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Processing: bare my thoughts... bear with me...
Saturday morning 2nd cup of coffee
If I'm inaccurate in bullet points believed to be facts...
Please correct me!
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March has expired.
Front month contract focus: April /ngJ7
* Is it less important for the front month's contract price action to stay .20 tucked into Spot$ ?
I would say yes, April's promise to deliver by March 29th expiration, the further out expiration is, the further it can wander from Spot$ ?
After hrs /ng closed @2.799 printing 0.309 over Friday's Spot$
Friday Spot$ fell .11 @2.49
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&cancelstudy=&
use this link to see a longer term Spot$ chart
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA&density=X&cancelstudy=0
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I'm more comfortable holding my 1/4 position short over the weekend now... even if /ng gaps up Sun/Mon
My follow up post will have more thoughts in charts.
I have plans to finish building Dad's cold smoke house project for him today.
Smelt season is only one day and it is today. I have a friend bringing me smelt to smoke for a portion. I need to; pick up racks and screw them to 1x1 frames, set the rack shelve runners, hang the door, place the smoke house and build a fire to test it... while the smelt soak in the brine.
So I need to get on it... L8r
I agree. Trains coming online and a hot summer draining supply, coupled with coal's inefficiency based on natgas's price being so low, could drive natgas's price right through fall's shoulder season.
I'm still leary about getting in here now though
not sure why you split our conversation between 2 boards #msg-128998263 makes things confusing
but here is what I found.
Thanks I googled the first line. Found it...
https://www.investing.com/analysis/will-natural-gas-be-one-of-the-best-trades-of-2017-200176797
chart link https://e64836e21ba218cba599-5f6ff8e305d6142e830d07da1bf3d404.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/content/5689b4f390935b584e9730f7dd808214.jpg?t=1487944474.0411
got chart?
May is currently leading April % gain.
Spot$ https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA&density=X&cancelstudy=0
I'm becoming a firm believer in fully understanding Spot$ predictive moves.
Why it moves... where/when is the bottom.
All components that affect it ~ turn it.
snapshot of 2-23 yesterday's Spot$
short covering causes new long trades till the momentum ends?
Then we leave it to the foreigners for the weekend and... wallah
Normally I would say they are bullish and will drive it up Sunday.
but I'm thinking the brits won't buy it and it will fall into OUR open.
Question is... how high can the foreigners trade it up before the brits say hell no.
If I'm going to make an error I'll err to the short side knowing I'll probably have to add Monday but only if I see the selling.
It would be nice to capture the potential gains from contango but April needs to revisit March's low.
My 1/4 position of dgaz has been green 3 times in the past 2 days
I'm not adding today
I understand the low 6's torment... I could have gone [all-in] many times and back out with substantial gains but every time I thought to do it, I saw myself getting run over by possible short covering to new highs. So I declined.
A new crew is trading /ng futures now in extended hrs and March has expired
wonder if they jack it up from here... doesn't take much volume to move it now so anything goes
wz taking couple days off said bz
Natural gas prices flipped between slight gains and losses Friday amid a cooler weather forecast and light trading ahead of the March futures contract expiration.
Natural gas for March delivery edged up 0.3 cent , or 0.11%, to $2.620 a million British thermal units. The more actively traded April contract ticked up 0.3 cent , or 0.11%, to $2.752 per mmBtu.
"The natural gas market looks like it is struggling to maintain direction as volume and open interest in the expiring March futures contract has thinned dramatically," Tim Evans , an analyst at Citi Futures, wrote in a note.
Temperatures are expected to become more normal for this time of year in the coming weeks. Unusually mild temperatures have limited demand for natural gas. Earlier this week, prices plummeted by nearly 10% amid dimming hopes for cold weather this winter.
Updates to the forecast Friday indicated a shift toward more normal temperatures for this time of year, analysts said. But most don't expect another major cold spell before spring. That could limit any potential rallies until demand for natural gas for power generation picks up.
"This is a market that will require broad-based below-normal weather outlooks if price advances of some 10-15 cents are to develop," Jim Ritterbusch , president of Ritterbusch & Associates , wrote in a client note. "We feel that any meaningful price increase will be heavily contingent upon an upswing in power demand and exports with the approach of the shoulder period."
Write to Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com
up 1min after my post pfft my goodness...just as it gets possible... AGAIN
Cheer leading this thing does me no good!
okay futures~long~traders set you stops... lets see /ng...
tank on a buyer's strike.
Be bold shorts
Shorts need to stop covering... propping this thing up
Keep an eye out for promises of a nickle. But keep an open mind
a nickle can happen overnight with a reverse split.
That's how its done in penny land!
L8rTraders
well yeah if they get squeezed... but maybe, just maybe they know something
like... dilution/distribution towards reverse split.
They're sitting pretty then aren't they.
umm we are still talking about a penny stock right?!
Bottom fish this crap when there is no bid...
sell half @trip2 for free shares... sit and wait
You can't insight a buying riot of small traders expecting to push a penny stock up... there are to many shares for small traders to move the share price.
This only happens when; 1) news: shorts cover 2) big players step in and buy HUGE blocks
* okay I'm going back quiet again waiting for big players to take notice of managements intentions and co products.
gLtrading
The flowers and Robins believed spring was here... It's like starting all over again waiting for spring
re: billion.0001bid shorts wanting to cover? http://otcshortreport.com/?index=IDGC&action=view
If there wasn't so many on the ask the mm's could move everything up a notch.
But that would mean buying up all the 2's to do it...
they're not motivated to do that :-/ until the ratio changes considerably.
If you are looking to get in @.0001 It's not gonna happen today unless the bid goes to 0 nothing will fill unless your # of shares bid... is massive.
Keeping that in mind: ask yourself what it takes to cause a short squeeze
like what happened... just days ago
pure distribution and selling since
selling @.0001 makes shorts happy
I just drove my daughter to school...
because it's snowing again this am and we live out in the sticks "long driveway"
might as well give her a ride if I get in the car
... on the way back
I saw a Robin all puffed/fluffed up, standing in the driveway
and I swear it had a wtf expression on it's face :-/
I'm afraid this is one of those rare years where I'll see them laying in the yard starved to death. Can't get worms from frozen ground.
all the while... daffodils are popping up
crazy weather
nice... U2
hang in there brother... I know it's hard.
fantastic... keep going south you pos
wonder if this model is bought and paid for...
it looks like NY has missing data
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
snapshot of the 8th
purple is dark blue today...
it snowed here in the NW late evening (light blue)
crazy weather pushing Morel mushroom season out again
I was green twice yesterday... waiting to see what futures open repositioning trades do.
I'd hate to add south @ .20 above Spot$ in premarket
only to see futures open short cover to .20 above recent low
lol I've been confident and wrongB4. Best money I've made I was shaking in my boots
sheesh 4+k volume short covering spikes twice today
/ngJ7 1min
4.1+k volume during inventory report
5.6+k volume at the close
what do you make of that
I think its huge and is why I'm not all in and only running a 1/4 position from yesterday
/ng is still green for the day all be it a nasty red followup daily candle from the previous doji
where do you get your confidence
where do you draw the line
not waiting for the last gasp of short cover into the close of futures trading eh
14 mins away from the time of this post
wish it would go more decisive into the close
accelerate south
both contracts print under their inventory report time prices
go dgaz
crap I wasted a day trade stopped out of U@15.16 smh
that didn't last long
should have taken gains @15.60
thanks bud
yes.tightStopOnUgaz question is when...I saw 4k volume contracts on /ngJ7 1min
had to snag ugaz 15 to offset my dgaz... I'll be out of U sometime today
inventory draw forecast -85b...
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
when the time comes 10:30
bottom row 3'rd column "net change"
but look @ the bottom row 4th column "impiled flow" devil is in the details...
make sure it matches