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These guys don't have over a billion in assets under their control if you don't get out with a profit while you can.
They want the pps to go higher, but they have to balance that with the ability to exit their massive position. This is a great time to unload a million + shares. You don't have the ability to do that very often in this stock, so you have to take advantage of it when you have the chance.
Eventually, we will burn through it, but it will take some time. That is what happens when you are forced to take a bad deal. However, without DMJR, we wouldn't be here, so it goes both ways.... They did risk a lot.
I think too much blame gets put on shorts and the OTC... I've seen plenty of OTC stocks run pretty hard, so we know it can happen.
We have a lender who can convert shares at 8 cents a pop... Why wouldn't they take this opportunity to derisk a little? They have been waiting on this just as long as we have and they have millions of dollars on the line.
I think you'll see this run pretty hard at some point over the next week. The OTC doesn't help, but it is still possible to have a big gain on it.
It is, but you won't convince anyone here of that.
There isn't a significant short interest in Implant.
The daily numbers are heavily skewed, as they are for most thinly traded stocks.
You can't judge value based on the pps.
We are a $90M company while ASTC is at 50M.
Terms and orders will be important.
If they buy 162 million in 2015, that would be beyond huge for us.
If it is spread out over 5 years, it is still big, but not as monumental.
Why did you post this?
We ran higher than this on the qualification alone, so it has been shown that we can go higher on the OTC.
Either way, this should be consider a good opportunity to buy.
Probably semi Platinum related... It has nothing to do with the OTC.
Who cares where it is as long as the fundamentals justify a move higher. It will eventually happen.
They aren’t lying, but they are making things sound better than they really are. For example, the comment about buyers waiting for TSA qualification… That was an obvious exaggeration, but all they needed to do was have one entity ready to buy after approval and it is okay to make that comment.
They make the comment, get qualification, sell to South Korea, and then say “look, we were telling the truth when we said there were entities waiting”… In reality, all it really does is show us how long it should take to close the deal IF buyers were actually waiting for the qualification… Now we know that November 10th is too far out for it to be true regarding other buyers.
The same thing happened for cargo… There were people waiting to buy pending that qualification, but it wasn’t the big market that the company made it out to be. You can say that has to do with the TSA, but I’d compare it to the passenger qualification and how the company obviously misled us on that one.
Landslide of concern??
No one, outside of airport/cargo security, has any idea what an ETD machine is.
Freight forwarders use it because they have to. I doubt they would care if a product was on the cargo list and not on the passenger list, or the other way around.
That's BS... Sales have not saved us from going under. Lenders who can convert shares at a low price and the promise that something big is right around the corner is what has kept this company afloat.
There is no objective set of metrics that you can use to justify a comment that the sales team has done a good job, let alone that they are the life blood of IMSC.
What's the case? I'd love to hear it using factual/tangible information.
It's a process for those of us who have been invested or interested in IMSC for so long.
After years of investing, no one is going to wake up one day and say "well I give up" because you always have the hope that the big news is just around the corner.
The issue is that management has been saying it was just around the corner for the past 2 years...
The competition is going to make sales.
That is okay! We don't need to excuse away the sales they make. They are successful businesses, so they are going to succeed from time to time.
One of Implant's competitors just received a contract in Germany for ETD:
http://www.morpho.com/news-events-348/press/morpho-detection-awarded-frankfurt-airport-contract-for-desktop-trace-detectors?lang=en
They released 2 PRs....
Yeah, but we have the luxury of having one federal government.
The EU is made up of a lot of different entities with different interests.
I'd be surprised if they sold 3-5 million worth of equipment for free... They used the word contract in place of "sold".
The ECAC stuff is more of a "this is what a product should have if you want to buy it, but you're not mandated to only buy the approved equipment".
Think about it, why would the STAC approval process be in place if these guidelines were mandatory?
If they drag things out another 1-2 years, you'd have a pretty good case.
Now, apply that terrible predictability to every piece of guidance that he issues.... That would either make him a liar (most likely not the case), incompetent, or someone who doesn't need to issue timelines.
Then again, Tim Cook has shown that he is capable of nailing almost all of his timelines, so I think investors will let one slide. A pattern of missed timelines is when people tend to become fed up.
I think that is where a lot of us stand.
I'll be gone by the end of the year if we don't get some good news... MAYBE I wait until Jan 15th to see how the latest TSA solicitation turns out, but I'm not sure on that, yet.
We're unsure of what will happen. I think a lot of people are at the point where they might as well see what happens. After all, they've been invested for quite a long time.
Either way, I wouldn't recommend this to a friend or family member.
Sorry, I didn't know that was in response to my question.
All of that stuff is speculation, but we don't need to speculate on the questions I've asked because they flat out admitted that they were being misled by potential customers.
That shouldn't happen.
All of the other stuff is out of their control, but misreading customers is not acceptable.
I don't think they should fire him because it is way too late in the game for that, but I don't think you can argue that he has done a good job up to this point.
There can be a middle ground is all I'm saying. He has done a very poor job in the last few years. We can still be successful, but it won't be because of him. Clout means you have some say with the TSA, too. It means they trust you when you say you can deliver.
All of his previous experience hasn't benefitted us with the TSA or the private market.
The Buffalo to Buzz transition is odd, but it doesn't really matter.
Change the name if you want.. I guess it would have to happen in order to reach all of the people who had placed him on ignore.
Not saying that is the case, but that is typically what happens when traders, who frequent boards, flip sides (by flip sides I mean that they buy shares... anything else is normally negative, but not necessarily short).
I've posted this before, but would a super star misread the market and have potential customers mislead him?
Back when they were making a run at cargo, before they were qualified, they said all they needed was qualification. Then, once they got it, they said that those potential customers weren't really taking them seriously and that they were being mislead.
If he has all of these great contacts, how is that possible? Why didn't someone tell him? If he's a superstar, shouldn't he be savvy enough to know when customers are serious or not?
It was a while ago, but it fits in with the narrative that he over promises and under delivers. It may not be intentional, but maybe he's not good enough to know what the actual potential is?
First, I must say that you asked some great questions and that you came off as very intelligent.
Moving on to the inventory, they said they were making the largest production run in company history in order to have the units ready for anticipated orders. They didn't say "we're underway on the largest purchase order in company history". I believe they brought up the long lead times to say that most of those components had already been procured and that, luckily, they were cheap.
Maybe it was poor wording, but the way he said it would lead one to believe that they would have a significant amount of inventory, in all levels, on hand by the date of the 10K.
I've pointed this out before, but their margin is around 25% (they want to get it to 50 but it isn't there yet) so they wouldn't have been able to meet a very large order at the time of the last release. The hope would be that that will change in a few weeks when we get a look at Q1.
It would need to detect a lot more than the 6 substances listed.
The problem there is that he was really emphatic that we were going to see something by the end of September and you would have thought he would be ready for that. Based on the 10K that wasn't the case.... so I'm not sure what to expect, but I don't put a ton of stock into anything from the TSA/DHS because they constantly delay at best and fail to execute at worst.
In terms of the pps, I don't like to estimate, but I'm confident it will go up with an order from the TSA. On the downside, I suspect it will sell off eventually absent an order, but I couldn't tell you when that would occur.
At the end of the day, this is why there is so much frustration here. We NEED sales to non-government buyers because there is no rhyme or reason for what the government is doing. Sales to other buyers is what will help smooth out revenue trends as we peak and valley on the governmental side.
Yeah, but if you look at the 10K and then reference a comment they made during the last CC regarding the lack of inventory:
"Well, Patrick, what you don’t see in the numbers is, we were down in the handheld inventory, but up in the B220 inventory. So B220 inventory that we are purchasing in anticipation of achieving the IDIQ in an order from the government."
It doesn't make a lot of sense.... I think it will be very telling when we see the Q1 financials in a couple of weeks. If they haven't dramatically increased the amount of inventory they are carrying, I will be disappointed.
We have the product ready to ship?
My point was that the TSA/DHS sets the standards and we build our equipment to meet those standards.
Other customers buy the equipment because they are required to do so by the TSA/DHS. They aren't coming up with things they need on their own and we aren't building special units to meet any other need than the ones that are outline by the TSA/DHS.
Does that explanation make sense? Essentially, we don't need to get a feel for what costumers need because the customers are simply complying with the TSA/DHS. We don't need to get a feel for what the TSA/DHS want because they will come right out and tell us.
In terms of them getting qualification, they will go through the process much quicker than we will, per DHS guidelines. They get an expedited process. Who knows how long that will take, but the fear would be that the TSA holds off on an order until another unit is qualified.
You just said you think the competition has enough clout the skirt federally mandated deadlines to adherence. That would mean they have a lot of clout.
I'm not making that up, right?
When they were going after cargo, didn't they say that they were being told one thing from buyers, but then, when they could actually sell to them, it turned out certain buyers weren't really taking them seriously?
Is that not an indictment of the guy? He has all of these great relationships, but still gets led astray? One would think that a great relationship would lead to someone saying "look, no one is taking you seriously...as a close business colleague, I thought you should know"... Short of that, if he is a super star, shouldn't he have known? That is a big part of sales, you have to be able to read your customer and market accurately.
Am I making this up? I'm pretty sure they said that, but I'm willing to be wrong on it.
We are owners of the company who are entitled to semi accurate timelines and assumptions.
We are entitled to ensure that we have the best people in place to earn us a ROI.
We literally own the company. Typically, as an owner of something, you are entitled to certain things.
That's like saying "yeah, you bought that phone and they told you the battery would last for 25 hours, but you can't complain that it only lasts for 5".
Yeah, it's reasonable for things to be a little off when you're talking about estimates, but there are limits to how far someone who runs a million dollar business should be off.
Also, the TSA is not the only game in town. They pumped cargo and told us certain things that were not true. That had nothing to do with the government... They then came back and said "oh we were being misled...we misread the actual market".... They literally said that!!! That is the job of Dr. Jones! He is a superstar, but he let potential buyers mislead him and mess around?!
"Further, Dr. McGann and Dr. Jones form up a great team. One takes the pulse of the customer and the other turns that into product features."
But that isn't how it works. The TSA tells them what they need to have to get qualification. It isn't some guessing game that you need to "read the market on". It's "we need you to be able to detect these threats". Now it's "we need you to detect these threats and we need you to do it without a nuclear component to your equipment".
Dr. McGann is the only one involved in that.
I again challenge anyone to tell me what this guy is saying that hasn't already been said over the last couple of years.
And we can bash the competition, but one of our biggest competitors just came out with a product that seems to match ours pretty well. We try to portray them as these bumbling idiots, but it looks like they know what they are doing. The requirements changed (non nuke) and they came out with a product that meets those requirements.
That's what kills me. All this time I've heard "oh they can never match our non-nuke tech", but the second the requirements changed they come out with a new product. It's my fault, but I relied on that stuff way more than I should have. You guys don't really know what you're talking about. You rely on management to feed you information and that information has been consistently wrong or misleading (competition can't keep up or timelines off by years sometimes).
I'm holding until the EOY because the opportunity cost has (we've been in a historic market rise over the last two years, but this hasn't moved all that much if you hold shares..which, like an idiot, I have) been so high for me at this point not to give them until then, but I will be selling after that.
I'd settle for 2. Or 1 thing that we didn't know and discuss at length before he started to post.
He's making points that were already made by all of us... The difference is that he's doing it 1-1.5 years later.
What information has he provided that you didn't already know?
I'll take 2-3 examples.
He hasn't really offered a lot of insight, but his ability to deflect any valid point made that refutes his line is strange.
IF he were to work for someone, it would be DMJR... They are obviously converting debt and selling the shares right now, as evidenced by the increase in the float.
Of course, he may be a trader who is looking for the pps to run back up to 1.45 before he sells. It has done that a few times in the past couple of weeks and it looks like someone has tried to make that happen a few times recently.
It's no different than the bashers who refuse to acknowledge a valid point.
The fact that he brings up Jones selling at Morpho and how he kicked our butt is kind of ridiculous. The one thing that is true is that you can't sell these things without being recognized by a government agency(TSA). Whether that is through progression through the qualification process or actual qualification, it is still very important.
Also, I believe the competition sells units from time to time, but I doubt they PR every sell. Even our management team has acknowledged that the big boys do not do that. They said they were going to stop, but they never did.
Yep... I still have faith that we will get an order, but I do not trust company guidance at this point and am not sure what to think because it looks like there is stuff out there from DHS that contradicts each other.
The reason I'm arguing here is simply to see if people are willing to admit any fault of management. You can still believe in them and admit that they have done a poor job in some regards.
They are great with getting approvals... Not so much with generating revenue.
Yes, it is no fair that they told us the IDIQ was coming ONE YEAR AGO and it still hasn't been signed.
I've tied up a lot of my available funds here and they've been tied up for a couple of years.
I expect people to be held responsible for being off by such a significant amount of time.
What a whiner I am!
This is from Feb:
"Bill just said that’s a bad example. He is right, it is. With regards to backlog, our approximate backlog at the end of December was about $3 million. You can see the orders that we booked so far this quarter. We’ve talked a little bit about them. They're well over $3 million right now. Some of those have shipped, but our backlog total is a number that’s in excess of $5 million. And if you ask me to range it, I would say $5 million to $6.5 million at this point."
Also:
"I believe we are above what we’re projecting for those other sales at this point. And certainly the last three months has helped when we booked over $5 million, but that $5 million were on deals that we start going after on December 1st. Those were deals we started going after last March, April and May. And you’re just starting to see that fruition of the sales efforts. And we’re not stopping with that, our pipeline today is bigger than it's ever been."
If you factor in sales since then, we have extinguished the backlog, maybe, but what happened to the pipeline? We know that a lot of the bigger sales were due to TSA qualification (Europe and Korea), so maybe we haven't killed the backlog? If not, why is that the case?
It's not a crime to admit that the company is responsible for inflated expectations. Our point is that they need to tone it down, though it may be too late for that.
So your assessment of the situation is wrong?
They've talked about backlog and the expectations were set by IMSC. They are directly involved with that when they make overly optimistic comments.
"Let me be blunt, we expect to see something from the TSA by the end of their fiscal year, which is September 30th".
That is paraphrasing, but that is what Glenn said 2 CC's ago. You can't make comments like that, along with saying a TSA order is the golden goose, and then be surprised when people are disappointed that nothing happened.
It's more likely that someone would be associated with DMJR.
If you look at NAVB, which is a Platinum investment, you'll see that they had someone there by the name of DDBuyer.
IMO, he worked for Platinum.
Investment shows is another story, but there is zero chance we see news stories on the 220.
I see the very short term value in it, but there is nothing revolutionary about the 220 that would make it something they would want to put on tv.
What would be the story? That it does the same thing as the other products that have been approved for a decade, but it is non-nuke and has faster clear down time?
I'm not trying to be combative here because I agree with you on a lot of things, but I just don't think the 220, or ETD in general, is sexy enough for mainstream news coverage....absent a major terrorist attack.