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Chris,
on your hypothesis of capital flowing from INTC to AMD common for hedge, you might want to look at the first half hour of todays trading session. I would wager we have seen some of it there.
K.
AMD delivers midquarter update for CPG
http://olympics.reuters.com/audi/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=6898451
I mean this is nothing official, maybe not even of SEC-relevance.
However, Marty is not exactly a Newbie, so you bet it was given per ordre de Hector. A week before Intels official midquarter-update - well i guess you guys know what to make out of it.
Isn't the pattern quite similar to what we saw last quarter?
K.
bobs
Good for you. I mean if it's the last sentence of Dude's post what she said.
K.
mmoy
I see. Thanks.
K.
p.s: From the time WinX64 is RC1, I hope things will accelerate in terms of driver and software releases - but it's more knocking on wood than holding my breath.
mmoy
What does that mean?
K.
Mike, jj
Thanks much again for data and processing it (in no time).
And for the column. It is interesting what it does. It actually adds more than I thought. Gotta watch it for a while and see what it is
K.
jj
No further column for Distributor #1, to begin with.
For #2, A column (inventory + backorder) would be more telling then either of these colums alone for volume.
But this would still be a static view. Dynamic view (timeline) could be added by the percentage-change of the column above. (Which now requires to look at two tables of consecutive weeks)
Hope this is more clear.
K.
jj
Thanks much for adding the price/percent column.
The reason I suggested to add percentage-change colums for quantities was to identify movements of sweetspots. In this respect, for Distributor #2 sum of inventory and backorder quantities would be more appropriate than either of the two quantities of the table alone - although it still lacks the timeline-dimension, pointing to trends.
Consequently, as Distributor #1 without backorder-quantities, the percent-change of inventories could be rather misleading, so it should not be added there.
K.
p.s: Do with it whatever you like. If that would be nothing at all, absolutely fine.
deleted - duplicate
jj
I like it. Thanks much for the work. It would not difficult at all to add columns "change from previous week in percent" for numbers and prices if you have the original data in excel-format, would it?
K.
bobs
Err. Now I know.
K.
bobs [edit-OT-stuff deleted]
Thanks for looking it up.
K.
bobs
Neye_eve already posted a link. In stark contrast to IPF, this one is not even embryonal. Three years out. Nothing to care about for the near future.
K.
bobs
Hopefully the death of Itaium will be a very long-drawn-out and painful affair for INTC
Well. I did not participate in any discussion about IPF after I buried it quite a while ago. I thought after that it's somewhat necrophilic, you know, descecration of corpses stuff. But then, when I look at IPF as a Zombie I could entertain wbmw and/or chipguy with some comment here and then just for the fun of it
K.
neye_eve
Thanks. I see. Three years out (at least).
K.
bobs
Apologies for incorrect adress of last post.
Yes, nforce2 was a great success in my book, because it penetrated corporate accounts.
I was quite disappointed to learn nVidia is sticking to the non-IGP manufacturing model for nForce4. Don't know what the reason is.
K.
bobs
Could you pls wrap up what 802.11n is about? Thanks.
K.
wbmw
...and now with ATI coming on board, AMD has/will have some of the best chipsets available, and the best graphics, Integrated and not, to boot...
I knock on wood. All what I see right now is features on paper. Which, in ATI's case, is not enough to make me show any signs of being delighted for this reason: ATI M-10 grafics in my notebook on paper is capable of a feature called POWERPLAY, basically c&q for grafics. Unfortunately, this feature is MIA somewhere between the brochure and my notebook. Now, it is possible that I am just not sharp enough to make it work. Maybe sb can enlight me?
K.
Keith
Well, I believe to understand what you have in mind saying "overall competitive" :), insofar i would not argue here.
It's an understandable business decision in many stakeholders interests - nothing to do with own preferences imo. I am highly confident IBM is listening carefully to what customers tell them, knowing there will be an inflection point where when it is in the best interest of its stakeholders to change horses. Again, not necessarily to its own preferences (which probably would be Power anyway ).
K.
Keith
It is alot more simple than that imo. EMT64 is a lousy kludge. To be more specific: it sucks badly. So if I were Paul, i sure would avoid to mention it as well.
K.
ChrisC_R
I believe the hedge-style shifts of capital you outline did happen already, happen as we post and are likely to continue for quite a while.
K.
Keith
I could not agree more. Considering this is silicon from a juvenile process just entering volume manufacturing, it's nothing short of impressive. I am delighted - and very close to excited. I can hardly remember the last time I was excited from anything in this industry. Guess it was 'bout five years back when I learned about AMD's plans for the Hammer-Architecture and saw Fab30 executing on Copper-K7s at the same time.
K.
Keith
Sounds like in the good times of old AMD, doesn't it?
K.
p.s: Maybe we should not be surprised much; Ed Stroligo was suspiciously calm recently :D
tecate
http://www.intel.com/intel/finance/pricelist/index.htm?iid=InvRel+LeftNav_Pricelist&
Look for mPGA 478.
K.
tecate
What I said is there were shortages of 8xx chipsets last quarter. Which in the meantime have been filled by VIA and SIS. I mentioned it because it is an indication where demand was (and I belive still is) shifting to. Now there is platforms enough for this demand - but a lack of CPUs for it.
I think the ballpark of bin-sweetspot I assume in Intels inventories is common knowledge of the board already. No need to repeat it all over again.
K.
tecate
Well, boatloads of parboiled rice do not help much when customers want Basmati.
Remember there have been shortages of 8xx Chipsets last quarter amidst a glut of Mobo-inventories. Shortages are most probably for Socket 478-CPUs then, for value-products in both (DT and NB) segments, because this is where I see demand is shifting to currently.
K.
tecate
Think along the line Intels overhanging dies are not the flavours Acer wants.
K.
Tiger
Well. I really wouldn' expect Intel to shut down if DELL decided not to sell its stuff for a while.
And single-sourcing has proven extremely successfull for DELL in the past - I would be even inclined to go as far as it is basically essential for its business-model.
But it would require 18 months of transitioning phase offering both brands to move customers. That's why it would take the first steps anytime soon. So, Kevin's statement to provoke initiation of this transition comes at the right time now.
K.
tecate
I am not sure. If Dell sticks to its single sourcing-model, just changing its supplier? Not gonna happen anytime soon, but it is feasible in two years or so. Frankly, the impact of this I dont think is priced in yet. On neither side of the supply-equation, btw.
I see AMD working feverishly on pulling in schedules for 300mm ramps in at least two fabs, even by means of rather unsusual ways using whoever they can find with 300mm equipment and some capacity. (ATDM)
Hector did not give me the slightest impression of any insanity. I am very confident there is good reason doing all this. And good reason for stating the capacity would be good for 50M CPUs (only) after the measures yet announced.
K.
hellraiser DK
I am not sure. See my post to tecate for my thoughts about it.
K.
tecate
I agree in all what you say. And i think it is clear sticking to Intel only is the strategy of choice to maximize income on a short-term horizon for DELL.
Speaking out publicly what your company does currently sell is (in part) inferior technology I understand as an attempt to prevent DELL from selling its longterm future for some short term profits.
Which is truly the role of a CEO in contrast of any line-exec.
Now, if you assume this statement has been made in accordance with Michael Dell and the board, my speculation is groundless.
For my part, i have difficulties to imagine it is indeed.
K.
upndown
So all we need now is a couple of 90 nm. versions of this to really make things murky :) !
Don't you worry, mate. Fabbed as we post. Boatloads or 'em. :)
K.
mmoy
Lol. Very nice read. Thanks for pointing to it.
And yes, I am absulutely fine with the common's behaviour today as well. Being confident about the longterm perspective, I did even enjoy the steep-down of the rollercoaster in the first half-hour, knowing some more anxious hands are getting shaked out and fresh money coming in. Next the common demonstrated it can easily climb a buck in just 20 minutes, scouting terrain to be occupied later.
All in all, nice ball. Rock'n roll for an hour, then just slow fox and waltzes to relax. Good. Got some work done then.
Looking forward for more of those Friday's Tango-sessions anytime soon. :)
K.
OT Duke
Its possible. If he did not present his assessment to Well's beletage before publishing it, its even probable.
Talking about being fired, I would think Kevin Rollins deliberately chose to bet his job on a policy change at Dell.
There is times in life when you have to decide whether buying an electrical razor to avoid the mirror for a shave or just take action according to what you are convinced is inevitable.
In societies where status counts more than integrity it's good to see there is people around acting so.
K.
Duke
There you have it. Opteron: a class of its own.
K.
fpg
While I am polite enough not to comment Michael Masdea's projection at all, what you compare is WSPW(eek) on 200mm and WSPM(onth) on 300mm.
What you have in bold after the number contradicts every hint we got recently, btw.
K.
mmoy
Thanks much for this link. Sounds pretty good. Will follow these recommendations to see if it resolves this issue.
K.
deleted - duplicate
paul
They do carry a 512K 2.2GHz S939 3400+ as well
This would be a silently introduced part then, right? Or did I miss an announcement?
K.
mmoy
Ok thanks. Any update appreciated.
As for the Acrobat issue, apart from its Version 6 is really a pita for the bloated code, problems for the embedded app on public releases have been confirmed by almost everyone I know using it. In 1.0 it managed not only to kill FF but System when closing it once. (It did not get a second chance, I am back on the preview currently).
K.