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How many shares do you own? PM me or email 3powershareholders@gmail.com.
Fellow 3Pow investors - I have sent a letter to our CEO asking for more regular communication with shareholders, which could include things that reporting companies do like 8-k filings, quarterly calls, an internal IR team, or an external IR firm to name a few. I sent my request acting as a representative of the "iHub shareholder group," and will be posting the screenshots (as a reply to this post).
I have not received a reply from Mr Rahman yet, but did receive a reply from 3Power Board Advisor Wolfgang Heinl, whom I CC'd. Heinl cannot comment on my request as he stated it should go to Mr. Rahman which it has, but he also suggested that in asking for transparency, it may be a helpful gesture to be transparent ourselves as to whom is being represented. I see his point, and think it would help bring legitimacy to what we do on this board. I would like to resend my letter with an attached shareholder list that shows our holdings.
If you would like to be included in the "iHub shareholder group," please email 3powershareholders@gmail.com (which goes to me) with your name and the number of PSPW shares. You can PM me the info, just know that I can't PM back so please include your email also to better communicate. Your name or email will not be posted here on the board - it will only be attached to the shareholder list I re-send to Mr. Rahman.
Thank you, and let's keep moving forward here together!
Dave
Those on the sidelines - check this out!
Our Projects vs. Ashta aka the "most successful hydroproject in Albania"
Bottom line: Our projects will have 165% more output (and revenue) for only 5% more cost than Ashta.
The Ashta hydro project is self proclaimed as the "most successful concessionary hydropower project in Albania" (http://www.energji-ashta.al/?id=1). Ashta became operational in 2012, with an installed power of 53 MW, producing 242 KWh annually. Total investment was over 200 million Euro.
Our Shala and the unnamed "shovel ready" projects will have total installed power of 167 MW that will produce almost 643 KWh annually. Total investment will be 210 million Euro (http://www.3power-energy.com/images/announcement-2017.pdf). Note: while we've only been given output of 321 KWh on the main Shala project of 83 MW installed power, we can safely assume that the other 83 MW "shovel ready" project will provide similar output.
What does this comparison tell us? MORE BANG FOR THE BUCK! 165% more electricity to sell than Ashta (643 KWh vs. 242) for only 5% more investment (210M Euro vs. 200). This a HUGE return on investment compared to the "most successful hydro project in Albania" to date!
Apparently I can't do math - it's 165% more, not 265%. Still incredible though!
Our Projects vs. Ashta aka the "most successful hydroproject in Albania"
Bottom line: Our projects will have 265% more output (and revenue) for only 5% more cost than Ashta.
The Ashta hydro project is self proclaimed as the "most successful concessionary hydropower project in Albania" (http://www.energji-ashta.al/?id=1). Ashta became operational in 2012, with an installed power of 53 MW, producing 242 KWh annually. Total investment was over 200 million Euro.
Our Shala and the unnamed "shovel ready" projects will have total installed power of 167 MW that will produce almost 643 KWh annually. Total investment will be 210 million Euro (http://www.3power-energy.com/images/announcement-2017.pdf). Note: while we've only been given output of 321 KWh on the main Shala project of 83 MW installed power, we can safely assume that the other 83 MW "shovel ready" project will provide similar output.
What does this comparison tell us? MORE BANG FOR THE BUCK! 265% more electricity to sell than Ashta (643 KWh vs. 242) for only 5% more investment (210M Euro vs. 200). This a HUGE return on investment compared to the "most successful hydro project in Albania" to date!
You getting filled for your big order?
So what I'm seeing is that we have a member of Albania's parliament on the Shala board or involved as an administrator in some capacity. As part of the 3Power Shala articles of incorporation, it says both her written consent & Sinead Heinl's are required for contract expenses over a certain amount. I guess this bodes well to ensure everything is completed according to the concession agreement...which to my recollection is where we ran into trouble with the first concession agreement. Sounds like ducks in a row to me!
I've already outlined in my posts this morn where the revenue stream will come from, and the financing amounts that are expected, both as outlined by the company. You can read those if you'd like and follow my math.
Good day to you!
I love when you show up! Means there's likely substantial upside to whatever you disagree with IMO :) Financing, when put in place, will cover the EPC contracts. And the 60% ownership is clear. So even 60% of the $40 mil revenue stream is more than the current zero revenue stream.
$24 mil into 274 mil shares is $.8-9 WITHOUT a multiple. So add a multiple to a 32 year revenue stream (35 concession minus 3 years to build), and I see LOTS of upside. Plus whatever other hydro or PV projects are added in the upcoming months & years.
I guess that does make sense. But to do forward earnings, dont you need to know the bottom line, or at least the profit projections? I didn't know you could do that on revenue. Plus I would say it's accurate to use the combined two pojects they mentioned since they're similar in size, and they mentioned the total financing needed to do both.
So in that vein, $40 mil USD into 274 mil shares is .14. Without any multiple and IF the feed-in tariff revenue is mostly profit. I guess it might be mostly profit since Falak has been bankrolling the operating costs and they own most of the shares anyway. The $1.5 mil or whatever in current liabilities can be wiped out quick, plus paying down the financing costs. The Q did mentioned equity and debt financing which is why I was using fully diluted shares just to be conservative.
So even with a super low multiple of 3, my opinion would be the .40 range share price as a base. Take a bigger multiple and it starts getting weird! :)
Yeah I saw that too and was thinking, well it's nice to be in the black this quarter - on an accounting basis at least
Still VERY undervalued here. Let me explain my rationale:
75% of Shala Plc transfer to PSPW has now been completed. 80% of the new Albania Shpk (40 Shala & 40 Falak as we see in the actual Shpk documentation) times the 75% ownership of Shala Plc = 60% ownership of the new project vehicle to PSPW as confirmed in this Q.
I would say that based ONLY on project investment value as a BARE MINIMUM VALUATION, we should have a current share price of at least $.49.
As stated in the newsletter, $246 mil (210 Euro) total invenstment needed for both projects. Let's calculate on FULLY DILUTED shares for the sake of being conservative (even though the 274 mil outstanding shares hasn't changed in months). So 246 / 300 (authorized shares) = .82. Take that times .6 for the percentage that PSPW owns, and we still end up with a current share price of $.49 based on the clear information that's been confirmed.
This is still a PRE-REVENUE VALUATION, meaning what I would CURRENTLY expect our share price to trade at. Even though we have the estimated $20 mil (17 Euro) revenue for ONE project, and another similar sized approved project to estimate from, I do not believe it to be accurate to try to calculate potential EPS and add in a "multiple" to get a share price valuation when we have no idea of the potential bottom line and we have so many variables up in the air. Doing that could result in a wild range of share price valuations that really doesn't help us or potential investors accurately see the value here.
Thoughts anyone?
Here's an opening ceremony Iceberg did for Statkraft last year, the Banja HPP:
http://www.icebergcommunication.com/portfolio/banja-hpp-opening-ceremony/
Would be amazing to get so much fanfare for our projects! That is, if Iceberg is doing more than just the website...
Wow look at that. The WHOIS I used didn't have that info, but I see it now from another source. Maybe we'll finally get some good PR/IR management too? This thingi has been under wraps for too long - time to let the world know!
I don't know about that actually IMO. It's a temporary merger for the project. My gut tells me that unless there's some new info, like confirmed financing or EPC contracts, there won't be a filing yet bc they already told us in the newsletter that the temp merger of the three companies would happen. You know the Dubai Boys - they're pretty much "need to know" until it's time to spill the beans. And hopefully we'll need to know soon!
3Power Shala is active as of yesterday 10/31. There's a document here: http://www.qkr.gov.al/search/search-in-trade-register/search-for-subject/. Put 3Power Shala in the trade name. Download historical extract.
I don't have time to translate and look at it now, but maybe someone on here does?
But in the newsletter it said on Aug 31st the concession was granted, so my thought is by Halloween. However we all know at this point that just because something takes place doesn't necessarily mean they'll tell us about it right away. I would imagine we'll have an update in the next Q coming mid-Nov unless they change course and decide to issue 8-ks (which seems unlikely YET).
My assumption is yes, and then the documents are uploaded. Could be instantaneous, since the last filing shown is from July 20th, and the bank deposit slip shows the 20th also. Which to me means that there's no delay between when they officially file things and when the documents & filings actually appear on the business registry site.
Keep a close eye for 3Power Shala on the Albanian Business Registry: http://www.qkr.gov.al/search/search-in-trade-register/search-for-subject/
If you put Shala Energy in there now you can see all the official documents from over the years. The 2016 annual report has some interesting financial details not included in the 10-k.
3Power Shala is not in there yet, and as long as there's not a delay between when they file and when the documents show up, we should be able to tell when the switch happens.
Wait til we get to the 1M volume days again! It's coming
Cheapies going quick!
Remember the Chinese agreements that were found back in April? Should probably keep an eye on that company to see if anything pops up for financing in the near future. At least considering it's been confirmed that conversations with Chinese firms have happened. PSPW.
Eastern Point Global Holdings Group aka Hunan East Point Global Investment Holdings Development Co
The original link: http://www.hndongdian.com/m/show.asp?showid=43
Just catching up here. Coincidental timing, as I sent our CEO an email 2 days ago asking for some more transparency...my main request was for 8k filings. We shall see when those start arriving. I would venture not until financing agreements have been signed, which sounds sooner rather than later IMO. PSPW
No, sorry. Solar. 100MW of PhotoVoltaic concessions in the pipeline according to the last filings. We are not sure if the two small PV projects referenced in this link have anything to do with the 100MW announced by PSPW, but a price to sell the electricity back is referenced, and that's what I thought was useful to help estimate revenue, assuming all solar concessions end up a go.
http://energjia.al/2017/08/01/increasing-interest-in-solar-power/
Who here is familiar with how PV output is calculated? By my rough conservative estimate, if we actually get the full 100MW of Solar PV plants like mentioned in the last K & Q, and if the 100 Euro per MWh purchase price holds as a precedent for larger projects (the two mentioned at that link are only 2MW), then we could expect around $17 million in annual revenue.
100MW x 4 hours of sunlight a day (some days will be more, some less) x 365 days x 100 euros per MWh = 14.6 million euros or about $17.4 million annually. There may be a coefficient or something that lowers the actual output since sunlight is not just "off" or "on," but I'll have to do more research to confirm.
Yeah there are a couple variables that without some advice on estimatation, like the pricing, make it tough to feel confident in a projection. Maybe we reach out to that Lorenc Gordani? He seems to be in the know and could probably help with some more accurate numbers on pricing, etc in the Balkans. His public email on LinkedIn is info@albaniaenergy.org or I've got a cell and direct email since I'm connected to him. Just throwing this out there since I'm not sure when I'll have time to clearly write some thoughts down and send to him.
I don't have much time these days, but I'm definitely here :)
Also, what would be a conservative estimate of annual or quarterly revenue from just this project? I have no clue how to do the math for an accurate estimate based on the KWH, concession rate etc.
Link to the public agreement document: http://open.data.al/opencorporate/agreements/fitues_shale.pdf
It looks like there's 60 days for any negotiations from the time Shala was notified they were the winning bidder. IMO, we won't hear from the company until that 60 days has passed so things can be finalized - seems to be the way things work around here with so much hush-hush.
If we assume the company was notified at the time this agreement was made public, mid-Nov is my educated guess as to when we'll hear an update. Which coincides nicely with the next Q.
My advice to those on the sidelines still: don't wait until we hear confirmation to get your shares. They are still incredibly cheap right now...but we know that's changing!
One of those "100" trades yesterday was me. I was rounding up my stash and MM's filled me for all but 100...so I painted it!
Gotta hit that ask!
Would be nice if we could form a base about .20-.25 before this goes nuts
Figured it might be worth picking up a few lottery shares at the bottom here :)
"During the current fiscal year, Shala has continued to develop hydro power and solar plant concessions in the Republic of Albania.
In February 2017 the Albanian Government passed a further law enhancing the national consumption of renewable energy by 8% to 38% of nationally consumed electricity. Albania’s rivers are a national natural resource which potentially can provide a capacity of 4,000 MW of which currently only approximately 600 MW are being utilised.
Albania’s Mediterranean climate also provides the perfect environment for Solar PV produced energy.
Shala, through its operating office in Tirana, Albania, has developed concession opportunities of approximately 300 MW hydroelectric and 50 MW of Solar PV plants,. Of these concessions approximately 100 MW are construction (shovel) ready but no construction has yet commenced. We estimate but cannot guarantee that construction will commence by late 2017. A further 100 MW are awaiting final construction permits and the remaining capacity is currently in the planning and permission application phase.
All concessions have been or are being environmentally assessed by the relevant Albanian Authorities and financial modelling indicates average IRR’s of approximately 15%.
Shala is in on-going negotiations with international EPC and O&M providers on the basis of a “design, finance, build and operate” model.
Shala continues to be financially supported by its shareholders, but infrastructure and construction development phase will require substantial additional equity and senior debt. There is no assurance that such financing will be available and if it is not, that would have an adverse effect on the Company’s ability to move into the construction phase."
Oh I never left ;) just haven't made this a priority. But trying to get up to speed now. Glad to "see you" too wakl!
Lol clearly I missed them from Nov. Haven't been here in awhile...
Did I miss these from a few months back or are they new too?
http://www.shalaenergyplc.com/
http://www.shalaenergyshpk.com/
Looks like a step in the right direction. That's about all I can say at the moment :)
Thanks wakl. Im here, just not entirely up to date.
It could be just due to the annual return documents and/or changes in directors info that were filed for 3P Energy Limited (formerly Seawind Energy) in the UK. Didn't show up for Project Services, but the 2 are tied together since they are subs of our co. At least from what I remember.