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Hi Aimster,
That article got my attention so I wanted to pass it on to the board. I have no idea how any, if any of it plays out in the coming weeks or months. I'm happy right here on the sidelines. Which means its time for Tom to beat me over the head with his IYE chart, and tell me to wake up and get back in the game.
Hi TF,
////My question is .....Do you want to hold cash (or treasuries) or hard assets like gold , oil companies, copper, or real estate? Does the dollar actually strengthen during this process or weaken?/// I do want to hold cash(Money Market) for now. I'll switch to treasuries as soon as I here of any funds not being able to maintain $1 per share or rate cuts because of defaults. How could the dollar strengthen with the USA drowning in red ink? Real estate here is a sad joke.
Epic Bear Market?
Has anyone else read this? http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx The part about turning $1 into $20 bothers me the most. 2.2 trillion in money markets may not be safe? So, as the few at the end of the pyramid don't repay on time, the domino effect kicks in and these derivatives and borrowings get driven straight into the ditch? I thought I was 100% liquid? Maybe not? My 100% dry powder room may have a leak in its roof. One good hint of this happening and I'll have to switch over to all treasuries. Ken
Hi Grabber,
I did forget to mention ALRY which also is closed. I believe MKGP also may have lost its market makers since I'd left(ouch). Yes all Aimed except the Vanguard High Yield Fund which was Sychrovested recently. No, not pick up but I will start over on new programs. IYE is one I'd like to own on the next ride. Heck, I see were up today, so with me out that should clear the way to Dow 20,000 easy,,,, and in short order too! LOL! Or maybe this $80 oil is going to put a wet blanket on every thing, we'll see.
Hi Steve YTD,
+ 19.56% YTD so far as of 8/31/07. BPG,HMGP,MKGP,TGC,ADES,VWEAX,RYTNX,,, all closed positions currently as of 9/12/07. Firebird is 100% cold hard cash. I did not include our emergency fund which sits in a bank max- saver account at 5.00%. I also have a real tiny bond fund I've not done much with in recent years, looking for that dividend to pay my utilities some day! Best luck to all here, I've never done well in Sept- Thanksgiving time frame so I'm sitting out for awhile for the low risk enviorment to return. Maybe that crash will come on the 26th, then I'll start shooting ducks again, Ken
Crash on Sept 26th, 2007?
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/crash.htm
Hi Tom,
JMHO but I think the high end housing market and the middle is slightly losing ground to treading water here. Clearly the lower end housing here is in shambles. I know when we got our first loan the bank wanted our skin in the game. Whatever happened to lending standards? Hope this doesn't happen to your community, Ken
Hi AH,
Intersting idea you got there. My only thought that comes to mind was the Telephone Switch Newsletter idea. Several chops across the 200 day avg in few months could cost some capital as you'd be buying on the cross up, and selling on the cross down,, and these chops(faints do happen). No system is perfect but you have a good idea there. Much of the real gains do come after the cross up on the 200ma, and one would need to be in the market. Ken
The six year cycle? + or -,,,,
Seems I heard this not long ago(past month or so). Some of the oldest, wisest cusses in Britain only stuff their portfolios with stock after every major crashing,,,,, say 1982?,,,1987???,,,1994ish???,,, 2001-2ish?,,,,, 2007?????? 0r 2008???? Anyway, they are said to liquidate slowly, I would guess mechanically and periodically over the next 60 months or so after an event,, to get back to all cash and wait for the next crash,,,,,,, caution,, I was napping on the couch with CNBC on when I may have heard this, Ken
At the end of the day,,,
It all comes down to AIM having enough cash to work and having a stock/fund/index that will rebound in price. Nobody had enough cash in the last crash or the ?"&^$ to stick it out as our favorite funds took 80+ % haircuts. Ken
Hi Tom,
So is the other shoe going to drop? Based on this local story you can see why I'm negative. These kind of foreclosures have never happened here before,, never ever! Greater Lafayette, has Wabash National, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, Subaru Isuzu( now building 100,000 Toyota Camery), Purdue University, Fairfield Mfg,, our unemployment is very low yet we are setting records in foreclosures around here. There are empty houses everywhere, even in West Lafayette,, the link,,,, http://www.wlfi.com/global/story.asp?s=6980531 Is this the same in Wisconsin? Ken
The Liquidity Magic Wand
has not been waved yet! I'll try and get home early this week to watch the crashes unfold the last hour of trading again. It's cheap entertainment! Ken
Hi Aimster, Due Bill,
What you are refering to is called Due Bill. If you sell your shares after the record date, the new buyer(who actually bought your shares) is entitled to the new split shares. You've already been paid your $1 for each XYZ share, so the new owner gets 2 shares at $0.50 on the distribution date. Ken
Hi TF,
that was a decrease in the rate from 4.69% to 4.09 % intraday. I've never seen 60 basis pts in one day on the 2 yr Treasury. Lots of buying, I saw my money market fund has swollen from $69 billion to over $92 billion in less than a few weeks. Ken
60 Basis Points?,
On the short term Treasury in one day? What? I don't think that's ever happened! Where's the liquidity? We know all us Aimers have it! Is this country a mess or what? Ken
Hi Aimster,
I just wanted to thank you for that work. I do appreciate your efforts here and I read and re-read them. Clearly AIM beat DCA, Synchrovest, and Twinvest in that example. I too have wondered to myself how to tweak other averaging systems, and get a better result with even less risk than AIM. Seems like Jibes did some work along these lines years ago, but never finished did he? I missed a few opportunities to sit down and talk with Don Carlson. I must get that done sometime. Easier to talk and exchange views than type them. Ken
Hi Aimster,
Thanks for your work on ASG. Just ran a quick AIM test on PCA, same dates, 50/50 by the book, $5 per trade, 10% safes, etc,,, 1623 shs to start at $3.08,, results = AIM $6777 profit,, 10 buys,, 17 sells,,$500 trades or higher,,,ROCAR 126.3%,,,Avg risk 53.7%,,, this of course uses the adjusted prices,, Aim on, Ken
Hi Tom,
I can't wait to tell the usual suspects in my life(co-workers) that I direct my own hedge fund. Small, yet extremely effective hedge fund at that. The look on their faces should be worth $1 mil itself. I'm also 99.9999999999999999% sure that after I ratch up the jealousy in them for 56,000th time over the past 20+ yrs, they are going to keep their money in the bank, complain to me about CD rates, and then run home and dive under the bed hiding from the world. LOL, Ken
Hi AH,
WOW! I guess the captain doesn't want to go down with the rats! Thanks for the link, Ken
Hi MM,
Nice little dividend you got going there too with UHT. I like it! Ken
For Don Carlson,
Hi Don, I can't respond to your private messages, I'm a freebie here. Did you factor in the 26% dividends paid over the past 3 1/2 yrs in that equation? I believe the adjusted price is around $4.90 or so from that period, so just shy of 18% gain with just buy/hold scenario based on Fri close. Ken
/kick Synchrovest up a notch/,
Hi Aimster, I'll be headed out for a little vacation this week on Tue. I'll be taking Super Power Investing with me to read. I just can't find anything I like better than Lichello in the book stores these days. I'll be trying to kick my golf game up a notch, see how long I can hang onto par before I sock one in woods/water/ or 4 lane highway. Intersting idea to try and modify Synchrovest. I'll be thinking along with you on Synchrovest. Ken
Hi Tom,
VWEHX down another 1% today. AAAAAAAAAAOUOUOUGAAAAAAAA! Dive! Dive! Looks like someone hit the recession button in the junk market. Vanguard usually only swims in the shallow end. 100's of bonds in this fund too. Yields getting more to norm now. Ken
VWEHX,
Sinking like a rock. Time for Synchrovest to kick in some more $$$.
AIM for a Million Home Study Course,
I will be in Michigan the week after next. I recieved a phone call last night on a 3rd set of the audio tapes and study manual for the home study course narrated by Lichello. Looking to add to my stock market collection when I get there. Ken
Hi Tom,
Thanks for the link. Did I hear rates in England have been raised to 5.75%, or was I dreaming that? Ken
Hi Grabber,
Hey Steve, I just had to laugh a little today. A friend of mine and I used stop losses yrs ago with a software trading program we had bought. My memories remind me of all the times we got stopped out during the day, only to have the stock surge upward from there. Seems that must of happened over 90% of the time. Manipulation? Yep! Congrats on those great stats from June and YTD, Ken
Hi Tom,
Ann Arbor, Michigan
AIM Audio Cassette Tapes,
I have now obtained a second set of Robert Lichello's audio tapes. My collection of stock market junk decorates my home office. If only I could re-coup all the money I've spent on golf clubs thru the years, I'd have my second fortune. Aim on fellow Aimers. Ken
Wow Tom,
Congrats! You have great skills and insight my friend. With your experience its no wonder someone privately stepped up to offer you a deal. Best of luck always, and may the power of Mclaren Orange always be with you. Ken
Hi Tf,
Leveraged?
Hi Don,
Sorry I missed you a couple weeks ago. Co-worker in Virgina, etc spelled nearly 60 hr weeks for me, thanks for the invite though, Ken
Hi TF,
LOL, you got me!
Hi Coach,
I'll have to dig thru my old software. I got a free program yrs ago, I believe it was with my Wall Street Jounal subscription. It allowed you to add in any work pension data, Social Security data, etc,, along with picking many other of the what if variables. I thought it was most useful in putting in what you actually have to date, along with SS and work pension to see what you really are going to get at age, 55,60,62,65 etc. Ken
Hi Al,
We built a new brick home 6+ yrs ago now. When I decided to put up hot air panels, I wanted something non-permanent. Placing the panels on bar stools works great right in front of the windows from Oct to Apr. Stored away for now, and most of all wifey is happy Kenny didn't ruin(modify in anyway) the house. All my neighbors want me to make them for their homes. Small nominal fee of course! LOL! Ken
Hi Is,
Whenever I ponder this question, inflation always comes to mind as my biggest unknown. Later this summer my son will have been driving for 5 yrs. His first fill up was at $1.19 a gallon, so a triple from then. When I fill out those retirement calculators, I wonder what will unexpectedly triple like gas. Food? Healthcare? Natural gas(HA HA get some solar panels), Taxes? Ken
TF,
I need to explain what? I made a indoor solar panel. I have 2 of these, one is larger than the other. The one I explained is indeed for indoor use. I built it for $77 bucks. It's stored in my garage now, I use it Oct til April. Not sure what you need explained? but here goes. Outside is wood, covered with clear plexiglass. Inside there are 5 separate channels for the air to run thru b4 exiting. That's up 4ft down 4ft up 4ft down 4ft and back up 4ft and out the hole. The entire inside of the panel is thin lined with flat black painted aluminum, all channnels,,, so air enters bottom left, runs thru 20 ft of sun heated channel, then back out top right side. It's typical for my indoor 70 degree air to exit at 102. Panel has a thermistor, on at 120 and above and off at 80 and under. Extremely simple, extremely effective. If I leave unplugged for a few hours I've seen the exit temp approach 170,, that's about as hot as aluminum is going to get baking in the sun. It sits on two bar stools, about 1/4 inch off the window with a few degree tilt upward. JMHO, but I noticed this little panel I made gets a lot hotter than my carpet(beige) or my white dining room walls that I block the sun from. Why would my Andersen window I put this in lose anymore heat at night than any other Andersen window in my home? I don't understand that question? Nothing is touching the glass windows, nothing,,, so no convection loss here. I want to build a 4 x 8ft this fall to see If I can get my temp even higher on exit and use the fans from both to double my cubic ft air output,,hope this helps, Ken
Hi Al,
The larger is 3ft by 4ft, so 12 sqft total. I use indoors, take screens out, heats indoor 68 deg air to 102 deg, runs non stop on full sunny days, 102 cubicft per min, from about 10:30am til about 3pmish,, cycles on off before and after that,, on above 120, off at under 80,, works great so far, smaller is 2 by 2 1/2 ft, more of just a room heater, both are hot air,, I think this fall I will build a 4ft by 8ft to cover both windows, use both blowers, 204 cuft per min with both,, and just use the one unit,, free heat at this point, Ken
Hi Jersey Al,
Not sure of the latitude, but I live in Indiana(rural West Lafayette) Purdue University is near by. Let me know if you need some clouds, I'll lend you my solar panels for heating and I guarantee cloudy days for months to come! LOL! Ken
Hi TF,
A bit of a different note, I have and use 2 solar panels for heating. The larger of the 2 I built myself for $77 bucks. They are both indoor panels, thus they are currently stored away for the summer(that way no home modifications and I don't look at their ugly asses year round) I've told my wife repeatedly we will not heat this house with natural gas the rest of our lives. It will become too expensive. Ken