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Hi drr,
Could you post the link. This will probably take it beyond the 200 day average today.
If that is between .155 and .16, we should be able to do that in the next one or two days if it continues today's rise.
A nice 5% gain today. Closed at .1487.
Where's everyone. Vans how far away are we from the Golden Cross.
Cheers !
Most of the US based companies, except for BAE Systems, have come on board faster. I guess others will follow.
Good to have a company like GE on our side.
Oh. I was confused because of the following release by APDN.
SBIR Grant -- On April 23, 2013, APDN announced that it had been awarded a Phase I research grant by the United States Missile Defense Agency (MDA) for approximately $150,000, for advanced development of APDN's anti-counterfeiting platform for military electronics. The award, granted by the MDA Small Business Innovative Research program (SBIR), aims to develop advanced and innovative methods of placing markings or coatings onto original parts at the time of manufacture, to enable customers at later stages in the supply chain to confirm that the component is authentic.
But then they use the word approximately.
Was it not $150,000 for Phase 1.
Rather surprising because the Dr had claimed in one of his calls that they were probably ahead of the schedule.
Looks unlikely that we might hear anything in Mar either, if this is the case unless they have finished the work in Jan.
But why would anyone buy at this rate? Sorry I am a layman when it comes to this.
Almost 75000 shares traded above .153. Does not make sense to me.
Who gains by this.
Always pops in the morning only to disappoint us later in the day.
Yep Vans, am trying to do that.
It is awful to watch this on a daily basis.
.005 cents up and down and I keep watching it day in and day out thinking that today will be the day.
God. This .02/.01 cent movement up and down has been the most boring to watch on a daily basis.
When the hell will this break loose.
Just fed up seeing the same thing over and over again.
This is history and we need to move on and get some real results. These PRs have got us nowhere.
How are these old news stickies suddenly popping up on the IPad IHub app.?
They were not there earlier.
Yip & Vans,
Combine this article with the recent collaboration between APDN and LMI and we can hope to see some positive developments.
I hope LMI succeeds in getting the mandate expansion expedited and a favorable announcement on the MDA Phase II award.
A great post early Monday morning. Thank you.
Gives me great hope, that we will get our due.
Probably A1Mill has the best idea amongst us all but even he might admit that it is not very clear to us.
Yes we expected revenues to go up due to the apparent increase in customers/contracts but that was not to be. Regarding the cotton, wool, and Brinks contracts, we might see the impact in the 2nd qtr ending Mar 2014.
One of the clarifications that we should seek from APDN.
Glad you do because you are one of the pillars out here and if you give up on this we will all feel jittery.
Cheers!!
Here is a link to the APDN Facebook page where Marek has posted something to brighten up your weekend.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/APDNstock/permalink/623281547745203/
Hope this turns out to be true.
GLTA
Cheers Mike, Happy Valentine Day and I hope you get that warm hug from your wife. We do not have a Hindu equivalent of Valentines day but who cares. We celebrate everything.
Have a great week-end and no I am not ignoring the way we are getting r........ed out here but have reached a stage where I feel we have no option but just hope that this shows some startling recovery.
This time around, I will cash out at least half my shares. Won't make that mistake again.
Good luck and God Bless
Yeah Mike. Thanks.
Let's back Vans and hope that his Golden Cross theory works for us.
I am hoping that there might be some announcement during the Military Electronics Conference from 18-20th Feb. This will be followed by the MDA announcement in Mar.
So the Golden Cross could happen in the first week of Mar.
Good luck.
That's the problem A1. They have only reasons why they could not do something. Most of the reasons are repeated.
For lack of sales, it is always delays in signing of contracts.
Unfortunate.
Pasta - I am going to be a bit positive now because nothing worse can happen.
The partnership with LMI indicates that the DLA mandate expansion will happen. Very soon, we will also have the Phase II award from the MDA and APDN share price will be well into the high 20s.
Cheers !!
Then, LMI was probably a consultant only to the DLA.
Now they have announced their intention to partner with APDN and promote the technology to prevent counterfeit goods from entering not just the Defence sector but elsewhere too.
My spell check always ends up correcting this to thus. Don't know why.
To be honest, thus should be acquired by some bigger company who can effectively market/promote the technology.
Now that's a good PR to begin with.
Thanks Kbar.
This qtly report has taken the wind out of this stock. All of a sudden we are doubting the viability of this company.
Sad to note that even the DLA mandate expansion is being doubted.
Hope the situation changes with some PRs
That is true SP. Even though this one is a current report, Zacks have been estimating a price of 25 cents for APDN for the last more than a year.
Even if you pull up one of their early 2013 reports, you will see an estimate of 25 cents.
Nevertheless, I hope this report breathes some life into the stock. If not, it is going to be one long wait till the next qtr results.
That has been the experience of most on this board.
Regarding the letter, we can keep it short and crisp by raking up only those issues which bother all of us. I do realize that we have differing opinions on some. We can leave those out.
For eg. An understanding of their business model. How do they generate their revenue from a typical customer? I am sure we all lack that clarity and hence the gross difference in the estimates that this board made and the actual figure.
Another point would be some transparency on their progress in other verticals. What kind of revenue are they generating from some of their partnerships. What did they achieve by acquiring RedWeb or by partnering with Smoke Cloak or Nisha or Markem Image. They claim to have a better ability to forecast revenue by customer. If so why can't they give us a better picture about their performance customer wise.
One of the reasons given for lower revenues in this qtr compared to the previous two qtrs was delays in signing of contracts. If certain contracts were already in place for the previous two qtrs, I don't get this.
I am sure we can find a lot more.
Thanks drr,
While I am also long and not going anywhere ( have held this for too long to let this go ), I am certainly disappointed. Tired of waiting for the next quarter to be our dream quarter, only to go through one more round of frustration.
I sent out a mail to Karol and Mitchell today, expressing my concerns. Know very well that they will not reply or bother but at least I felt good doing that.
I was of the opinion that the board can send them a consolidated feedback on what it feels. This could be done after short listing at least the points on which we all agree that they need a response/clarification.
Thanks Yip. Accepted that the confusion is then between 28 contracts and the 58 so called customers.
But then don't you think that 28 is a low number and that we were all expecting that number to be a lot more, in fact closer to a hundred.
Moreover, is that the only source of revenue for us. What about revenues from other verticals, countries, partnerships, etc. there is no clarification on that.
Hi JLH2,
I am not aware of that.
But then that's history Yip.
Obviously last year we had just started signing on customers as the DLA had just announced the mandate.
We moved on from that point to sign on 58 customers. To now say or compare current qtr numbers with last year when we had just started, is not correct. The number has to be higher. In fact I don't understand how the total number goes down from 58 to 28. Once we sign on 58 customers, the renewal should be almost guaranteed or are we saying that is not the case. Which then is also a cause for worry.
Hi Mike,
Some observations from my side.
The Dr. mentioned that they had renewed 3 and initiated 4 new contracts this qtr as compared to 3 last quarter.
Then he goes on to add that they have 28 customers who have renewed agreements, including the 7 OCMs and 2 Distributors.
My question is what is the difference between the 3 + 4 contracts and the 28 customers. Not clear to me. Just confusing.
Again, as you rightly pointed out, we were counting 58 customers as having signed on. How did this come down to 28.
The Dr never bothers to speak about partnerships in other verticals or revenue potential from those partnerships. Are we at all getting any revenue from our tie up with Nisha or Markem Image or Disc for eg.
I am not so convinced about the deferred revenue part. That was there last qtr too but we did not speak about it then. To me that looks like us trying to console ourselves. The fact remains that the revenue was significantly lower than what we all expected. Is the increase in manpower and capital expenses justified for these kind of revenue increases. They should at least give us an impression of the expected revenue ramp up for the year.
APDN's conference calls have never been very informative or enlightening. Might as well not have them.
At least a positive perspective to begin the day with after a disappointing day yesterday.
Thanks CK.
AG - there are a couple of hard and bitter truths in your post.
Though I would not reduce this down to just shipping ink, I am getting concerned with the high expenses and the employee count given the lack of sales volume.
Also, the senior management could do better than rewarding themselves with fat salaries and stock options for such ordinary performance. I agree that his conference calls have never been very inspiring. This is turning out to be a long long wait and I hate the over dependence on the DLA mandate. All the so called partnerships from the private sector seem to be getting us no great revenues or else we would not have seen such poor figures. Further they never talk about those partnerships. What has happened with those umpteen tie ups that we heard about, Nisha, Markem, Smoke Cloak, RedWeb, etc.
Can someone send a detailed note to Karol on these lines.
Let's all cool off. No point in getting at each other.
There is no denying that the qtly results were disappointing to say the least. We can't keep crawling like this and hope that the next qtr will spring some pleasant surprises.
Yet the technology does seem to be getting more and more vindicated. We just don't seem to have a great revenue model in place to get quantum jumps in revenue. The DLA contracts have not done much so far. We will have to see how the Textile business works out for us. This will be clear by the next qtr.
Also feel that expenses including salaries are way too high for these kind of productivity levels. The increase was being justified on the basis of getting ready to address growth but that just isn't seen as yet.
Glad that the market did not maul us down today. Hope that we see some DLA or MDA related PRs in the coming weeks.
Good luck and God Bless us all.
On a serious note, you should send an e-mail to Karol Gray on these very lines.
We need an answer for the high employee count and the high salaries being, when the productivity does not justify the same. They never have time for such questions in the CC.
We can't keep waiting for the next qtr every time.