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TMNA is already current. I noticed this whole most posters are still asleep.
theBear
Is the float low? I don't agree. Based on my memory it is more than 200 million shares? I forget where I came across that number. If I am mistaken what is the number? I think the situation is quite the opposite of what you state. If the float in TMNA is higher than the total number of shares in TIO the strange thing is that the number of shares traded in TIO is often 10 times higher than the shares traded in TMNA.
It is true over a certain period that the pps of TMNA is not up. On the 6th of April I bought 70,000 shares in TMNA as far as I remember. This modest number of shares pushed the pps up by several tens of percent to almost 40 cents.
It is also true that somebody or some shareholders is/are selling shares from time to time. The trading is strange at times since a lot of shares are traded at the bid. The person/persons selling seem not interested in getting the best price. It could be naked shorting or market-makers going short for some reason. But the total value of those shares sold is very modest compared with the value of the shares in TIO that are traded.
The way the stock price fluctuates in TIO is rather strange too. It could be naked shorting or stop-loss selling. I have seen the same sort of selling in BDCO. Several days I have seen massive dumping during the first half hour after trading opened and the pps largely revovers quite fast.
aandt It's nice to know that we now have a person who is very proficient when it comes to doing dd aboard. Here is the most important number from the 10-K: "Net Income (Loss)
$ 451,253,456" For some reason I have had to move one of the commas. There are about 1.2 billion shares. Net income per share therefore appears to be almost 30 cents versus a stock price of $ 38 cents. For TMNA Inc the p/e is just a bit above 1!
What matters though is that TMNA shareholders are to own 75% of TIO after the reverse split of both TMNA and TIO which is supposed to result in about 520 million shares outstanding.
aandt I assume you bought TMNA rather than TIO. The latter rises faster but TMNA is up from 35 cents to 39 cents today too. There seems to be a fair chance that in coming weeks TMNA will rise a bit faster than TIO. I espect the quarterly r eport for TIO to be good and that this may arouse more interest in TIO. We are still waiting for the audited annual report from TMNA. If things go according to plan we will have our shares in TMNA exchanged for shares in TIO in about two months. Then we should benefit from the advantage of having bought shares in TMNA rather than TIO.
Dawg The press release is very encouraging in my view. It gives very detailed information and looks convincing to me. The discrepancy in pps is now so high that I was unable ti ignore the urge to sell 2,000 shares in TIO and buy 11,000 shares in TMNS, increasing my stake to about 178,000 shares.
dade I must admit that I am very surprised to see that the pps has appreciated more than 50% over a relatively short space of time. The inveterate optimist who has been purchased millions of shares at the bottom seems able to sell now at a nice profit.
downthehatch If I have not misunderstood there are no market-makers on NASDAQ. When I see how this stock trades I get the impression that short-sellers generated a substantial dip from time to time. The pps drops several percent in a very short space of time. This has happened several times within the first half hour of the opening of trading. It also happened yesterday. This does not have to be explained by somebody or some in a concerted effort trying to take the pps as much lower as possible. It could also be explained by orders to sell if the pps falls to a certain pps. That sort of thing is not uncommon. I have seen the same sort of thing happening in BDCO. But in that stock there are market-makers who could in theory at least generate the big drop in the pps when they see that there are few buyers. It is also assumed by some that the cause of these sharp drops of the pps is short-selling and possibly naked short-selling.
I agree with you that the real value in this stock is in the African business. Therefore about 85% of the shares I will have when there are reverse splits in both stocks are now in TMNA. This stock trades at a substantial discount to the shares in TIO. In dollar terms TIO may trade 30 times as much as pink-sheet TMNA. But this discrepancy varies from day to day. The day before yesterday the pps of TMNA was especially weak and more than 300,000 shares traded, which is much more than the average volume. It looked as if there was an attempt to take down the pps.
thirdman China has a lot of refining capacity abd it is increasing. I found the following when I checked the subject: "In 2022, China became the world’s largest refining market by capacity, at 18.8 million barrels per day (MMBPD) in 2022. This represents an astonishing increase from 2005, when capacity stood at only 8.5 MMBPD. And the surge is unlikely to stop any time soon, as capacity could grow to 20 MMBPD by 2025, although some analysts see a pullback in domestic refining capacity this year as several outdated facilities are phased out."
downthehatch "That should be enought to support a price of between $4-6, in my opinion.
Also, consider that the CEO just bought another 10,000 shares at about $2.50/share. I doubt he would have done that if he thought the shares are only worth $2.50."
I assume you have more insight into this matter than I have. In case your assessments are well founded I agree that should be able to support a pps between 4 and 6 dollars.
10,000 shares means next to nothing for a person who owns almost the whole company. I attach very little importance to that. But he may well think that the shares are worth more than $ 2.5. What could be one reason for him to buy more shares is that he is very optimistic when it comes to solving the precarious debt situation of the company.
In some cases insiders make very mistaken purchases of shares in their own company. I know one case where the pps is down by about 75% since an insider purchase during the last 12 months.
My view is that it is impossible to predict with a fair degree of certainty what sort of earnings per share will be this calendar year. I think it could be two dollars or less than one dollar. I think like RD that earnings per share will be quite good during the first quarter. The stock market also pays attention to the next few years after the first year when it comes to this type of industry I think.
I noticed that you did not comment on the crack spread in the futures market over the next year regarding jet fuel. I have the impression that jet fuel is very important for BDCO. RD at least onde expressed an opinion on what the crack spread had to be to break even. My impression BDCO will make little money from producing jet fuel if the market's expectations regarding the future crack spread come true. Lastly I would thank you for drawing my attention to a particular stock. You would have made a lot more money if you had sold all your shares in BDCO and moved the money to the NASDAQ alternative of this company. At least my NASDAQ shares have already appreciated more than 60% since Easter.
RD As you know (if I remember correctly) I sold my last 5,000 shares not long ago. Even if I had not found another investment opportunity where I am up about 66% already I might have hanged on with low expectations. One reason for that is that I checked the future crack spread for jet fuel. It was so modest that BDCO could only expect to generate modest profits. The year 2022 was probably exceptional when it comes to profits I think. The company will presumably remain profitable I guess but with much lower profits than last year. Long-term prospects are pretty dismal for oil refiners I think since it is in a sunset industry. I got a profit of a few tens of thousands of dollars from this investment but could have made very much more if I had read your private message when you sent it and not when the pps had soared to almost 2 dollars. I bought shares up to a pps of $ 2.38.
Johnstown Today TIO is up more than 10%! More than 1.5 million shares have traded at prices up to almost 2 dollars. That amounts to roughly 3 million dollars. In TMNA shares worth about 120,000 dollars have traded. the big question is: If TMNA represents a company that is a scam why are people ready to pay about 30 times as much for getting shares in the scam in an indirect way as those dumping the scam shares are getting in return for those shares. After all the business that is not the business of TMNA (the African business) generated a loss of more than 20 million dollars last year. There is no good reason for pushing the pps of the loss-making business up by about 60% in a few days. Your reasoning makes no sense.
Hohnstown Shares worth about 32,000 dollars traded on TMNA on friday whereas the value of the shares traded in TIO was about 3 million dollars, which is almost 100 times more! How come?
Johntown How do you explain the fact that a lot of money was spent last year by the NASDAQ company that merged with Tinco Inc last November to see it it would come out clean after a very close scrutiny. It did come out clean and the merger was carried through.
aandt Thanks! I have just skommed parts of the brochure. I get the impression that the bulk of it may be standard information regarding financial advisors but I don't know.
Dawg The discount is now so big that I could not help buying another 14,500 more shares at 43 cents and selling enough TIO shares to finance it. This discrepany is just too big in my view. The assets come from TMNA after all. I regard this as of interest if the merger were not to be completed by TMNA losing its quotation and those who have bought shares in this ticker getting a pre-determined number of shares in TIO instead of shares in TMNA.
Dawg I am not sufficiently sophisticated to have any insight in the intresting topic you bring up. I know nobody that I know has the insight your question raises.
Dawg I have today sold my last 5,000 shares in BDCO to increase my stake in TMNA to 153,000 shares.
Invest You are wrong. I ask you to check the pps of BDCO. It was recommended to me in a private message when the pps was well below a dollar. A few days ago it traded as high as $ 3.14. It has more or less doubled in not so many weeks due to earnings per share of about $ 2.34 last year. But in this period he has been absent from the board of BDCO. I myself made decent profitt in BDCO that I have invested in TIO or TMNA.
Invest If I remember correctly this stock is down by more than 90% within this period of two years. At a pps more than 10 times the current pps it was hardly an outstanding buy. Generally one ought to be cautious when it comes to stock pumpers.
I found the following information from the amended quarterly report from the first quarter of 2022 useful:
"On October 6, 2022, the Company, MICT, Inc. (“MICT”), and representatives of each company’s shareholders entered into a Second Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger (“Restated Merger Agreement”). The common stock of MICT is traded on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol ‘MICT’. The Restated Merger Agreement is the second restatement of the agreement and the result of efforts of Tingo and MICT to restructure the transaction as a multi-phase forward triangular merger (“Merger”) instead of as a reverse triangular merger as previously agreed. Under the terms of the Restated Merger Agreement, Tingo will create a newly-formed subsidiary incorporated in the British Virgin Islands (“Tingo BVI Sub”) to facilitate the Merger and hold the Company’s beneficial ownership interest in Tingo Mobile. MICT will also create a subsidiary incorporated in the British Virgin Islands (“MICT BVI Sub”), which will be merged with and into Tingo BVI Sub, with MICT BVI Sub as the surviving corporation and a subsidiary of MICT. The Merger will, therefore, result in Tingo Mobile becoming an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of MICT, and the operations of Tingo Mobile, as an agri-fintech company, becoming the predominant operations of MICT. The aggregate consideration tendered by MICT to Tingo, the sole shareholder of Tingo Mobile, will consist of: (i) newly-issued common stock of MICT equal to 19.9% of its outstanding shares, calculated immediately prior to the closing date of the Merger; and (ii) two series of convertible preferred shares – Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and Series B Convertible Preferred Stock (collectively, the “MICT Preferred Shares”). The conversion of the MICT Preferred Shares is subject to various conditions, including approval of MICT’s shareholders and, in the case of the MICT Series B Convertible Preferred Stock, is also subject to Nasdaq approving a change of control of MICT. If all of the MICT Preferred Shares are converted into MICT common stock, Tingo will hold 75.0% of the outstanding shares of MICT. A summary of the Restated Merger Agreement and the actions taken by the Company and MICT in connection therewith are included in our Current Report on Form 8-K/A filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on October 14, 2022. On November 9, 2022, we filed a definitive Information Statement to provide information to our shareholders about the Merger, the Merger Agreement, and the transactions contemplated thereby."
I have skimmed the accounting principles mentioned in that quartely report and found that useful too. It significantly increased mu confidence in the numbers being trustworthy. The leasing income from the smartphones is here very important. The initial value of tje hardware is depreciated over three years. The embedded software leads to roughly half of the revenues of the company I think. Those who use the smartphones have to pay a certain percentage of the value of what they sell to Tingo Inc for instance.
makinez For every seller there is a buyer. Why are there millions of buyers of TIO shares to the tune of tens of millions of dollars?
RD Of course, and it is possible for BDCO to go back to a dollar to if the crack spread evaporates. I have seen that the market for jet fuel suggests a crack spread of 2 dollars in coming months as against expenses expected by you to be 1.5 dollar as far as I remember. There seem to be dumpers without limits in both companies. A rational assessement involves trying to decide on the probability that certain possibilities will actually happen. That is more important than what could possibly happen in my view. I have already presented my assessment in this respect. Only time can show what happens.
RD It is expensive to resort to wishful thinking regarding this stock. I think it is much more likely that the pps will be above 2 dollars within 4 weeks than it will have dropped from $ 1.50 to $ 1.00 in that period.
It may be so that TMNA is currently significant cheaper than TIO. I would based on the information available expect that the pps of TIO will reach somewhere between 5 and 10 dollars later this year. That is enough for me.
TMNA I grabbed a bit more than 20,000 shares today too, taking my stake to somewhat below 120,000 shares.
The pps of this stock seems to be going from strength to strength. The volime of shares traded has reached roughly one million after only about one and a half hours. When will more investors look at the audited numbers of this company and act in accordance with those numbers?
Dawg I bought a lot of TMNA at almost 40 cents. I believe the pps of TIO was then about $ 1.20. At those prices both stocks were roughly equally cheap as far as I can see. Now there is a big imbalance. The pps of TMNA should soar to roughly $ 50 cents to regain that balance.
Dawg Thanks for your calculation of the discount! There now seems to be a lot of shares for sale for 28 cents. I increased my stake to almost 96,000 by selling enough shares of TIO at $ 1.41 to provide the money needed. I have the impression that this is a finacially rewarding switch.
Dawg Thanks a lot for more useful information.
RD I think those numbers were based on 520 million shares outstanding which means that in relation to the number of TIO shares now trading the expectation of earnings per share this year would be about $ 1.20 and twice that number based on earnings per share next year. By the way, I checked my account at my broker and found that I could increase my stake in TMNA by 1,800 shares to 72,800 shares (I had 1,000 more shares from before than the number I thought I owned and that I have mentioned here).
Dawg Thank a lot for your very informative post. I note that most of the slide of the TIO shares yesterday have already been revovered. I own 70,000 shares in TMNA and almost 26,000 in TIO. These appear to me to be very exciting investments.
RD There is a lot of liquidity in TIO. During the few days I have followed this stock it has been very volatile stock. It should therefore based on that experience be a good stock for clever traders. The pps was up from $ 1.20 on Maundy (?) Thursday to $ 1.40 yesterday and then again back to $ 1.20.
gosox I have for decades known that naked short selling is illegal. It may have been more than 20 years ago I was invested in a company with the ticker JAWS. There were hundreds of thousands of posts on a certain board. There was a lot of selling and the pps was not doing well. There was a lot of discussions regarding the reason for this. One explanation was that there was naked short selling from brokers in Canada. I have later seen several statements that naked short selling does happen from Canada. When it comes JAWS it turned out that the leader of the company (his second name was Smith) had been selling a lot of unregistered shares (fake shares in a way). He ended up behind bars.
I repeat that it is the job of stock-brokers in the USA to sell shares short to reduce market fluctuations. When there is a lot of demand for shares and the pps can be expected to soar sharply the market-makers sell shares short to dampen the rise in the pps. After the pop the pps usually falls back again and the market-makers cover their positions at a lower price than what they sold shares short for - if they have understood what would happen correctly. I don't there is a time limit as to how long the market-makers may remain short but I am not sure about that.
aandt Encouraging reply I think.
RD I cannot answer the first question. Basically there is not very much difference when it comes to the choice between the two tickers. When it comes to fundamentals the African part which used to be TMNA is the one that generated great profits which resulted in a cash hoard of 500 million dollars for TIO at the end of 2022. You are very good at dd. I suggest you google Tingo group and read the transcribed version from the presentation of the filed 10-K on March 31. There you can see a number of questions answered by the leaders of the two companies that merged as from November last year.
As I guess you know what used to be the NASDAQ part of Tingo Group lost several tens of millions of dollars last year. It may or may not be true that the boss at that company is incompetent at asserted by a frequent poster here. That poster regrets the merger. A have seen no documentation that it is not too late to call off the merger now. Therefore I assume that TMNA will lose its separate quotation in some weeks/months.
The big questions regarding both companies is if the African business is a scam and that the numbers are false. That question was really the first question that was addressed at the Conference call. The leader at the formerly NASDAQ part stated that millions of dollars had been spent buy hiring well-known firms to do a very thourough research of the African business but had found nothing that was suspicious.
On the other hand, the African business is headed by a Nigerian businessman. Nigeria is known around the world for all its swindlers. But I guess not all Nigerian businessmen are swindlers.
The market-cap of TIO is currently less than a third of net assets per share according to the 10-K as far as I remember at the same time that an analyst has projected earnings per share based on a sharecount a third less than the current one (the way I understand it) not much less than 2 dollars per share and almost double that number next year. The market clearly seems to assume that TIO is a scam and that the real numbers are a low fraction of he audited numbers for 2022. My assessment is that it should be assumed that investing in this company involves a high degree of risk since the stock market sees it that way. The potential is enormous if the numbers are true and the projections are realistic. If that is the case TIO could soar to 50 - 100 dollars in a couple of years. What I hope will happen soon is that TIO starts paying a substantial quarterly cash dividend to prove its ability to do so.
Johnstone Has Visa been taken in too? Have several very well-known auditors been deceived too?
downthehatch You must have misunderstood my posts. I don't disagree with your points. I have all along assumed that there is a fixed relation between the value of the shares of TMNA and TIO and that if the pps of TMNA continues to fall and the pps of TIO continues to rise the end result will be the same as if the opposite had happened. By the way. today the pps of TIO has dropped sharply to.20. Volume there is more than 1.6 million. Thus that stock price seems quite volatile too.
makinez The stock market does not seem to agree with you. The pps is down recently and very much down over some months. The pps of TIO is up significantly recently while millons of shares are traded. How do you explain those facts?
Why is it that the pps of TMNA is dropping and is now "0.30
0.00
0.00%
0.261 / 0.30 (1 x 1)" where as the pps was $ 1.39 a few minutes ago, after having been as high as $ 1.42 some minutes earlier?
It is high time that this stock has its own board. This is really the same company as TMNA. Few shares trade in TMNA bur during recent days more than a million shares have traded in TIO (Tingo Group). If the published numbers are correct this stock appears to be extremely cheap. At the end of 2022 cash and cash equivalents are supposed to amount to about 500 million dollars which is not much less than the current market cap of the company. It looks as if the stock market does not trust the numbers. A reason for this is that the important activity is in Africa and even worse in Nigeria which is well known for all its swindlers. But of course this does not mean that the leader of the African activities of this company has to be a swindler too. I find it hard to believe that Visa as a company has entered into an important agreement with a swindler.
makinez "Pay up the $5Milly termination fee as detailed in the filing and MERCER be gone." What do you refer to? Can you substantiate it by a quote?