Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Eric,
First of all, don't mean to post anything here that you don't want here since it's your board.
Second, are you not aware of the problems and recalls?
http://www.mountainwireless.com/nokianews.htm
Like I said, over the past several years Nok has had numerous problems. Just because Nok says they've shipped millions of phones, doesn't mean there weren't problems that caused lack of sales, recalls, and returns to Nok. I don't have all the original articles and press releases, but this mentions a few of the details.
Third, don't know what you mean about Korea proprietary interfaces that required Nok to use QCOM chips through Telson. There's nothing proprietary about the Korean system...they use the same QCOM chipsets used in the states. The cellular system uses the same RF freq's and PCS is offset slightly, does not mean the chipset is different. It's the same chipset for both Cellular and PCS systems in Korea and in the states. Yes, some Korean manufacturers deployed IS95B capable products for a short time before 1X, I just talked to my Korean co-worker who used to design phones in Korea and he thought there were thousands of IS95B products out of the millions of total CDMA products. I don't understand, if Nok had a working IS95A chipset and were selling phones in the states, why didn't they use that chipset in Korean phones? Could it be because of all the problems they were having? It's amazing to me how it was widely known through the wireless and financial communities that Nok was struggling with CDMA for years but you get a die-hard Nok fan and suddenly they've only had problems because of a slight misinterpretation of the specs. I was at QCOM when Nok was there looking to buy the handset division, they didn't have to tell us directly it was to help them with their handset development. Every problem they've had seems to have been blamed on the system, or could be corrected with a simple software fix.
I see you're another scrutinizer of QCOM's financials. QCOM was/is pushing a new technology. This required heavy investment on their part in small companies (and business initiatives) that may have not worked out. Many of these have/are not working out. Does not mean CDMA is not? No. So every quarter, like clockwork, QCOM writes down another investment loss. I don't like it because it could have been money in the bank, but did some of these investments help push CDMA, yes. Eventually, they won't have to write down investment losses, it was just a means to an end. If you think that Nok's got more future growth ahead of it than QCOM, you're in for a big shock.
"In regard to yourself. your posts don't seem to remotely reflect this although I must confess I've only scanned a few on Zeev's thread, and scanned ahead here
to a couple more. You might also want to read a few of extelcom's posts to various wireless boards before you make the value judgment you just made."
I don't care what you think, I've actually designed CDMA phones that sold in the marketplace. That were never recalled and that sold millions of units. There are millions of people using products that I worked on or lead and you don't think I have the right to respond to this inaccurate crap? As far as looking for my posts, I've only posted regarding this topic to extelecom, I don't post on the board on a regular basis.
Look, I know enough to say that an MSM has nothing to do with the RF frequency plan, obviously when someone posts such nonsense on a message board as a fact, they're setting themselves up to be corrected. And for extelecom to continue to post something incorrect over and over tells me he's an idiot. I don't care what experience he may have, he's wrong, he started the insults, so I corrected him.
ET You said,
"As far as MSM & Frequencies, if you look at the big picture of many chips in a handset and they all interface than maybe, just maybe you can understand.
Nokias chip is probably designed in a certain way to work with certain other components. If they want to sell handsets in a market like S. Korea that has
strange Freq's they would have to get special chips to work with their CDMA chips."
So Korea's got these special requirements huh? And yet the manufacturers there are currently using the exact same QCOM chipsets that are used in the states. So only Nok's got this issue with the way they design their "special" chipset that wouldn't work anywhere in the world for years, until recently. Again, coming down to a Nok problem. Nok didn't have a phone with their own chipset selling anywhere in the world until the past year or so, but all along they had the chipset and phones ready, just not for RF frequencies that were actually deployed. News flash, Korea uses the same Cellular freq's as in the states, and PCS is offset some, down in freq by 100MHz or so, but they still use the same QCOM chipsets. Tuning the IF frequency for PCS is a matter of some inductor and capacitor changes, not a chipset redesign.
You say maybe it wasn't worth the effort in Korea, IT'S THE SAME CHIPSET AS USED IN THE STATES.
When are you going to stop? You don't know what you are talking about. That's great that you believe Eric, but I've designed the phones, I know what I'm talking about, you don't. Now stop making me try to explain this to you.
Dude, listen...I don't care about GPRS handsets all over the world. In the U.S. where it's toughest to get a phone accepted, how many are there? And that doesn't change the fact that there were/are issues. GPRS is just buying time for the Euro telcos...eventually they're going to be screwed when they actually have to upgrade their systems because they have no money.
And you're still wrong, it had nothing to do with frequency issues. The MSM has nothing to do with the RF frequency plan...I designed CDMA phones for years. That's not what Eric said. You stated it as fact on another board and you were wrong. You told me it was due to frequency issues and it wasn't.
The fact that I've worked in the industry for years does not make me an expert, but it gives me enough experience to reply to your incorrect statement about why Nok used QCOM chips. You've been in telco for 12 years, in what aspect, business? Obviously not the technical side.
Again, do some more research before you post things as fact.
Re: your corner Sprint store. Think about this, for years Nok was releasing statements saying they have CDMA phones ready for market, but you couldn't find them at the stores. You don't think this in an indication of the true story. You could go to Verizon and find Qualcomm/KWC phones, Samsung phones, Mot phones, etc, but there were no Nok phones. But because they had a press statement about it, they must have it right? What's a better indication, what's in the store, or the press? The Verizon sight you showed me had one Nok phone and that's not available where I'm at, meanwhile, KWC and Samsung have several phones each available at both locations. There's a reason for this, because Nok has had and continues to have trouble getting the phones accepted by the labs. Eric may be right, they may have more phones coming out in the coming quarters, that doesn't change the fact they've had many problems.
And one thing you haven't explained, if Nok used QCOM chips in Korea because of the IS95B issue, why didn't they have phones in the U.S. years ago on the IS95A system? You're implying they had the chipset ready, but that it couldn't be used in Korea, so why wasn't the phone accepted in the U.S.?
ET, I worked at QCOM for years. I once had tens of thousands of QCOM shares and at that time I cared about the stock. Also at that time it was always a topic of discussion when Nok was having problems with their CDMA development. Nok was at QCOM on multiple occasions discussing using QCOM chips, buying the old handset division, it was always known they were struggling with CDMA development. Now, I don't own QCOM, it will be a $20 stock or lower soon. I sold at $130 or so average. I don't follow Nok's problems on a regular basis anymore because I don't care about its affect on QCOM's share price.. I read all the articles and learn about things like Nok's misinterpretation of the standard, their SMS issues, Verizon's recalls, and occassionally in my dealings with CDG labs and carriers, I'll hear about problems with various handset makers including Nok. It was a big deal when Nok finally got a phone accepted with Verizon a year and a half or so ago, and then shortly after Verizon announced the SMS issue and the recall. I wasn't aware they had a phone for sale at Verizon because it's not available where I'm at. Beyond that, I don't feel the need to research where the phone is available.
Your original post claimed Nok bought QCOM chips through Telson because of the frequency differences in Korea, I stated this was not the case as it is not. You claimed their are tons of GPRS phones available because you see them on Nok's website. I pointed out that just because they're on Nok's website doesn't mean they've been accepted by carriers. There have been many problems getting GPRS phones on the market, ask Eric about this. I see a few are now available at ATT. I don't see over 10 like you claim are on the market.
My experience in this area seems far more vast than yours, especially when you're posting to people on message boards as if you know the facts, that Nok used QCOM chips in Korea because of the frequency differences.
You're awfully cocky for someone who really doesn't know much about these topics and who gets his information only from a message board. Like I said, just from reading press released the past couple of years I knew more about Nok's issues. Bottom line is, investing in these co's is not wise at the moment, they're going lower. The Euro telco's debt problems are going to kill them, and vendor financing will not help the situation. QCOM is the one company that's maintained decent earnings through the recession and they're best positioned to benefit from wireless growth in the future. I still wouldn't buy the stock, it'll be in the teens within a year.
ET, re: NOK/QCOM
NOK HAD phones kicked out of labs and recalled on multiple occasions within the past two years, this is a fact. So now they HAVE a phone on the market that again, since it is not available in my area, I did not know about. I was correct on the first point, you said they only had a misinterpretation of the standard issue. I was trying to tell you they also had an SMS issue which they did, and you knew nothing about. So again I was only wrong in that I did not know about the phone they're now selling...that doesn't change the fact that I was right about the problems and the recalls.
And now you're getting ridiculous, you just said
"I originally told you:
"Nokia does produce their own IS95 & 1X chips and phones. They may be using Q chips indirectly through Telson, but not in all markets. I could be
wrong about overseas requirements, I will have to do more research. My point is still valid that they do use their own chips, possibly not in all
markets."
Go back to last Thurs or Fri and read your ORIGINAL post, is this what you said? Now you're just lying to make yourself not look bad. You said Nok used QCOM chipsets in Korea because of some of the special frequency requirements, I told you it had nothing to do with the RF frequency used. Then you said you had to do more research, as if you had done any to begin with. You were WRONG and now you're here on this board spinning this around and posting lies. You posted links about why they use QCOM chips through Telson? A link to a guy on a message board who is unsure about it is supposed to be factual information?
And lastly, as I posted yesterday regarding GPRS:
"About GPRS, you provided a link where you pointed out how many models are available in Europe/Asia,
and now you don't know why I mentioned it in my post? Perhaps you are not familiar with the problems
GPRS phones were having because you're not a technical person but you could have read about it in a
number of press releases. Again, I said nothing factually incorrect here. About 1X being the only growth
area right now, let me clarify. If you as an investor, have bought into the GSM/GPRS BS story the
European telcos have fed the public, go ahead and invest away in those businesses. I was using a bit of
sarcasm because as someone who does some DD, I know that the GPRS path is just a "time-buying" path,
and not a profitable one. Meanwhile, 1X is ready now, is an easy and cheap upgrade, and is making co's
money now because it is starting to take off. That's all I meant."
I see some of your posts here, responding to sylvester who said "QCOM owns all CDMA patents." You come back with "QCOM does not own ALL CDMA patents." You have this desire to correct things which aren't meant literally to try to make it look like you know something. No sh!t, someone else has a CDMA patent? This is the last post to you here, I'll post on your Nok board if you actually want to discuss real topics.
Ok extelecom I'm here...I see you're telling eric that I'm posting misinformation on another thread. You've got a lot of nerve for someone who comes to a message board for his information. Let's clear the air, you came and said Nok's only problem (or reason they weren't selling CDMA phones in the U.S.) was misinterpretations of the CDMA standard. I said they also had had an SMS issue which caused Verizon to stop orders. You said Nok ordered chips through Telson because of the frequency differences in Korea, I told you it had nothing to do with the RF frequency. Now ask your expert who's right and who's wrong. The only thing I wasn't sure of is if Nok had a working CDMA chipset because I haven't seen the phones yet, and I admitted I did not know this, but thank you for clearing this up.
Eric, if you read this, please inform extelecom of some of the issues GPRS handset makers had initially, and why it took a while to get them on the market. Also, tell him about some of the differences in SAR requirements etc set by the governments in the U.S. and in Europe. He seems to want to come to you for all his information.
Sure, also it was pointed out here that Nok now is selling a voice only 1X CDMA phone. But it seems like the person who pointed this out thought that the Nok chipset did not support A-GPS. Lack of A-GPS will be a problem soon...this is what I meant by them/others appearing to be one step behind. Also, another positive for QCOM, they own Snaptrack, another royalty income stream.
OT ET,
Then don't bother responding to me. I wasn't having a conversation with you at all when you decided to respond. I simply point out that it is not found in my area and you have to be an f'ing ahole about it. I read your link, so 1X data is not yet supported "but it will be in the next couple of quarters", BREW is not supported, A-GPS is not supported. They've got one voice only 1X phone on the market and I'm proved wrong because I didn't know about it, and that turns into me getting my facts wrong? There are many other points I made in my post to prove you wrong, and many things that I pointed out that you know nothing about. You tried to tell me the other day that NOK was using QCOM chipsets in Korea because of the different frequency requirements, this tells me you know nothing technical about this topic at all, so I feel your LACK OF KNOWLEDGE should stop you from talking about this topic at all. I have not provided any factually incorrect information here at all, only to say I did not know if Nok has a working chipset yet or not. So it comes down to, your whole point is that Nok has a working CDMA chipset, you proved it in your post, now I know, thank you for teaching me so much.
About GPRS, you provided a link where you pointed out how many models are available in Europe/Asia, and now you don't know why I mentioned it in my post. Perhaps you are not familiar with the problems GPRS phones were having because you're not a technical person but you could have read about it in a number of press releases. Again, I said nothing factually incorrect here. About 1X being the only growth area right now, let me clarify. If you as an investor, have bought into the GSM/GPRS BS story the European telcos have fed the public, go ahead and invest away in those businesses. I was using a bit of sarcasm because as someone who does some DD, I know that the GPRS path is just a "time-buying" path, and not a profitable one. Meanwhile, 1X is ready now, is an easy and cheap upgrade, and is making co's money now because it is starting to take off. That's all I meant.
OT HeavyDuty, read this. Is Nok a licensee of QCOM?
http://www.qualcomm.com/press/pr/releases2001/press77.html
OT extelecom, saying that I don't know if Nok has a working chipset or not, but that I have not seen a Nok phone with one in a Verizon store is not getting my facts wrong. I checked the Verizon website again for my area and there is NO Nok phone there. I asked for "by manufacturer" and there is nothing for Nok in my area. And you are incorrect when you say that Nok only had a problem due to "the interpretation of the Standards." That was one of their problems with their 1X chipset hence the reason many labs would not take the phone, I believe Lucent has since said they would work on a software fix on their side so that they could test Nok's phone, however many infrastructure vendors have said they will not provide a patch for Nok's problem. If you would like to provide me a link to Nok's resolution of their problem, I'd be glad to read it. Nok has also in the past year had a problem where their SMS WAS NOT WORKING...this had nothing to do with the interpretation of the standard. It was a software bug that caused Verizon to recall Nok phones and stop all orders. I told you before I work in this field, I in fact had a conference call with one of the CDMA acceptance labs today. I don't claim to know everything about every manufacturer, there are plenty of things that are not shared, but when certain vendors are having problems with equipment, it becomes common knowledge very quickly and no Nok "damage control" press release can change the fact that they've had issues.
Regarding GPRS, you need to distinguish between Europe and the U.S. U.S. standards are much tougher. GPRS did in fact have a hard time getting off the ground everywhere due to transmit issues, SAR problems,battery issues etc. I checked ATT's website and they currently have 1 Nok model and a total of 3 GPRS phones available, far from the many available in Europe. Yes, GPRS can work, but it is a temporary solution and eventually it will migrate to W-CDMA. People are being fooled into buying into this temporary fix, that's the public for you, but people who do their research know what position QCOM is in and where all the European telcos are headed.
Shane, I agree. That was the original intent of W-CDMA. The European telcos thought that was their way around QCOM patents. And they've fought this for years in many courts including in Europe, and QCOM has won every case. Nok and Ericy finally figured out there was no way around QCOM's patents, so Ericy bought QCOM's infrastructure division, and earlier this year, Nok signed an agreement which was the equivalent of them bending over a lab bench. QCOM gets access to their patent portfolio and pays them no royalties, and Nok pays QCOM no matter what version of CDMA is deployed.
I wouldn't doubt they have the engineering talent, in fact, many of QCOM's engineers have left and gone on to other co's to work on CDMA chip development. TI actually bought one of these (I can't recall the name at the moment) a couple of years back and they had some extremely bright people working there. So I wouldn't be surprised to see TI out with something soon BUT the problem for TI and any company is, they're always at least one step behind if not several. Soon there'll be the GPS mandates (E911) as well, which will again favor QCOM's chipset. Also, QCOM has some proprietary interfaces with their MSM, for instance between their IF chipsets and the MSM, which also make it difficult to develop a handset based on a non-QCOM chipset. Either you need a CDMA chipset manufacturer that's also going to support all your other IC's, or you need to make sure all your new IC manufacturers are in sync with what they're developing. It's typically not been just the MSM that QCOM dominates, but other chips as well. Open a Samsung phone and you'll probably find a few different QCOM ASICs. Nok is working on an entirely non-QCOM solution, and they have been for several years now, and they've had multiple phones at Verizon either recalled due to system issues, or that have never made it out of Verizon's labs. I had this discussion with someone here the other day who said NOK now has a working solution...they may or they may not, but if they do, I've not seen it at a Verizon store in my area, nor can I find it on their website. As I told him, just because Nok announces something doesn't mean it's been certified sellable in the U.S. I do think though, and I've seen some Nok presentations regarding CDMA, that with the effort they've put into CDMA develpment, they will have something working shortly.
The "better mouse trap" is called W-CDMA, which European telcos have found through their own court system belongs to QCOM as well. As far as QCOM not being able to meet demand for current chipsets hence the need for another supplier, that's not true. QCOM is not supply constrained. They have in fact at times over the past year told their fabs they will not be using all available lines. QCOM uses multiple fab houses and if the demand was there, they could meet it. The bottom line is, no other chip co. has made a CDMA chipset that would be an easy "drop in" for QCOM's MSM. The system software changes, and the calibration and test is done differently. It's costly enough to develop, manufacture, and test CDMA phones without getting into this problem. And with most co's currently cutting back on costs, it's difficult to undertake this science project with chipsets still filled with bugs that may not make it into the market anytime soon. I agree that eventually, in order for QCOM and CDMA to thrive, other suppliers will be necessary but at the moment, the market is still in its early growth stages is not being limited due to QCOM as the "sole" supplier. One negative, QCOM will definitely have to lower their chipset costs once competition comes in, as they've been taking full advantage of their "monopoly" for years now. And they won't make as much on royalties for chip sales as they would if they sell them themselves. So the QCOM bulls have to bet that eventually, GSM systems are upgraded to W-CDMA, the rest of the world is CDMA2000, and QCOM, earning royalties on every CDMA chipset and CDMA phone sold, is truly the MSFT of the wireless world. I can see this happening, the question is how long it will take.
extelecom, sorry to disagree with your disagreement...take a look. See anything from Nok?
http://www.verizonwireless.com/ics/plsql/pf_start.intro?p_hdr_id=73746976&p_section=EQUIPMENT&am...
I am close to the situation, and you should know that an announcement from Nok about some new phones does not mean they've been accepted by the carrier. Nok's phone/chipset problem are ongoing, they are not "old" and have not been entirely fixed...there was announcement earlier this year about Nok's SMS not working so Verizon stopped selling that Nok phone, and the last one was several months ago regarding how Nok 1X chips handle one of the CDMA channels, I don't remember which...but no matter, Nok has to fix that problem before they get any phones on a U.S network.
As far as "special requirements" in Asia, the RF frequency differences do not require a different or "special" ASIC from QCOM. It's the same MSM in 1X phones here and in Asia.
I'm assuming when you say 1X is not the only growth area, you mean GSM is growing as well. Yes you're right, GSM is evolving into GPRS therefore there is some growth there as well. Not quite as significant as for 1X though, judging by GSM handset makers earnings of late. Last I checked there were very few working GPRS phones on the market, Nok promised them for years as well.
extelecom, "I am pretty sure the only QCOM chipsets being purchased by NOK through Telson are for some of the
Asian Markets that have some strange requirments. As far as CDMA2000 1X, I am pretty sure that NOK
has no phones yet. Bottom line is NOK does make their own chips, they are using QCOm chips in odd ball
markets I believe."
I don't know what you mean by strange requirements. The hardest requirements are by CDMA carriers in the states. That's why NOK isn't selling CDMA phones here, because they continue to have phones kicked out of labs by the carriers. I'm "close" to this situation. And the phones they actually sell overseas use QCOM chipsets, so a QCOM optimist would say that the only successful NOK CDMA phones use QCOM chipsets. Sure NOK's been trying to make a CDMA chipset that works for sometime now, and eventually they'll get one to work, but they haven't yet...that's the reason they don't have a 1X phone on the market. Again, it's my belief that if NOK plans on jumping into the 1X movement, which is currently the only wireless growth area, then they'll be using QCOM chipsets at some point, meaning they may already be developing products with them now.
NOK's bought QCOM IS-95 chipsets through Telson in Korea for sometime now. They said they were going to develop their own 1X chipset, but they said that about the IS-95 chipset as well. My guess is, NOK is now buying 1X chipsets through Telson. Also, MOT announced about a year ago they were going to use QCOM 1X chipsets exclusively and not develop their own. Since all major carriers now want everything 1X, MOT's share, since they developed their own IS-95 chipsets, has gone straight to QCOM. Also, KDDI's been gaining share in Japan. Add it all up and it makes sense that QCOM has gained market share and is increasing guidance.
ajtj, so what's your extended outlook? How far down before we do get a "sizeable" bounce IYO? And then do we head down further before the end of the year or do close the year higher than we are now? By the way, thanks for your input, you seemed to have learned a lot in only 13 months.
The market will rally for the simple reason that "they" want to sell you shares that they've bought cheap over the past several weeks at higher prices. Then they'll convince us that the market was "oversold", "due for a bounce", or that "we may have seen the bottom", and get people believing in the rally. Then they'll crash it again. How many times has this happened over the past 2 years? Is it going to be different this time? Right, this time they crash it, no bounces, and it doesn't come back in our lifetimes. I doubt it, they don't make money that way. Every time it's the same thing, a few hundred Naz points into the rally, they convince us we better not miss out cuz this time the rally may be real, then they kill it again soon after. Same thing will happen this time.
If I hear "Chinese Water Torture" one more time I think I'm going to kill myself <g>. Bring it on already, I'll take it if it'll make the market rally.
Anyone else seeing the equity P/C 1.2. When do we fully load? Wait for Monday or do we rally by the close to get the QQQ's near $25?