquisition, ie, if the etd collects sample via this method, the device must be so and so far/close to this/that etc. Sure I get that but don't you think IMSC has a headstart via their QS-H150? ( the QS-150-E is the example of a rehabbed product) Sure, some spec. has yet to be disclosed ( guessing) but some things will remain the same.
I want full value for my shares,nothing less. And so far, we shareholders have created & maintained the market for dmrj to recoup their loans and therefore I assume you want full value too. It has to be more than twice the stock's high for the year, in my view, for a sale next week. But in one to two years, three times the high for this year is my pegged full value on the very lowest side.
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo- great to see them as they were. Now, imagine that the software inside all of those products has changed AND that a second method of detection is added. BAM! Those old products that went nowhere NOW have a place to go and a mission critical need. But wait, there is more, upgrading those dusty old products can be achieved more easily than creating them thanks to, wait for it- no you won't have to wait for it- the QS -B-220 "guts".
Not sure if you noted the change in swab size-shape and most importantly- material. Again, the new "guts" of QS-B-220.
The point is this: the old IMSC is NOT the new IMSC as all that work and cost can now be extended into a re-hab of OLD IMSC products. But please don't take my word for that as I am but a humble investor but I do follow one guiding principle, the tsa is the leading edge in detection tech. testing around the world. No other entity tests as throughly and as completely as the tsa. They also put their money and our tax dollars behind the very best technology available and they have spoken loud and clear- IMSC to receive $2M to develop follow products.
Lets say you were running the company starting tomorrow. Would your first act be to sell the company or to build out full value in the expensive platform you have just developed?
Mine would be: build it out faster and sooner than anyone can expect and get into the tsa testing lab before either Smiths or Morpho can produce a data package for their new swab etds. Smith and Morpho changed their ionization platform or at least a component of that and because of that, they must prove their machines capability.
Do you see the value that is possible and that would NOT require a negotiation once IMSC submits a data package for the next big thing? I do. The risk has been removed thanks to a $162M idiq. You put in the pain, why leave before the obvious gain!
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9 let me play the devil here, using your thinking that the conversion interest rate is pegged to the current 20-50 day ave. Are you supposing that dmrj kept it in this range to keep their sweetheart conversion in a lower range knowing full well they would be the financier once again? On one hand, that makes no sense but the price wall, placed right around the insiders option to buy range made me very suspicious. But it might have been other forces and not dmrj. To which dmrj said: we are a seller here or anywhere but sell we must to be able to gain future shares and avoid the 4.99% filing obstacle, dmrj's stealthy way to play.
The ongoing conversion by dmrj serves the other shorter(s) today-cover tomorrow tactics that are also evident in the price moves.
I think the company is NOW in the position to say: we must avoid more of the same range bound actions NOW or never.
Any thoughts?
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo you must take the tour. IMSC has much more than ONE product as you proclaimed. They have a Santa Workshop of Products! ( seasonal reference to lighten the mood?).
Better still, have you noticed the size-shape of the swab product that IMSC has developed? It looks very much like a "ticket". A TICKET! A ticket to a concert, a game, a flight, an event!!!!
Maybe you haven't noticed that but the NFL sure has. Take the tour, get swabbed. Look-touch feel what's in the lab, ask about about that "shower stall" in the back ( it is an etd portal-booth).
To loudly proclaim " they have one product" is 100% wrong. You can say "they have one product approved by the tsa"...but right after that I would say: tsa is paying IMSC for the development of follow on etd products. Do you not see opportunity in that?
Experience this little exercise: convince me that IMSC is worth more than $5/ share.
Just do that for your own wealth.
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
9horse ( love that name) my guesses as to who would be most appropriate buyer of IMSC addresses two very crucial aspects: an ait builder with proximity to current IMSC R/D lab as I suspect they would want to continue to build QS-B-220s at current IMSC facility but port the R/D dept to their own backroom. But proximity would NOT stop a Rapiscan from moving on IMSC if they felt they could easily integrate IMSC's conveyor/non contact etd platform.
More importantly would be the price negotiation. Since dmrj has de facto control they might be overly motivated to take any price that is say, twice IMSC's high for the year. Nothing says NO WE WON"T ROLL OVER than a renewed line of credit.
Share distribution by dmrj indicates that any dollar "today" is better than waiting for "2" dollars "tomorrow". Mgt. would have to really convince dmrj that significant future value was present in IMSC's IP to prevent dmrj for taking say $3.60 today instead of most value "tomorrow". With that in mind, I see a take out on the ceo's terms ( >500M cap min.)
I know, most longs are so worn down, anything looks better than what has transpired. Dr.McGann can speak to this as he has gone through this before.
If trace detection is going to make it front and center as a full fledged layer in tsa's scheme, it will be developed by IMSC first and that is what drives all value discussions or should drive all value discussions. Once again, Dr. McGann at the table allows for a very informed negotiation from IMSC's side. So here is my guess, we all get what we want, min. $5 if IMSC has a follow on to submit to tsa before end of IMSC's fiscal year. This is certainly just an estimation.
Note to Buffalo- agree that tsa had issues with IMSC's ability to produce product in volume but they decided they could "put capital in" by buying in waves along with grants. Do you not see that? Those questions have been answered for tsa by BAM and now tsa is past them. I also suspect Smiths/Morpho have presented your thoughts to tsa ( perhaps every meeting?) and tsa has said: IMSC's platform for trace detection is so powerful that our security demands it. Once again, Dr.McGann has spoken to "new-evolved" detection specifications that IMSC delivers in its current line of contact mode products. But what about non-contact? Currently there are NO handheld etd products on the tsa's qpl. Think about the gap that deficiency creates? Enter the canines? For a while this is the tsa's version of non-contact ( they actually do contact/non-contact but they can roam, a key hand held specification).
Best of Best Luck Possible to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Shi- the whales ( ait makers) KNOW what IMSC has. For sure. Smiths-Morpho are,well, sharp but not sharp enough to read the cards and get a product infront of the tsa that out-detected IMSC's. At some point, there can be no more gains in trace detection resolution. IMSC will reach that point first, imo.
Have you taken the tour? They have a portal, they have a conveyor capable etd , they have a new hand held, they have the best ip in trace and they have the best mind in trace.
What they don't have is money. My big toe just started tingling meaning, money is close by. A strategic invest into IMSC with a lock up period that is large enough to extract IMSC from debt debacles and give them the operating cushion they need is just what Dr. McGann might say. Give the man a debt free space to develop and a 30M$ cushion and watch what wonders come forth and very very quickly. ( they have hinted at such in terms of PLATFORM). Why shareholders did not pay very close attention to that is beyond me, my big toe started tapping.
Best of The Very Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo yes, its a bit like the game show, "you can have $2 -share today OR you can take what is behind curtain #1".
You make a good point up to a point.
Yes, there will be threats along the way. Those never go away. Right now some JR. wizard is working on a thing that emits sound and records those waves while his computing engine spits our a picture of what those sounds are with a list- game over for trace ionization. I understand that. However, that event still has an approval course to run just as Smith's 600 and Morpho's Dorfo XYZ will have to pass through.
NO, the hard work has been done and won. IMSC passed, crada'd twice, IDIQ'd once. And has an extensible line up of products that will be developed faster and at a much lower cost ( listen to Dr. McGann speak to this when he refers to platform). Further, the products are sitting in the back room awaiting final development, even further, they will enter testing ahead of Smiths-Morpho and move faster through that process via tsa's cradas with IMSC.
Let me try to guess your answer to this very flimsy hypothetical:
a. would you take $2.5 a share done on January 1st
or
b. wait 2 more years for a low end of $7.50 a share, possibly much more, knowing there are threats along the way
I'm in the 2 year line and I think I see you over in line #1...
Good Luck to All IMSC LONGS!
mas I think you have to be realistic here, why anger the lender that keeps you floating- you wouldn't and neither would any ceo until things align to his vision.
Not to grossly inflate IMSC's prospects but, they are stellar once the cap structure resolves. Fully dillute to remove debt clauses, then if necessary reverse which is usually a danger sign for a small cap trying to save a listing but IMSC doesn't really have a listing to speak of.
In my view, they have the platform, they are carrying enough NOL to apply to further development of that platform into at least three very attractive products PLUS possible integration into an x-ray system maker's line.
Lets get the converts done at 100M float so dmrj doesn't decide the deal points ( remember their 8 cent convert today would give them 25% control which makes me worry they would roll over in any buy out negotiation).
Lets get this done ONLY at fully value for the benefit of Long Term Shareholders who have suffered the Levi's, the Smiths, the Morphos, the tsas, the this and that and the kitchen sink full of dishes. Set my people free! Are you with me LONGS?
Best of the Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Kidney good call. Maybe they will dust off the portal in the back room ( take the tour) and resubmit it. Rumor has it, it worked back then and it will work better when hyphenated with added sensors. But the fly in the ointment; tsa was wounded when it put the old puffer booths into service before fully testing them. It worked out, those booths failed after a short period of time and delivered an increasing false alarm rate.
But if IMSC can put a booth in tsa's Atlantic City Lab that can pass muster and detect metal ( fairly easy) then IMSC controls trace detection for the longest run imaginable.
Let me dive into the deep end here- of course they can and will do just that. Reasoning: they have the platform, they have the superior sample acquisition technology and the hyphenated sensor is ready to be integrated. Dr. McGann spoke to the extensibility of the QS B-220 platform ( engine) in the last conference call. I listened to what he was saying and felt a surge of power. He really was pointing way down the road for hand held, for conveyor and for portal. This is the value of the company and one that all long investors must be aware of in any discussion of a potential buy out.
The company has done the hard work, now with funding they can extend the line. And with debt resolution we long term owners can also participate in a very long stock appreciation run.
BUT we do not want to give away the deed to the gold mine for a few franks ( yes hot dogs) or pounds ( as in cake). Are you with me LONGS?
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D again, you are on point. Yes, its complicated due to dmrj holding the convert in the hole. I thought there was a clause that said IMSC can pay off that first/final amount IF it gives dmrj 8 or 10 days notice, which would allow dmrj to convert the debt to 8 cent shares to prempt that pay off. But you can't make an offer until you have the fully diluted # on the table or a signed agreement that they will be on the table at signing.
My thinking, my fellow longs and I will make the most by cleaning up all debt possible and even making dmrj convert to shares to get them all on the table. If that number were 75M shares out today, plus dmrj's convert of another 25M shares to push the number above 100M, dmrj still really sets the terms of the merger. So dmrj's power to settle terms is based on the In-the-hole percentage of fully diluted shares. As the float grows, dmrj's 8 cent convert % of ownership shrinks. ( talk about being in a good position- dmrj has it both ways)
What becomes very grey is how do you fairly valuate IMSC's gold standard IP. Sure, it looks very solid today, what about tomorrow when competitors enter with new technologies?
To me, only Dr. McGann can answer this as he has the only opinion I would respect in regards to the final frontier of trace detection. In other words if he says: IMSC's resolution can get down to 1 part per 100 trillionths, which sort of points to bombmakers needing clean rooms and not dirty cellars or any standard methods, is there any competing technology that exceed that in terms of finding hidden / disguised/ shrink wrapped explosive material? If IMSC has that power locked up in its IP then everything moves toward fully valued and faster than we might think as a larger better funded company can build out the value of IMSC's IP much faster than a debt weighted smallish company.
See, having Dr. McGann join IMSC was really telling to me as he is maybe one of 5 to 8 people on the planet that can predict the future of explosive detection weather by trace or competing technologies. That's a huge value when sitting at any table, even the lunch table.
Good discussions going on here! Keep it going!
Best of The Very Best Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I agree that the ceo did NOT handle very well a poorly asked but certainly earnest question. This one pricked him in the wrong spot at the wrong time. Surely you do not nor you could not think that the ceo does NOT care about shareholder value? How tough would be the phone call from the lender after that comment as they want value as much as you or I. But again, the right answer is: we are building value into your investment everyday with every approval we gain and every unit we manufacture.
If the dynamic becomes the retail investor against the life-blood lender that holds much of this companies future in its loan documents, well at this point, the retail investor comes second. Have your discussions with ceo bolduc led you to believe that he does not care about retail shareholders? We make the market that dmrj converts into that allows IMSC to continue to operate. All those parts have to turn or we all face a very unhappy ending.
I think a common feeling is that: the ceo is working right now to restructure debt and take the pressure off his life and this company. I think the lender would like that also.
If IMSC notified dmrj that they would be paying off dmrj's first loan on a date 10 days from today, dmrj would convert that loan tomorrow into 8 cent shares. And that would be a great thing when you think about it as dmrj is never going to give up those shares because they know they have an investment in a great company with a real significant future.
Lets be done with it, lets reset this to the beginning. Dmrj then aligns with retail longs and with the companies future as it wants those shares to really appreciate and they will.
I think one and all will note, IMSC has a window of opportunity at hand, signed by the US gov. Nothing needs to get in the way of that. All lenders would agree, things have developed the way the ceo said they would so let us not mess with obvious success.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
I dispute your points that the company is not well run. If you review their history you will find the ceo had no options when dmrj offered one. He took it. Then set about to build a product platform that birthed a product good enough to lead the category and thus gain vital and necessary government certifications of product(s). He succeeded.
Today IMSC is left with the capital structure ( "baggage") of dmrj's "save" but they also have an extensible platform that will dominate trace detection for at least a decade. I would not dismiss this fact as it brings many inquiries from an assortment of parties.
I do agree that the issue of capital structure must be addressed and overcome in order to have the company reset to begin again within a new capital structure.
One aspect that attracted me to this stock was the ceo speaking about industry interest which was actually industry doubt. A high level discussion would go like this: we are interested in your product when you achieve tsa certification. Good luck in doing so. Then a phone conversation takes place where that discussion is: we received tsa certification. The silence on the other end of the phone could be imagined as deafening. I never thought you would turns into put me on the expression of interest list.
Nobody thought IMSC would achieve tsa certification. Further to that point, two tsa cradas and one large tsa idiq and one neat sized product development grant.
If IMSC had 125M shares but no debt and the above listed agreements in place, what do you think the stock would do? My feeling is, even with nearly 80% more shares, the stock would easily double from its 50 day average. Now, if you agree with that, and if you are a lender you might make a loan package available at a fair rate that might include a warrant opportunity ( bonus) in lieu of a convertible. I know I would do so readily.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Pulp I agree, trip-wires for insider buying can be anywhere. I also think they have a ice thickness problem by paying interest to dmrj in shares and buying a small amount of shares themselves.
On the other side of the coin, nothing generates interest more than significant insider buying. I would suggest they speak to this after the following conditions: dmrj has converted and is currently shareless, mgt. speaks about the value of IMSC being set unfairly low during a confernece call, five trading days later mgt. buys shares, mgt. states that it will pay dmrj interest in cash not shares from that point forward. To my mind, that does about three things very well; one- it protects insiders from legal threats, two- it begins a share price appreciation trend, three- it requires dmrj to convert loans to shares if they are being paid interest in cash which they would do if number two works.
Best of Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Maeb- private move would be very very messy in my opinion and pit shareholders against the take out partners. Almost very angle in that scenario undervalues the company to enable the underpriced take out. Further, in my view, most of those events take place after risk has been removed and before the company makes a significant sale/sales.
I would welcome any bid that values the company for today and tomorrow. See, the tomorrow part of the deal is where things get dicey. The buyer tries to downplay tomorrow while the LONG position has to support that. A deal in the middle is still not in our interest.
What is a fairly valued offer for today and tomorrow? Lets take sales with the tsa idiq has the projected sales number over 2 years. 162/2= 81M/yr say times 5 = 400M / share count diluted to 110M shares ( after removal of debt- the proverbial fly in the ointment) take the possible value in this scenario at: $3.63, again very rounded-roughed numbers. And if sales get to 100M over those same two years while debt is removed and the share count stays under 110M ( its at some 70M now) you can push it to: $4.54 but you've ignored the treasure chest of the intellectual property. I hope you can see why I want more than $5 for my shares and yet I don't feel I'm being unreasonable nor greedy for my "want".
All of this changes easily and for the better with a second or third approved etd product.
I have read Buffalo's position that time and money are both lacking for development and approval for those 2-3-4th products and here is where I disagree...follow on product development will be a snap. Matter of fact, I believe tsa is counting on this and I also believe that big multi-nationals are flapping their wings like mad to prevent that. I see the tsa's development grant and two past/current cradas as making the difference. IMSC now knows the working of the certification process as well as anyone in the sector today. Likely better.
I would walk away from this on Monday if an $4.54 offer dropped into our laps but I don't see that happening until debt is resolved and a follow on goes into tsa cert. which I believe are much closer at hand than either the company has let on nor the tsa expects. For what those are worth and I certainly expect " I'm tired, I want my money" from a growing group of long term investors--THAT is exactly what an undervalued buyer would count on.
Best of The Very Best Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
Zey and Buffalo both of you are on point, in my view. And both express concerns and fair desires of worn out long shareholders. Points well taken.
Z you are on target, the giant multinationals will spend a few million to injure-limit-douse the competition of an 80M debt ridden small US company. Their spend takes share price value out of the company on the otc everyday. Huge issue for all of us longs. How do we deal with that? Well one way would be, do what THEY want to do, which is buy IMSC shares for a "dime", Friday's price, $1.18. That does NOT serve these giants purpose. So that is one idea.
Buffalo indeed also to the frustration level felt by all longs, myself included. Would anyone offer this company $2.50 to $3 a share plus assumption of debt? I don't think so but you made the point best; IMSC has one product on the tsa's qpl list and same product on the approved cargo list. That stunts the potential for a close at hand buy out, in my opinion.
As we look down the road and try to assess the size-shape-direction of risk for our investments, the largest looming risk is the giant multi-nationals stop IMSC progress, make debt reduction much more costly and fatigue long term shareholders setting the table for a cheap, undervalued bid on IMSC.
Please consider, the amount of risk we faced over the past two years has been removed. That risk was dwindling, spotty sales make debt payment too costly and bring our corp. life to a halt. That risk is gone thanks in great part to a large, eye opening idiq with the tsa.
But once again, Morpho's actions are the twitches of a giant about to be left behind in the etd sector. Sure Morpho has new products for etd but those same products have to move thru the certification process like IMSC's B-220 did.
I think its clear: IMSC will replace every current tsa etd unit in the USA and capture an outsized shares around the world during tsa replacement cycle. The giants cannot stop that advancement but they hope to make it cost IMSC more and thus divide mgt. from shareholders. I think this is fairly evident.
I think a resolution pivot is coming if the ceo can resolve debt ( lower the cost) by at least 50%.
I understand shareholder fatigue as I have a good bit of it myself. I think the fair question to ask is which IMSC is worth more: today's IMSC with some 70-80M in debt and one tsa product or tomorrow's IMSC with 35-40M in debt, two tsa products and a nasd listing?
I would will take $5 or more per share and I would NOT be satisfyied with anything under $3 per share, but those are my targets so thus you get my long winded answers which I do enjoy discussing with you both and other interested IMSC longs!
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo I want the most I can get for the shares I own. Period. A worthy discussion centers on two things; what is the most possible under the best conditions and what has to be done to enable those conditions. I think you have to remove "quick-sell-itis" from the worthy discussion. I also think that IMSC would not realize full value of the intellectual property they own at this time. Sure, someone might try to steal that with an undervalued offer.
What troubles me is the imaginary ( can only call it that) line that appeared to be drawn around the level that insiders could take their options to buy stock, about $1.40. If you think about it dmrj would not care, they would want it higher except for the fact that insiders would be putting valueable capital into the company at a time the company needs it. I doubt very much that insiders would buy those options until the stock is over $2/share.
Some entity wants the price in range, low range. Its either Smiths or Morpho or whoever wants to buy IMSC. That entity knows the misery we long term shareholders have withstood and gone through. The tact is, keep us longs miserable for as long as possible, then an undervalued offer looks like a fillet. To that flimsy tact I would say this: Dr.McGann knows what IMSC and do in the near future. I say near because I sense its an event that will happen before the end of IMSC's fiscal year. This event could easily triple the value of the company, whatever that value rises too after a debt refi. Morpho's cheap shot protest, which in my opinion has no chance nor a leg to stand except they are allowed to file protest. I believe the tsa will overrule it very quickly for the good of US security.
IMSC has the intellectual power worth far more than 150 million dollars ( market cap plus debt). We also know that the ceo has targeted a $500 million dollar cap target. I believe him as everything he has predicted that IMSC controlled, aside from the exact dates, has come to pass. When a ceo is moving ahead and hitting goal points, you have to give him more support.
Its also very important to complete all agreements as signed, which I believe they will as a refi arrangement that lightens financial pressure and stops dilution is in the interest of all long term shareholders and should be supported. Further, anyone who is not in agreement with this has an agenda that is NOT aligned with mgt. and long term shareholders who seek maximum value for every share. Day traders or swing traders or retail hedge players or any of that ilk have no say. This is just my opinion but to me it appears that long term shareholders as a group are about to splinter, making an undervalued offer more likely and sooner than anyone wants. Splintering support would dampen the possibility to achieving full value.
Please support me when I say: Dr. McGann can, is and will do even greater things if he gets the support from long term shareholders.
Hope everyone had a Great Thanksgiving Holiday and as usual, Best of The Best Luck for all IMSC LONGS!
KidneyB- exactly, Morpho is on the outside meaning, no chance whatsoever. How they even get a "right" to file a protest is obscene. That also goes for Smith's.
Read Dr. Jones very smart response within IMSC's PR. ( remember Dr. Jones worked for Morpho so he knows how they operate). This is just more B-S by an obvious loser. In the real world, the buyer would talk to the "Morpho" and say, what is your point as YOU were not invited. Then listen. Then thank them and tell them the award/sale stands and goes to IMSC.
Why would Morpho do this, knowing they could do it but also knowing they will never win- that is the issue. The release going into Thanksgiving is also suspect as Morpho filed it that way to undermine IMSC.
Remember The India Incident- IMSC won a large award and was forced to wait while the Indians went thru their process. It greatly hurt IMSC who was starved for cash and in a very ironic way, gave more leverage to IMSC's lender.
In my view, this act by Morpho confirms the obvious: IMSC is the leader in explosive trace detection and Morpho will do anything to try to undermine that emerging fact. Morpho will lose this before it even begins.
To ALL IMSC LONGS, Have a Great Turkey Day!
Buffalo- finra is reliable, but not exact.They revise their dailies often for otc stocks. I certainly believe there is daily shorting-covering in this stock. The penny players have to eat too. And there is no doubt that dmrj is selling into the float. That's how they make their profit on their loans. It is the way that it is and no investor should have a problem with that.
At some point, long term investors are prevented from selling at levels they think they should be able to sell at because the loan company gets paid first via their selling. This is part of this stock.
I do sense the ceo wants to end this pattern according to the terms he bound the company to. I have no issues with that, as that is capitalism, again, the agreement we shareholders agreed to when buying the stock.
The issue at hand, how does the ceo resolve this situation and allow the company to move forward? While we all spin our wheels contemplating this, I believe right now is a key pivot point for IMSC as a decent refi deal allows the stock to rise according to the companies merits and repays dmrj all that they are entitled to. This allows longs the their opportunity to profit.
Looking at the ceo's background, he is the right man for this job and I believe he knows what has to happen and will do that. Dmrj will leave much much richer, Bam will maybe stay and play another round at a lower rate and IMSC will live upto its full potential and long term loyal shareholders will receive a profit on their investment. This will be a great story of how the US capital system worked to keep great ideas alive in the face of fierce competition and against the most dangerous of times. You will get richer. I will get richer. All will end well. The big question to answer is; how much richer? Since we are not lenders all we can do is spit tobacco juice and talk about things as they happen.
Best of The Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Brady- agree that it was not a good thing or a smart thing to say to a shareholder. But the ceo still has a gun held on him, matter of fact two guns. And here's where it gets dicey: come 3-30-15, if BAM is not paid bck with interest, they are entitled to the IP. And they won't take shares unless they get them at dmrj's conversion price. ( whats worse than one dmrj?...)
That is the parting of interests so to speak; BAM wants to be repaid but can literally steal the IP and reconstitute to continue to fill the IDIQ if not paid back. Dmrj wants everything they can squeeze out of this "turnip" but they get left out if BAM walks away with everything. So while dmrj has to be pushed out of the stock for this company to succeed, BAM is the closest threat, in my view.
Its possible for BAM to own the IP, then license it back to IMSC and or "others", but this keeps dmrj working on the stock and I don't think they can remain in the stock and have the company grow/run to its full potential.
So the "leverage" ( can't call it real leverage) is with BAM. Matter of fact, you can easily conceive of a BAM-DOOR plot, if you will, if IMSC does not receive refi relief. You could also work this threat against dmrj because its over and gone for them if IMSC does not get refi relief and BAM walks away with the IP. That's far too dangerous of brink to take this.
Doc's strat to have someone buyout dmrj's 8 cent loan for 50M is a bit over the top because if you have $50M to put in, you likely have $80M and you'd want both BAM and dmrj out for that amount. But that would make them the owner and mgt. is left as employees unless its structured creatively.
Knowing Smith's and Morpho's days in etd are basically over, you have to expect they are lurking and or making a move if they intend on staying in etd. And this is exactly the potential of IMSC, the future of etd which is non-contact at very high resolution with very low false alarm rates. To my mind, IMSC owns that. The tsa has pointed to that and acknowledged that of sorts ( cradas, big idiqs) so now plenty falls on the ceo and the bod to get busy.
And Doc did point to a major convert - sell down if dmrj thinks it's all BAM's to love and cherish. Meanwhile, I see every PR as pumping more dmrj shares into the float just on the toxic convert on the interest. Alot of permutations on "how does this resolve favorably."
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D- can't say I know much about SBA loans but they are an arrow in the quiver.
I think a strategic buy in would be an option, but one that has to be large enough to extract dmrj out of the stock.
After that, its more dmrj like options, none of which are THAT much more attractive but anything is an improvement on the terms they hold over the stock.
A buy out now, well, the whole scenario says: lowball and not fully valued. So today, I dislike that option, if it is a lowball attempt. Drs. McGann and Jones have a card to play here as they are greatly incented to find that buy in entity.
I sure would have liked to see mgt. convert at 1.4 if the stock had reached 2.01 or there abouts, which aligns them more closely with common.
As I said, another product gets into tsa cert. process and the value goes thru the roof, imo so we might see a stopgap kind of deal to take out some debt, provide operating funds and allow them to get a product ready for data capture.
Doc- what do you see happening, if you had to boil out the giddy thinking, the hopeful ideas and deal with just reality come Jan. 15th-- note, I think your $3 take out is not real today.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Fidel- think of dmrj's strangle-conversion scheme as an ownership transfer vehicle. Its funny, a buyer is always ready to scoop up whatever dmrj dumps and whenever they dump. Then the shorts join in, which of course then sidelines dmrj until the price stabilizes. They reset and wait for the next dump-bait PR and repeat the above scenario.
Who is that ongoing buyer? That's my question of the day.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D- great post, grounded in reality and the math used is sound. Thanks!
I think the part of your thesis that is contradictory is the value today vs. the potential value when viewed within the domination of etd and integration of non-contact etd into eds. This is where the buyer can really bamboozle the seller. ( I don't think they will thanks to Dr.McGann-- he has been a seller before so he knows what he owns)
If you think about non-contact, the tsa has nothing it wants to buy in non-contact while the most promising products possible are coming out of the IMSC R/D-shop.
So to my mind, if IMSC can get past 3-30-15 in some reasonable way ( SBA loan under 9% ) and deliver a non-contact product with a quality data package by May 1st-- then things could get real interesting. I must admit, seeing fully diluted over 180Million is depressing as I looked for 125Million outstanding but that seems to be a pipe-dream now.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Ted-
- IMSC has to pay dmrj out of the stock...nothing good can happen as long as they are holding the stock in a conversion choke hold. Today was simply "dump-bait" to get dmrj to sell shares. Not intended that way, just the way things work out.
- I don't see any buyout forming until dmrj is gone and the BAM agreement is renewed or better, closed out.
- key event, that I believe triggers a buy out move-- when IMSC submits a quality data package for either an inline conveyor enabled non-contact machine OR a hypenated hand held referred to as the Hx or the QS-150-E. This event predicts a new approval cycle- new product opportunity as tsa expands the etd layer in passenger( hand held and conveyor) and cargo ( conveyor version).
- a conveyor enabled non-contact multi vortex headed machine would close out this niche for Smith's and Morpho as differences in 1 part per trillion-th particle capture is the final frontier for finding scant trace. That resolution becomes the goal line of sorts for all the players and right now I see IMSC crossing that goal sooner than other players.
IMSC has a very important IP set that predicts more than 2 more products that will NOT take as much time or money to develop. Dr. McGann has referred to the B-220 as a platform meaning he can use much of the parts/software that make the B-220 work and place those in other configurations. This is exactly the language that a potential buyer wants to hear. However to insure that, it makes sense for that buyer to wait until a QDP exists for the product. That's the catalyst moment, in my view.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!