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What's the reason for halting?
Couldn't find
Thank Samsa, didnt mean to have point by point answer, bit it was very kind of you.
Now I would vote for
1 patente approval
2 partnership agreement
3 nda filing with assistance of the new partner
Samsa, thanks for your precious info.
Based on your reasoning I have some points to raise:
1- if they have to hold filing until effective new regulation date, we go into 1stQ 2017 (december); they have to make an immediate PR if that's the case, because now would be certain it would happen next fiscal year
2- according to your hypothesis recent, market action (volume spike being absorbed) is consistent with my possible explanation of company's ATM (the need to raise cash)
3- I agree that partnership Agreement could still happen anytime; I do not exlude that the potential partner could have the resources to have this regulation devolopment assessed and "advised" IPCI accordingly (=hold filing until new reg effective)
4- we need the company to release some news; even partnership for ANDAs woul benefit.
PFFC
Unfortunally was a very bad day. After the First hour of trading we got Just shorts...at least that's what I understood from price action.
Dont like it at all.
Great explanation Angelo.
My bad feeling about the cap in the price finds perfect comfort in your words.
We Need the biiiig news to break the shorters necks
It's a possibility, I don't know. When there is buying pressure but the price doesn't succeed in making big moves usually you have:
1 - company issuing
2 - a major shorter
3 - the MM who is in need to keep the price down (for multiple reasons)
If the company is selling some could be for:
- raising cash = which is a bad sign (I'm not saying tragic)
- allowing the potential partner to get a portion of the company at mkt prices
Other comments welcome.
Still a little puzzled about the quantity of shares sold.
in february, when keppra was approved, in two days with just more than half million shares of volume we went from 2.25 to 3.15.
During these days we have an increasing pressure on the upside, but each spike is rapidly absorbed.
Just some price action observations.
PFFC
graph says "naked shorted interest"; we have a daily activity with % based on daily volume; we need to wait for the stock of shorts as of 30th of sept. That should give an idea.
those important percentage of daily naked shorts to me looks like MM action; but I'm open to hear other comments.
Share shorts (total stock) are over 1mln as of 15 sept, and they are around that level since several months (yrs?)
Help needed for competitor's product analysis:
I was reading about Collegium (they were just included into the United Health list of drugs, causing an incredible price appreciation)and their recent submission of NDS to Helath Canada for their
" Xtampza® ER, an
Analgesic with Abuse-Deterrent Properties for the Treatment of Chronic Pain"
from their news release:
"ETERx® technology platform, providing adequate pain control while maintaining its extended-release profile even if subjected to common methods of manipulation, including chewing and crushing the product prior to administration. In addition, Xtampza ER supports the administration of the product by sprinkling the capsule contents on soft foods or into a cup, and then directly into the mouth, or through a gastrostomy or nasogastric feeding tube."
but
"Abuse of Xtampza ER by injection and by the nasal route of administration, as well as by the oral route is still possible."
"Xtampza ER is not indicated as an as-needed (prn) analgesic."
This was surprising...what about Rexista ?
"Accidental Ingestion
Accidental ingestion of even one dose of Xtampza ER, especially by children, can result in a fatal overdose of oxycodone."
Am I correct in saying that Rexista looks much superior ? Please elaborate.
Could be, at least in part, but given the low average volume of recent months, question is: who could be helping shorters to cover ?
Remember that they need to buy to cover themself; so who is selling that important quantites of shares ?
So usually you want the shorter to cover at highest possible prices, unless there are other motives concurring.
Honestly I don't know, but I think we will know soon,
but consider that shorts covering is positive news (so not a party pooper")
I think that you can take out at least another million of shares held long by us here on IH board.
TonyPro and his friends probably another 500K at least.
Floating is reducing importantly.
If we have 1 fund accumlating we should see his position (SEC filing) soon; otherwise more than one is accumulating (maybe a couple).
Still surprised to see the price not spiking, given the volume; maybe new shares being issued to the potential partner ?
Let the floating become thin and thinner...
Brean just assumed a BUY rating on SCYX..which is reacting with a +16% after doubling over the last 40 days...kinda frustrating to see how IPCI is below the radar.
We need news asap to get the party started
Samsa, we are on the same page.
Was expecting the patent by last friday (just a feeling..wrong sadly).
Frustrating to see how there is no sort of speculation before catalysts hitting; I have many other biotech in watchlist which are moving impressively even if they are far from having products sold into the market...but thay move just on Analyst upgrades or phase II progresses.
But our time should be coming; dreaming of a multi-layer total Agreement Rexista+Prodras and Regabating shortly after.
U got me. I must confess...I'm paid to have IPCI positive ytd, vs -50? of some much more scientifically sound competitor.
And I'm damn good at my job, so u better buy IPCI
Samsa,
I heard once about a Greece meeting...but could also be anywhere else (besides Vegas).
For sure I would be very happy know much of you in person !
WZ,
I think that your position is legitimate (even if far from mine) but I have some points to raise to your attention:
I believe that whoever is discussing for a partnership with IPCI has probably the resource, knowledge and skills to assess any possible issues, blue dye included.
If an Agreement is made, looking at the kind of Agreement signed and from how it is structured you will have a good approximation of how it is going to end.
" But I look for long term fundamentals, and those are weak here. No public HAL studies for Rexista says all I need to know. With Rexista unlikely to get approval with current formulation, there is nothing for PODRAS to enhance, even if future IPCI engineers can get it to work."
worst scenario I see is they remove the dye. I don't think it's going to happen; but it will be a delay at max. So on the contrary to what you say: long term your likely to emerge as the best in class
"Generics are a joke- still waiting to hear about Focalin from their partner that no longer exists. Keppra languishes. Most pending ANDA's are late to well-established markets."
They are marginal, not a joke; a joke is FDA approval process. ANDAs can turn this tiny company very profitable (in relation to its size)
Catalysts for this company tend to be rumors on twitter. Not my kind of investment.
You know it's not true. We had 1 rumor in 3 yrs...and catalyst are in the pipeline and in the partnership discussions. This last of yours is just nonsense and I understood you are much much better than this.
WZ,
just try to abandon - for a moment - your phisician perspective; and just look at the share price perspective.
Even assuming that there could be some issues coming out from the FDA with regards to the blue dye, from now to that moment you still have plenty of catalyst which could push IPCI share price very high.
So, unless the potential IPCI partner has your same assessment, I think you better invest some money in IPCI from now until Christmas.
Then you will probably hope to be wrong on dye and stay or jump down and enjoy the gain.
Just turn from phisics to finance...for a moment, and make risk/reward assessment.
Samsa, Tek, thank you for your explanation.
WZ: buy some ipci, come on board, you will sell before the final rexista approval (so that you dont bear the risk of blue due being the motive of non approval).
In 6 months from now You will make a very good profit which you Can reinvest in your current investment averaging down at the night moment. Seriously. Think about it
Samsa,
am I wrong if I say that the supposedly new use of blue dye it's psycological instead of chimical ?
I'm not expert like you guys but just trying to understand.
My point: Blue Dye it's a deterrent in the sense that if I am an abuser I'm not willing to risk to have my lips colored blue when I go out , so I'm not trying to manipulate it.
How can you prove it?
What is important is that the dye is safe and adherent to FDA rules;
The other way around: if you use colour in a candy it is just for psycological reason (you want the children to be attracted); what FDA requires is safety, because they know that the colour should push the user to eat more and more. From that point of view coloured candies shouldn't be allowed.
I don't wnat to sound sarcastic (english is not my Language), just really wnat to understand where am I in the reasoning.
Thanks
I think you could be right.
It has been loosing 20% in two days.
That's way there is part of me hoping for the buyout to be true;
very curious to see the next short interest data,
Ahasja,
great catch !!
Don't say "Blue" ..please LOL
Still here?
Was Amazing when I saw your post on the other board you are usd to write which was referencing at yorself posts put on ipci board as a source...just Amazing.
Great job, but please....we got your point. Please
My ideas (most of the points shared with some of you):
- Endo is not in the (financial) condition of making a buyout; more likely to see a partnership hopefully consisting of a licensing for ALL the waiting ANDAs;
- ADF is becoming very hot; recent set-backs for two of IPCI competitors would push for a more exploitable negotiating position;
- Purdue is the company destined to suffer the most from ADF hitting the market; therfore I see them very active in finding the right partnership/acquisition; besides they have cash and being not listed makes their hands more free (!); it is one of my favourite (in terms of feasability and fitting) for IPCI;
- I think that (as already said) the two elements that came out from the rumor are not pure fantasy: 11.5$ (or similar) is likely to be an upfront in the form of cash or shareholdings (new shares issue?)- 5yrs of Odidis at the driver seat sounds a lot like Isa's requiriment;
- recent price action is institutional buying; the spike when the status of the patent was updated on website was someone's very close to the matter; probably a new spike coming when patent is considered alive and kicking; therefore some institution is well aware of each of the single steps in the process;
Conclusion:
we are probably at the eve of a super-intensive quarter.
PFFC
My feeling (nothing more than that) is that someone got some pieces of a deal in the make and tryed to desume its own conclusion.
11.5$ and 5yrs of Odidi's at the helm are part of the deal.
I don't know if it will be a buyout, Agreement, partnership (a new major shareholder who gets say 25% of the company).
those 5yrs makes me really think that it is a negotiating point of real discussion and 11.5$ makes me think it is something Odidi's would never accept unless something else is included.
Just my feeling
IPCI starting to get some visibiility over the last 10 days; that's extremely positive since the next catalyst could have a leveraged effect if the company is already followed by some of the news-media.
"The new rules follow changes adopted on June 10, 2010, that impose a uniform market-wide pause in trading in individual stocks whose price moves 10% or more in a five-minute period. The trading pause, which was proposed by U.S. exchanges and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), initially was limited to stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, but has been extended to stocks in the Russell 1000 Index and to certain exchange-traded products."
mmm....Lots of shares on the sell:
ATM ?
MM ?
I vote for the second, I wouldn't like the first option
Volume is impressive Doog,
accumulation+short covering going on.
I'm realling hoping for the accumulation to dry up the floating...then...
...unleash the hell !
I think the MM is trying hard to keep the price down; he has been in total control of the share over last 6 months and as Angelo suggested I believe they were naked shorting over the last weeks.
So they are trying all they can to push the price down and cover.
If today we won't have conisderably pressure on the buy side I think we could close in 1.8 range.
What is important is that the 1mln share we saw ystd stays now out of the float....
The lesser the floating share and the higher we jump when big news finally will hit the wire.
Angelo, Samsa,
I agree: today's action was institutional buying.
Now we need:
1 the said institution to keep on buying
2 MM to get killed in the naked short covering (MM is the main reason for IPCI price being so low)
3 big news release (other than a buyout)
4 other catalyst to follow by Christmas
5 Vegas
- OR official hostile take over then refused by the Odidis(so to base the price
at around say ...6 or 7) and go for point 3 onwards.
PFFC
Patience
Faith
Fingers Crossed
AH volume is ridicolous if compared to he volume made in 20min.
Something is up...any catalyst in the coming days and we fly
Makes me think to TonyPro sprot when he said that the odidis would have been pushed out....
What I Can say is that whatever it is it is not coming from a listed company...otherwise the offer would have to be made public
WZ,
mr "I have no interest in a discussion" and "Only smoke"
while you keep sticking with your rock solid knowledge of PODRAS, we are waiting for the following:
Rexista NDA filing around the corner,
partnership Agreement
further ANDA's approval
Regabatin partnership
...and regarding the smoke, I would have something to recommend you...but I guess I would be banned.
Good Bye
WZ,
you came here out of the blue saying PODRAS is fantasy and Acura is years ahead and well funded.
YOU had the wrong approach !
YOU! compared IPCI with Acura...and by the way: Acura is re-formulating their LIMITX = I don't really see how it should be so much ahed of IPCI.
So forget your comparison (nothing against Acura but about your inaccuracy)and remember that if you write something about a company everybody here can verify !
You have your idea about PODRAS and nobody wants you to change it.
On this board there are persons who have been discussing, documenting, studying, confronting, about each single product (now the focus is obviously on imminent NDA filing). So we are adult and aware of all the risks.
You can be part of the discussion or just someone who is saying "everybody here is reading fables, I'm the one who knows the right company".
Your choice (think I know the outcome)
Seriously ??
"Acura is working on very similar concept. They're multiple years ahead of IPCI, they have funding, and they have an actual research staff-- none of which IPCI currently has. "
from august SEC 10Q:
"We estimate that our current unrestricted cash, cash equivalent and marketable securities will be sufficient to fund the development of our products utilizing our Limitx and Impede Technologies, the commercialization of our Nexafed products and our related operating expenses through November 2016 while maintaining compliance with the $2.5 million compensating balance requirement under our term loan with Oxford Finance LLC. At August 5, 2016, we had unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (after deduction of the $2.5 million compensating balance requirement under our term loan with Oxford) of $3.4 million. To fund further operations and product development activities, we must raise additional financing or enter into license or collaboration agreements with
third parties relating to our technologies."
I think that we have to wait until NDA filing and possibly partnership Agreement...then we'll get a clearer picture.
We are trying to reverse-engineering due to lack of detailed info which probably is part of the company strategy to get the proper deal.
PFFC
Patience
Faith
Fingers Crossed
Thanks Numbers, I made some (quick) DD on those names.
Here are my findings:
- Only public company is Acura
- couldn't find anything on Elysium O2P
- ALTAIR and ACURA are in the pre-clinical/clinical phase
- LIMITX status of development not disclosed
ALITAIR – PRIVATE COMPANY
Alitair Overdose Reduction
ODR™ is a drug delivery technology that functions passively as part of a drug’s dosage form, limiting the amount of drug released in the digestive system based on the total amount of drug ingested. With ODR™, safety is built in to the dosage form using approved excipients and well-established manufacturing technology.
Abuse Deterrence Properties Inherent to ODR™
ODR™ has the potential to protect patients from prescription drug overdose, and ODR™ also includes abuse deterrence properties. Our ODR™ technology cannot be circumvented by means commonly employed today, such as crushing the capsules or tablets and smoking or snorting the actives.
Initial tests indicate that ODR™ will work across a broad range of prescription drugs including opioids, anti-depressants and tranquilizers. Clinical testing in humans is the next step for ODR™.
Significant Market Opportunity for ODR™
Initial tests indicate that ODR™ will work across a broad range of prescription drugs including opioids, anti-depressants and tranquilizers. Clinical testing in humans is the next step for ODR™. We estimate the market at 200 million prescriptions. At a price of approximately $100 per prescription for products utilizing ODR™, ODR™ represents a $20 billion market opportunity.
ACURA – acur us
LIMITX™ Technology
intended to address an oral Excessive Tablet Abuse (ETA) or accidental consumption of multiple tablets and provide a margin of safety during accidental over-ingestion of tablets. LIMITX™ is also expected to exhibit barriers to abuse by snorting and injection.
LTX-04 is currently being reformulated to provide faster release of active ingredient when 1 and 2 tablets are ingested. The initial formulation of LTX-04 was supported by a grant from the National Institute On Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R44DA037921.
Kashiv Pharma iADOPT
Abuse Deterrent Overdose Protection Technology
Kashiv’s next generation of advanced Abuse Deterrent Formulation (ADF) drug delivery systems are based on a combination of physical/chemical barriers to prevent or reduce:
• mechanical manipulation of dosage form to crush, cut, grate, or grind
• drug extraction using a variety of aqueous and alcohol based solvents
• drug exposure from intentional and accidental overdose.
These technologies are designed to make dosage forms difficult to manipulate or abuse. The resulting product would offer reduced euphoria compared to competitive ADF-based formulations and become the preferred choice of prescribing physicians
Guys, did you see TBRA Yesterday ?
Likely take over sent the price from 5$ to 38.9$ (high of the day: 41.39).
Amazing how Allergan (who is probably closing the acquisition) gave a completely different valuation compared to what the market was giving.
I'm not alluding to a bid for IPCI, just showing how it works once a big pharma sees value into a small biotech.
PFFC everybody (just asked for trademark myself... )
Patience.
Faith.
Fingers Crossed.