beef, to the extent that you find solace in Wave involvement in specification development, please find the following:

http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/drafts/800-155/draft-SP800-155_Dec2011.pdf

scroll to acknowledgments, and in black and white, within the NIST 800-155 draft the acknowledgment is made, definitely not a heard it at a conference thingy.

(credit New Wave posts #218834 and #218835)

Greg Kazmierczak
http://blog.wave.com/author/kazmierczak/

Robert Thibadeau
http://blog.wave.com/author/thibadeau/

alea, an even shorter summary,

based on available information, its Wave's business to lose, to the extent that there is an incumbant, Wave is it.

NW, at the level of the first approximation yes,
but in my limited experience implementing rules in an unrelated field, the unprinted dialogue often includes indications of shoulds going to shalls and an indications of which shoulds are the first to fall. Should is always stronger than may and usually by a wide margin signals a coming shall (as opposed to may).

alea's able prose has effectively summarized a framework that I believe should form the basis of a target for falsification.

rwk, no I din't
and thanks, although generally somewherre in a doc those words are defined, and the definition generally doesn't very, and if one follows a particular rule set over a few years they evolve to shalls as new mays and shoulds are found. The bit were shoulds might sometimes be shalls is novel to me without it being express in the rule point itself.

It would seem that the various fine efforts and time lines posted here, the massive buildup in staff, the presence of staff in the rules editing process, the alignment of the products with providing capability to comply with the rules and the clear obvious need would suggest that something has got to drop out of this by July.

The stated WEM sale during the CC is a really big deal to me. It dramatically underscores the pre-launch readiness/state of development of that product. I expect that Wave's completely imbedded fluency in the topic at hand makes for easier development of WEM and similar such products gong forward than one swinging in from the land of the post-OS firewall/virus hound.

I do hope they cross this rivulet of the Rubicon before a hostile poaching by BigDefCon e.g.

rwk, I am very bullish on the shalls you mentioned as I have commented on before, and was commenting mostly on dabears post (even though it was a (reply-link-fail)

this stretch:

"The BIOS image and configuration baseline should be continuously monitored. If an unapproved deviation from this baseline is detected, the event should be investigated, documented, and remediated as part of incident response activities. The incident response plan should document the process and set of authorized tools that can be used to capture the evidence to help determine the root cause. The secure local update mechanism should be used to recover from a BIOS image compromise."

admittedly this is more of a operational response section, the more important point being the well-mention requirement for RoTU, with the only mentioned example being a TPM, and Wave's clear focus on this step-by-step with NIST and the complete harmony their products have in addressing exactly that.

I'm really just trying find weakness in the speculation, not that I am doing a particularly good job at convincing even myself.

Nist xxx-147,

a concern of mine is section 3.2 being mired in should rather than shall.

Folks that implement gov regs literally scan these things for the word "shall".

Its not a deal breaker by any means. It provides for considerable wiggle room in rate of adoption however. Believe me, that is what the words are there for (in this case should). Shalls are immediate targets, shoulds are longer term targets. Shoulds evolve, they become shalls, but I can't hang my hat on 10m seats going on 2012 based on shoulds.

alea, particularly for those whose revenue stream is perceived as defense in that which is perceived as war. Cyber war is broadly perceived, failure to defend will increasingly become a unacceptable political reality.

Short Interest, As well pointed out to me here,

regardless of hedging, against the box, or whatever, the short interest does in all likelihood represent pent up demand. I spose the same can be said for long interest as well, presumably folks don't buy shares to line their coffins with them.

In any event, that is a good solid hunk of shares, 1.46m shares in a month the net effect of which can only be pretty significant downward pressure.

Volume for the period is recorded as 7.22m shares, such that 20% of the supply was short (or more if one dabbles in that whole double counting notion).

Close on Halloween was 2.61 and if one arbitrarily assigns the 20% as artificial supply = 1:1 share price erosion (which is complete ballyhoo, but bear with me) then one gets a SP of 2.09 11/30 close (and the actual was 2.25) so, you see, WAVX was up 16 cents for the month on a short adjusted basis.

Now that ... is SPIN.

I doubt it, last I read an iPhone was 26% Samsung, its not like they don't do business or anything.

the whole boo-hoo lawsuit didn't stand a chance in the end IMO,

I mean it was basically, "ours is thin, doesn't weigh a ton, and about the size of a sheet of paper and now yours is too ... you stole our look and feel" is a reach.

That thinness and touch screen dimensions is stealing IP seems a real reach.

I, Dig Space, seek to patent the rectangle.

NW, on WEM,

you seem to be much nearer the pulse on these things, could you elaborate on the GovAg notion ... why think so?

alea, a few things

It seems Feb is often a proposal deadline month for Gov, late-Mar/April awards months, and money flows May/June. Sometimes.

Various folks have built TPM/TC applications, but Wave is nothing but TPM/TC. They breath TC, from the janitor to the CEO. SYMC may well have a few thousand employees who have never heard of one or at least not really understand what it is (or at least not a year ago). Same for RSA. Or not.

Often IMO significant things like this are done by the small guy. They have the advantage of being highly focused and not encumbered by things like running a business (seriously).

So it really does look like a+b=c, and c looks like Wave, and while it would be rather remarkable, it don't feel it would be necessarily unusual or unexpected.

There are things SEAL teams are better at than a Regiment.

NW, awesome,

so the drone has a USB port in the nose, they plug it in and in rams a 1000# Stux into the nuke program.

clever clever

(I definitely want NewWave on my side)

alea, as I had mentioned before, it seems like LMT is ripe for getting a little "known" into their devices.

Remote management of devices (drones) is one thing, but one would think the manager best be known.

RSA dongle-debacle, drones on their own. LMT needs to step up their game. Yesterday.

LMT as my rumor-phantasm for BigDefCon going TC.

The good Corporal has got to know this is not going well.

Dory, yes, Samsung is no PapaGinos

an d potentially not only their devices per se as potential, e.g. last I heard their components were 26% of an iPhone, AAPL-Samsung lawsuits notwithstanding.

Seeing the pricing pressure on chips, I wouldn't expect much revs from chip-level bundling as I don't recall the ground shaking with Wave's various agreements with BRCM, STMC or whomever at that level.

In that sense I see the value more strategically. But who knows. In the end, it should sum out to a significant hunk of change, one can easily see it bump Dell from pole position for largest customers. Not tommorrow. But when?

JKIRK, Samsung

Certainly I expect revs from the Samsung agreement (a lot). I expect Wave will likely book some services revs (although perhaps not) and almost undoubtably bundling revs.

The bundling deal with Dell was much easier to consumate and put a number on. In that case Wave was bundlnig their product designed to work on Wintel with a Wintel OEM. Wintel had been around a while. Folks know what the thing is, its market, its volume, its purpose. Wave had a COTS for TPMs, Dell said lets do it.

TPMs(esque) in tablets and phones running on Android or whatever purposed for something, for some market that is only now marginally defined for a purpose that it in flux is a bit nebulous.

The agreement to me means this: Wave is Samsung's goto company for their efforts to TC their devices. Goto for development, goto for bundling. Of course, there needs to be something shipping to bundle with.

We've seen the Galaxy Tab SED bluetooth video. Development. In September Micron essentially rolled out their SSD emphasizing seamless functionality with Wave. Micron paid Wave service money to insure that. Obviously they felt it was important.

I believe that the Samsung-Wave announcement means that the Juggernaut of tomorrows non-APPL devices has selected Wave as the goto for TC on those devices.

Again, as with DoD-NIST 800-147, BigDefCon, it is all comming down to the rate of deployment. Rate is totally murky. It looks like through my Wavoid glasses that the next 7 months should show a lot. But for those less steeped in Lee tea, some glimmer of rate will be required to jump in.

But without a doubt, the Samsung thing means revs, lots of revs IMO. Otherwise its egg on my face, scrabld not poached.

1260, I'm likely being dense,

But what is the US patent number for this patent so I can look up the patent?

A seven digit number in my experience.

I'm used to US patents saying "US Patent" on the top and US patent applications saying "US patent application" on top.

Here:

http://www.wavxdd.com/Patents.htm

patents at the top, applications at the bottom.

Patent talk,

isn't it safe to say that applications that are 10 years old are ideas that the patent office rejected?

The Ionosphere was Wave's second or third step into the massive consumer market.

If the consumer market has an "it" factor, one hopes a lot Wave of resources are not wandering this way.

I use social media, and I don't scrambl, I just lie.

Seriously, a dummy email account to set it up based on lies, things like birth dates, places born, all lies. The pictures, I just scan from Men's Fitness (yes, Dig Space is a male).

Crap, I use a designated low limit credit card for anything online. (Bastards keep raising the limit ...) So, yea, they could steal it and go for a roadtrip, but not very far.

Works for me. For now.

Well kinda, I don't need old friends finding pictures of me passed out covered in whip cream to scan in and tag me with, but that's gonna happen if I live under the ice in Antartica with a suitcase of gold and only Doma to talk to (iteratively bemoaning fiat currencies).

Course this could all be a lie too.

alea, yes, ISIS claims to have the big the on board (VISA, MC, AE), I'm not sure if the writer was running amok, of if the nature of the MNO-CCs is firmed up.

alea, yes ISIS, which is planned to rollout in Austin early 2012 ..

http://www.fastcompany.com/1762304/isis-nfc-payments-to-come-to-austin-as-battle-royale-for-wireless-credit-shapes-up

with the lin kk finishing with:

alea, MNO pushing back

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/verizon-blocks-google-wallet-galaxy-100045338.html

S&P downgrades
Earth
recommends putting money elsewhere ...

(sorry couldn't help it)

RC, the demand for WAVX shares is not there, early investors are well-invested, there is plenty of pretty patient supply, some call it overhang, others call it hangover.

So here's a carrot, I've got Q4'12 as going into the black $20m revs on $19m expenses.

But I still got a doughnut hole.

BigOil was stated to include Safend products, and it does, in the tens of thousands of seats, and it is. That Wave has rolled out ERAS+SEDs to GM and BASF is great, that they have done same with integrated EmbassyProtector as well as IMO meaningfully to the breadth of their product in a manner that helps them keep BigLegacyVendor (BLV) at bay.

Wave was clearly (and as stated) working with Safend on this (BigOil) for some time, and it seems likely that the hole in Wave's portfolio was giving BLV a wedge.

Through the acquisition Wave has closed that hole.

With WEM they further their tendrils into the device itself. As stated by Lee, the new age UEFI bios introduces vulnerability as a consequence of its flexibility (not that BIOS doesn't have vulnerabilities already). Given that $500k of pre-rollout WEM have already sold, and given that a RoTU is required Jan 1 (NIST SP 800-147) it would seem that gov and gov peripheral companies (BDC) should arrive in some form in the next 6 months.

LMT is looking at a threatened JSF program (budgetary), drones that are being remotely managed by the targets of their activity, drone server stations that are durably infected, and an epic public RSA-dongle-debacle. It would seem they need to pick up their game.

Regarding BIO, Pharma, and Bank ... it seems there is stated penetration with BigBank, but not of the 8-k variety, too incremental. While this can be attributed to UnsafeOcean ballyhoo, the Q3 uptick in non-8-k sales indicates somebody is buying something.

In the end one has four thingy's out there or supposedly so:

1. BigGov: NIST SP 800-147 is online and transiting from should to shall regarding e.g. a RoTU for device integrity. Wave has WEM. They've sold it. Hand. Glove. Wear it.

2. Growing SMB sales: for the first time in a year. The talk of all these smaller customers is showing up in the numbers. That's not UnsafeOcean babblegook, that's GAAP numbers.

3. BigDefCon: is getting hammered by breeches, some public, some not. These are not e-commerce websites that don't want to inconvenience customers. Unknown devices have no place on their networks. None. Flip the switch.

4. Others: Wave stated that Q3 added $25-30m in new potential clients to the pipeline. I know, *@#$! pipelines. This pipeline statement wasn't measured in "customers" it was measured in dollars. On the basis of past performance (Samsung/Mobile, CloudERAS, BigOil, BASF, WEM), I believe this statement to be true.

In Lee, I don't see deception. I see loqorrhea, inexperience, and quite frankly, over-interpretation by many. The rate is the unknown (and whether others insert as rate gives opportunity). (on the flip side, in the absence of Lee-carrots, SHs would be in complete darkness, and even though time-points are 'missed', the effort to communicate sales progress going forward is likely the only thing that keeps many around)

If one pretends they have never listened to a CC, then Wave is delivering. Yes, much more must happen. All of the necessary pieces have been put in place (and for recent history in the absence of dilution save the Safend acquisition).

By mid-June I expect visibility connected to countable money on all four points above: BigGov, BigDefCon, SMBs (non-8k revs), and 'Others'. As state elsewhere, Wave it would seem has the sales force now to be able to increase the inking rate.

Root, indeed, with the goal being of course to keep
anti-virus their "main area" and keep them out of the known device layer.

On BigDefCon, I should add, I do not expect a play-by-play SH-coddling run-up to BigDefCon as 1) I expect accelerated kinetics, and 2) DefCon will gag Lee and mean it. Near silence until an 8-k. Q1-Q2. BigDefCon to close the doughnut hole?

My bets are on BigDefCon next.

Wave has sold to BigAuto, BigChem, BigAccounting, and BigOil.

I want to see BigDefCon.

LMT? GD? Crap, LMT's drones are getting remotely managed in a less than benevolent manner, not to mention the dongle debacle.

The last CC, the latest hint, was BigDefCon. The last couple of hints while slow in maturing, have occurred.

jas, oops, you are correct, sed maintenance was mentioned

it looks to be pretty impossible to sift pricing power from this info.

the 8-k mentions ERAS and EP (the Safend product also marketed as Credant Protector). No mention of SEDs/TDM. Its the first time that I am aware of of a large EmbassyProtector deployment, something that was speculated on here some time ago.

In that sense, this is a pilot launch it would seem, at least for Wave, the issues of nailing a large EmbassyProtector deployment may have had some novelty to it.

rwk, were one to suppose that the Series K warrants (1.1m shares) were the "culprit" then the argument would be that one would see the short interest spike unwind second over the next few weeks (using your Safend short/cover model). I largely prefer the robo notion with not only SP but WAVX volume correlating well to the Russel 2000. In any event, the short interest does represent pent up or unrealized demand at some point.

* note - I don't actually know if the Series K warrants are still on the table, something I used to track more closely, but at 28 cents, if they haven't moved they will (exp Dec 26th).

wavxmaster, wow,

I find it remarkable that Wave has finally gotten big enough to hire somebody at something other than the VP level.

That was some pretty serious volume at the close,
if I didn't know better it looks like BEWML in the a.m.

yup, typo NIST 800-147 pub date is
April 2011, not 2012

http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-147/NIST-SP800-147-April2011.pdf

alea, my understanding of the kinetics of DoD

procurement/implementation is painfully limited, and then only as it pertains to transportation systems (of the intercontinental ballistic missile variety FWIW) but in any event it seems to me that a Guideline Pub date of April 2012 leading to a memo in Sept 2011 to migrate from should to shall in Jan 2012 represents a blistering pace, one of a war-time footing response to a established-realized-suffered threat variety.

In my limited familiarity with federal code (and yet another far away field think Title 21 CFR) when shoulds migrate to shalls examples are either not given, or more than one option is given.

In 800-147 a TPM is a stated option, with no other option stated.

I've made worse bets than to own a 1.34E-8 piece of that potential for 2 bucks.

et als, I too think
that is some ways 1bn is a hard number to grab. If/when such a price is justifiable to the suitor, mood of the seller and velocity of apparent worth may make the value difficult to freeze in time long enough to consummate.

It's kinda like self-arrest in glacier travel, you've got a short bit to get the job done, after that you just hope you can steer a little.

Macro forces could well force/shape the mood however.

If, as some seem to be looking for, NIST SP 800-147 implementation actually lands at Wave, then justification for t.o. happens shortly thereafter, regardless of SP/mcap.

The "memo" clearly states a transition from should to shall Jan 1 2012, and 800-147 states BIOS security shall have some sort of RTU which may use a TPM.

TTT

Dilution

WAVX is trading at about 5.9x reported ttm sales.

That represents a low, but not the low in the last 52 weeks that being something like 5.7x reported ttm sales in the Aug dip. This is all coming off ratios of 10-15x reported ttm sales during the winter rally.

In early March reported ttm sales will move to ~$37m, that is pretty much a lock. Accepting the fact that current PS multiples represent significant lows for WAVX, a return to multiples of at least 7 after the effects of some 6m shares of dilution percolates through the market is IMO likely. This would make for late Mar SP of something like at least $2.9-4.6 depending on the perception of those rev numbers and anything else occurring between now and the second week of March.

That WAVX is not rallying with the broader market now is in some ways not true as the mktcap is absorbing as much as 6.5m shares of dilution as we speak (Safend and Series K). That’s a $@#load of shares … its actually holding up pretty well.

Is the acquisition of Safend worth it?,yes, I think so.

Was the reckless exec compensation in 2007,2008 leading to Series K (the nepotism/silver-spoon PIPEs) reasonable?, no, I don’t think so.

In the end, what we are currently seeing is well within this for lat Nov 2012 SP

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69111068

24601, perceived in their own est interests,

I find mgmnts perception of self interests to be penny-wise and pound foolish.

They have durably squandered their own equity, taken cash in lieu of shares in building this company, and as a result own a pittance of it.

So while I completely agree they will do what they believe to be in their own best interests, I challenge the gods themselves to augur what that may be.

alea, and the fear for some being
that poodles jump through hoops,
gorillas walk through them.