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BHVN sold PFE the rights to market Vydura in Europe 7 months ago, but kept the U.S. market for BHVN....Now PFE is buying ALL of BHVH....I would love to see Amarin sell to PFE the rights to market Vascepa in the U.S.(or partner with PFE for these rights}...and then potentially have PFE buy out ALL of Amarin after a period of time.
mrmain...After a really bad quarter and in a really bad market, it was easy to give this information an unintended bad meaning.
Marjac...SCOTUS has recently indicated that they are willing to take a position battering the pro-choice majority in the U.S.....Do you really believe that SCOTUS is also willing to expend their political capital by battering the pro generic majority in the U.S....now, when there is talk about changing the structure of the court?
mrmain..."one line that spooked everyone was when they said AT LEAST 12 months of cash."
IMO, They did not mean that Amarin had ONLY 12 months of cash...What They was were actually explaining was..."don't be concerned about the next 12 months...We have more than enough cash"...Sometimes, how you phrase things makes a huge difference.
The two main considerations in investing have always been risk and reward...At this moment in time, risk has become the primary consideration and reward is taking a second place to risk.....This may have affected Denner's apparent decision not to add at the low prices for Amarin in the past few days, but to hold on for better times...even though the prices may be higher then.
ILT..."Everything changed when Amarin refused to persue Rule 60. WHY"
This question has been, and still is, of overwhelmingly critical importance to Amarin and it's shareholders....and management has not seen fit to make any reference to it's decision...Much less to giving an explanation of the reasoning behind the decision....AS IF THE OVERLOOKED FRAUD, OCCURRING DURING THE CASE, WAS/IS NONE OF THE SHAREHOLDERS BUSINESS.
CVD is mainly without symptoms until a crisis occurs....I know this from having had two strokes and two heart attacks personally.
This is why CVD is different from acute injuries or infections and is why price plays such an important role in whether a decision is made to buy a med to reduce CVD.
An approach by Amarin to deal with XS inventory....
Prices of Vascepa should be lowered and tied to a sliding scale dependent on volume...Vascepa was always intended to be a medicine for the masses.
These generic companies need to balance their small profits against the risks of treble damages from infringement suits.
They know they are infringing...and even the courts know they are infringing.
sleven...Except for a paucity of cash currently, I would also add at these low prices.
KIWI...Am I correct in guessing that that you've flipped your Amarin shares and, with that change,you've flipped your sentiments?
The old term "race to the bottom" means that to achieve higher volumes, you need to accept lower margins.
Pfizer had $2 billion in sales of Lipitor in China last year...I'm sure with lower margins.
KM made the correct assumption that upon the approval of Vascepa in China this year, he was going to have to accept lower margins in order to achieve maximum volumes.
sleven..." I was pleased to see that Amarin was able to negotiate effectively with multiple insurance providers."
I agree that KM made the right move...Had the news of this move come out before, it would not have seemed so toxic...and it might have prevented some of the worst of the Q1 C.C. crash....(it did not help that the general market was crashing at the same time)...Now, with the news of the strategy known, the crash might abate and the stock price pick up.
I would like to see KM follow up this program up by offering even lower prices on a sliding scale for greater volumes of distribution...This might serve as a counter to the generic companies' game of offering lower prices to insurance companies for exclusivity for their own multiple company products.(a policy which is anti-competitive and may be running afoul of anti-trust laws)
The efficacy of Vascepa has now been established beyond a reasonable doubt and the future now hinges on PRICE and VOLUME.
Would Amarin be open to offering European countries a sliding scale of prices for Vascepa...dependent on volumes distributed?
duke..."I still can’t understand why AMRN hasn’t filed for an injunction due to irreparable harm caused by generics launch and participation in the piracy of CVD scripts,"
Apparently Amarin has to prove intent to infringe....and generic companies, pharmacies, insurance companies and health plans say infringement is not their fault....I guess the 'obvious' fact that it's happening is due to no ones fault.
Perhaps the H-W law was constructed poorly....The result is that small Pharmas with one patented product are(or will be) a thing of the past.
The only good news from this weeks' sales figures is that Vascepa sales figures have held steady with Generics' sales figures not advancing.--------Rx for Amarin
NO MORE REPS---NO MORE ADDS---NO MORE VICE PRESIDENTS---NO MORE BOARD MEMBERS---Its all about price for now.
Cardiologists should already know about Vascepa...other health care professionals will have to wait.
When Biogen slashed the price of their drug.Aduhelm, it did not save it from the trash heap...because it DOESN'T WORK TO HELP ALZHEIMERS
Vascepa has been proven many times to reduce CVD and is being studied by the Unversity of Wisconcon(Brave study) to even help Alzheimers....so cutting price will have a beneficial effect on drug sales as well as on patients.
HDG...Thanks again for your astute, helpful analyses...
You estimate rebates to payers to be at 50% of WAC at a price of 320....This would set the price to payers at about $160/bottle...in line with the prices Amarin can eventually expect from Europe (and perhaps in the future from China)
With increased volumes resulting from lower prices, Amarin can definitely survive with this scenario until the combo drug is approved to rescue the U.S. market from the 'skinny label'.
HDG...Thanks for this analysis....
"I am not making a prediction but a scenario:"
A.) 2019 Revenue with 2022 chargebacks: 192. Cash as of Dec 31, 2022: 241
B.) “Flat” revenue: 282. Cash as of Dec 31, 2022: 331
C.) 2021 Revenue less by 20% and with 2022 chargebacks: 332. Cash as of Dec 31, 2022: 381"
B. and C. scenarios would be acceptable to Amarin...as it would get them to the point where Europe could be then poised to make some contributions in the domains of inventory management, sales revenues, and cash in 2023
Even scenario A. would be a disappointment, but not a disaster
Amarin picked the absolute worst time for a really bad quarter...The markets are falling off a cliff...In years past, I have had sickening margin calls, requiring me to sell my shares when I absolutely didn't want to...I believe that, with the whole market being down, margin calls are ...necessitating sales on considerations other than the prospective value of shares....I remember buying Ford in 2008 at about $1.00/sh.
If investors had been told of the current strategy for decreasing prices on Vascepa to increase market share... in the face of skinny label competition...it would have hurt...
But it would not have hurt nearly as badly as at it has in this time of general market collapse.
TKE458....thank you for your uplifting post...It makes me want to buy more...I'm still all in and I would buy more if I only had the dry powder to employ.
The current Amarin stock price is on track to rise unless some catastrophe occurs, such as a nuclear war.
KM became CEO in Q3, 2021 and instituted a necessary rebate system in Q4, 2021...Until then, Amarin was like a deer in the headlites....Up to that time, the most pertinent reactions from management to the Du decision were for the COB to sell all the Amarin stock in the Sofinnova fund, where he was managing director...and decline to support EPADI in their appeal....IMO because it would embarrass his friends at Covington.
KM had been appointed CEO only a short time before the EPADI appeal and had little clout to convince Ekman to back the EPADI appeal.
Since he became CEO, KM has been running Amarin again like a business rather than a sinecure.
.
In an way, Judge Du did Amarin a favor...She presided over the conversion of Vascepa to an AG....which was bound to happen anyway due to pricing pressures in ROW.
Now it is incumbent for Amarin to evolve a business model to make Vascepa work as an AG.
Amarin can put into action a simple strategy to make its great drug, Vascepa, have a great future.... CUT PRICES.....CUT OVERHEAD
Kiwi...Statins are really cheap...Many patients, including myself, will prefer a once a day med to 5 meds a day(along with the several other meds that we take daily)....The statin-MD2119 combo will not have patent infringement to contend with and the resulting huge volumes of sales will allow Amarin to charge low prices while still making significant profits.
Biopa...."Stock is a bargain at 1.40. It's basically an option, with no time limit"
I like that thought.
sleven...The gV volumes have stabilized...Health plans selling gV have now all but excluded sales of Vascepa...Vascepa sales are now powered by health plans offering Vascepa, exclusively and no gV...This means that Vascepa volumes will rise...as more health plans agree to pay for Vascepa ,exclusively...in return for the lower prices that Amarin was forced to offer them.
Amarin has essentially turned Vascepa into an AG already and I anticipate a rise in volumes after Q1 and into the future as more health plans accept the lower pricing for Vascepa and put it on exclusive or at least on equal tier as gV.
The high volume of stock transactions indicates one thing... W.S. is anticipating bankruptcy....Amarin is NOT about to go bankrupt(it has $400 million in assets)...It is incumbent on Amarin to act on reducing expenses more and, if necessary, reducing expenses even in Europe...while working to break even in the U.S.
Better still...Amarin has a great product in Vascepa that would be even greater in a BP...Sell the company NOW!
Amarin should now focus on three doable goals
1. restore patent protection in the U.S. by expediting an introduction of a statin-EPA combo drug to the U.S. market
2. increase volume by lowering U.S. prices of Vascepa and/or introducing a low price AG into the U.S....this will help satisfy Amarin's inventory commitments and produce higher sales volumes.
3. lowering expenses by cutting back still further on marketing Vascepa in the U.S.
At this time, Amarin's focus is rightfully on Europe, but it needs to break even in the U.S. to stay afloat...The low stock price negates a secondary offering.
WOW!!...What a difference between HLS Q1 and Amarin Q1 results.
This is an excellent illustration of how a rescue operation by Pfizer could be of help to Vascepa sales....and to Amarin.
PFE: FDA says no to longer course of Pfizer COVID-19 pill(Paxlovid) to address relapse
May 4, 2022
A senior official at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Wednesday that that there is no proof to indicate a longer or repeated treatment course of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) COVID-19 pill will help patients who relapse following the completion of the therapy.....
Perhaps Vascepa's anti-inflammatory effect could be of help in 'long Covid' symptoms....Pfizer could do a study using Vascepa to treat this condition.
One...My main point still stands...Q1 was bad, but the resulting drop in price was the real disaster.
One..."they are chocking on inventory(over $400M). That problem is going to get worse as they have minimum purchase requirements and declining sales."
You're right and this fact may make them go an AG sooner than they really want to.
Q1 was disappointing, but not the disaster that the present price would imply
-45% of health plans are now exclusively selling Vascepa and volume in those plans has stabilized, albeit with lower margins...This % will go up
-Only 10% of volume for Vascepa comes from non-exclusive health plans and the volume of gV is not increasing.
-Amarin can continue to cut U.S. marketing costs and narrow its losses.
-Amarin present cash is more than enough to fund Europe until they can break even there.
-Q1 was bad...I expect that successive quarters will be better.
-Europe will eventually be profitable and the combo drug will be a success.
-Journal articles on Amarin continue to impress..as we await the Mitigate study findings..
A clear, detailed discussion of the work now being done for the development of a combo drug...and the additional work anticipated for its development would be appreciated.
Thus far, all the information that we have we have been informed of is that it will take three years...with no mention of any other details.
What are the future research, development, and regulatory issues to be dealt with for a combo drug?
J.T.'s original plan was for Amarin make a lot of money in the U.S. and to use this cash to GIA in Europe...It was a risky, but a good plan.
He failed to quickly see that the Marine patent loss at the ninth circuit demanded that it was now time to shift gears... it had become necessary for a change in plans.
He would now have to sell Amarin to a BP....and NOT proceed to GIA in Europe.
We (and J.T. also) are now paying a price for his holding on to his dream for too long.
This price is as much a reflection of the W.S. estimate of management, especially after its refusal to join the appeal for fraudulent influence in the decision in the ninth circuit decision, as it is a reflection on Amarin itself .
ILT..."Why not an authorized GV to shake out the Generic's?"
Questions for Amarin for an AG price at $180/month
1.Would generic cos. lower their prices to compete?
2.Would EU and China demand a still lower price?
3.would an increase in volumes make up for the decrease in margins?
I believe its risky, but worth a try...especially if volumes and revenues continue to decrease.
Then, when the combo drug is aproved, the US market will be ready.
Robin..."Amarin needs to launch own brand generics now"
This will happen in 2023 after negotiations with Europe and China have been substantially completed.
lizzy.."After what happened with BIIB I suspect Denner has his hands full with the BS that's going on with the Alzheimer's drug."
The failure of the Alzheimers drug may stimulate interest from a BP to buy out Amarin and to do studies on Vascepa's anti-inflammatory effects in ameliorating Alzheimers.
This would be in the interest of the shareholders, if not in the interests of management.
We need a large study, but Amarin can't spare the cash.
CBB...KM has been with Amarin long enough to speak truth to power.
-Ekman should resign.
-Amarin needs to be sold.